The Long-Awaited U-H Horizontal Value Board

[dryheat44]

I decided to do things a bit different this year, so here's the prelim stuff:

1) This is value based on the Patriots roster as of right now, 3:48 PM on April 14.
2) It is Patriots-specific, based on their current offensive and defensive schemes. Which is why you'll see Sam Bradford with a 4th round grade.
3) For the sake of preserving bandwith, I've limited my picks for 7th/UDFA values to three per position and taken guys such as Trevard Lindley, whom will almost certainly be drafted, off those lists. In fact, I tried to take the longview with those guys, ones who figure can improve with better coaching and better health, as opposed to someone who might be in better shape to contribute right now.
4) I really can't evaluate K/P/LS. I think a punter is in the cards. Matt Dodge of East Carolina is my favorite, but it's not like I've watched him take 100 snaps and punts from different distances and weather conditions.
5) Since last year, I've created a new position, which is denoted here as H-B, just to separate in-line tight ends from "move" tight ends (which is the new "shutdown" corner").
6) Here is the important part, and major change. I've attempted to make this a "living" draft board. That is, some values will fluctuate (downwards) after each draft pick. The values you see are factored with the assumption that that particular position hasn't been drafted yet. For example, if we draft Sam Bradford in the fourth, all other quarterbacks fall to UDFAs. For another, more realistic example, if a defensive end is drafted in round two, the other defensive ends on the board will lose at least a half-round worth of value, and perhaps considerably more. I think this is a realistic approach. I can't imagine Belichick will draft four safeties because they happen to be the best value at the time.
7) I am not a professional.

First Round Value:
DE Ndamukong Suh Nebraska
DE Gerald McCoy Oklahoma
OLB Derrick Morgan Georgia Tech
OT Russell Okung Oklahoma St
OT Trent Williams Oklahoma

Late 1st/Early 2nd
ILB Rolando McClain Alabama
OLB Jerry Hughes TCU
OLB Brandon Graham Michigan
OT Bruce Campbell Maryland
OT Charles Brown USC
RB CJ Spiller Clemson
S Eric Berry Tennessee
TE Jermaine Gresham Oklahoma
WR Golden Tate Notre Dame

Mid 2nd
C Maurkice Pouncey Florida
CB Joe Haden Florida
CB Kyle Wilson Boise St
DE Arthur Jones Syracuse
DE Jared Odrick Penn St
OLB Koa Misi Utah
OLB Sergio Kindle Texas
OLB Ricky Sapp Clemson
S Earl Thomas Texas
TE Rob Gronkowski Arizona
WR Arrelious Benn Illinois
WR Demaryius Thomas Georgia Tech
WR Taylor Price Ohio
WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma St

Late 2nd/Early 3rd
CB Devin McCourty Rutgers
CB Kareem Jackson Alabama
OT Anthony Davis Rutgers
RB Ben Tate Auburn
RB Ryan Matthews Fresno St
WR Blair White Michigan St
WR Mardy Gilyard Cincinnati
WR Andre Roberts The Citadel

Mid 3rd
CB Akwasi Owusu-Ansah Indiana Pennsylvania
CB Al Verner UCLA
H-B Aaron Hernandez Florida
H-B Dorin ****erson Pittsburgh
H-B Clay Harbor Missouri St
ILB/OLB Daniel Te'o-Nesheim Washington
RB Montario Hardesty Tennessee
RB Jahvid Best California

Late 3rd/Early 4th
CB AJ Jefferson Fresno St
CB Patrick Stoudamire Western Illinois
DE Vince Oghobaase Duke
DE Brandon Deaderick Alabama
DE Al Woods LSU
DE Clifton Geathers South Carolina
ILB/OLB James Ruffin No Iowa
OT Jared Veldheer Hillsdale
OT Brian Bulaga Iowa
RB Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech

