The Front Seven - 2009 and 2010 as of now

[mgteich]

DEFENSIVE LINE (much improved)

We've added lots of potential help to the five players returning from 2009. We've lost Green and we've added two solid veterans in Lewis and Warren. We've also added Deaderick who could get lots of reps at DE.

I think that Belichick understands the void left by Seymour and Green.

Who will make the roster is very up in the air, as is the depth chart. None of the backups should feel that they are guaranteed a roster spot. I expect us to carry seven defensive linemen. We WILL improve our run defense and short yardage defense!

The BOTTOM LINE is that there is lots of work to do, but the talent and the pieces are there to make this a top defensive line.
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INSIDE LINEBACKERS (much improved)

Many idenitifed this as a weakness before the draft. We're fine now. We have two veteran starters. Mayo should be healthy and stronger. And we have two youngsters in Spikes and McKenzie who should compete for reps. As long as one of them is an OK backup this year, we are better off than in 2009.
======================================================

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS AND PASSRUSHERS (worse for now)

Could we really be worse off compared to 2009?

I suppose the improvements at DL, ILB and CB could make this hole a bit smaller. Less will be required from this sad group, our weak link.

As of now, we bring back Banta-Cain, Woods, Thomas and Ninkovich from 2009. We have free agents Murrell. Crable is back. And yes, we drafted Cunningham, but I'm not sure how much we should expect from a first year patriot linebacker.

No matter how we slice and dice, this is the worst set of passrushers and outside linebackers competing for a playoff team.

At minimum, we need to bring back Burgess or a veteran replacement. At best, we will bring back Burgess AND trade for an outside linebacker.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

What outside lb is available... ?? That is the key to the 2010 the outside lb and if Tate and Pryce can contribute in the passing game..

 

[Patspsycho]

What outside lb is available... ?? That is the key to the 2010 the outside lb and if Tate and Pryce can contribute in the passing game..

Please don't tell me you're serious.

 

[mgteich]

1) I don't know who is available for trade at OLB. We have only one missing piece. Belichick may or may not know who is available for a 2010 2nd or even our own 1st. I think that we really are only one player away from being an elite team over the next couple of years.

2) I must say that I am not worried about how much production we get out of our #4 and #5 receiver. We now have three tight end threats to add to Moss, Holt and Edelman. The issues on the offense are schemes and playcalling. Hopefully O'Brien has learned a lot from last year's mistakes.

What outside lb is available... ?? That is the key to the 2010 the outside lb and if Tate and Pryce can contribute in the passing game..

 

[Ring 6]

DEFENSIVE LINE (much improved)

We've added lots of potential help to the five players returning from 2009. We've lost Green and we've added two solid veterans in Lewis and Warren. We've also added Deaderick who could get lots of reps at DE.

I think that Belichick understands the void left by Seymour and Green.

Who will make the roster is very up in the air, as is the depth chart. None of the backups should feel that they are guaranteed a roster spot. I expect us to carry seven defensive linemen. We WILL improve our run defense and short yardage defense!

The BOTTOM LINE is that there is lots of work to do, but the talent and the pieces are there to make this a top defensive line.
=====================================================

INSIDE LINEBACKERS (much improved)

Many idenitifed this as a weakness before the draft. We're fine now. We have two veteran starters. Mayo should be healthy and stronger. And we have two youngsters in Spikes and McKenzie who should compete for reps. As long as one of them is an OK backup this year, we are better off than in 2009.
======================================================

OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS AND PASSRUSHERS (worse for now)

Could we really be worse off compared to 2009?

I suppose the improvements at DL, ILB and CB could make this hole a bit smaller. Less will be required from this sad group, our weak link.

As of now, we bring back Banta-Cain, Woods, Thomas and Ninkovich from 2009. We have free agents Murrell. Crable is back. And yes, we drafted Cunningham, but I'm not sure how much we should expect from a first year patriot linebacker.

No matter how we slice and dice, this is the worst set of passrushers and outside linebackers competing for a playoff team.

At minimum, we need to bring back Burgess or a veteran replacement. At best, we will bring back Burgess AND trade for an outside linebacker.

How are we worse at OLB?
You might as well consider Burgess being here in your analysis because we will sign him if we want to. I think we are choosing not to. We add Cunningham, theoretically Crable, and possibly Guyton. If we chose to not bring Burgess back it would be because we like the other guys better, and i dont really know how it could be any worse. The bar isnt very high for whoever gets the job of situational pass rusher from Burgess. Same holds true for AD, anyone we put out there cant be worse.

 

[RayClay]

I think you're much too pessimistic on the OLB situation.

So the ILB adds a rookie and a complete unknown coming back from injury, and they're all set, while the OLB does pretty much the same and they're disaster?

Thomas was dead weight and a distraction last year. If he's gone or decides to shut up and play, either way is a plus. Burgess and TBC were thrown in there with him and should both benefit from a camp. BB was very complimentary about how Burgess was much more than just a rusher in a post season interview, which leads me to believe he's transitioning to OLB. He is a good tackler. We also have Woods for early downs. Nincovich might get some reps too, he actually looked promising.

