Reiss: Analyzing Burgess' final four games

[Patspsycho]

Where does Derrick Burgess fit? - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

 

[Off The Grid]

Ah! An exceptionally intriguing article. Thanks for rolling this one over here.

***

I am firmly convinced that 99% of the impetus behind Burgess's Late Season Revival came from him reaching that Critical Mass of Repetition where a System finally CLICKS for a player, and have always said so.

That's why it was such an ATROCITY to surrender a 3rd and a 5th for him: It was pretty much a given that he'd need most of the year to start being Productive.

Of course, it helped that Belichick finally concluded that switching Burgess to OLB wasn't working, and redeployed Burgess towards a position of much greater relative comfort.

***

And I really like Reiss's conclusion: Burgess's greatest contribution to the OLB Crew ~ and to the Pass Rush ~ would be to NOT play OLB, but to build on his stellar work, down the stretch, last year, and line up on the Front Line.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I give Reiss credit for doing some additional digging and changing his initial assessment.

The question is, whats the tipping point in production vs cost for the trade? There are two schools of thought. No question his 2009 production was not equal to the cost. However, if he has a 10 sack season (with numerous hurries and game-altering plays mixed in), is it fair to say that the trade will then be "worth it"?

 

[Off The Grid]

I give Reiss credit for doing some additional digging and changing his initial assessment.

The question is, whats the tipping point in production vs cost for the trade? There are two schools of thought. No question his 2009 production was not equal to the cost. However, if he has a 10 sack season (with numerous hurries and game-altering plays mixed in), is it fair to say that the trade will then be "worth it"?

Very good question.

The answer is: No chance in HELL.

We just picked up Burgess for NOTHING. Any one of 32 teams could've signed him.

I'll stipulate that it can at least be argued that it was worth SOMETHING to give him that critical year in learning the system. The potential difference in his impact on our 2010 team IS huge.

 

[Bostonian1962]

Where does Derrick Burgess fit? - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

So we spent a third and fifth round pick for a player that is a situational pass rusher? Oh well.

 

[363839]

So we spent a third and fifth round pick for a player that is a situational pass rusher? Oh well.

Yes but we were and are still desperate for a pass rusher.
Highly unlikely we were going to get that from a 3rd or 5th round rookie anyways. BB's got tons of picks, I mean there wasn't a lot out there.
If DB keeps his game at the level of the last 4 games of 09, I think it will be well worth those picks. Especially considering our strong position for next years draft.

 

[Gwedd]

Yes but we were and are still desperate for a pass rusher.
Highly unlikely we were going to get that from a 3rd or 5th round rookie anyways. BB's got tons of picks, I mean there wasn't a lot out there.
If DB keeps his game at the level of the last 4 games of 09, I think it will be well worth those picks. Especially considering our strong position for next years draft.

Concur. I suspect that Burgess will pick up where he left off and I am looking for very good production from him.

 

[eom]

I love reiss, but he could've saved himself a few hours and checked that stuff out in 2 minutes at profootballfocus --- no, I don't work there.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes but we were and are still desperate for a pass rusher.
Highly unlikely we were going to get that from a 3rd or 5th round rookie anyways. BB's got tons of picks, I mean there wasn't a lot out there.
If DB keeps his game at the level of the last 4 games of 09, I think it will be well worth those picks. Especially considering our strong position for next years draft.

Those 3rd and 5th round rookies would now have a season under their belts, and Burgess would have been available as a pass rushing DE specialist free agent this offseason, if the Raiders didn't cut him last season.

He'll never have been worth those picks.

 

[fair catch fryar]

So we spent a third and fifth round pick for a player that is a situational pass rusher? Oh well.

In 2008 we spent a 3rd and 5th on Crable and Slater respectively, can't say they've really panned out yet either.(still crossing my fingers) For 2010, I'm optimistic for the Pats defense this year, lots of speed/ youth + some veteran leadership including Burgess with a year under his belt in a BB defense. Maybe he'll contribute and maybe not. It's all relative.

 

[efin98]

Those 3rd and 5th round rookies would now have a season under their belts, and Burgess would have been available as a pass rushing DE specialist free agent this offseason, if the Raiders didn't cut him last season.

He'll never have been worth those picks.

How would they now have a season under their belts when they would have just been selected in this past draft?!?!

 

[Patjew]

What the Pats paid for him is pertinent to nothing anymore.

 

[Deus Irae]

How would they now have a season under their belts when they would have just been selected in this past draft?!?!

Pardon me, I meant that they'd have an offseason under their belts and Burgess would be available.

 

[Nathan]

A 3rd and a 5th aren't that bad. Yeah, we got Moss for a 4th (fleecing) and Welker for a 2 and 3 or something but those deals don't happen every year. If you look at the compensation being paid out for aging semi-elite players (Donovan McNabb for a 2) it makes more sense. A 3 and 5 are worth less than a 2, unless you jackpot those picks. I'd rather use a 3rd and a 5th on a guy that can contribute as a situational pass rusher than burn the 3 on a LB that never pans and the 5th on a jack of all trades guy, master of none.

If you're a Super Bowl contender with a glaring weakness (like pass rush was last year) it's better to trade for a known quantity than roll the dice on college players IMO. And that explains the Pats' moves at OLB and CB last year (Banta Cain, Burgess, Bodden, Springs).

 

[WelshPat]

I'd rather use a 3rd and a 5th on a guy that can contribute as a situational pass rusher than burn the 3 on a LB that never pans and the 5th on a jack of all trades guy, master of none.

What happens if they pick a pro bowl player with one of those picks? Or do we just assume that out 3rd round picks will end up doing very little these days?

 

[fair catch fryar]

What happens if they pick a pro bowl player with one of those picks? Or do we just assume that out 3rd round picks will end up doing very little these days?

If you think like that then you'll go crazy. What if Burgess goes on to contribute in every way he can and the Pats win the Superbowl?

 

[Off The Grid]

What happens if they pick a pro bowl player with one of those picks?

Or do we just assume that out 3rd round picks will end up doing very little these days?

EXACTLY. Draft picks are precious commodities, and ~ respectfully submitted ~ far too many fans are oblivious to the incipient mediocrity of Washington, which is a direct result of that "Let's Burn the Draft Picks for aging Veterans!" mentality.

 

[Off The Grid]

What if Burgess goes on to contribute in every way he can and the Pats win the Superbowl?

You completely missed the point:

We could've signed Burgess, this year, without giving up ANY Draft Picks!

 

[Off The Grid]

What the Pats paid for him is pertinent to nothing anymore.

Come again??

We could've drafted OLB Thad Gibson in the 3rd Round, and RB Deji Karim in the 5th.

Hell, considering that they were drafted in the 4th and 6th, we could've traded back for 2 4ths and a 6th, and drafted:

OLB Thad Gibson
RT Bruce Campbell
RB Deji Karim

...and THEN gone ahead and signed Burgess.

NOT Coach Bill's best moment.

 

[fair catch fryar]

You completely missed the point:

We could've signed Burgess, this year, without giving up ANY Draft Picks!

No. You seem to be missing my point. The Pats had a need for a veteran pass-rusher last year. BB thought it was a good idea to trade a 3rd and 5th round to Oakland for Burgess. Did Burgess pan out the way BB had hoped? No. I think BB would be the first one to agree with you. Now they've resigned him for one more year. Obviously BB sees something he likes and thinks Burgess will be a better fit this year.

The fact that they gave up those draft picks last year is an after-thought. If you want to sit there and fret over that and totally negate the fact that BB is the master of accruing future picks then more power to you, but I for one think he's pretty ******* good at what he does.