Mid 4th
C Matt Tenant Boston College
ILB Danny Batten South Dakota St
ILB/OLB AJ Edds Iowa
NT Terrence Cody Alabama
OLB Jason Pierre-Paul South Florida
OLB Jason Worilds Virginia Tech
OLB Thaddeus Gibson Ohio St
OLB Adrian Tracy William & Mary
RB Chris Brown Oklahoma
RB Toby Gerhart Stanford
RB James Starks Buffalo
TE Scott Sicko New Hampshire
TE Jimmy Graham Miami
TE Jeff Cottam Tennessee
WR Joe Webb UAB
WR Scott Long Louisville
WR Damian Williams USC
WR Carlton Mitchell South Florida
WR Eric Decker Minnesota
WR Kyle Williams Arizona St

Late 4th
C JD Walton Baylor
C Ted Larsen North Carolina St
DE Tyson Alualu Cal
G John Jerry Mississippi
G/NT Mike Iupati Idaho
G/OT Rodger Saffold Indiana
H-B Dennis Pitta BYU
OLB Eric Norwood South Carolina
OLB Tim Knicky Stephen F. Austin
OLB Lindsey Witten UConn
OT Will Barker Virginia
OT Derek Hardman Eastern Kentucky
QB Sam Bradford Oklahoma
QB Jimmy Clausen Notre Dame
S TJ Ward Oregon
S Myron Rolle Florida St
S/CB Jerome Murphy South Florida
TE Tony Moeaki Iowa
WR Armanti Edwards Appalachian St
WR Jordan Shipley Texas
WR/RB Dexter McCluster Mississippi

Early-Mid 5th
DE Corey Peters Kentucky
H-B Jameson Konz Kent St
OLB Aaron Morgan Louisiana-Monroe
S Barry Church Toledo
S Jeromy Miles UMass
WR Emmanuel Sanders SMU
WR Jacoby Ford Clemson
WR Bryan Anderson Central Michigan
WR Duke Calhoun Memphis
WR David Gettis Baylor
WR Chris McGaha Arizona St

Mid-Late 5th
CB David Pender Purdue
CB Javier Arenas Alabama
CB/S Chris Cook Virginia
CB/S Brandon Ghee Wake Forest
CB/S Amari Spivey Iowa
DE Doug Worthington Ohio St
G Mitch Petrus Arkansas
G Jon Asamoah Illinois
G Charlie Tanner Texas
ILB Brandon Sharpe Texas Tech
ILB Brandon Spikes Florida
OLB Jermaine Cunningham Florida
OLB Dane Fletcher Montana St

 

[dryheat44]

Sixth Round
C Kevin Matthews Texas A&M
CB Nolan Carroll Maryland
CB RJ Stanford Utah
CB Walter Thurmond Oregon
CB Crezdon Butler Clemson
CB Aaron Berry Pittsburgh
CB Ben Burney Colorado
CB Kevin Thomas USC
CB/S Myron Lewis Vanderbilt
DE Sean Lissemore William & Mary
G Shaun Lauvao Arizona St
G Kurtis Gregory Missouri
G Shelley Smith Colorado St
G Marshall Newhouse TCU
ILB Jason Beauchamp UNLV
ILB Jacob Cutrera LSU
ILB (FB) Travis Goethel Arizona St
NT Cam Thomas North Carolina
NT Dan Williams Tennessee
NT/DE Linval Joseph East Carolina
NT/DE Torrell Troup Central Florida
NT/DE Jay Ross East Carolina
OLB Denzel Burrell Virginia
OLB George Johnson Rutgers
OLB Rahim Alem LSU
OT Thomas Welch Vanderbilt
OT Dennis Landolt Penn St
QB Jonathan Crompton Tennessee
RB Joique Bell Wayne St
RB Joe McKnight USC
RB Lonyae Miller Fresno St
RB Deji Karim Southern Illinois
RB Andre Anderson Tulane
RB Anthony Dixon Mississippi St
RB LeGarrette Blount Oregon
RB Michael Smith Arkansas
RB Andre Dixon UConn
S Rashad Jones Georgia
S Major Wright Florida St
S Kurt Coleman Ohio St
S Chad Jones LSU
TE Michael Hoomanawanui Illinois
TE Michael Palmer Clemson
TE Jim Dray Stanford
TE Colin Peek Alabama
TE Garrett Graham Wisconsin
TE Anthony McCoy USC
TE Greg Boone Virginia Tech
TE Caz Piurowski* Florida St
WR Brandon Lafell LSU
WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas
WR Damola Adeniji Oregon St