I'm not counting on Crable, but I don't think they're paying him for nothing, which would give us a decent mix of vet and young rushers. Cunningham is a Captain and is very agile, so I could see them trying to push him to learn the position.

Now these complete 3-4 linebackers someone is going to give us affordably...what team are they on?

 

[patsfan-1982]

the only thing i can say about the OLB's it is what it is BB is not tradeing for anyone the only vet that is available is burgess, the pats may sign some JAG like Rob Ninkovich, who will add dept but not have any impact at all on the season.


i say BB will not cut AD untill he sees if the rookie can realy play if he cuts AD at all crable, is the wild card here if he makes the team



are the pats worst this year at OLB then last year.... will if TBC dose not have the same type of year he had in 09 and the rookie dose not make a impact yes i say they are worst.

 

[Fencer]

Is it really only one guy who's missing?

We need two guys standing up in the base set and two guys putting their hands down in the nickel set. Those may or may not be the same guys.

I think we're all comfortable w/ TBC as one of the hands-down guys. But I can't think of anybody else I'm comfortable with based solely on last year's play. We're waiting on young player development, vet player development (Burgess), rookie success, further player acquisition, whatever for, IMO, 2-3 roles.

 

[Rob0729]

There are several options at OLB that I can think of although I don't know if the Pats will consider any of them:

1.) Shawne Merriman - The Chargers tried to trade him this weekend. They may be willing to let him go for less now. Granted what prevented him from being traded was a new contract and agreeing to terms. Granted there is no rush now that the draft is over to get a deal done quickly, but Merriman might overvalue himself.

2.) Greg Ellis - Still a good pass rushing specialist. Problems include his age (35 in August) and his previous distaste for playing OLB in the 3-4 in Dallas. The Pats did make him an offer last year.

3.) Bryan Thomas - Word was before the draft that he would be cut along with Faneca. No word yet if he will. Not a great option, but would be cheap and serviceable.

4.) Osi Umenyiora - Most likely available in a trade. The question is whether he can do a Willie McGinest and make a transition later in his career from DE to the elephant position (hybrid OLB/DE). Also, the question is whether he is done because of his knee injury. Now that the Giants have Jean-Paul Pierre, Osi might be able to be had for a song.

5.) Jarrett Johnson - Now that the Ravens drafted Sergio Kindle to line up opposite Terrell Suggs, could Jarrett be available for a trade? Granted he isn't all that special even if he was second on the team in sacks last year after Trevor Price.

6.) Clark Haggans - Now that Arizon drafted Daryl Washington in the second round, Haggan might be available for a trade or could be cut outright. He is older and not as productive as he used to be though.

 

[Fencer]

I actually went and looked up Matt Chatham's bio, but he's been out of the NFL for a year, so I'm guessing he's done.

 

[Fencer]

While I just argued there are a lot of question marks, let's turn it around.

TBC is solid as a nickel rusher.

Cunningham was picked as a 2nd-round LB, so hopefully he can be useful in some kind of role his first season. Best guess at that role is 3rd-down rusher, even though that means he wouldn't play much w/ his old college roommate.

Crable has a lot of talent IF he can stay healthy, and his specialty is rushing.

Burgess could still be re-signed, although I'm guessing against it at this point, or at least against him being a significant contributor.

So the problem really is OLBs in the base set, where we have zero guys returning who are better than Pierre Woods, and no additions who project to be effective there in 2010.

 

[bbell31]

Cunningham-poor man's demarcus ware in 3 years imo. we pretty much had a near perfect draft. I think kaczur, ad, stanback, possibly fred taylor will be gone.

 

[mgteich]

The situtations are not in any way comparable. We had two starters at ILB last year: Mayo and Guyton. They played on almost all downs. They are coming back.

To be the same as last year, someone needs to step up and produce as well as Seau in his 11.9% of the reps. And we have two possibilities to step in. In addition, Mayo is expected to be healthy for the entire year. So, yes, I expect improvement at ILB.

Obviously, the hope is that we will have Guyton is a full 3-man rotation at ILB with one of the two kids or a combination of both.

I think you're much too pessimistic on the OLB situation.

So the ILB adds a rookie and a complete unknown coming back from injury, and they're all set, while the OLB does pretty much the same and they're disaster?

 

[RayClay]

The situtations are not in any way comparable. We had two starters at ILB last year: Mayo and Guyton. They played on almost all downs. They are coming back.

To be the same as last year, someone needs to step up and produce as well as Seau in his 11.9% of the reps. And we have two possibilities to step in. In addition, Mayo is expected to be healthy for the entire year. So, yes, I expect improvement at ILB.

Obviously, the hope is that we will have Guyton is a full 3-man rotation at ILB with one of the two kids or a combination of both.

