idle thoughts - draft day 1

[patfanken]

1. I was on the road last night when the Pats were about to pick and I lost 98.5 upon entering CT. I managed to avoid causing multiple wrecks as I scrambled to find a station that was covering the draft. The Pats were on the clock at 24 when I found WBAL, the Ravens station. When the Pats traded down AGAIN, I was very pleased to hear a feature they had on their coverage. Whenever a player was picked, they had a pretaped report by a Ravens scout or the head of the personel department.

So when the Pats went on the clock, I was very impressed that BB had picked up an extra 3rd and 4th and STILL had his choice of Odrick, Kindle, and Hughes. The Draft was working out perfectly. So like many here, I was kind of shocked and kind of disappointed when McCourty's name gets called.

I was much less disappoint when I heard the Ravens' take on McCourty. Briefly they lauded his coverage ability. They lauded his toughness. They mentioned that he had size for a CB. That's all nice, but then they talked about things I DIDN'T know. They had him down as the best gunner in the draft. They had him as one of the top 3 KO/Punt returners....AND as a great kick blocker.

Now I understood when BB called him a 4 down player in his presser. The fact is that he is MUCH more likely to be on the field more plays THIS season than any of the 3 guys that everyone expected, even if he just plays the nickel. In today's NFL teams are in the "nickel" more than 60% of the time.

At best Odrick would be a DE on running downs....in a rotation. You couldn't expect Hughes to be more than an developmental OLB making the VERY difficult transition from college DE, limited to situational pass rushing his first few years. And Kindle, we now find out could be needing micro fracture surgery on his knee, but even healthy he'd be a ditto for the Hughes comment.

So when it came down to it, a CB with STs ability is MUCH more likely to make an immediate impact on this team next year, and wasn't that what we wanted with our first pick?????

2. I think the thing people forget (including myself) is that it is VERY rare that a rookie comes into the league and makes an IMMEDIATE impact as a pass rusher. Usually it takes a few years before they develop. Porter, Harrison, and Dummerville come immediately to mind. All were 2nd day picks who took 3+ years before they became impact rushers.

Sean Merriman is the exception that comes to mind, but his production has slipped to almost nothing as he's been in the league. OTOH, a guy we all loved last draft season. Alex English was pretty much a non-factor as a rookie, as he makes his transition from college DE to NFL OLB. He might turn out to be a fine OLB, but it TAKES TIME.

3. With all this in mind, BB's choice becomes a lot clearer. With Marshall and Holmes coming into the division, BB needed an impact player on defense, and at 22-27 the only players left who had that ability was a DB.

4. The point I'm trying to make is that, at the end of the first round, EVERY so called pass rushing prospect would have to be considered a "developmental" player in the Pats system. And since whoever they picked would be that kind of player, and that kind of risk, they were just as likely to find him in the 2nd/3rd/and 4th rounds as in the first.

I'm thinking that as they develop a better passer within their own team, they can pick up more of a sure thing in NEXT YEARS' very deep FA market, than in the draft.

5. I'm fine with passing on Dez Bryant for 2 reasons. First I don't understand the hype with him and the comparisons with Randy Moss. First the only thing they have in common is their off field question marks coming into the league, and that they are both tall for WRs.

That's where the comparisons end. Moss was always a deep threat with 4.3 speed, while Bryant is a mid 4.5 guy with questionable acceleration. At best I see a comparison with TO, as a strong big possession WR with good YAC skills. I worst he could be another Mike Williams.

While some pooh pooh his off field issues, which I admit are minor. But what concerns me is the fact that he couldn't be counted on to be at practice or meetings. I would be concerned with the cavalier manner he went through the "interview" process this off season. I would be concerned about his commitment to being anything more than what his natural ability allows him to be. And I'd be concerned with his coachability,

I think that is why Josh went with a big WR, but one who HAS more speed. And while he DOESN'T have any experience in a pro style offense, he IS smart and coachable. All things considered, if the Pats HAD drafted a WR first, I believe it would have be the GTech kid and NOT Bryant.

6. Speaking of WRs, a couple of things have got me thinking a lot more highly about the Torry Holt signing. First is the report that Brady had been using Holt as the exemplar of route running when he works with his young WRs. The second is that when you think back to the Givens/Branch years, the key to that success is that Brady had 2 guys who would ALWAYS be exactly where he expected them to be. It wasn't that they were tall, fast, etc, though those aren't bad things, they just might not be the most important things

7.What was it that convinced the Pats that Edelman's future was at WR (to the point where, even though they only had 2 QBs for most of the year, he never took a snap at QB, even in practice). What caught the Pats eye was his 3 cone time. His was one of the best, and I have ALWAYS believed that ACCELERATION, not speed is the most important factor in NFL success. And its the 3 cone drill that best projects acceleration, not the 40 yd dash.

