Is A Holdout By Brady Coming?

[102 Pat]

Hmmmm, this isn't what I really wanted to read about after a long day of work. I can't see him holding out but wouldn't be too shocked if he did.

 

[Nikolai]

Boy, this whole thing has serious legs. Mike Silver must be proud.

 

[Metaphors]

That's a little different. Being there shows good faith and also gave them an extra month to work on his contract. Only Brady and his agent know how things have gone from there up to this point - although from what's being reported it apparently hasn't gone very well. I laughed at the first column last week that Clayton wrote when it was first suggested and rolled my eyes. But the fact that Graham is reporting that he may actually holdout has me starting to wonder.

But Graham has no additional sources besides Clayton. Clayton made 2 points:
1) Brady and Pats are not close in contract talks.
2) Brady has told Pats management that he wants top dollar.

I am almost positive that both of these points are speculation with no factual basis. Clayton can throw that out there and get away with it because:
a) The Pats and Brady aren't in deep contract negotiations...so by definition aren't close.
b) It is unthinkable that Brady won't end up being in the top 2-3 in contract AAV...meaning top dollar.

As for the holdout possibility, I don't agree with your assessment. You holdout for the offseason sessions when you want to make a statement. Holding out in training camp is serious business since it directly affects the ability of the team to win in the regular season. If Brady wanted to ensure a new deal was done before taking live fire, he would have pushed the issue by staying away from OTA's and mini-camp.

The more likely possibility here is that Kraft has communicated with Brady that a deal will get done as soon as the CBA situation becomes clearer. This would have to be unofficial since an explicit guarantee would get the Pats into trouble with the salary rules. Knowing the rules of the road before doing a deal allows the Pats to maximize Brady's contract value while also maximizing the ability of the Pats to juggle other contracts to field a competitive team. Everyone wins by waiting.

The only downside is the risk taken by Brady around suffering a serious injury. I would be shocked if Kraft and Brady haven't discussed this. I would also be shocked if there isn't a plan to mitigate the risk Brady is taking. It would be a handshake thing, but I think Brady trusts that Kraft wouldn't screw him over.

This narrative that the Pats don't want to pay Brady market value is nonsense. There is no evidence to back it up. Irsay and Kraft are in the same position but have represented it differently to the media. Irsay saying that Manning will be a Colt and will be the highest paid player in the league. Kraft saying that Brady's situation is "complicated" and any conversations are private. In essence, both organizations are trying to put together mega-deals to keep their QB's but are hamstrung by not knowing the rules going forward. Once the rules become clearer, the deals won't be far behind.

 

[Patspsycho]

Boy, this whole thing has serious legs. Mike Silver must be proud.

well said...

 

[Ian]

As for the holdout possibility, I don't agree with your assessment. You holdout for the offseason sessions when you want to make a statement. Holding out in training camp is serious business since it directly affects the ability of the team to win in the regular season. If Brady wanted to ensure a new deal was done before taking live fire, he would have pushed the issue by staying away from OTA's and mini-camp.

Fair enough, and I do partly agree with you - although my feeling is that he was here under the belief that things were in the preliminary stages and did want to start working with the new players and was hoping to keep things quiet. Which clearly he did well, and up until recently things had stayed pretty quiet regarding the negotiations.

The only downside is the risk taken by Brady around suffering a serious injury. I would be shocked if Kraft and Brady haven't discussed this. I would also be shocked if there isn't a plan to mitigate the risk Brady is taking. It would be a handshake thing, but I think Brady trusts that Kraft wouldn't screw him over.

That's actually something that I had a similar conversation with someone else recently. Obviously Brady has already experienced what it was like to have his football mortality come into play, so I'm guessing the thought of playing out the year with no extension with that risk has probably crossed his mind. Does he take the chance and play it out, or does he make absolutely sure he's got a future already in place and wait until a deal is done? That's the only other thing that I guess could obviously play a big factor here. I don't think Kraft would obviously ever do anything to hurt him if something happened - but I'm sure Brady would probably like a little more security by going into the year with this behind him.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...
The only downside is the risk taken by Brady around suffering a serious injury. I would be shocked if Kraft and Brady haven't discussed this. I would also be shocked if there isn't a plan to mitigate the risk Brady is taking. It would be a handshake thing, but I think Brady trusts that Kraft wouldn't screw him over.
...

You make some other good points in a long post and I agree with several of them.

But, I doubt very much that what I quoted above is right. The only ways to "mitigate the risk Brady is taking" are either a signed contract or an insurance policy taken out by the Krafts in lieu of a contract, with Brady as the direct beneficiary in the event of injury. Since the latter is no doubt disallowed by the CBA, that leaves a signed contract.

