How About Drafting Zero Second Rounders?

[mgteich]

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

A) I'm not sure that I am as excited over the players in 24-43 range as many of you are. Perhaps there are 20 first round quality players in this group. Personally, I don't see it that way. See the attached to see how much you really want the 1C players.

B) I'm not even sure I am ecstatic about picking 3 of the 2B players. Is the middle of the second really the sweet spot for value? Again, I don't see it.

C) We have talked long and hard about wide receivers and tight ends. Gosselin has taken the same position that YOU ALL have been suggesting. This draft is very deep in both TE and WR, with great values st both of these positions in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

D) Many discussion/plans here seem to revolve around the hope of a player or two or three dropping within our reach or into our laps. Maybe that will happen, perhaps not.

E) Just BTW, I am fine with trading up to 16 for McLain or even Morgan, but I don't think that this will be an opportunity.

Personally, I like the players in the 13-23 range as far as value, 1B on the attached list.
======================================

PART ONE: TRADING UP (2 seconds for a first)
-------------------------------------------
1) I'd rather trade up! I would use two 2nds to get another 1st.
2) I would hope for two of Hughes, Dunlop, Odrick, Griffen and Wilson.
(with at least one of the OLB's a must)
3) So, my hope would be that 3 of these players would be there at 20 and that we would trade up.


PART TWO: TRADING DOWN (a 2nd for 2 thirds or a 3rd and a high 4th)
------------------------------------------
Depending on who is there with our last 2nd rounder, I would likely want to trade out of the second and end up with three picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

BOTTOM LINE WITH NO SECOND ROUNDERS
---------------------
How would you feel about
18 HUGHES or GRIFFEN or DUNLOP
22 ODRICK or WILSON or GRIFFEN OR DUNLOP
3rd MOEAKI or ****ERSON
*3rd/4th SHIPLEY or LEFELL
*4th HARDESTY or DWYER or TATE

* An alternative is to use both picks to trade up in third where there is a better choice of wide receiver talent.
================

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

You also forgot to add the Pats have had little success drafting in the second round since 2001. Off the top of my head the Pats only successful players were Branch, Light and Wilson for 2 years. 2009 is yet to be determined.

 

[WhiZa]

I'm all for having 5 1st rounders next year

 

[DaBruinz]

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

A) I'm not sure that I am as excited over the players in 24-43 range as many of you are. Perhaps there are 20 first round quality players in this group. Personally, I don't see it that way. See the attached to see how much you really want the 1C players. I think it's kinda ironic that you slam the "1c" players mentioned and then you have the Pats taking 2 of them in your scenario.

B) I'm not even sure I am ecstatic about picking 3 of the 2B players. Is the middle of the second really the sweet spot for value? Again, I don't see it. You're making an assumption that only "2B" and worse players will be available for the Pats picks. Not to mention the assumption , in general, in that this is how the Pats see these players.

C) We have talked long and hard about wide receivers and tight ends. Gosselin has taken the same position that YOU ALL have been suggesting. This draft is very deep in both TE and WR, with great values st both of these positions in the 3rd and 4th rounds. Yeah, so. The team gets the player based on where they think that player provides value. You've not really shown how there isn't value for the Patriots at their picks.

D) Many discussion/plans here seem to revolve around the hope of a player or two or three dropping within our reach or into our laps. Maybe that will happen, perhaps not.

E) Just BTW, I am fine with trading up to 16 for McLain or even Morgan, but I don't think that this will be an opportunity.

Personally, I like the players in the 13-23 range as far as value, 1B on the attached list. There are only 21 players in the 1A and 1B grouping.
======================================

PART ONE: TRADING UP (2 seconds for a first)
-------------------------------------------
1) I'd rather trade up! I would use two 2nds to get another 1st.
2) I would hope for two of Hughes, Dunlop, Odrick, Griffen and Wilson.
(with at least one of the OLB's a must)
3) So, my hope would be that 3 of these players would be there at 20 and that we would trade up.