So the ILB adds a rookie and a complete unknown coming back from injury, and they're all set, while the OLB does pretty much the same and they're disaster?

Guyton was a starter only because someone had to be. Mayo was playing out of position, so he will be changing positions and playing next to a rookie.

We're trying to get rid of the stink of Adalius' attitude's, so we bring in the cast off Merriman?

We can bring in everybody at OLB from last year except Thomas, with a years more experience in the system and add a good looking rookie to possibly play every down once he learns plus maybe Crable.

Seems to me a fresh start is what is called for. I also think having DEs that might draw a double in Seymour's spot will help all the rushers get free.

 

[mgteich]

A) I presume that we are fine with the 2009 production and reps from Banta-Cain and Woods.

B) You say that ANYONE would be better than Burgess and Thomas as they performed last year. Perhaps you are correct. We'll test that assumption by playing Ninkovich and Crable in place of Thomas, Burgess, with Cunningham getting some reps as he learns our defense.

Burgess (57.3%) replacement - Ninkovich
Thomas (54.1%) replacewment - Crable
Ninkovich (12.4%) replacement - Cunningham

C) We've been warned for years not to expect too much from a rookie patriot linebacker. I agree with you that Cunningham should be expected to play as much as Ninkovich did last year. Who was the last patriot rookie linebacker to paly that much on the regular defence? Bruschi?

D) We are counting on Ninkovich for major reps, and he will get them. But please recall that he that he was on the bench while Thomas and Burgess got the reps last year. He is NOT better than they are. And are we really counting on Crable to be better than Thomas?

E) So, my bottom line is that I think that we are worse off with this year's group, as of now.

E) And I am NOT pessimistic about the defense at all. We have two very weak positions: OLB and DE/OLB. We have lots of strong positions.

F) I do NOT expect Belichick to ignore this one weakness over the next two months as we get ready for Training Camp. There aren't many personnel priorities for the next tow months.

1) an extension for Mankins,
2) an extension for Brady,
3) bring the usual set of veteran JAG's as camp fodder and as insurance against to many injuries,
4) review free agent lists, cuts, and trade possibilities for a DE/OLB or/and an OLB and
5) review cuts by other teams for a possible running back upgrade.

How are we worse at OLB?

 

[efin98]

I think it's too early to start critiquing the OLB corps...

Chike Okeafor, Chris Draft, Danny Clark, Keith Bullock, Bertrand Berry...they and Burgess are the only OLB UFAs on the market at this time who haven't re-signed or moved on yet.

Greg Wilkerson, Matt Roth, Shawne Merriman, Rocky McIntosh, Clint Ingram, Tyjuan Hagler, Elvis Dumervil, Thomas Davis...they are the only remaining OLB RFAs at this point who haven't been re-signed or moved on elsewhere.


The market isn't flooded with cast offs, JAGs, and salary dumps from teams yet, they can afford to wait another month or two before getting someone...

 

[bucky]

B) You say that ANYONE would be better than Burgess and Thomas as they performed last year. Perhaps you are correct. We'll test that assumption by playing Ninkovich and Crable in place of Thomas, Burgess, with Cunningham getting some reps as he learns our defense.

Burgess (57.3%) replacement - Ninkovich
Thomas (54.1%) replacewment - Crable
Ninkovich (12.4%) replacement - Cunningham

I don't see it that way at all. Burgess was NEVER an OLB for this team. He was purely a nickel rusher. And his time should go to Cunningham almost exclusively as long as he's healthy. There is still the question of who plays AD's spot and I suspect it's either (a) a person who's not currently on the roster, or (b) combination of current scrubs plus more of a 43 look. It's not ideal, but then again last year's situation was far from ideal also.

Either way, I think to answer your original post, the comparison of whether this year's front 7 will be better than last year's depends totally on the development of young players. Barring injury, I don't think we can get worse because Lewis will replace Green (who had his worst year ever and got rewarded by McDaniels for it.) The LBs are just very young. Mayo and Guyton are only 2 years out of schools and both should improve. We also have a rookie and a redshirt rookie at ILB. If one of them can get into the rotation, the ILBs are improved. On the DL, we have 3 second year guys and 2 more rookies. All it takes is for 1 or 2 of those 5 guys to step up and the DL will be improved.

 

[supafly]

Who was the last patriot rookie linebacker to paly that much on the regular defence? Bruschi?

Jerod Mayo



BTW--I agree with your assessment, and it's nice to see things looking up on defense.

 

[mgteich]

I meant outside linebacker, but your point is well-taken. Both Mayo and Guyton learned the system and contributed a lot in their rookie years. It can be done. I don't think Spikes will have any trouble on run downs.

Jerod Mayo



BTW--I agree with your assessment, and it's nice to see things looking up on defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

Warren is crap and Lewis hasn't played in the 3-4. The notion that the line is much improved is just wishful thinking. I hope your wish comes true, but don't start holding your breath waiting for proof.