If with the Raiders pick we are picking in the 10-12 range and end up with Robert Quinn, then he most likely did not grade out as an 'elite' pass rusher. Those guys don't last that long. They have, but they really don't. So if we pick Quinn at around number 4-5, then I'm happy.
Wait, what?
On face value, I completely disagree with this claim. Let's do some research, though. I'll look at the past fifteen years (which is probably the upper extent of seasons accrued by pass-rushers still in the league) to see where the first DE or OLB went in each draft, to determine how high the truly "elite" prospects go, and then look at a handful of the best prospects during that time and and see if the are on the top draft list. We'll see which one of us is correct--I've been wrong before, so we'll find out who's right.
2010 draft: Brandon Graham @ 13 overall. Dominant pass-rusher, but many questions about size and pro position. (JPP and Derrick Morgan went 15 and 16, by comparison.) We'll see how they do.
2009 draft: Technically, Tyson Jackson is a DE, but because he plays in the 34, he's not the kind of edge rusher you're talking about. Nonetheless, I'll list him as a #3 overall pick. The first real pass-rusher was Maybin @ 11 and Orakpo @ 13. Orakpo went to the pro bowl, as did Matthews (26 overall), but Maybin sucked.
2008 draft: Chris Long went #2 overall. Gholston followed at 6 (haha), and Harvey at 8 (ouch). Combined, they have fewer than 15 sacks in two seasons. Terrible.
2007 draft: The late Gaines Adams was a #4 overall pick. Jamaal Anderson went at 8, and then Jarvis Moss at 17. Career underachievers.
2006 draft: Mario Williams goes first overall. Very good career thus far. Kamerion Wimbley comes off the board at 13. Flashed talent, but been inconsistent.
2005 draft: DeMarcus Ware, perhaps the league's most dominant OLB, doesn't even go top ten. The Cowboys luck out at @ 11. Merriman followed a pick later. Erasmus James finally finds a home at 18.
2004 draft: Will Smith (not that one--the Saint!) goes 18 overall. Not a single pass-rusher in the top half of the first round.
2003 draft: Terrel Suggs went 10 overall, and earned the spot. Ty Warren shows up at 13. Not a lot of pass-rushers other than Calvin Pace @ 18, who's put together a solid, if somewhat unremarkable, career.
2002 draft: Julius Peppers claims the #2 spot, and Dwight Freeny comes in at 11. Two of the best in the league for a long, long time.
2001 draft: Justin Smith (4), Andre Carter (7), and Jamal Reynolds (10) show up early on. Smith and Carter are steady vets, but haven't exactly attained elite status.
2000 draft: Courtney Brown emerged as the top dog in the draft, but injuries cut his career short. John Abraham (13) has had several fantastic years.
1999 draft: Jevon Kearse, who still holds the rookie sack record after a decade of play (14.5 his rookie year), went 16 overall. Ebenezer Ekuban went @ 20.
1998 draft: Andre Wadsworth (3) has been completely forgotten by league history, while Grant Wistrom (6) and Greg Ellis (8) have had quite a few solid years.
1997 draft: Peter Boulware (4) was the only high pick, as no other pass-rushers went until 17 and 18. Boulware is the Raven's all time sack leader--good pick.
1996 draft: Simeon Rice (3), Cedric Jones (5), and Regan Upshaw (12) all went high, but only Rice played up to expectations.
Okay, that's 15 years. I think that's a large enough sample to look over. Let me post this first, and then edit with analysis; this little composition box is too cramped to look at all the numbers at once. Just wait patiently . . .
- -=- -
Top 5 pass-rushers: 9 out of 15 (60% of the time).
Top 10 pass-rushers: 10 out of 15 (66.667% of the time).
Top 5 rush linebackers: 1 out of 15 (6.667% of the time).
Top 10 rush linebackers: 3 out of 15 (20% of the time).
Total players surveyed in 15 years: 36.
Dominant players: 9 that I count. Feel free to quibble; I'm just going off gut reaction, not anything quantifiable. Still, this is only 25% of players.
Solid players: 17 by my count. Again, this is pretty arbitrary, so you're welcome to correct me. Less than half of the players listed play up to even moderate expectations.
Let's also consider that in the past two years, no pass-rushers came off the board in the top ten. Significant trend, in my opinion.
One last thought. Some of the best pass-rushers of the decade have been second, third, and fourth round guys. I think there's significantly more value there when considering the bust rate of "elite" pass rushers. Furthermore, when we consider the Patriots Super Bowl teams, only Willie was a top-five pick, and he didn't start his career at OLB. The fact of the matter is, elite OLB prospects generally go in the 10 - 16 range.
I'd welcome more input, though; I am not as familiar with league history as I'd like to be. I'm pretty young (22), and I've only followed football since the year of our first championship, so I'm sure I've overlooked a lot of players and a lot of trends.
