Expectations of Hernandez

[Ring 6]

Most seem to expect Hernandez to have a more of a role in 2010 than Gronkowski. I simply have no reason to believe that this will be the case.

As Deus posted, the question is whether Hernandez is the #4 receiver when we have four receivers on the field. First, I would expect us to have five "receivers" on the field whenever we play a 3 WR set, especially on third down. Gronkowski and Faulk should be expected to be competent receivers. It is not clear how often that one these (or Maroney) will be benched for the better option of Hernandez, especially when Welker is on the field.

And when we are in more "normal" sets, Gronkowksi will get lots of action, Hendandez relatively little.

BTW, I am not down on the potential of Hernandez at all. he may be that h-back we have been looking for for years, and we may use him as a #2 or #3 receiver as the colts do with Dallas Clark. Or not.

I dont think Welker affects Hernandez playing time, unless Welker and Edelman together do. There are 2 inside receivers in every formation really.
I don't think the plan is for Hernandez to be covered by a dime corner in a 4 WR set. I think the plan is to create a lineup where he must be covered by a S or LB...i.e. 3 WR,TE formation that we can and will run from as well.
Doesnt make sense to get a receiving TE then only use him to be covered by a corner, that makes him a slow WR. We want him playing TE being covered like a TE and being a very fast TE.
Of course WHERE he runs his route distinguishes that vs a zone.

 

[patsfan-1982]

Aaron Hernandez, 15 rec 220 yards and 1 TD


Rob Gronkowski, 32 rec 410 yards and 5 TD's


Alge Crumpler, 12 rec 130 yards and 1 TD



and that would be a lot more yards rec and TD's then the pats have got out of there core of TE's in a long time



if anyone expects more then that from 2 rookies and a old vet at a position that the pats do not realy use for more then blocking IMO will get let down.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

 

[nabwong]

I see him as a major contributor. Imagine coming out with a 3 TE formation and then splitting AH out. There's just so many possibilities. I just hope we're creative with our playcalling.

 

[Patspsycho]

I dont think Welker affects Hernandez playing time, unless Welker and Edelman together do. There are 2 inside receivers in every formation really.
I don't think the plan is for Hernandez to be covered by a dime corner in a 4 WR set. I think the plan is to create a lineup where he must be covered by a S or LB...i.e. 3 WR,TE formation that we can and will run from as well.
Doesnt make sense to get a receiving TE then only use him to be covered by a corner, that makes him a slow WR. We want him playing TE being covered like a TE and being a very fast TE.
Of course WHERE he runs his route distinguishes that vs a zone.

I would be excited to see him in posse (311) as you say, that way he could set as FB in play action and ghost or release. The possibilities are endless.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I see him as a major contributor. Imagine coming out with a 3 TE formation and then splitting AH out. There's just so many possibilities. I just hope we're creative with our playcalling.

Here's a thought for a five-wide set. . . . Edelman, Welker, Tate, Hernandez, Moss. Imagine just how much havoc they could wreak on opposing Ds with that grouping on the field.

 

[Jared]

Here's a thought for a five-wide set. . . . Edelman, Welker, Tate, Hernandez, Moss. Imagine just how much havoc they could wreak on opposing Ds with that grouping on the field.

From the nickel:

CB1: Jam Moss at the line
FS: Play over moss
SS: Drop into the box, play a short zone on the 2 receiver side
NB: Short zone, 3 receiver side
CB2: Hook zone
LB1: short zone middle/3 receiver side
LB2: Shoot gap
DLx4: Shoot gaps

Ideally you'd like to get pressure with just your down linemen. If I can (which teams with at least one good pass rushing DT and two good DEs have been able to do in recent years) then my second LB stays in the zone originally intended for the SS, and the SS backs off to play deep. Note that this assumes I have coverage LBs on the field.

This is the kind of defense that was killing us late last season when we insisted on throwing over and over rather than just running the damn ball.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

This is the kind of defense that was killing us late last season when we insisted on throwing over and over rather than just running the damn ball.

But that's the beauty of that formation. . . . On any given play, you could have almost any of them (except Moss) run a reverse, or you could take Hernandez off the LOS and move him to a RB/FB position, etc.

