Core defensive roster spots

[mgteich]

We only need 21 players to play defense at most. The rest are special teamers. Even among the 21, many who play lots of special teams.

DEFENSE (25)
DL 6
OLB 4
ILB 3
CB 5 (my minimum in this passing league; cb's do get injured a lot)
S 3
ST 4

My roster has four defensive STers: Woods, McKenzie, Arrington, and Chung. I also have offensive STer's Tate and Aiken.

 

[supafly]

So I take it you didn't give much thought to Breer's latest 53?

FWIW, he has 7 DL (he agrees w/ me, not the other way around )
5 OLB
4 ILB
5 CB
4 S

Total of 25 defensive players. Doesn't give much to the way of special teamers at all.

------------

I'd take away an OLB from his guess (due to Guyton's slight versatility in the sense of emergency only, although none of us want him at OLB), to free up Slater or Aiken, who are both unlikely to make the 53 IMO. There's also the outside possibility that our LS could come from within too, freeing up 1 more 'only ST' spot. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out. FWIW--I am guessing it'll be somewhere between yours (4 ST) and Breer's, in regards to ONLY special teams positions. I will 'guess' at 2.

 

[supafly]

I actually thought that Breer would've elaborated a bit on his special teams predictions, but I didn't see anything in his past 2 'way too early' attempts.

I am guessing that we will see a bit more of the rookies, + guys that didn't play last year like Mckenzie and Tate. It'll be great to see Belichick's take on the final 53, as competition is certainly at a premium.

Regardless, I really enjoy the roster prediction talk. There are so many different options, and everyone will always have a different 53 it seems, but I just love all of the possibilities.

Offense

2 QB
4 RB
6 WR
3 TE
9 OL

24 total

Defense

7 DL
4 ILB
4 OLB
5 CB
4 S

24 total

P, K, LS + 2 primary special team positions = my personal 53

 

[TheComeback]

OFFENSE (25)

QB - Brady, Hoyer

HB - Morris, Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Green-Ellis

WR - Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price, Aiken

TE - Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez

T - Light, Vollmer, LeVoir, Kaczur

G/C - Neal, Koppen, Connolly, Bussey, Larsen

DEFENSE (25)

NT/DT - Wilfork, Brace, Pryor

DE - T. Warren, G. Warren, Wright, Lewis, Deaderick

OLB - Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Murrell, Cunningham

ILB - Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, McKenzie

CB - Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington

S - Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

K - Gostkowski

P - Mesko

LS - Ingram

----------------------------------------------

I have Murrell over Woods, but I'd like to see another linebacker make the roster over Wheatley. That would most likely be Thomas Williams.

Wheatley only makes it here because of the potential he showed as a rookie and the fact that he's now a veteran in the Pats' system. But I think the linebackers could use an extra body after giving so many games away in the 4th quarter.

EDIT: Forgot about Pryor. I put him in over Wheatley, giving the Pats 8 DL and 5 CBs. I still wouldn't mind an extra DB on the roster.

 

[supafly]

OFFENSE (25)

QB - Brady, Hoyer

HB - Morris, Maroney, Taylor, Faulk, Green-Ellis

WR - Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Price, Aiken

TE - Crumpler, Gronkowski, Hernandez

T - Light, Vollmer, LeVoir, Kaczur

G/C - Neal, Koppen, Connolly, Bussey, Larsen

DEFENSE (25)

NT/DT - Wilfork, Brace, Pryor

DE - T. Warren, G. Warren, Wright, Lewis, Deaderick

OLB - Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Murrell, Cunningham

ILB - Mayo, Guyton, Spikes, McKenzie

CB - Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington

S - Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

SPECIAL TEAMS (3)

K - Gostkowski

P - Mesko

LS - Ingram

----------------------------------------------

I have Murrell over Woods, but I'd like to see another linebacker make the roster over Wheatley. That would most likely be Thomas Williams.

Wheatley only makes it here because of the potential he showed as a rookie and the fact that he's now a veteran in the Pats' system. But I think the linebackers could use an extra body after giving so many games away in the 4th quarter.

EDIT: Forgot about Pryor. I put him in over Wheatley, giving the Pats 8 DL and 5 CBs. I still wouldn't mind an extra DB on the roster.

