Building a team-1st round genius/2nd round dunce

[jeffbiologist]

Its widely thought that BB does pretty well drafting in the first round. Lets take a little look at recent history to see why. Its my theory that BB is a great coach and can make lemonade from lemons like nobodys business so I'm not bashing, but its my theory that starting players/first teamers get alot more attention/reps and produce accordingly. Our drafts have been as productive as any mostly because BB puts players in position to succeed not fail.SYSTEM. I say this because I question the time/use/value of another high round DB because its going to come at the cost of another. Now its easy to say McC is a 4 down DB and he will take a roster spot from a $$ underproducing Shawn Springs. What has to happen is he will be the immediate nickel back....and that Wheatley(2nd rd pick 08)and Wilhite(4th rd pick 08) havent proven to be even solid NICKEL backs! Why? They have had 2 years undivided attention in a brand new secondary. Each has been given opportunity. Now we have a new #1 pick and comparisons to previous #1s are inevitable.
In 08 we had a hole at ILB-Mayo-
In 07 we had "no holes"-Meriweather-
In 06 we had a hole at RB-Maroney-
In 05 we had a hole at G-Mankins-
In 04 we had a hole at NT-Wilfork-
In 04 we had a starting TE-Watson---essentially a 2nd rd pick

Now in 09 I cant say we had a hole at CB, maybe BB can.I can say we have a hole at DE(unless he gave the position to Lewis) and OLB(unless Guyton is moved or Crable comes on). But success is measured in a large way by opportunity in our system. I think our lack of success with 2nd round picks is because they simply arent given/dont earn the same opportunity that 1st round picks do....for some reason. What is that reason? BB cant be a genius in the first round and a dunce in the second right? Put another way, when was the last time any rookie besides the first round pick STARTED year 1 not due to injury(Ghost doesnt count)?? Compare that to other teams. Does he look for a first rounder to start, a second rounder to take a chance on, a third rounder to be a solid JAG and lower picks to surprise? You cant say everyone is given an equal chance of success. The fact that players leaving NE(with the exception of Samuel) havent reached expectations is significant as well, talent isnt going away. So dont you have to ask if it was truely there to begin with or was it the SYSTEM? If its the system why do you draft a CB high again this year? We have never had so many holes in the BB era yet I suggest we wont be starting a single draft pick even with all the ammo we have going into it. To me this is the best way to work our way back to the middle instead of staying on top. Talentwise anyways. Its starting to remind me of that run of playoff years the Bruins had without winning a cup doesnt it? I'm not panicking but wouldnt taking a chance on a guy like D.Bryant, trading up for a blue-chip mean more than losing "value" cutting guys like OConnell, Jackson, and the upcoming Wheatley and Maroney?? I mean its year 2 for Wilhite and Wheatley and you are essentially saying they cant play NICKEL for gods sake!

 

[RodThePat]

If we have a hole at DE where Mike Wright is currently starting, with Pryor in the mix, then you can surely say we also have a hole at corner, with Wilhite handling the nickel in 09. That position surely could use an upgrade, even if it's not as much of a need as OLB, TE and WR.

 

[xmarkd400x]

1) Except in rare and extenuating circumstances (See: Bledsoe), the best player always plays. I say all players get a good chance to perform in the Patriot system.

2) The earlier in the draft a player is taken, the more talent they (generally) have.

3) The Patriots improved an area of need with the CB pick. You cannot deny that.

4) Please back up your assertion about second round 'failures'.

5) BB, like the Steelers and Colts have a system. They are good at finding players whose skills map into the system. That's one benefit of continuity. When said players move to a system that may or may not map directly to their skill-set, results vary.

6) Dez Bryant? Really? And what do you mean 'take a chance' on a 'blue chip prospect'? Either you are taking a chance or they are a blue chipper.