PART TWO: TRADING DOWN (a 2nd for 2 thirds or a 3rd and a high 4th)
------------------------------------------
Depending on who is there with our last 2nd rounder, I would likely want to trade out of the second and end up with three picks in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

BOTTOM LINE WITH NO SECOND ROUNDERS
---------------------
How would you feel about
18 HUGHES 1C or GRIFFEN 2A or DUNLOP 1C
22 ODRICK 1B or WILSON 1Cor GRIFFEN OR DUNLOP
3rd MOEAKI or ****ERSON
3rd/4th SHIPLEY or LEFELL
4th HARDESTY or DWYER or TATE
================

ProFootballWeekly.com - PFW's exclusive draft value chart

Mg - You are all over the place here. First you slam the 1C type players and then all but 1 of the options you offer up for the 1st round are rated 1C or 2A. You basically contradict yourself.

While this list is probably a good facsimile of what the Patriots use, I doubt it's exactly how they have it.

As mentioned in another thread, it's likely we'll see the Pats trade down one of their seconds into the 3rd and I wouldn't be surprised to see some players taken who are considered reaches by the mediots. Just so the Pats make sure they get their man.

 

[mgteich]

You are correct about the discrepancies. I used the PFW list so that people could comment. Actually, I disagree with some of thier predictions. Obviously, I think that they have underrated Griffen, Dunlop and Wilson. I do think that they are 1B value players.

If PFW is correct on when these players will be drafted, then it is right to try to get into the 22-24 range with two picks, rather than the 13-23 range.
=================
See below for my first round board from a couple of weeks ago. I have moved Mays off the first round board and moved Hughes on. I believe Hughes is moving up fast.

TOP 16
==========
QB Bradford, Clausen
OT Okung, Bulaga, Williams
RB Spiller
DL Suh, McCoy, Morgan, Williams, Pierre-Paul
LB McClain, Graham
DB Hayden, Berry, Thomas
================================================== ========
================================================== ========
Next 16
========
WR Bryant, Tate, Thomas
TE Greshem
RB Matthews
OT Campbell, Davis
C Pouncey
OG Iupati
DE Odrick, Griffen
LB Hughes, Kindle, Dunlop, Witherspoon
DB Wilson

Mg - You are all over the place here. First you slam the 1C type players and then all but 1 of the options you offer up for the 1st round are rated 1C or 2A. You basically contradict yourself.

While this list is probably a good facsimile of what the Patriots use, I doubt it's exactly how they have it.

As mentioned in another thread, it's likely we'll see the Pats trade down one of their seconds into the 3rd and I wouldn't be surprised to see some players taken who are considered reaches by the mediots. Just so the Pats make sure they get their man.

 

[Isaac]

You mean sort of like last year? When they took:
- A late second rounder (Chung)
- A borderline first rounder (Brace)
- A late first rounder (Butler)
- A fourth rounder (Vollmer)

You'll probably get your wish mgteich. Even if they stay at 44-53, they probably won't take any "2B" players.

 

[mgteich]

Please list all the sources that had Brace as a 1st rounder last year. I want to be sure to ignore their 2010 information.

With regard to Vollmer, Gosselin had him at 3A. He was picked 2C.

You mean sort of like last year? When they took:
- A late second rounder (Chung)
- A borderline first rounder (Brace)
- A late first rounder (Butler)
- A fourth rounder (Vollmer)

You'll probably get your wish mgteich. Even if they stay at 44-53, they probably won't take any "2B" players.

 

[DaBruinz]

Please list all the sources that had Brace as a 1st rounder last year. I want to be sure to ignore their 2010 information.

With regard to Vollmer, Gosselin had him at 3A. He was picked 2C.

Please provide the link to Gosselin listing Vollmer as a 3A.

Also, the list you provided wasn't from Gosselin. It was from Nolan Nawrocki.

Many of the draft magazines and sites had Brace as a late 1st/early 2nd pick. And if you're making a basis to avoid them based on one year, your violating rule number 1 of evaluating a draft.

 

[Since1971]

You are correct about the discrepancies. I used the PFW list so that people could comment. Actually, I disagree with some of thier predictions. Obviously, I think that they have underrated Griffen, Dunlop and Wilson. I do think that they are 1B value players.