This is why I like the roster threads so much, because there are just so many different options and opinions, none of which are wrong or right.

Some interesting notes:

--you have the 5th RB in BJGE (debatable again this yr) it could even be that BJGE makes it and they still keep 4, thus dropping either Morris or Taylor

--you have 8 DL wheras most have 6, I actually have 7 (at least 1 will go)

--you don't have either Holt or Patten at WR, choosing Aiken instead (although this will help the ST case, it's also debatable of course)

--you have neither Burgess, Woods, nor Crable at OLB (at the very least Burgess sticks, if not one of Woods/Crable) there also could be 5 OLB

--you chose Arrington for ST presence at CB, instead of Wheatley (I actually agree if there's only 5, there could be 6)

--you don't have any 'just ST alone' guys, where I had 2

-------

Again, there's no right or wrong, just pointing out the debates.

I would argue that there certainly will not be 8 DL, that Burgess definately makes it at OLB, and that either Holt or Patten makes it at WR. I will also argue that there will be at least 1 or 2 'ST only' guys.

 

[patriotscpfc]

I'll give you mine:
QB: Brady, Hoyer
RB: Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Green-Ellis
WR: Moss, Welker, Edelman, Tate, Holt, Price, Slater
TE: Gronk, Hernandez, Crumpler
OT: Vollmer, Light, Kaczur, LeVoir
OG/C: Neal, Koppen, Connelly, Larsen, Bussey
25

DE: Warren, Warren, Wright, Lewis,
DT: Wilfork, Brace, Pryor
ILB: Mayo, Guyton, McKenzie, Spikes, Williams
OLB: Burgess, Banta-Cain, Cunningham, Ninkovich,
CB: Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington,
S: Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan

ST: Gostkowski, Mesko, Ingram

For me, I go Slater ahead of Aiken. I go Williams ahead of Woods as he'd have the potential to play FB and that would mean Connelly wouldn't be at risk from injury playing as FB. Lewis ahead of Deaderick. If Welker is PUP'ed, then I take Woods.

 

[supafly]

Good to see some others on board to the 7 DL thought.

T.Warren
Wilfork
Wright
Pryor
Brace
-----these 5 are locks-----

then I have 2 of the next 4:

G.Warren (playing w/ the ones in OTA's)
Lewis (steady player who never misses games)
Deadrick
Experienced vet/cut pickup/JAG

equaling 7 also

 

[patriotscpfc]

I think it's important to have 7.

Ty hasn't been the healthiest guy the last few years. Lewis and Pryor offer something different to Wright.

Gerard Warren is running with the starters, but lets see him in gametime.

And then there is Brace. Lets see what he shows this season.

 

[mgteich]

I have have commented on Breer's 53 in the other thread.
====================================
SPECIAL TEAMS
Do you like his approach of considering special teamers not worthy of discussion?

The reality is that several players will be our starting special teamers and several players will make the team to play special teams.

There is no reason to carry 4 ILB's, 5 OLB's or 4 safeties unless they are top special teamers.

Curiously, Breer has the same defensive special teamers as I listed: Arrington, Woods, McKenzie and McGowan.

DEFENSIVE LINE
I see no reason to carry more the six "pure" defensive linemen, given that Burgess is almost always a lineman and Banta-Cain often is. You seem to want a 7th DL AND a 4th ILB. We certainly don't need both.

CORNERS
You seem to think that Arrington is ready for full-time duty as a corner. I don't.

So I take it you didn't give much thought to Breer's latest 53?

FWIW, he has 7 DL (he agrees w/ me, not the other way around )
5 OLB
4 ILB
5 CB
4 S

Total of 25 defensive players. Doesn't give much to the way of special teamers at all.

------------

I'd take away an OLB from his guess (due to Guyton's slight versatility in the sense of emergency only, although none of us want him at OLB), to free up Slater or Aiken, who are both unlikely to make the 53 IMO. There's also the outside possibility that our LS could come from within too, freeing up 1 more 'only ST' spot. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out. FWIW--I am guessing it'll be somewhere between yours (4 ST) and Breer's, in regards to ONLY special teams positions. I will 'guess' at 2.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I'll give you mine:

CB: Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Arrington,
S: Meriweather, Sanders, Chung, McGowan
.

