In a 2004 redraft, where would Welker go?

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah, it's the slow part of the season. . . .

So here's my question: if teams knew then what they know now—that Welker would have one of the most prolific careers in NFL history (#2 in NFL history in all-purpose yards in his first three seasons, the first NFL player with three 110-catch seasons since), where would he be drafted?

As a bonus question—would the Patriots have considered drafting him, even with Brown still on the team?

 

[efin98]

I don't see him getting taken earlier than the early 2nd round, possibly mid 2nd round given how the trend went in that draft with receivers selected.

Being a small sized receiver from a 2nd tier Big 12 team cost him in the draft...Then again looking at where he could have wound up it may have been the best thing that happened...Jacksonville, Tampa, and San Fransico wound up with outright to borderline busts with their selections or if they could have seen the future he could have gone to Detroit

 

[IcyPatriot]

1 - 3 Larry Fitzgerald

1 - 7 Roy Williams

1 - 9 Reggie Williams

1 - 13 Lee Evans

1 - 15 Michael Clayton

1 - 29 Michael Jenkins

1 - 31 Rashaun Woods

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2 - 50 Devery Henderson

2 - 54 Darius Watts

2 - 62 Keary Colbert

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3 - 77 Derrick Hamilton

3 - 78 Bernard Berrian

3 - 82 Devard Darling
http://www.nfl.com/players/devarddarling/profile?id=DAR358587

 

[Kontradiction]

He'd obviously be the second WR taken in the first round, right after Larry Fitzgerald.

 

[patsfan-1982]

in a draft were Reggie Williams, went #9 im sure he would be a top 10 pick if not a top 5

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I don't see him getting taken earlier than the early 2nd round, possibly mid 2nd round given how the trend went in that draft with receivers selected.

Being a small sized receiver from a 2nd tier Big 12 team cost him in the draft...Then again looking at where he could have wound up it may have been the best thing that happened...Jacksonville, Tampa, and San Fransico wound up with outright to borderline busts with their selections or if they could have seen the future he could have gone to Detroit

There are maybe 7 or 8 guys from that 2004 draft that I'd take over Welker. If you're redoing the draft, he'd have to be a first rounder, potentially top 10 pick. And based on need, 3 of the top 10 picks were wide receivers, with 5 in the top 16 picks taken, so he'd definitely be a 1st rounder.

Scout.com did a 2004 draft redo which also omitted Welker from the first round, though I don't know how they could include guys like Bernard Berrian and Julius Jones as first rounders and not Welker.

 

[jays52]

Probably late 1st. Teams would try to get a big split end, say things like "He's just a slot", so called experts would devalue the position, put a 3rd round 'scrappy' grade on him, and NE would end up taking him at the end of the round to everyone's shock. He would go on to be even more biblical than he already is, and the Pats would have smoked Indy in '06.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Meh, it's an impossible question. If teams had *known* that he would go on to be as good as he is, then eh would have been a first round pick, because you take sure things over uncertainties. But that's pretty pointless, isn't it? It removes everything that's difficult about drafting from the equation. But if they'd actually had to project his skill out with any uncertainty, like they do with everyone else, then they would have done exactly what they did: undervalue everything that he does well and overvalue everything that he doesn't have. I'm not sure how much in-between there really is.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Meh, it's an impossible question. If teams had *known* that he would go on to be as good as he is, then eh would have been a first round pick, because you take sure things over uncertainties. But that's pretty pointless, isn't it? It removes everything that's difficult about drafting from the equation. But if they'd actually had to project his skill out with any uncertainty, like they do with everyone else, then they would have done exactly what they did: undervalue everything that he does well and overvalue everything that he doesn't have. I'm not sure how much in-between there really is.

It's still an "impossible" question, I guess, but let me phrase it slightly differently: Assuming that every team had knowledge of every draftee, but the same needs, etc., where do you think he'd have gone?

 

[IcyPatriot]

Welker is a great player ... but let's not forget he now has Brady throwing to him.

Here's a thread from memory lane ... members here were meh about the 2nd rounder.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/51773-pats-eye-welker-reiss.html

 

[Calciumee]

I think that Welker is a HUGE talent, but would we see that if he didn't have Brady throwing to him? Or if he was double teamed EVERY play??

I think he would be a mid to low 2nd rounder, just because you would have to wonder about have an elite QB passing the ball, and another WR that takes the pressure

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Now the real question... in a 2006 re-draft, where does Chad Jackson go?

(Sorry... I would never even raise the question if we weren't getting all happy about that one trade for Welker...)

What's interesting is that we were taking heat for the picks surrendered to pick Welker up at the time, with people saying he's a nifty little slot guy and returner, but not worth what we gave up...

...well, we wouldn't give it up if Miami weren't sticking to their guns and insisting on getting it. Seems like they knew what they had, they knew he always beat the Pats, and they knew they could get a lot for him.

But they knew without a real QB they couldn't get stud production out of him THERE.

Kind of an interesting study in what we think we know as fans, vs. the "you know and I know" negotiation that seems to have taken place re: WW.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think that Welker is a HUGE talent, but would we see that if he didn't have Brady throwing to him?

Ask Matt Cassel.

...well, we wouldn't give it up if Miami weren't sticking to their guns and insisting on getting it. Seems like they knew what they had, they knew he always beat the Pats, and they knew they could get a lot for him.

That's a bit of revisionism.

The LOLphins stuck him with a second-round tender because they felt that (A) $1.35M in salary was what he was worthy of, and/or (B) a second-rounder was more than sufficient compensation.

As soon as they put that second-round tender on him, though, he was as good as gone, as far as the Patriots were concerned. [According to reports back then, Welker was the Patriots' #1 target in free agency, ahead of Thomas, Kyle Brady, Stallworth, etc.]

 

[Calciumee]

Ask Matt Cassel.

I did think that after I posted it

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Yeah, it's the slow part of the season. . . .

So here's my question: if teams knew then what they know now—that Welker would have one of the most prolific careers in NFL history (#2 in NFL history in all-purpose yards in his first three seasons, the first NFL player with three 110-catch seasons since), where would he be drafted?

?

Considering he was signed by the Chargers, look at their 2004 draft. I've included the 2005 pick they got when they drafted and traded Eli Manning..
Phillips Rivers, Merriman*, Olshansky, Nick Kaeding, Hardwick, Shaun Phillips and Welker as (UDFA)

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Welker is a great player ... but let's not forget he now has Brady throwing to him.

Here's a thread from memory lane ... members here were meh about the 2nd rounder.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/51773-pats-eye-welker-reiss.html

That thread is a great read! I wasn't active on this forum at that time, but I was living down here in Florida. Dolphins fans were positively giddy that they got a #2 and a #7 for Wes Welker, and they were convinced that they had pulled one over on Bill Belichick.

 

[Underdog]

I'd say definitely 1st round, possibly as high as #12, but probably more like in the 15-25 range, depending on team needs and how willing a team might be to assume the injury risks of a Bob Sanders or a Tommie Harris.