Need vs. Value and other random thoughts

[Zeus]

Some random thoughts on the draft ....

1. I saw a friend yesterday who is also a long time Patriots season ticket holder. When he asked me what I thought was going to happen in the draft last night, I told him the following:

- whatever happens, people will overreact, especially with no more picks until Friday. (Deus Irae has made this point in other threads.)

- they will trade down to backfill some of the Derrick Burgess induced holes in their draft board

- they will pick someone you've probably never heard of who, in all likelihood, will turn out to be a pretty good football player.​

2. In the world of the NFL draft, there are the professionals and there are the amateurs.

The pros (GMs, coaches, scouts, etc.) make lots of mistakes - just look at the success rate for even the first 5 or 10 picks for each of the last several years.

Some amateurs (Kiper, McShay, Mayock and others) have turned the draft into a cottage industry. They speak with great authority on draft day, but in reality, they don't know all that much. If they were real talent evaluators, they'd be in the business instead of talking about it on cable television. Mayock is probably the most credible of this group. Otherwise, the only one who was worth a damn was the late Joel Buchsbaum.

Other amateurs include garden variety sportswriters who talk to a lot of the pros and then have to sift through the information, misinformation and disinformation. When the smoke clears, we generally see that they really don't know a whole lot more than many of the fans (including people on this board) who read and study whatever they can to form their own opinions.​

The point is no matter how much we as fans try to figure this out, we'll never be privy to the inside game. That's for the pros.

3. I'll be the first to admit that I never even heard of Devin McCourty before NE picked him last night. From what I've read, it seems he's a smart, tough, physical player. It's pretty revealing that a three year starter who was arguably Rutgers' best defensive player, was such a factor on special teams (especially kick coverage). That tells me that this guy LOVES football. That, coupled with his versatility, makes him attractive to BB.

4. FWIW, I think people had pretty much the same reaction to Ty Law and Logan Mankins when they were picked.

5. Much of the criticism I've seen here is that NE didn't address a need with this pick. This goes back to the age old debate about drafting for need versus picking the best player available. I think BB believes that the latter approach (best player available) is best in the long run. Given the hit or miss nature of the whole draft process, teams who draft for need are much more likely to reach (thereby reducing the probability of success) and will not fare as well over time.

Let's see what happen tonight and Saturday before we get too worked up. Oops, I guess I'm too late with that suggestion ...

 

[Badluck]

if it was for value then why not take a top 5 talent at 22?
just sayin, like you said i never really looked at him because i didnt think CB would be a possibility this early but everything ive heard about him seem good and the fact that we have 3 2nds helps me cope

not "mad" at the pick but im going to take the wait and see approach

 

[xmarkd400x]

if it was for value then why not take a top 5 talent at 22?
just sayin, like you said i never really looked at him because i didnt think CB would be a possibility this early but everything ive heard about him seem good and the fact that we have 3 2nds helps me cope

not "mad" at the pick but im going to take the wait and see approach

They got their man at 27 instead of at 22. I don't believe that the Patriots CBs are as lacking as other areas, but it certainly isn't beyond improvement. By waiting, it looks like they added more picks for this draft and saved about $2m/5 years.

22. Minnesota - WR, Percy Harvin, Florida - Signed (5-years, $14.25M max; $8.425M guaranteed)
27. Indianapolis - RB, Donald Brown, UCONN - Signed (5-years, $12.835M; $6.845M guaranteed)

Mac's Football Blog: 2009 NFL Rookie Signing Status

 

[patsfan-1982]

the pats had and still have so many needs that anyone they draft is a need.


but yes drafting a CB who can also return kicks is a Value pick. brandon tate, or anyone on this roster. has not shown that they can be a good KR. and CB was a need not this high IMO. but a need.



