Stategy: Wining battles vs winning the War.

[AzPatsFan]

How does Bill Belichick choose to win his annual wars for the Lombardi Trophy? Answer that question, and you can see what MUST happen in the Draft.

Belichick fights his annual War like American generals and Admirals chose to fight their wars. With the singular exception of General Washington. They win with Attrition Warfare, deploying more resources, bigger and better equipped armies rather than with cunning tactics. Cunning tactics are for longshots and underdogs; even brilliant under dogs like General Robert E Lee. In the end they lost. They are ground down under the weight of Americans fighting methods of fielding over whelming matériel and manpower resources.

This philosophy is also how Belichick has won, when he has won. His Championship teams have the depth to withstand injuries and simply wear out the opposition, getting stronger the longer the campaign. In the case of the annual Football wars, his teams inevitably get comparatively stronger as less well equipped, less deep teams have gaping holes opened in their Defenses by the inevitable injuries, as the playoffs approach.

Once you recognize that, you realize what Belichick must try to do in the Draft and Free Agency. Acquire more soldiers, than the other guys. They can have their glorious fighters like Stonewall Jackson; he wants another Corps of troops, or another Fleet instead.

Since this is the way he fights, how does he get more soldiers than the other guys?. He must find enough cheaper, good but not great soldiers, to fit in the budget given to him. That means fewer Stars and many more younger able youngsters, and still useful good veterans, who can be paid less. He would rather have the best 65 players on call than others. His top ten might not be as good as yours, but he will wear you down. Indeed his "bend but don't break" Defense is a wear you down approach, not letting you exercise the benefits of your "game breaking" stars.

So when it comes to the Draft Belichick tries to accrue as many selections as he can to build a very deep Team with which to wage Attrition Warfare.

Occasionally his whole team will grow old, so he must do massive reconstruction. Such is the situation he has faced since 2007. He has stripped the old Championship team down, retiring or sending away many of the key cogs, while he undertook a massive Reconstruction. Last seasaon th last of the old players left. Tedy, Rodney, Vrabes and Richard departed.

It is his genius that he has been astute and wise enough to be able to conduct three "double drafts" in a row. While others selected 7 players, or less per year, he had choices of 10, 12, and 14 selections. Instead of 21 selections, he has made 36 selections. Now with starters and prime reserves and good reserves behind them, from defensive Safety to offensive RB, can he even begin to consider adding Impact stars.

His 2 #1s and 2 #2s of 2011 draft will probably be the first in several years devoted to a different approach. He might be setting out finding Impact players then, rather than large numbers of good players.

For example, the weakest squad on the Patriots is the OLB Pass Rush. All the pundits and fans agree. But the reality is, Belichick has two players that have double digit annual sack totals in their histories. Behind them, he has two high draft picks, with ideal triangles, both taken before the end of third round, to back them up; and four more applicants for jobs behind them. Some weakness, it is a gaping hole. Eh, What?

Isn't it wonderful to be a Patriots Fan and know that the Team has been gathering strength for three seasons, for a series of annual SuperBowl quests in the next half dozen seasons? While winning 11, 11, and 10 games the past three years.

Comments?

 

[Sicilian]

"Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack." - Sun Tzu

 

[jeffbiologist]

General Bill won 3 SBs in his first 5 years here with other people's groceries(Willy, Adam, Bruschi,etc) and a different draft strategy. In the last 5 years of trader Bill, where he is responsible for every man on the roster, we havent won again. Fact, not opinion.

 

[Metaphors]

General Bill won 3 SBs in his first 5 years here

Fact

with other people's groceries(Willy, Adam, Bruschi,etc)

Misleading. It was mix of pre-2000 players and Belichick guys. Given the number of FAs brought in for the 2000-2001 seasons alone, it was a substantial mix.

and a different draft strategy.

Opinion. Easily disputed.

In the last 5 years of trader Bill, where he is responsible for every man on the roster,

False. There were still pre-2000 players on the 2005 roster. Faulk is still on the team.

Also misleading since Belichick could have cut anyone from the roster he inherited. By keeping them, he is responsible for them being on the roster through the title years.

we havent won again.