 

[Ring 6]

Its widely thought that BB does pretty well drafting in the first round. Lets take a little look at recent history to see why. Its my theory that BB is a great coach and can make lemonade from lemons like nobodys business so I'm not bashing, but its my theory that starting players/first teamers get alot more attention/reps and produce accordingly. Our drafts have been as productive as any mostly because BB puts players in position to succeed not fail.SYSTEM. I say this because I question the time/use/value of another high round DB because its going to come at the cost of another. Now its easy to say McC is a 4 down DB and he will take a roster spot from a $$ underproducing Shawn Springs. What has to happen is he will be the immediate nickel back....and that Wheatley(2nd rd pick 08)and Wilhite(4th rd pick 08) havent proven to be even solid NICKEL backs! Why? They have had 2 years undivided attention in a brand new secondary. Each has been given opportunity. Now we have a new #1 pick and comparisons to previous #1s are inevitable.
In 08 we had a hole at ILB-Mayo-
In 07 we had "no holes"-Meriweather-
In 06 we had a hole at RB-Maroney-
In 05 we had a hole at G-Mankins-
In 04 we had a hole at NT-Wilfork-
In 04 we had a starting TE-Watson---essentially a 2nd rd pick

Now in 09 I cant say we had a hole at CB, maybe BB can.I can say we have a hole at DE(unless he gave the position to Lewis) and OLB(unless Guyton is moved or Crable comes on). But success is measured in a large way by opportunity in our system. I think our lack of success with 2nd round picks is because they simply arent given/dont earn the same opportunity that 1st round picks do....for some reason. What is that reason? BB cant be a genius in the first round and a dunce in the second right? Put another way, when was the last time any rookie besides the first round pick STARTED year 1 not due to injury(Ghost doesnt count)?? Compare that to other teams. Does he look for a first rounder to start, a second rounder to take a chance on, a third rounder to be a solid JAG and lower picks to surprise? You cant say everyone is given an equal chance of success. The fact that players leaving NE(with the exception of Samuel) havent reached expectations is significant as well, talent isnt going away. So dont you have to ask if it was truely there to begin with or was it the SYSTEM? If its the system why do you draft a CB high again this year? We have never had so many holes in the BB era yet I suggest we wont be starting a single draft pick even with all the ammo we have going into it. To me this is the best way to work our way back to the middle instead of staying on top. Talentwise anyways. Its starting to remind me of that run of playoff years the Bruins had without winning a cup doesnt it? I'm not panicking but wouldnt taking a chance on a guy like D.Bryant, trading up for a blue-chip mean more than losing "value" cutting guys like OConnell, Jackson, and the upcoming Wheatley and Maroney?? I mean its year 2 for Wilhite and Wheatley and you are essentially saying they cant play NICKEL for gods sake!

I dont understand the idea of 'taking a chance on Bryant'.
You do realize that a good WR is no more valuable than a good corner even though WRs have stats next to their name, get on ESPN and are easy to judge because of that, right?
As far as the rest, there may be validity to the success rate in later rounds being lower because there were fewer needs, therefore you could take more chances, such as drafting 2 players at the same position as has been done, but its too hard to say because the draft is just an inexact science.
You can make great decisions based on the information you have on draft day, then find out once the 20 year old gets a big paycheck, 100s of thousands more than their family ever had in many cases, that they lose thier work ethic, for example.
I have always thought that about 3% of the success of a draft choice (relative success to where they are chosen) is determined before the draft and 97% is determined by what they do from that day forward. In other words, no one is drafted ready, and the separation between players is not enormous, and what they do from here on is what truly separates them.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

The Giant gaping black hole at DE and OLB says "Hello"!!!

 

[RodThePat]

The Giant gaping black hole at DE and OLB says "Hello"!!!

DE is a gaping hole? What, now we have to field a DL composed of nothing but first round picks? You have the best NT in football and a top 5 3-4 end, if you can't play defense unless the RDE is also an all-pro caliber player, then you better change your system. A rotation of Damione Lewis/Mike Wright/Myron Pryor should be enough at that spot. That being said, I still believe we'll draft a DL today.

