What does that mean? His choices are:
1. sign now and play 16 games for $3.2 million
2. sign later (before the start of the season) and
play 16 games for about $1 million,
3. sign week 10 and play six games for about $400 thou, or
4. not sign anything, don't play this year, and hope there is
a CBA signed so he will be a FA in 2011 (No CBA means
he will still be a Patriot because dtill he won't have enough
years to be an UFA (does not gain a year of eligibility)
5. Sign a long-term deal with a big bonus, like Vince Wilfork did after receiving the franchise tag, which is what he wants to do.
As I perceive this, the letter informs the player of the rule, not necessarily their intention to revise his compensation, as others have noted. Actually employing the stick would be an end-game move, creating irrevocable bad relations with that player and probably a lot of other players on the team and probably future potential free agents and so forth.
Mankins probably feels like he 'deserves' $7mm a year, and is losing $4mm this year due to the uncapped year rule. Then if the Patriots employ this, he would likely feel like they are stealing another $2mm from him. I know I would be pretty unhappy.
I hope a long-term deal is worked out.
On the likelihood of signing by that date: sure, the letter is designed to encourage that. However, as an agent, I would figure that lots of teams waive the fines when players hold out and eventually re-negotiate. I would figure that the Patriots are pretty unlikely, if good faith negotiations fail to reach a deal both sides accept, to go nuclear, and would likely pay him the full tender and part amicably.
I would guess that he is less likely to sign by June 15.
I would guess that his agent will try to work on a long-term deal, and hope one works out, well past the deadline.
If not, I would guess that the Patriots end up paying him the full tender, whatever the date, after negotiations play out.
I would guess that the Patriots are more likely to save more bonus money for Brady, given the restrictions of the 30% rule and the recent deal for Wilfork.
I'm not certain if the Patriots have to formally re-tender him with a specific amount on June 15 - which could change the dynamics. If that's the case, I would still offer him the $3mm tender. The less-than-$2mm cost is made up for in value of signing Mankins long-term and positive player relationships.
We'll see.