Brady and Kraft are both big boys and a lot of money is on the table. This has nothing to do with anybody screwing anybody else over and everything to do with a simple equation: if Brady practices or plays without a contract he is taking serious risk. I doubt very much that the Krafts are in the business of handing out "Thanks for the Memories" contracts to anyone, even Tom Brady.

 

[stinkypete]

Wilfork's comments are serving two masters. He's towing the company line by really saying nothing, and he's doing his friend Brady a favor by making comments that add fire to the holdout speculation. It's all he can do when the questions come up.

Brady clearly wants an extension before the season, and it makes sense. He'll be playing with his youngest cast of skill players since 2002. The defense is in rebuilding mode and will likely not be a dominant group. Mankins could hold out until November. Injuries have been mounting. If Brady's numbers drop throwing to inexperienced players, if he misses a couple of games to injury, if the team sees another early playoff exit, then Brady's value is sure to decline. Playing under his current 2010 deal is risky, and he should get paid.

The flip side is, Brady knows he'd ultimately hurt his value if he holds out of camp. Brady needs camp to build rapport with at least two out of the group of Tate, Hernandez, Price and Gonk if Welker is going to miss any time. If he misses camp, fails to learn his new recievers, then he has no options outside of Moss and Edelman. Both Cinci and New York would be able to shut the passing game down.

My point is, a disappointing season diminishes Brady's value and fires perceptions that he is on the decline. Brady knows this, and wants what's his now. But he should know better than to hold out,

 

[Triumph]

This whole thing boils down to the labor dispute.

Kraft loves Brady and wants him in a NE uniform until he retires, but its Owner vs Player and the Owners want to break the players down and have them return to the bargaining table to get a CBA that the Owners feel that is fair.

 

[juxtapoz15]

Can anyone tell me why this article isn't written up as Brady and Manning Contracts looming over there clubs?

seems to me they are both in the same exact seat yet only one of them continues to have these stories written about them. No sources, no quotes, nothing but speculation and hearsay.

Doesn't mean in the end Tom can't holdout but until there is some real evidence of his plans then I don't see why this is being speculated for Tom and not Peyton or at all.

Because Peyton is such a nice guy, and he has those great commercials everyone loves. He would never be the bad guy and holdout.

Unlike that Brady guy with the evil Pats. All he is after is super models, big money and fast cars.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Wilfork's comments are serving two masters. He's towing the company line by really saying nothing, and he's doing his friend Brady a favor by making comments that add fire to the holdout speculation. It's all he can do when the questions come up.

Brady clearly wants an extension before the season, and it makes sense. He'll be playing with his youngest cast of skill players since 2002. The defense is in rebuilding mode and will likely not be a dominant group. Mankins could hold out until November. Injuries have been mounting. If Brady's numbers drop throwing to inexperienced players, if he misses a couple of games to injury, if the team sees another early playoff exit, then Brady's value is sure to decline. Playing under his current 2010 deal is risky, and he should get paid.

The flip side is, Brady knows he'd ultimately hurt his value if he holds out of camp. Brady needs camp to build rapport with at least two out of the group of Tate, Hernandez, Price and Gonk if Welker is going to miss any time. If he misses camp, fails to learn his new recievers, then he has no options outside of Moss and Edelman. Both Cinci and New York would be able to shut the passing game down.

My point is, a disappointing season diminishes Brady's value and fires perceptions that he is on the decline. Brady knows this, and wants what's his now. But he should know better than to hold out,

You might be right about Wilfork's comments, but we'll never know unless he says more.

I doubt that any team that is seriously interested in Brady would be fooled or put off by some sub par numbers for explainable reasons. This isn't a third year QB with two playoff wins trying to convince a team of his value.

The only thing that would realistically hurt his value is serious injury.

I have no idea whether he will or should hold out, but I do know that I would support that decision as a fan.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Graham's piece looks to me like just a summary of other pieces, a wrap-up of all the ongoing speculation. As for Vince, I read his comments as "no way in heck I am getting in between Tom Brady and The Krafts. That's between them." Honestly, I thought it was a remarkably articulate, mature and neutral response. And fair.

C'mon camp. ...

 

[Synovia]

I'm 99.9% positive he believes he should be the highest paid player in the NFL. If the Pats are ******ed and wait until he's a free agent to try to sign him, I don't think he will give them the home town discount he once did when he was younger (unless they win the super bowl). .

Tom Brady has never given a home town discount.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Tom Brady has never given a home town discount.

Actually he did with his first contract extension. Can't believe you didn't know that.

 

[italia44]

Maybe off the thread-topic......but here goes

Does anyone else find Vince Wilfork refreshing,like I do?

He's funny,very intelligent and not caught up in the "look at me,ain't I fine" persona,that permeates today's NFL(see:"Hard Knocks:New Jersey Jesters").

He's fast becoming a team leader....admirable....
because he wants to be a leader on this team.