lot's of people wanted the sexy pick of dez bryant, i for one wanted jared odrick, who IMO would have lessen the blow of tradeing away the only impact player on the front 3 ( richard seymour ) but im hopeing they draft a DE today who can be a good back up this year. and a pass rushing OLB.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

if it was for value then why not take a top 5 talent at 22?
just sayin, like you said i never really looked at him because i didnt think CB would be a possibility this early but everything ive heard about him seem good and the fact that we have 3 2nds helps me cope

not "mad" at the pick but im going to take the wait and see approach

Because at the end of the day "talent" is only as valuable as it's ability to get on and stay on the field. In this offensive system a guy with a learning disability and maturity, accountability, focus issues isn't likely to make it onto the field. Other teams will dumb down their offense in hopes of maximizing his talent. We won't do that because we have Brady and a system and three Lombardis, so to do so would undermine his biggest value in this system, his ability to run a complex sight adjusted offense. The guy who finally pulled the trigger on that top 5 talent at 22 has a history of overvaluing talent at the position that oddly hasn't panned out. As a result he hasn't won a championship in decades... But what the heck, different strokes for different folks.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

the pats had and still have so many needs that anyone they draft is a need.


but yes drafting a CB who can also return kicks is a Value pick. brandon tate, or anyone on this roster. has not shown that they can be a good KR. and CB was a need not this high IMO. but a need.



lot's of people wanted the sexy pick of dez bryant, i for one wanted jared odrick, who IMO would have lessen the blow of tradeing away the only impact player on the front 3 ( richard seymour ) but im hopeing they draft a DE today who can be a good back up this year. and a pass rushing OLB.

Holley said today that he now "knows" that the Patriots didn't have a pass rusher (OLB/DE) on their board with a first round grade...

 

[Zeus]

The guy who finally pulled the trigger on that top 5 talent at 22 has a history of overvaluing talent at the position that oddly hasn't panned out. As a result he hasn't won a championship in decades... But what the heck, different strokes for different folks.

That's the same guy who traded 1st, 3rd and 6th round picks for Roy Williams and then gave him a 5 year $45 million contract.

 

[Seacoast Fan]

That's the same guy who traded 1st, 3rd and 6th round picks for Roy Williams and then gave him a 5 year $45 million contract.

Call me stupid, but I trust BB's judgment over JJ's judgment.

 

[Bostonian1962]

I'll do an educated guess and figure that the Pats had McCourty rated probably 15-20 overall. Kindle was probably somewhere between 30 to 40, it would appear.

Monday morning QBs are trying to paint our CB core as the class of the team, and alot of folks here today seem to believe CB was not something this team needed. Likewise, our special teams must have been so great last year, that it's not necessary to upgrade it.

Yes, the team needs to upgrade OLB big time. But do you ignore your board, and all the work you've done setting it, it grabbing a need? That's what a ton of people here are saying today.

 

[DarrylS]

I do not love this pick, nor do I hate it.. not sure if it is about value, but facing the likes of Indy, Minnesota and with Miami & Jets adding big name receivers, need a lot of quality in the D backfield.. the days of walk ons are gone.

I agree do not get worked up, this is a work in progress...

 

[JMarr]

Holley said today that he now "knows" that the Patriots didn't have a pass rusher (OLB/DE) on their board with a first round grade...

Hopefull they have a 2nd round grade on one of the remaining ones who doesn't get taken before us.......

 

[Bostonian1962]

Holley said today that he now "knows" that the Patriots didn't have a pass rusher (OLB/DE) on their board with a first round grade...

I believe that is probably true, but there sure are alot of "experts" here today saying the Pats should have drafted an OLB or DE anyway.

Kraft: "Hey Bill, it's our turn to pick, what are you going to do?"
BB: "Well Mr. Kraft, I've got this CB here that we rate very highly. He's also the best Special Team player in the entire draft".
Kraft: "So, it's a slam dunk. That's who we're picking Billy baby?"
BB: "Ah, well Bobby, I'm gonna think a bit out of the box on this one. Call me crazy, but instead of drafting this player we love so much and rate so highly, I think I'd like to take a flyer on one of these fellas on which we have 2nd Round grades".
Kraft: "Who you thinking?"
BB: "Well, there is this kid Sergio Kindle. He had a knee injury in college. He was also arrested for DUI. On top of that he had a total of 5.5 sacks all year at DE. That should really help our pass rush. I'm thinking about converting him to OLB for us".
Kraft: "Sounds like a plan".