8. That being said, I heard a report (and some draft guru can probably confirm) that McCourty had the best 3 cone times among the DBs. That's just in case you are still pissed about the pick

9. I think the Jets made a great pick in Wilson. I'm thinking that he might not be the best all round DB in the draft, BUT he was the best guy if you needed a guy to cover the slot receiver in the Pats offense. And that is why I think the Jets went for him. They need a guy who can cover the Pats slot receiver, whether its Welker or Edelman...and unfortunately they got him.

10. I am really looking forward to tonight and the Pats 4 picks in the next 2 rounds. But I have to wonder about having FOURTEEN total picks. There is not nearly 14 slots available, so I'm hoping the Pats use SEVERAL of those picks to move up in this year's draft, or trade them into next year. For example I would love to see us use that #53 and in some combination (say a 4th and 5th, and move up into the top 5 of the 2nd round.

Well that's all I have for now. Enjoy tonight. I think it will be a lot more fun and interesting that last night.

 

[reflexblue]

Excellent analysis as always...makes me feel better about taking a CB.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I believe it's 13 total picks - for the moment.

Last year NE "redshirted" a WR/RS who was drafted while rehabbing an injury, so they had 11 of their picks to intergrate while stashing 1 for later. It turned into 3 when McKenzie and Bussey both wound up on IR. I projected a NE draft of 13 picks in one of the draft forum games, so far so good. NE has two targeted prospects who fit the "redshirt" profile on the short list I compiled from the predraft contacts thread. Additionally, a roster is more than 53, you have 8 Practice Squad slots to fill too (plus any on IR/PUP). If my math is correct, NE has 14 slots remaining on the 80-man offseason roster, the Free Agent pool has been poor this year, so why not accmulate a few excess picks at the end of the draft for creating competition...?

2011 thought: I have the 2011 draft class forecast as pretty weak once you get out of round one, it occurs to me that NE placing three Navy players on reserve/military status last year, with eligibility to play starting in 2011, is pretty sneaky.

 

[Patspsycho]

Great writeup as always!

Do not see what the big deal is about Odrick- he does not "anchor" as you would need to do in a 2 gap 3-4, but was more of a penetrator at Penn. He would fit better in a slanting 3-4 like in Miami.

The main issue with me, over Dez Bryant is not his diva reputation, but his playbook efficiency. Where he comes from, if they tell you to run a 10 yard hook, that is what you run, but in NE, that 10 yard hook has 10 different options, a lot of which are dictated by coverage. Bryant has allegedly had his problems with the playbook- the word is that they gave him a condensed one. At this level, giving him a four inch playbook.. forget it.

I agree that tonight will be exciting. I hope we are able to move some of our 7th round pick because so many of them are unmovable (comp picks).

 

[shmessy]

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. I'd pay to read Patsfanken.

 

[Ring 6]

1. I was on the road last night when the Pats were about to pick and I lost 98.5 upon entering CT. I managed to avoid causing multiple wrecks as I scrambled to find a station that was covering the draft. The Pats were on the clock at 24 when I found WBAL, the Ravens station. When the Pats traded down AGAIN, I was very pleased to hear a feature they had on their coverage. Whenever a player was picked, they had a pretaped report by a Ravens scout or the head of the personel department.

So when the Pats went on the clock, I was very impressed that BB had picked up an extra 3rd and 4th and STILL had his choice of Odrick, Kindle, and Hughes. The Draft was working out perfectly. So like many here, I was kind of shocked and kind of disappointed when McCourty's name gets called.

I was much less disappoint when I heard the Ravens' take on McCourty. Briefly they lauded his coverage ability. They lauded his toughness. They mentioned that he had size for a CB. That's all nice, but then they talked about things I DIDN'T know. They had him down as the best gunner in the draft. They had him as one of the top 3 KO/Punt returners....AND as a great kick blocker.

Now I understood when BB called him a 4 down player in his presser. The fact is that he is MUCH more likely to be on the field more plays THIS season than any of the 3 guys that everyone expected, even if he just plays the nickel. In today's NFL teams are in the "nickel" more than 60% of the time.

At best Odrick would be a DE on running downs....in a rotation. You couldn't expect Hughes to be more than an developmental OLB making the VERY difficult transition from college DE, limited to situational pass rushing his first few years. And Kindle, we now find out could be needing micro fracture surgery on his knee, but even healthy he'd be a ditto for the Hughes comment.