7th/UDFA
C John Estes Hawai'i
C Phil Costa Maryland
C Garrett Anderson South Carolina
CB Ross Weaver Michigan St
CB John Destin Tulsa
CB Josh Morris Weber St
DE Robert Rose Ohio St
DE Trey Jacobs Liberty
DE Charles Alexander LSU
G Dorian Brooks James Madison
G Brian Simmons Oklahoma
G Matt McCracken Richmond
H-B Jeff Cumberland Illinois
H-B Jesse Rack Buffalo
H-B Cody Slate Marshall
ILB Mike Johnson No Alabama
ILB Ayanga Okpokowuruk Duke
NT Kade Weston Georgia
NT Ekom Udofia Stanford
NT Callahan Bright Shaw
OLB Chris McCoy Middle Tennessee St
OLB Matt Marcorelle* Delaware
OT Michael Shumard Texas A&M
OT Andrew Tyshovnytsky Fordham
OT Matt Kopa* Stanford
QB Bill Stull Pittsburgh
QB Matt Nichols Eastern Washington
QB Andy Schmidt Eastern Michigan
RB Keiland Williams LSU
RB Dmitri Nance Arizona St
RB Stafon Johnson USC
S Mike Newton Buffalo
S Chinonso Echebelem Tulane
S Chris Maragos Wisconsin
TE Mickey Shuler Penn St
TE Nate Byham Pittsburgh
WR Kelton Tindal Newberry
WR Dustin Woods Miami (OH)
WR EJ Morton-Green Morgan St

 

[midwestpatsfan]

First off, WOW! great work and fun to read. I will definitely use this as a tool to do some last minute research on players. 2 names stuck out to me and was hoping you could give me your reasoning. 1 is Arthur Jones in the 2nd round tier and Aluala much further down in the 4th. What do you see in Jones that makes you like him that much better considering all the buzz behind Aluala?

 

[DaBruinz]

I am floored by some of your value ratings:

Jon Asamoah - mid 5th rounder??
Danny Batten - mid 4th??? At a position he's never played in, none-the-less.
James Ruffin - late 3rd/early 4th??? The guy is rated as a 7th round/FA
Terence Cody - mid 4th???
Brandon Ghee - Mid/late 5th???

 

[reflexblue]

Thank you uncle heat, it looks like it was a lot of work.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

7) I am not a professional.

But you can be had?

 

[Water Boy]

I like your board Uncle H.

I know its along shot, but based on your board I'd love to see:

22. B. Graham OLB
44. G. Tate WR
47. J. Ondrick DE
53. B. Tate RB
119. D. Pitta or T. Moeki TE

 

[Coach42]

Good work, nice effort I really appreciate the work you put in on that. Could you explain Golden Tate over Dez Bryant?

 

[dryheat44]

I am floored by some of your value ratings:

Jon Asamoah - mid 5th rounder??
Danny Batten - mid 4th??? At a position he's never played in, none-the-less.
James Ruffin - late 3rd/early 4th??? The guy is rated as a 7th round/FA
Terence Cody - mid 4th???
Brandon Ghee - Mid/late 5th???

I really don't factor the mainstream much in my opinion. Very briefly:

1. I don't find guards very valuable, except for the elite. Asamoah is about the #5 rated (to me) guard, if he's healthy.

2. Batten (and Ruffin, and others) seem a bit high. Again, it's specific to Patriots needs right now...and if they don't get a linebacker earlier, what is commonly called "a reach" could, and should, happen. Now, every year when I mock this out, there are usually 2nd round guys available in the 3rd, 3rd round guys available in the fifth, and 4th round guys available in free agency. What it means is I probably give too many guys equivalent grades. One year I only ranked 75. I think it's about 200 this year. Depends on my mood really. As you'll see in the vertical sort, (tomorrow perhaps), they're not ranked all that highly relative to other LBs. Although I like either one better than the short and slow Gator.