At OLB, on the other hand, your point is valid. We currently have TBC and a bunch of special teamers. There's absolutely no way we can go into this season with Woods/Ninkovich starting on defense.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

DE is a gaping hole? What, now we have to field a DL composed of nothing but first round picks? You have the best NT in football and a top 5 3-4 end, if you can't play defense unless the RDE is also an all-pro caliber player, then you better change your system. A rotation of Damione Lewis/Mike Wright/Myron Pryor should be enough at that spot. That being said, I still believe we'll draft a DL today.

At OLB, on the other hand, your point is valid. We currently have TBC and a bunch of special teamers. There's absolutely no way we can go into this season with Woods/Ninkovich starting on defense.

You do realize that all three of them are 4-3 DT and not 3-4 (or 4-3) DEs. I have no idea what the Pats are thinking about, are they a 4-3 team now? Either way they do not have a DE opposite Warren.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I dont understand the idea of 'taking a chance on Bryant'.
You do realize that a good WR is no more valuable than a good corner even though WRs have stats next to their name, get on ESPN and are easy to judge because of that, right?
As far as the rest, there may be validity to the success rate in later rounds being lower because there were fewer needs, therefore you could take more chances, such as drafting 2 players at the same position as has been done, but its too hard to say because the draft is just an inexact science.
You can make great decisions based on the information you have on draft day, then find out once the 20 year old gets a big paycheck, 100s of thousands more than their family ever had in many cases, that they lose thier work ethic, for example.
I have always thought that about 3% of the success of a draft choice (relative success to where they are chosen) is determined before the draft and 97% is determined by what they do from that day forward. In other words, no one is drafted ready, and the separation between players is not enormous, and what they do from here on is what truly separates them.

Hey, I respect your opinion and I dont like nor did I want Bryant but I put his name out there to say...if you know you are taking a chance on these guys anyways and you have earned the slack we give you WHY NOT? WHY NOT take 2 of our 2nds and trade up into the bottom of the first to try and get a STARTING PLAYER. I suggest this pick is BB aknowledging that NOT ONE rookie has a chance to start on his team in 2010. With all the holes, real or percieved, and all the ammunition to get up to get a blue-chip starting player with less chance of failure how do you still trade down and talk value? The boat is listing, not sinking yet, but maybe its time to put the rod down and stop fishing for bargains. TRUST in your coaching ability to find backups in 6th and 7th round picks and FAs as you have in the past. LIMIT mistakes in the first round while still taking positions of NEED. Lets see, who was drafted yesterday that COULDNT start for this team??
2 QBs
2 WRs-though you could argue we are a 3wr team
1 C
1 G-though Neal is replacable
If you are pencilling him in as a starter that means Butler is going to be nothing but a Nickel? WOW, 1 year and you give up on the guy. And if you know you are going CB in round 1 then WHY do you sign Bodden to such a big contract?? Why not use that $$ on someone else?? I think we are stitching up a hangnail arent we??

 

[patfanken]

If we have a hole at DE where Mike Wright is currently starting, with Pryor in the mix, then you can surely say we also have a hole at corner, with Wilhite handling the nickel in 09. That position surely could use an upgrade, even if it's not as much of a need as OLB, TE and WR.

+

Yes, Rod, we have a hole at the DE spot, but the fact is that NONE of players available where we were draft were players who could IMMEDIATELY fill that hole. If we had selected Odrick he would have come in an been a situational player as he learned to 2 gap, anchor his side, and play in the varied alignments they are asked to play......at best.

 

[RodThePat]

+

Yes, Rod, we have a hole at the DE spot, but the fact is that NONE of players available where we were draft were players who could IMMEDIATELY fill that hole. If we had selected Odrick he would have come in an been a situational player as he learned to 2 gap, anchor his side, and play in the varied alignments they are asked to play......at best.

That's actually kind of my point. I think there's absolutely no way you could consider drafting a DE in the first round a need and not think of CB as a similar situation.