Misleading. If winning the SB is the only measure you are considering, only 4 teams have done it during the timeframe in question. Unless your point is that Indy, NYG, NO and Pitt are the only teams with player acquisition strategies worth emulating, this is a non sequitur.

Fact, not opinion.

Certainly not all fact. The perspective is perfectly legit but declaring your posts to be a recitation of facts doesn't make it so.

 

[Coach42]

I think the only fact you need to look at is the total number of games won since BB has been in charge (a.k.a more than anyone else). While obviously you would like to win the Superbowl every year the last couple of years have not been exactly terrible. 12-4 Lost AFC Championship Game, 16-0 Lost Superbowl, 11-5 Missed Playoffs????, 10-6 Lost Wildcard. Not bad.

Also, somewhere in there (opinions differ exactly where) the Patriots did decide to rebuild. However, they have also been strong enough as an organization to be "rebuilding" and making the playoffs at the same time. That is no small feat when you only have a 53 man roster. Its a real testament to Krafts on down the line.

While the last few years ended in bitter defeat you got to remember to keep perspective. There are few, if any franchises that would not trade their last decade for ours. That does not mean BB is perfect or beyond questioning. Just remember that we have been some pretty lucky fans.

 

[DEVIOUS 1]

I think the only fact you need to look at is the total number of games won since BB has been in charge (a.k.a more than anyone else). While obviously you would like to win the Superbowl every year the last couple of years have not been exactly terrible. 12-4 Lost AFC Championship Game, 16-0 Lost Superbowl, 11-5 Missed Playoffs????, 10-6 Lost Wildcard. Not bad.

Also, somewhere in there (opinions differ exactly where) the Patriots did decide to rebuild. However, they have also been strong enough as an organization to be "rebuilding" and making the playoffs at the same time. That is no small feat when you only have a 53 man roster. Its a real testament to Krafts on down the line.

While the last few years ended in bitter defeat you got to remember to keep perspective. There are few, if any franchises that would not trade their last decade for ours. That does not mean BB is perfect or beyond questioning. Just remember that we have been some pretty lucky fans.

Thats a great job right there Coach. Thats my thoughts on this team to the last sentence.

I laugh to myself when I read the overly critical knuckleheads on this site whining about this and that. I understand the team is not infallible in it's method of team building, and drafting, but the lack of perspective is insane.

ALL 32 teams make mistakes. Not all 32 teams have to deal with constent front office, coaching, and scouting turn over . All while STILL fielding a consistent winner.

Perspective is a wonderful thing. We have not had a season even coming close to below .500 in 9 YEARS!!

Remarkable, really.

 

[Off The Grid]

Isn't it wonderful to be a Patriots Fan and know that the Team has been gathering strength for three seasons, for a series of annual SuperBowl quests in the next half dozen seasons?

I would've thought that I was the only soul in the GALAXY who perceived that, prior to joining this Crew.

Brilliant post. One gets the impression that such is typical of your work.

I would recommend ~ if you're interested ~ that you check out the work of Generals Nathanael Greene and Daniel Morgan: Washington was a great man, and a tremendous Patriot, but a General of very dubious tactical skill, who nearly got us annihilated, not once, but twice: At New York and again at Brandywine. True, he was facing an enemy of greatly superior resources, but then so was Frederick the Great, whose wonderous and brilliant tactical lessons were ~ in the 1770's ~ very fresh, indeed.

It is to a degree that most would find shocking that we owe our Independence, and the birth and flourishing of our Great Quest, to the utterly magnificent Guerrilla Campaign of General Nathanael Greene, and the exquisite genius of General Daniel Morgan, who ~ 2000 years later ~ managed to recreate nothing less than the astonishing Double Envelopment of Cannae, at the Battle of Cowpens.

Speaking of "astonishing": Your posts are amazing, my good man.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

A winning strategy as the OP notes includes astute trades (high reward/low risk) like Dillon, Moss and Welker who all turned out to be playmakers. More recently, in the draft of 07 and specifically in the FAs/trades made last offseason, BB's moves have not panned out. When your hand gets cold, the results are difficult to hide.