 

[Uncle Rico]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

Playing and not getting hurt would definitely be a good start. We've seen way too many rookie injuries over the decade.

I do think this year is different than many recent years, just because there's more opportunity (and need) for rookies to produce. A lot of the Pats teams the past decade have not had a lot of room for rookies.

Plus it's mid-July - -if you can't be optimistic about rookies now, when can you be?

 

[WelshPat]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

It depends on the Rookie. You don't think Detroit has any expectations for Suh this year?

Most rookies drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds are expected to contribute. There are some exceptions, like a team being stacked or someone taking a chance on upside (like the Giants with JPP).

 

[WelshPat]

Here's a thought for a five-wide set. . . . Edelman, Welker, Tate, Hernandez, Moss. Imagine just how much havoc they could wreak on opposing Ds with that grouping on the field.

If they were all running routes, my guess is it would look like this

NFL Videos: Suggs strips Brady

 

[Metaphors]

From the nickel:

CB1: Jam Moss at the line
FS: Play over moss
SS: Drop into the box, play a short zone on the 2 receiver side
NB: Short zone, 3 receiver side
CB2: Hook zone
LB1: short zone middle/3 receiver side
LB2: Shoot gap
DLx4: Shoot gaps

Ideally you'd like to get pressure with just your down linemen. If I can (which teams with at least one good pass rushing DT and two good DEs have been able to do in recent years) then my second LB stays in the zone originally intended for the SS, and the SS backs off to play deep. Note that this assumes I have coverage LBs on the field.

This is the kind of defense that was killing us late last season when we insisted on throwing over and over rather than just running the damn ball.

That defense is stacked inside except against Moss. While that might have worked last year without any speed opposite Moss and TEs that take forever to get open, here is what that would look like this year...

Send everyone out and get Hernandez in space with the SS or LB:
Daren Sproles gets 69 yrd td against Ravens Video by Mikey - MySpace Video

Or max protect and let Tate run by the CB2 and SS:
Brandon Tate touchdown catch | Free Sports Videos - Watch Sports Videos Online | Veoh

The Pats couldn't do either of these things last year so defenses set up shop between the numbers. This year the Pats should be able to threaten deep opposite Moss and work a more effective screen game when teams blitz. Teams won't be able to dedicate 4-5 players to take Moss/Welker out of the game like the Saints did. Brady will be able to use the whole field...which makes the defense have to account for the whole field or risk a big play.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Teams won't be able to dedicate 4-5 players to take Moss/Welker out of the game like the Saints did.

If Edelman had been healthy for that game, I'm thinking it might have turned out much differently.

 

[Kontradiction]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

I expect Gronkowski to haul in somewhere around 700-900 passes with 1,000,000 receiving yards and a million-bajillion touchdowns.

 

[Patspsycho]

From the nickel:

CB1: Jam Moss at the line
FS: Play over moss
SS: Drop into the box, play a short zone on the 2 receiver side
NB: Short zone, 3 receiver side
CB2: Hook zone
LB1: short zone middle/3 receiver side
LB2: Shoot gap
DLx4: Shoot gaps

Ideally you'd like to get pressure with just your down linemen. If I can (which teams with at least one good pass rushing DT and two good DEs have been able to do in recent years) then my second LB stays in the zone originally intended for the SS, and the SS backs off to play deep. Note that this assumes I have coverage LBs on the field.

This is the kind of defense that was killing us late last season when we insisted on throwing over and over rather than just running the damn ball.

The flaw with this scheme is that it leaves Moss in single coverage because the SS has stacked the box and 2CB has elected to stay low (it's unusual for a CB to cover the hook zone in a nickel, you want a FS- think McGowan). Also with both CB's on the line, SS stacking the box (he will telegraph this intent) I would blow this up by calling a 777 or 797 because there is little support in the backfield.

That defense is stacked inside except against Moss. While that might have worked last year without any speed opposite Moss and TEs that take forever to get open, here is what that would look like this year...