So when it came down to it, a CB with STs ability is MUCH more likely to make an immediate impact on this team next year, and wasn't that what we wanted with our first pick?????

2. I think the thing people forget (including myself) is that it is VERY rare that a rookie comes into the league and makes an IMMEDIATE impact as a pass rusher. Usually it takes a few years before they develop. Porter, Harrison, and Dummerville come immediately to mind. All were 2nd day picks who took 3+ years before they became impact rushers.

Sean Merriman is the exception that comes to mind, but his production has slipped to almost nothing as he's been in the league. OTOH, a guy we all loved last draft season. Alex English was pretty much a non-factor as a rookie, as he makes his transition from college DE to NFL OLB. He might turn out to be a fine OLB, but it TAKES TIME.

3. With all this in mind, BB's choice becomes a lot clearer. With Marshall and Holmes coming into the division, BB needed an impact player on defense, and at 22-27 the only players left who had that ability was a DB.

4. The point I'm trying to make is that, at the end of the first round, EVERY so called pass rushing prospect would have to be considered a "developmental" player in the Pats system. And since whoever they picked would be that kind of player, and that kind of risk, they were just as likely to find him in the 2nd/3rd/and 4th rounds as in the first.

I'm thinking that as they develop a better passer within their own team, they can pick up more of a sure thing in NEXT YEARS' very deep FA market, than in the draft.

5. I'm fine with passing on Dez Bryant for 2 reasons. First I don't understand the hype with him and the comparisons with Randy Moss. First the only thing they have in common is their off field question marks coming into the league, and that they are both tall for WRs.

That's where the comparisons end. Moss was always a deep threat with 4.3 speed, while Bryant is a mid 4.5 guy with questionable acceleration. At best I see a comparison with TO, as a strong big possession WR with good YAC skills. I worst he could be another Mike Williams.

While some pooh pooh his off field issues, which I admit are minor. But what concerns me is the fact that he couldn't be counted on to be at practice or meetings. I would be concerned with the cavalier manner he went through the "interview" process this off season. I would be concerned about his commitment to being anything more than what his natural ability allows him to be. And I'd be concerned with his coachability,

I think that is why Josh went with a big WR, but one who HAS more speed. And while he DOESN'T have any experience in a pro style offense, he IS smart and coachable. All things considered, if the Pats HAD drafted a WR first, I believe it would have be the GTech kid and NOT Bryant.

6. Speaking of WRs, a couple of things have got me thinking a lot more highly about the Torry Holt signing. First is the report that Brady had been using Holt as the exemplar of route running when he works with his young WRs. The second is that when you think back to the Givens/Branch years, the key to that success is that Brady had 2 guys who would ALWAYS be exactly where he expected them to be. It wasn't that they were tall, fast, etc, though those aren't bad things, they just might not be the most important things

7.What was it that convinced the Pats that Edelman's future was at WR (to the point where, even though they only had 2 QBs for most of the year, he never took a snap at QB, even in practice). What caught the Pats eye was his 3 cone time. His was one of the best, and I have ALWAYS believed that ACCELERATION, not speed is the most important factor in NFL success. And its the 3 cone drill that best projects acceleration, not the 40 yd dash.

8. That being said, I heard a report (and some draft guru can probably confirm) that McCourty had the best 3 cone times among the DBs. That's just in case you are still pissed about the pick

9. I think the Jets made a great pick in Wilson. I'm thinking that he might not be the best all round DB in the draft, BUT he was the best guy if you needed a guy to cover the slot receiver in the Pats offense. And that is why I think the Jets went for him. They need a guy who can cover the Pats slot receiver, whether its Welker or Edelman...and unfortunately they got him.

10. I am really looking forward to tonight and the Pats 4 picks in the next 2 rounds. But I have to wonder about having FOURTEEN total picks. There is not nearly 14 slots available, so I'm hoping the Pats use SEVERAL of those picks to move up in this year's draft, or trade them into next year. For example I would love to see us use that #53 and in some combination (say a 4th and 5th, and move up into the top 5 of the 2nd round.

Well that's all I have for now. Enjoy tonight. I think it will be a lot more fun and interesting that last night.

Great post, as usual. I will respond to 1 point, your last.
I think that there is room for most of the 14 picks when you consider the practice squad for a chunk of the day 3 picks plus the fact I don't remember the last time we didnt have at least 1 rook on IR.
If 8 make the team 5 go on ps and 1 on IR, there is room.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

pats always like players who have low 3 cone times. the problem is it can be quite deceiving. chad jackson had a great 3 cone time as well, which led to us picking him.