This off season was a timeout from costly free agent moves. It was time to get the core of the future established -- so the re-signings of the Pats free agents like Wilfork, TBC, Bodden and others. The message we are willing to pay our own -- now these empowered players can own the result, become locker room and field leaders, focus on performance. As a direct consequence, BB eschewed the opportunity to trade for Boldin (with a new contract) or Holmes or Marshall. He refused to draft high maintenance players -- even potentially high impact players like Dez Bryant.

So this year is one of re-establishing the identity of the Pats team in terms of physicality and character. The betting is on a solid locker room full of players who will pay singular attention to just "doing their jobs". The question is whether the last two drafts yield more than just role players -- whether there are enough meaningful difference makers in the group. Players like Vollmer and Butler and Edelman may fit that description as may Gronk, Hernandez, McCourty and Spikes. Success in 2010 turns on that answer.

The 2011 draft choices are great chips to continually strenghten the Pats. A coach/GM with security of tenure can act in ways that other GMs cannot. But every year counts. Brady is not going to be here forever. And BB certainly wants to end his tenure (as and when) on a high note.

 

[SeauOUCH]

I laugh to myself when I read the overly critical knuckleheads on this site whining about this and that. I understand the team is not infallible in it's method of team building, and drafting, but the lack of perspective is insane.

All the people on this site that ***** in moan about this team are more than likely just like my girlfriend (a fan since 2007! ). She is convinced that last year was a horrible year.

 

[DEVIOUS 1]

All the people on this site that ***** in moan about this team are more than likely just like my girlfriend (a fan since 2007! ). She is convinced that last year was a horrible year.

The Patriots are a victim of thier own success. They have had the unfortunate ability to be successful for the last 9 years. So, as they have soared, our expectations soar with it. I assume it's human nature. In full diclosure, I find myself sometimes stewing in discontent, on days the ball doesn't bounce the Patriots way on certain gamedays.

But, all it takes is a few hours to step back, even sleep on it, before I realize that this is the same organization that took a large group of NFL castoff's in 2001, and turned them into NFL champions. Took a decimated secondary to the championship in 2004. And was a break here or there in 2007 from Football imortality. Franchise QB goes down the next year? The vultures circled the wagons, but all we did was win 11 games going forward. Turning a 7th round QB, that alot of the Kneejerks wanted cut in the pre-season, into a high 2nd round pick. With the irony being, the Kneejerks NOW complaining that we "only got a 2nd!! What is BB doing!!!!!!".

BB's building a consistent winner. And doing it, STILL, by making mistakes along the way.

Nobody is perfect. The Kneejerks live day to day, with hindsight as their secret weapon. If we all had the gift of hindsight before we made any decision mistakes would never be made. The world doesn't work like that.

We SHOULD only make judgements on a coach and an organization based on track record.

9 Winning Seasons. 4 Super Bowl Appearences, 3 championships. 1 undefeated regular season.

There are fans of at the least 30 different teams that would (probably) kill for what we live right now.

Yet if I defend my team, i get called a "Homer"? I'm good with that. I can be objective too, watch......THE TEAM IS NOT INFALLIBLE, BELICHECK MAKES MISTAKES.

Yet 9 straight winning seasons, despite Pioli, Weis, Crennel in KC, Dimitroff in ATL, McDaniels in DEN. Turnover, turnover, turnover. Even the NFL wants whats we have.

Coaching turnover
Exectutive turnover
Scouting turnover
Roster turnover

While everything changes around BB the only constant is WINS!!

Question BB? Not I. In a results based buisness, he gives us what we want.

It's just a shame thats not enough for some people.

 

[Off The Grid]

The Patriots are a victim of thier own success. They have had the unfortunate ability to be successful for the last 9 years. So, as they have soared, our expectations soar with it. I assume it's human nature. In full diclosure, I find myself sometimes stewing in discontent, on days the ball doesn't bounce the Patriots way on certain gamedays.