I feel really comforted that our slew of young players have guys like Vince and Kevin Faulk around as examples of hard work and perseverance,without a lot strum and drang.

.........just my humble opinion.

 

[Rob0729]

I would be shocked if Brady held out. The guy understands what a hit to his image it would be if he did at this point. That is why he doesn't talk about it now since he doesn't want to be considered a whiney rich athlete. Unlike Mankins, Brady has a strong national brand that brings him in millions a year in endorsements, appearances, etc.

He and Don Yee may be ferious at the bargaining table and behind the scenes, but at least until next offseason, we will never see a sign of it publically from Brady including any type of holdout. I don't see it being a winning situation for Brady.

I think ultimately Brady will get his contract. Even if Brady is frustrated, he must know that the Pats are still a bit hamstrung with the 30% rule and the uncertainty of the new CBA. I'm sure the last thing he wants to do is to make him look like the bad guy for not honoring his final year of his contract even if it a training camp holdout.

 

[Rob0729]

Actually he did with his first contract extension. Can't believe you didn't know that.

Actually, his first contract extension, Brady was overpaid for what he had accomplished at the time. His second contract extension you can argue he took a hometown discount, but not as much as everyone seems to make it.

Brady has gotten three contracts from the Pats: His rookie contract, a new contract in 2002 right before the season, and another one in 2005.

 

[signbabybrady]

Graham's piece looks to me like just a summary of other pieces, a wrap-up of all the ongoing speculation. As for Vince, I read his comments as "no way in heck I am getting in between Tom Brady and The Krafts. That's between them." Honestly, I thought it was a remarkably articulate, mature and neutral response. And fair.

C'mon camp. ...

I heard the interview live last week and that was exactly how he said and if my memory serves me correct he was even kind of chuckling as he said like hahaha I am not touching that one that is between them and I will back Tom in whatever he feels is best for him and he said from his experience he understands the business side of it too.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I would be shocked if Brady held out. The guy understands what a hit to his image it would be if he did at this point. That is why he doesn't talk about it now since he doesn't want to be considered a whiney rich athlete. Unlike Mankins, Brady has a strong national brand that brings him in millions a year in endorsements, appearances, etc.

He and Don Yee may be ferious at the bargaining table and behind the scenes, but at least until next offseason, we will never see a sign of it publically from Brady including any type of holdout. I don't see it being a winning situation for Brady.

I think ultimately Brady will get his contract. Even if Brady is frustrated, he must know that the Pats are still a bit hamstrung with the 30% rule and the uncertainty of the new CBA. I'm sure the last thing he wants to do is to make him look like the bad guy for not honoring his final year of his contract even if it a training camp holdout.

I think Brady or those around him will have no trouble spinning a Brady holdout as anything but a sign of a whiny rich athlete.

Brady's branding strategy is unclear to me (which only means that it's 'unclear to me' and not that it's 'bad'), but for now at least he earns about half of what Peyton does from endorsements ($4mm vs. $8mm). Perhaps TB is taking a longer term view of his brand equity or maybe he doesn't like doing commercials. His four primary sponsors are Audi, Movado, Glaceau (Smartwater) and Stetson. Peyton's primary sponsors are Gatorade, Oreo, MasterCard, Nerf, Sony, Reebok, Wheaties and DirecTV.

I have thought for some time that Brady would be foolish to risk injury at Training Camp without a Contract, but didn't say it out here until these stories broke because I didn't want to deal with the Flames...so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he holds out.

As for "not honoring the final year of his contract," a rumored Training Camp holdout is a long ways away from that scenario, and we should only think about crossing that bridge if we come to it, which hopefully we will not.

 

[Miguel]

What kind of contract is possible, though? Doesn't the 30% rule or whatever make his contract in pain to try to do right now?

Not really. The portion of his 2009 cap number that applies in the 30% calculation is rather large.

$5 million salary
$3 million roster bonus
$2.4 million option bonus proration.

That's $10.4 million.
30 of that is $3.12 million.

If the Patriots want to split large cash payouts to Brady between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, they could use a supersede signing bonus like the 49ers did with Patrick Willis.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Not really. The portion of his 2009 cap number that applies in the 30% calculation is rather large.

$5 million salary
$3 million roster bonus
$2.4 million option bonus proration.

That's $10.4 million.
30 of that is $3.12 million.

If the Patriots want to split large cash payouts to Brady between the 2010 and 2011 seasons, they could use a supersede signing bonus like the 49ers did with Patrick Willis.

Thanks, as always, Miguel. Let me tell you how I understand that as a layman: it means that the Pats could pay Brady $10.4 plus $3.12 or $13.52 next year and, in addition to that, they could spread a large signing bonus over two years, constrained, of course, by their overall cap number. Is that right?