 

[vyrago]

Great post pfKen, better than most of the burble that people are paid to write.

 

[capetide]

Great writeup as always!

Do not see what the big deal is about Odrick- he does not "anchor" as you would need to do in a 2 gap 3-4, but was more of a penetrator at Penn. He would fit better in a slanting 3-4 like in Miami.

The main issue with me, over Dez Bryant is not his diva reputation, but his playbook efficiency. Where he comes from, if they tell you to run a 10 yard hook, that is what you run, but in NE, that 10 yard hook has 10 different options, a lot of which are dictated by coverage. Bryant has allegedly had his problems with the playbook- the word is that they gave him a condensed one. At this level, giving him a four inch playbook.. forget it.

I agree that tonight will be exciting. I hope we are able to move some of our 7th round pick because so many of them are unmovable (comp picks).

I agree re: Dez Bryant. The last thing the Pats need is to see Brady throwing to a spot dictacted by the defense and have the WR not at the right spot at the right time. Happened alot last year, resulting in incompletions, interceptions, a lack of confidence in the passing game, and lost opportunities. How manty times was Brady standing there holding his helmet in frustration after throwing a pass? You have to believe that the Patriots front office, having met with the kid, who has all the talent in the world, dont believe Bryant has the football smarts, motivation, and/or concentration/attention needed to be successful in their offense.

 

[Metaphors]

pats always like players who have low 3 cone times. the problem is it can be quite deceiving. chad jackson had a great 3 cone time as well, which led to us picking him.

CJack was a whiff because of mental/emotional reasons...not because he couldn't get from A-to-B quickly and catch a ball when he got there. I was a big CJack and O'Connell backer, but I couldn't see inside their tiny little minds. So I would think Belichick is probably more sensitive than most to football IQ over measurables.

 

[karguy85]

Thought I would ask this here since I can't post a new thread yet. I watched the draft at a friends place last night and he only had ESPN. I have NFL Network and was wondering how the analysis compares to ESPN. I think I know where people are going to go with this but I thought I would ask. Thanks!

 

[spacecrime]

Thought I would ask this here since I can't post a new thread yet. I watched the draft at a friends place last night and he only had ESPN. I have NFL Network and was wondering how the analysis compares to ESPN. I think I know where people are going to go with this but I thought I would ask. Thanks!

Pains me to say this, but ESPN was far and away the better. i was recording both and switching back and forth but quickly gave up on NFLN. The only issue I had with ESPN was Steve "Monkeyboy" Young yapping and not making sense. If they coukld have muzzled him, it would have been even better.

I'm recording both again tonight, but will watch NFLN only for the pats picks.

After losing Shefter, NFLN went straight into the toilet AFAIC.

 

[karguy85]

Thanks. Funny thing. I live in Midtown East and was on the upper west side (go to law school around there) and we decided to walk back to the east side after the draft and walked right by Radio City. We saw Marshall Faulk walking on the street and all I could think of is how much he hates the Pats.

 

[amazinPats]

Excellent analysis. Very sound. I really wish more posters acted like Patfanken, and actually did some thinking before they write.

 

[Water Boy]

Great post.

I'm feeling much better about the McCourty pick.

 

[Marqui]

Great post.
I'm feeling much better about the McCourty pick.

Same here.

 

[Fencer]

Thanks. Funny thing. I live in Midtown East and was on the upper west side (go to law school around there) and we decided to walk back to the east side after the draft and walked right by Radio City. We saw Marshall Faulk walking on the street and all I could think of is how much he hates the Pats.

Pace? I used to live very close to there, and actually used their law library once.

 

[karguy85]

Pace? I used to live very close to there, and actually used their law library once.

Fordham actually, which is located right in Lincoln Center. I was thinking about waiting outside Radio City and trying to get some of the players to sign with me as their agent Just kidding, but at least the draft is taking my attention away from finals... actually maybe thats not a good thing.

 

[Fencer]

Fordham actually, which is located right in Lincoln Center. I was thinking about waiting outside Radio City and trying to get some of the players to sign with me as their agent Just kidding, but at least the draft is taking my attention away from finals... actually maybe thats not a good thing.

Ack. I think I mixed the two up. Right south of Lincoln Center, almost connected?

Yeah, Fordham. Sorry!

I used to live at Columbus & 62nd.

 

[karguy85]

Ack. I think I mixed the two up. Right south of Lincoln Center, almost connected?

Yeah, Fordham. Sorry!

I used to live at Columbus & 62nd.

yeah, no worries. I think pace is actually in westchester (white plains I believe).