Too thin at CB. Wheatley sticks or maybe Wheatley instead of Wilhite or Arrington. If Wheatley comes around and plays to his potential this could be a great group.

 

[AzPatsFan]

We only need 21 players to play defense at most. The rest are special teamers. Even among the 21, many who play lots of special teams.

DEFENSE (25)
DL 6
OLB 4
ILB 3
CB 5 (my minimum in this passing league; cb's do get injured a lot)
S 3
ST 4

My roster has four defensive STers: Woods, McKenzie, Arrington, and Chung. I also have offensive STer's Tate and Aiken.

I do not consider Chung and McKenzie STs players and even Woods although a superb ST player can play OLB as well to a degree. The last position goes to a DL.

Aiken is a ST player; and the 6th WR. Tate can be a ST return star, but he will be in the WR mix no deeper than 4th. The day of the ST only player outside of LS, P and K is about over in Foxboro.

You can count them as you wish but it will nominally be
DL 7
OLB 5
ILB 4
CB 5
S 4
ST 1

Of those players there are players who also play ST from the defensive squad as follows;
DL 2 Wright Pryor
OLB 4 Woods, Ninkovich, Crable and Cunningham
ILB 2 Guyton McKenzie
CB 4 Wheately Willhite, McCourty Butler (returner)
S 4 Mcgowan, Chung, Meriwether Sanders

 

[Sciz]

IMO:
Offense: 24 (Welker on PUP, Aiken makes the roster, BJGE is cut)
DL: 7 (5 DEs, 2 NTs)
OLB: 4 (TBC, Nink, Burgess, Cunningham)
ILB: 5 (Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams)
CB: 6 (Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Wheatley, Arrington)
S: 4 (Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan)

That's 53 on the roster, and includes STers like Aiken, Nink, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams, McCourty, Arrington, and McGowan. Is that sufficient?

 

[mgteich]

I agree that Wheatley sticks. However, there is no reason to believe that Wilhite, sometime starter in 2009, is through.

Too thin at CB. Wheatley sticks or maybe Wheatley instead of Wilhite or Arrington. If Wheatley comes around and plays to his potential this could be a great group.

 

[mgteich]

If Welker is on PUP and BJGE off the roster, then I have only one objection to your roster.
=====================
I don't think that Williams is beating out Woods as a special teams player and as a backup linebacker.

I've been following this team for 30 years and I don't ever remember a team with five inside linebackers. Williams will likely be on the Practice Squad again. I think that we only need three ILB's and can carry four if one is a special teamer.

I don't think that we should be releasing Woods without a replacement. We need to replace Thomas as it is.

IMO:
Offense: 24 (Welker on PUP, Aiken makes the roster, BJGE is cut)
DL: 7 (5 DEs, 2 NTs)
OLB: 4 (TBC, Nink, Burgess, Cunningham)
ILB: 5 (Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams)
CB: 6 (Bodden, Butler, McCourty, Wilhite, Wheatley, Arrington)
S: 4 (Meriweather, Chung, Sanders, McGowan)

That's 53 on the roster, and includes STers like Aiken, Nink, Guyton, McKenzie, Williams, McCourty, Arrington, and McGowan. Is that sufficient?

 

[Deus Irae]

I think that we only need three ILB's and can carry four if one is a special teamer.

Mayo is staying. So, McKenzie, Spikes or Guyton... who's getting the axe?

 

[mgteich]

None are necessarily getting the axe. I expect that at least one will be a regular on lots of special teams. I indicated that we NEEDED three ILB's. We can certainly carry four as long as there is special teams help there.

My personal expectation is that Spikes will start, and that Guyton will be a pass-situation and special teams specialist. That could be a fairly solid 3-man rotation.

With regard to McKenzie, I just don't know. He could start. He could be a role player. He could lose his roster spot to Williams or Murrell or Alexander or even Slater.

Mayo is staying. So, McKenzie, Spikes or Guyton... who's getting the axe?

 

[Ring 6]

Good to see some others on board to the 7 DL thought.

T.Warren
Wilfork
Wright
Pryor
Brace
-----these 5 are locks-----

then I have 2 of the next 4:

G.Warren (playing w/ the ones in OTA's)
Lewis (steady player who never misses games)
Deadrick
Experienced vet/cut pickup/JAG

equaling 7 also

I dont know why everyone considers Pryor a lock.
I think he was a surprise to make the team last year, and will be equally a surprise to stick this year when there is more competition for jobs.