3. Yes. Originally I had Cody as a #2, but with Wilfork signed long term, and capable backups on the team, the fourth round is about as high as I'm willing to draft a guy whom isn't going to play all that much (remembering that one of the assumptions is a 3- defense). Same reasoning as Bradford and Clausen, really.

Thanks for the comments. I'll address more tomorrow.
5. Cornerback's really not a need (hence Haden in the 2nd), and there's something about Ghee's game I really don't like.

 

[sg14]

This guy makes the All Name team, G Matt McCracken Richmond

Draft him for name only,

Reminds me of Wallace and Grommit,,,

 

[dryheat44]

Good work, nice effort I really appreciate the work you put in on that. Could you explain Golden Tate over Dez Bryant?

First, let me explain the asterisks, which somehow I forgot to explain. Those three players are awaiting the NCAAs final ruling on receiving a sixth year of eligibility. I don't know why the NCAA waits so long. It looks like Piurowski and Marcorelle will be granted an extra year, Kopa denied.

To the question of Tate v Bryant, I hate Prima Donna WRs. They're almost always more trouble than they're worth. I mean there's a reason two all-pro WRs in their primes were traded this week. Well, one traded and one given away. I expect Bryant to be the last draft pick to sign a contract, and I don't trust Bryant to go to work after he gets paid. To me, those things negatively impact his value. Not to the point of completely removing him from my board (cough -- Mike Williams), but definitely sliding him down past where his talent would have him. If he had Larry Fitzgerald's character, he could go #1 overall.

In contrast, Tate is reported to be a subpar route runner, but I think this is probably due to the fact that Weis basically used him exclusively for screens and flys. I think by Training Camp he'll be up to speed. While I think that in time Benn could be the best WR in the draft, until I know how Brandon Tate is recovering from injury and picking up the playbook (Bill Belichick could answer this for me, but he won't), I'm assuming that I might need a WR to line up across from Randy Moss week 1. Thus, G Tate has additional value to the Patriots.

To the point of Jones v Alualu, I just feel that Jones is a better fit in a 2-gap 3-4, and while Alualu has a non-stop motor and good intangibles, Jones is a bigger and better football player. If Jones doesn't get hurt two years ago, he goes in the first round. When the season starts, he'll be two years removed from the knee injury and almost a year past the torn pectoral. Since he recently benched 30 reps, the chest doesn't concern me much. Alualu's a good story...but there's a significant risk that he becomes a good story the way Dan Klecko was a good story.

 

[WelshPat]

I think the Pats will have Spikes and Brandon Ghee both rated much higher than Myron Rolle. I get why people like him, but he is what he is as a player, average to below average

 

[patsfaninpa]

First, let me explain the asterisks, which somehow I forgot to explain. Those three players are awaiting the NCAAs final ruling on receiving a sixth year of eligibility. I don't know why the NCAA waits so long. It looks like Piurowski and Marcorelle will be granted an extra year, Kopa denied.

To the question of Tate v Bryant, I hate Prima Donna WRs. They're almost always more trouble than they're worth. I mean there's a reason two all-pro WRs in their primes were traded this week. Well, one traded and one given away. I expect Bryant to be the last draft pick to sign a contract, and I don't trust Bryant to go to work after he gets paid. To me, those things negatively impact his value. Not to the point of completely removing him from my board (cough -- Mike Williams), but definitely sliding him down past where his talent would have him. If he had Larry Fitzgerald's character, he could go #1 overall.

In contrast, Tate is reported to be a subpar route runner, but I think this is probably due to the fact that Weis basically used him exclusively for screens and flys. I think by Training Camp he'll be up to speed. While I think that in time Benn could be the best WR in the draft, until I know how Brandon Tate is recovering from injury and picking up the playbook (Bill Belichick could answer this for me, but he won't), I'm assuming that I might need a WR to line up across from Randy Moss week 1. Thus, G Tate has additional value to the Patriots.