But, all it takes is a few hours to step back, even sleep on it, before I realize that this is the same organization that took a large group of NFL castoff's in 2001, and turned them into NFL champions. Took a decimated secondary to the championship in 2004. And was a break here or there in 2007 from Football imortality. Franchise QB goes down the next year? The vultures circled the wagons, but all we did was win 11 games going forward. Turning a 7th round QB, that alot of the Kneejerks wanted cut in the pre-season, into a high 2nd round pick. With the irony being, the Kneejerks NOW complaining that we "only got a 2nd!! What is BB doing!!!!!!".

BB's building a consistent winner. And doing it, STILL, by making mistakes along the way.

Nobody is perfect. The Kneejerks live day to day, with hindsight as their secret weapon. If we all had the gift of hindsight before we made any decision mistakes would never be made. The world doesn't work like that.

We SHOULD only make judgements on a coach and an organization based on track record.

9 Winning Seasons. 4 Super Bowl Appearences, 3 championships. 1 undefeated regular season.

There are fans of at the least 30 different teams that would (probably) kill for what we live right now.

Yet if I defend my team, i get called a "Homer"? I'm good with that. I can be objective too, watch......THE TEAM IS NOT INFALLIBLE, BELICHECK MAKES MISTAKES.

Yet 9 straight winning seasons, despite Pioli, Weis, Crennel in KC, Dimitroff in ATL, McDaniels in DEN. Turnover, turnover, turnover. Even the NFL wants whats we have.

Coaching turnover
Exectutive turnover
Scouting turnover
Roster turnover

While everything changes around BB the only constant is WINS!!

Question BB? Not I. In a results based buisness, he gives us what we want.

It's just a shame thats not enough for some people.

:rocker: BRAVO!!! :rocker:

 

[Marqui]

I approve of this thread.

 

[AzPatsFan]

There are plenty of Generals whose success is measured in just enduring, and staying in the Field, like Washington did. Someone in such a situation in this century, is General Giap of North Vietnam.

They both took tremendous casualties, lost every battle along the way until... they won the war.

But Washington was not as ruthless and cynical as Giap. Giap fought Tet to let his opponent's domestic Fifth columnists have a field day. And as a one-time and extremely expensive opportunity to murder and assasinate lots of opposition in the Southern government. He also cynically used it as a way to have Amercan warpower purge any future Southern Vietnamese Marxist opposition to a North dominated post war dictatorship.

But I still give credit to Washington. Until the end, he had no outside foreign help to counter the largest military power, in the world. Giap all along had the materiel and economic support of 1/3 of the World's economies, the so-called "People's democracies" of the East bloc, duckspeak for utter totalitarian dictatorships.

Some of his subordinates won occasional battles, such as at Saratoga and Cowpens. But these were as much battles won by the hubris and stupidity of their oppopnents, as anything they did.

But this was meant more as a discussion of Belichick's overall warfare Strategy, rather than generalship. Belichick believes in the dictum that "God fights on the side of the heaviest artillery". His wisdom lies in finding ways to make sure he has an outsized quantity of such heavy artillery. He also believes in tactical generalship that emphasizes attrition warfare.

Read-and-react Defenses that he utilizes, might not have gaudy Defensive statistics and spectacular plays, but they seldom give up cheap scores. Every year, his Points Against numbers lead his team's expected defensive position. This past season is typical. A Defense that rated 11th overall, and was downright mediocre against the run, ranking 16th, still yielded only the fourth highest Points Allowed.

On Offense everyone complains that they are not spectacular and worry about the loss of Watson and Welker. I don't. The Offense finished second in the League in the statistics race, despite its "problems".

The Offensive line has three former probowlers on it, only one other who has any age, and they have found their future probowl type LOT, and have many other young candidates grooming. The RBs corps is aged, but is full of proven performers. RBBC works. The TE corps has been rebuilt, with a pair of youngsters, and a former great veteran to teach them, to be pros.

At WR, there are a HOF and a Probowler along with two high drafted rookies, and a 7th round QB-conversion "find". All but the HOFer are young. To which Belichick has added a another HOF WR who is near the end, but can give a year's service while the youngsters mature.