 

[Ring 6]

We only need 21 players to play defense at most. The rest are special teamers. Even among the 21, many who play lots of special teams.

DEFENSE (25)
DL 6
OLB 4
ILB 3
CB 5 (my minimum in this passing league; cb's do get injured a lot)
S 3
ST 4

My roster has four defensive STers: Woods, McKenzie, Arrington, and Chung. I also have offensive STer's Tate and Aiken.

We NEED 4 safeites.
Yes one can be a st demon who rarely plays on D, but our special teams essentially require DBs to play some of the positions, and safeties more than corners. We have to have at least 9 DBs, and 6 corners with 3 safeties won't happen.

 

[supafly]

I have have commented on Breer's 53 in the other thread.
====================================
SPECIAL TEAMS
Do you like his approach of considering special teamers not worthy of discussion?

The reality is that several players will be our starting special teamers and several players will make the team to play special teams.

There is no reason to carry 4 ILB's, 5 OLB's or 4 safeties unless they are top special teamers.

Curiously, Breer has the same defensive special teamers as I listed: Arrington, Woods, McKenzie and McGowan.

DEFENSIVE LINE
I see no reason to carry more the six "pure" defensive linemen, given that Burgess is almost always a lineman and Banta-Cain often is. You seem to want a 7th DL AND a 4th ILB. We certainly don't need both.

CORNERS
You seem to think that Arrington is ready for full-time duty as a corner. I don't.

mg, I think some of your questions may be answered in my next post, the one after the post you quoted. FWIW--I certainly agree that IF it comes down to a choice between DL and CB, I'd rather have 6 CB also, like you stated. It's possible the 6th CB will even come from another position that BB sees fit. That's the great thing about 53 man predictor threads, no one is right or wrong, yet all have a different view to some degree.

We'll surely have 4 ILB and 4 S (IMO). Whether we have 6 or 7 DL remains to be seen of course, I will agree that I am going out on a limb by predicting 7, although I was a bit surprised by the number of posters who agree with me.

I am predicting 2 'ST only' players, I believe we have a number of great options with our 1st and 2nd yr starters + vet ST players, that a roster spot is too valuable to waste for more than 2-3 ST only players (besides K,P,LS).
-----

AzPatsFan sees it almost exactly the same way as I stated, and here are some of his respective thoughts on defensive ST:

"You can count them as you wish but it will nominally be
DL 7
OLB 5
ILB 4
CB 5
S 4
ST 1

Of those players there are players who also play ST from the defensive squad as follows;
DL 2 Wright Pryor
OLB 4 Woods, Ninkovich, Crable and Cunningham
ILB 2 Guyton McKenzie
CB 4 Wheately Willhite, McCourty Butler (returner)
S 4 Mcgowan, Chung, Meriwether Sanders "

 

[supafly]

If Welker is on PUP and BJGE off the roster, then I have only one objection to your roster.
=====================
I don't think that Williams is beating out Woods as a special teams player and as a backup linebacker.

I've been following this team for 30 years and I don't ever remember a team with five inside linebackers. Williams will likely be on the Practice Squad again. I think that we only need three ILB's and can carry four if one is a special teamer.

I don't think that we should be releasing Woods without a replacement. We need to replace Thomas as it is.

I think Mayo and Guyton remain the main starters, with Spikes rotated in sufficiently throughout the season on different looks. McKenzie will be the only ILB remaining if and when one of them gets dinged up, or misses a few games. Not to mention that McKenzie is a high rd pick (3rd rd), and isn't going anywhere his first year playing.

you said we can carry 4 IF one is a ST. At least 2, if not 3, can play ST.

----

The exact same scenario goes with safeties. With 2 starting, another coming in on rotational duty or big nickle schemes, that only leaves 1 safety left in case someone goes down or misses a couple games. It's also another position where we'll have almost everyone that can play ST. Actually, all 4 could.
----

That is my reasoning for 4 ILB and 4 S. It allows for obvious starters, rotational guys getting reps, specific schemes such as big nickle, and each position allows for a guy to come off the bench when someone goes down. They also cover ST quite sufficiently.