 

[DaBruinz]

Some random thoughts on the draft ....

1. I saw a friend yesterday who is also a long time Patriots season ticket holder. When he asked me what I thought was going to happen in the draft last night, I told him the following:

- whatever happens, people will overreact, especially with no more picks until Friday. (Deus Irae has made this point in other threads.) I find it funny that you mention Deus Irae here because he was one of the people who were over-reacting and calling the pick Idiotic.

- they will trade down to backfill some of the Derrick Burgess induced holes in their draft board

- they will pick someone you've probably never heard of who, in all likelihood, will turn out to be a pretty good football player.​

2. In the world of the NFL draft, there are the professionals and there are the amateurs.

The pros (GMs, coaches, scouts, etc.) make lots of mistakes - just look at the success rate for even the first 5 or 10 picks for each of the last several years.

Some amateurs (Kiper, McShay, Mayock and others) have turned the draft into a cottage industry. They speak with great authority on draft day, but in reality, they don't know all that much. If they were real talent evaluators, they'd be in the business instead of talking about it on cable television. Mayock is probably the most credible of this group. Otherwise, the only one who was worth a damn was the late Joel Buchsbaum.

Other amateurs include garden variety sportswriters who talk to a lot of the pros and then have to sift through the information, misinformation and disinformation. When the smoke clears, we generally see that they really don't know a whole lot more than many of the fans (including people on this board) who read and study whatever they can to form their own opinions.​

The point is no matter how much we as fans try to figure this out, we'll never be privy to the inside game. That's for the pros.

3. I'll be the first to admit that I never even heard of Devin McCourty before NE picked him last night. From what I've read, it seems he's a smart, tough, physical player. It's pretty revealing that a three year starter who was arguably Rutgers' best defensive player, was such a factor on special teams (especially kick coverage). That tells me that this guy LOVES football. That, coupled with his versatility, makes him attractive to BB.

4. FWIW, I think people had pretty much the same reaction to Ty Law and Logan Mankins when they were picked.

5. Much of the criticism I've seen here is that NE didn't address a need with this pick. This goes back to the age old debate about drafting for need versus picking the best player available. I think BB believes that the latter approach (best player available) is best in the long run. Given the hit or miss nature of the whole draft process, teams who draft for need are much more likely to reach (thereby reducing the probability of success) and will not fare as well over time.

Let's see what happen tonight and Saturday before we get too worked up. Oops, I guess I'm too late with that suggestion ...

Need is part of the VALUE equation. It always has been for the Pats.. Last night, I was getting raked by "The Dynasty" and Deus Irae because I felt that their reactions were over-reactions and that they both were living in fantasy land by calling the pick bad and idiotic respectively.

 

[hwc]

The mistake that we fans inevitably make is thinking in terms of plugging kids into a slot in the starting lineup, i.e. filling a need.

It's a simplistic model. I don't know if the concept of a "starting lineup" even has any meaning in today's NFL, where you need production from a couple hundred different roles in various sub packages.

I'm guessing that Bellichick probably looks at this thing in completely different way. Maybe his entire team is 1000 points worth of value. 2 points for this role. 100 points for Brady. 10 points for a gunner. 15 points for a slot corner. Whatever. So, he's looking at these kids in terms of how many total "points" of value they can give his team somewhere. The fact that a kid is the best gunner in the country on special teams (hypothetically) is more more important than whether he gives the team 14.8 points or 15.2 points as a slot corner.

In terms of need? Well, I know this. In the National Football League in 2010, you better have six defensive backs you can put on the field at one time and five of them better be pretty good or you are going to get torched when the game turns to a pass fest, which any game you have a chance of winning in the second half inevitably will. We've now missed quite a few opportunities at a Vince Lombardi because the Patriots could not stop a third down pass.