Even at QB they have a HOF and a come from nowhere fellow, who drove away all contenders, and grabbed the backop job despite being an UDFA and from a Div I A school. From what I've seen, he plays his QB between his ears, where all the good ones do.

What do you think the Colts or Saints records would be, if they lost their QB in the first quarter of the first game of the season? The Pats did and still won 11 games.

Unlike others, Belichcick is going about his job and they can't see that precise method is being employed once again, while still winning.

The media hacks write of weaknesses? What weaknesses?

I quite frankly don't think much of a "weakness" that has a ILB corps composed of three high draft picks, a DROY, and a starter UDFA "find", that is perhaps faster than all others inside, and has a perfect triangle to boot.

Nor do I think much of a "weakness" that has a starter at WOLB and SOLB that both have multiple 10+ sack seasons in their respective resumes. Nor is the depth bad, with two high draft picks of ideal triangle size being groomed as successors. The last of the depth has led the Team, or damn near, in ST tackles every year he has been on the team.

You can't carry much more than 9 LBs en toto, and we have just described 9 such, and still have a few others in the competition. As far as I am concerned, the only question is when this crew will fully mature?

One other poster said Bill won with some hand me down quality from others, to which he added a lot of pieces. I still recall that Bledsoe, McGinnest, Bruschi, Armstrong and Law were drafted by his previous regime in New England. Outside of Faulk and Milloy, who came from the post-Tuna regime?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

General Bill won 3 SBs in his first 5 years here with other people's groceries(Willy, Adam, Bruschi,etc) and a different draft strategy. In the last 5 years of trader Bill, where he is responsible for every man on the roster, we havent won again. Fact, not opinion.

Without Brady, BB is just another over promoted DC. And BB did draft Brady. That is a fact!

Take away Brady and BB is barely a .500 coach.

 

[State]

Without Brady, BB is just another over promoted DC. And BB did draft Brady. That is a fact!

Take away Brady and BB is barely a .500 coach.

Yep. It's Cleveland all over again.

BTW, I love reading Ochmed's stuff. We should allow a thread with only PatChick and he going back and forth.

I take it you were less than thrilled with this draft? Solid but not spectacular?

 

[AzPatsFan]

Without Brady, BB is just another over promoted DC. And BB did draft Brady. That is a fact!

Take away Brady and BB is barely a .500 coach.

But the year he didn't have Brady, Belichick still went 11-5. It must be the "new math" they taught you; but 11-5 is not .500 percentage ball.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Fans will always be disappointed that BillBelichick never drafts an OLB pass rusher high Why? Because he doesn't ever want to gamble with his first round selection. He has produced nary a single first round bust. Not every one was a Pro-Bowler, but they all played.

Selecting a DE--> to OLB is a projection conversion and no sure thing. Only in the event he had a top five pick, might he find a DE--> OLB conversion who is a virtual certainty to make good. In that high draft position there will be other higher percentage choices to be good players, so he might well still select one of them instead.

Projected conversions are always iffy compared to players at other positions.

 

[Off The Grid]

There are plenty of Generals whose success is measured in just enduring, and staying in the Field, like Washington did.

Some of his subordinates won occasional battles, such as at Saratoga and Cowpens. But these were as much battles won by the hubris and stupidity of their oppopnents, as anything they did.

General Washington certainly deserves credit for surviving ~ and he had great courage and perseverance ~ but the facts of the matter are too dramatic to ignore: It was Washington who on more than one occasion ~ most notoriously at the Battle of Long Island ~ was saved from complete annihilation by the hubris and stupidity of his opponents; or their sloth and timidity, if you will.

In stark contrast, General Nathanael Greene ~ at the 11th hour, when the British appeared to've taken complete command of the War in the Autumn of 1780, following the disastrous Battle of Camden ~ forged an intricate Campaign of such EPIC brilliance and ingenuity that ~ with immeasurable help from the magnificent Tactics and planning of Generals Daniel Morgan and William Campbell and their men ~ reversed the entire Course of the War...and drove Cornwallis out of the Carolinas...towards his destiny at Yorktown, where Washington merely applied the Coup de Grace that others had made possible.