Send everyone out and get Hernandez in space with the SS or LB:
Daren Sproles gets 69 yrd td against Ravens Video by Mikey - MySpace Video

Or max protect and let Tate run by the CB2 and SS:
Brandon Tate touchdown catch | Free Sports Videos - Watch Sports Videos Online | Veoh

First scenario is plausible, but not the second. No way you max protect with a 5 WR empty set. That defeats the concept of having a empty set, which is to get rid of the ball quickly.

 

[Calciumee]

I expect Gronkowski to haul in somewhere around 700-900 passes with 1,000,000 receiving yards and a million-bajillion touchdowns.

Is that it?

 

[mgteich]

I'm lazy; maybe soimeone else will look it up. When was the last time our TE's totaled 59 catches and 760 yards as you suggest. And it has been a long time as you suggest, why should we expect Belichick to change his passing offense in this way. The last time I looked, we were one of the best passing teams in the nfl with two areas that could use improvment.
1) We need a solid 2nd outside receiver.
2) We need A tight end that is a red zone threat and is solid as a blocker and a threat accross the middle.

I think that it is great that we drafted both Gronk and Hernandez. But, we have plenty of receivers and two that specialize in catching passes over the middle. It remains to be seen how many catches will be available for the tight end.

For me, in the second half, I expect Welker to be the man over the middle (and Edelman also) and Gronk to be our go-to TE.

Aaron Hernandez, 15 rec 220 yards and 1 TD


Rob Gronkowski, 32 rec 410 yards and 5 TD's


Alge Crumpler, 12 rec 130 yards and 1 TD



and that would be a lot more yards rec and TD's then the pats have got out of there core of TE's in a long time



if anyone expects more then that from 2 rookies and a old vet at a position that the pats do not realy use for more then blocking IMO will get let down.

 

[jmt57]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

My first thought was the same as yours, that our hopes become unrealistic expectations for rookies year after year. Look at last year for example, how much of a buzz there was about Pat Chung back in training camp. In reality most players don't make a meaningful contribution until their second or third season.

This is set up to be the exception to the rule for a couple reasons though. First, there are no tight ends returning from last year's roster. In addition, the only veteran TE is more of a blocker than a receiver at this point in his career. That means the team pretty much has to get some production from one or both of their rookie tight ends. Unlike other rookies they are going to be on the field; there is no way they only get a few snaps and are limited to playing special teams.

Second, there is the injury to Welker. While we are all hopeful he is able to return and play week one, there is the distinct possibility he starts the season on PUP, and an even stronger possibility he will not be 100% when he does return. That opens up more of an opportunity for passes to the tight end - presumably Hernandez.

Perhaps it is a situation where some of the role of the slot receiver is shifted to the tight end. In offenses where the TE has a lot of receptions, that is often how he is actually used, as a slot receiver. Perhaps it is not as big of a shift in offensive philosophy as some of us are making it out to be.

 

[spacecrime]

Every year we get the usual expectations for rookies threads.

How can you possibly have any expectations for a rookie?

If they play and contribute without getting hurt then it was a good season.

I expect Hernandez to play and contribute. I expect that also for McCourty, Spikes, Taylor, Cunningham and essentially-rookies Mackenzie and Tate.

Some will exceed my expectations, some will not, but how can you have no expectations for rookies? You don't expect ANY of them to contribute anything?

RELYing on a rookie is not smart, but expecting one of Price-Tate-Hernandez to emerge as a threat in the passing game is reasonable.

We would all be surprised if NONE of those three stepped up.

None of us KNOW what a rookie will do the coming year. Come to think of it, no one KNOWS what established players will do, either. Chances are our expectations are closer to reality with vets than rookies, but even if you don't think any of them will step up, that is still an expectation.

 

[spacecrime]

Back to Hernandez, most of the expectations are of the stat variety, and I think his most important contributions will not be in the stat column. If you watch Welker highlights, look closely. In many of them you see Stanback pushing a CB out of the play. If you go by stats, Stanback did squat. But he made it possible for some of Welker's YAC.

Hernandez will do the same, only better because he is more of a receiving threat than our third option last year. He will have to be covered as a receiver, but his job most plays will be downfield blocker.