To the point of Jones v Alualu, I just feel that Jones is a better fit in a 2-gap 3-4, and while Alualu has a non-stop motor and good intangibles, Jones is a bigger and better football player. If Jones doesn't get hurt two years ago, he goes in the first round. When the season starts, he'll be two years removed from the knee injury and almost a year past the torn pectoral. Since he recently benched 30 reps, the chest doesn't concern me much. Alualu's a good story...but there's a significant risk that he becomes a good story the way Dan Klecko was a good story.

Saw Syracuse at Penn St this year. Arthur Jones stuffed PSU's running game. And, he didn't have all that much talent around him like Iowa and Ohio St who did the same thing to PSU. I can see us taking him in 2nd round if we don't fill that position in the first round.
I'm kind of leaning to something like;
1 B.Graham - OLB. Michigan's defense under Rodriguez has been awful. But, it never affected his play.
2a. G. Tate - WR - Hope he's there. You just couldn't tackle him after he got the ball.
2b. A. Jones - DE - Cuse
2c Will probably trade out. But, would probably take a rb here.


What do you think of Andrew Quarless - TE - PSU? He's a specimen. Had a questionable attitude early in his career. But, supposedly turned it around. He even played on PSU's punt team and I saw him make a few tackles in the open field. Interview is the key with him I'm sure. I'd love to here his response when Belichick asks him about his tats on the back of each arm. Gods one left arm, Gift on right arm.

 

[dryheat44]

What do you think of Andrew Quarless - TE - PSU? He's a specimen. Had a questionable attitude early in his career. But, supposedly turned it around. He even played on PSU's punt team and I saw him make a few tackles in the open field. Interview is the key with him I'm sure. I'd love to here his response when Belichick asks him about his tats on the back of each arm. Gods one left arm, Gift on right arm.

Good, not great, tight end. There's enough talented TEs in this draft that I don't see the need to take a chance on him to see if he's changed his attitude.

 

[jeffbiologist]

I really don't factor the mainstream much in my opinion. Very briefly:

1. I don't find guards very valuable, except for the elite. Asamoah is about the #5 rated (to me) guard, if he's healthy.

2. Batten (and Ruffin, and others) seem a bit high. Again, it's specific to Patriots needs right now...and if they don't get a linebacker earlier, what is commonly called "a reach" could, and should, happen. Now, every year when I mock this out, there are usually 2nd round guys available in the 3rd, 3rd round guys available in the fifth, and 4th round guys available in free agency. What it means is I probably give too many guys equivalent grades. One year I only ranked 75. I think it's about 200 this year. Depends on my mood really. As you'll see in the vertical sort, (tomorrow perhaps), they're not ranked all that highly relative to other LBs. Although I like either one better than the short and slow Gator.

3. Yes. Originally I had Cody as a #2, but with Wilfork signed long term, and capable backups on the team, the fourth round is about as high as I'm willing to draft a guy whom isn't going to play all that much (remembering that one of the assumptions is a 3- defense). Same reasoning as Bradford and Clausen, really.

Thanks for the comments. I'll address more tomorrow.
5. Cornerback's really not a need (hence Haden in the 2nd), and there's something about Ghee's game I really don't like.

I see how you value guards relatively low, but how do you value Tackles so high(1st-2nd)on THIS team?? We have essentially 3 starters right?? I understand the value that these players have in the league but even after the season we have 2 signed long term.....If Cody is going in the 4th(??)wouldnt some of these Tackles slip as well??

 

[rsd]

Dryheat, love your stuff, and I remember reading this in past years.

Out of curiosity how "accurate" do you think your boards have been in comparison to the Patriots drafting and also just in general how well have some of your bigger binkies performed whether they were drafted by the Patriots or not?

 

[dryheat44]

I see how you value guards relatively low, but how do you value Tackles so high(1st-2nd)on THIS team?? We have essentially 3 starters right?? I understand the value that these players have in the league but even after the season we have 2 signed long term.....If Cody is going in the 4th(??)wouldnt some of these Tackles slip as well??

I don't think Light will be here in 2011. I don't believe Cody will be around in the fourth. I believe that if I was running the Patriots draft, I wouldn't draft him until the fourth. Pioli will snap him up in the second.