If PFW is correct on when these players will be drafted, then it is right to try to get into the 22-24 range with two picks, rather than the 13-23 range.
=================
See below for my first round board from a couple of weeks ago. I have moved Mays off the first round board and moved Hughes on. I believe Hughes is moving up fast.

TOP 16
==========
QB Bradford, Clausen
OT Okung, Bulaga, Williams
RB Spiller
DL Suh, McCoy, Morgan, Williams, Pierre-Paul
LB McClain, Graham
DB Hayden, Berry, Thomas
================================================== ========
================================================== ========
Next 16
========
WR Bryant, Tate, Thomas
TE Greshem
RB Matthews
OT Campbell, Davis
C Pouncey
OG Iupati
DE Odrick, Griffen
LB Hughes, Kindle, Dunlop, Witherspoon
DB Wilson

Its actually not a bad strategy. With 4 picks in first two round there are any number of options to exercise. This stratey is a little of both, we end up with two 1st rounders, hopefully a defensive and offensive playmaker. (Not going to name names, at this point, a week and 1/2 away and we all know the names and have preferences) trading back with one 2nd rounder and having a third and 2 4th's gives us opportunity for depth. T/E another receiver/running back, offensive lineman whatever. This strategy utilizes the drafts depth but we go after playmakers on both side of the ball. We need that and are one of the few teams in the draft that could do this. (assuming that only this years picks and no players are involved.)

 

[Nonentity]

In all honesty, I really don't care where we draft our players. I want to come out of this draft with:

1. A starting-caliber OLB (either Sam or Jack)
2. A developmental OLB to play the opposite side to the other OLB (i.e. either Jack or Sam)
3. A wide receiver who can play either split end or flanker
4. A tight end who can block
5. An inside linebacker who can play coverage at the Mike position
   
   Optional:
6. A running back
7. An interior lineman

No pressure, Bill.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Mgteich, I'm starting to really like your idea of two first round talents and 1 second round talent instead of 1 first and 3 2nds.

#47 and #53 are worth 800 points total. What would you do mgteich?

Trade those two picks for #21 (valued at 800 points)
Trade those two picks for #28 and #91 (valued at 800 points)

#22
#28
#44
#91

or

#21
#22
#44

EDIT: #22 and #44 is enough to trade up to #11. :O That's enticing depending who's there.

 

[mgteich]

I'd rather have 21 and 22. This is the strategy suggested by mayo two months ago.

I would then likely trade down with the 44 for a lower second and a third, or for two thirds. 58 and 90 would be fair on points. HOWEVER, staying at 44 is fine if the player that Belichick wants is there.

ALTERNATIVE ONE
We we would have
21 1st
22 1st
58 2nd
90 3rd

instead of the 1st and three seconds we have now.

ALTERNATIVE TWO (as you say)
21
22
44

================

YOUR EDIT AND THE CHOICE OF MOVING UP MUCH HIGHER
There is another thread about using a second and our 22 to move up to pick up a blue-chip stud like Morgan or McLain.

This would still leave us two seconds and options to move up with them, stay or move down. Most likely I would be to move down with one picking up a third and still having four picks by Friday night.

Mgteich, I'm starting to really like your idea of two first round talents and 1 second round talent instead of 1 first and 3 2nds.

#47 and #53 are worth 800 points total. What would you do mgteich?

Trade those two picks for #21 (valued at 800 points)
Trade those two picks for #28 and #91 (valued at 800 points)

#22
#28
#44
#91

or

#21
#22
#44

EDIT: #22 and #44 is enough to trade up to #11. :O That's enticing depending who's there.

 

[efeene]

McShay was co-hosting one of the WEEI radio shows a couple weeks ago and he said he had Vollmer projected as a 2nd rounder. Said he had taken a lot of crap from other "experts" about it and was the happiest guy in the world when Pats took him round 2 haha.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Please list all the sources that had Brace as a 1st rounder last year. I want to be sure to ignore their 2010 information.

With regard to Vollmer, Gosselin had him at 3A. He was picked 2C.

MG I agree with you 100%, there is no way Brace was a first round projection last year. The Sporting News magazine had him listed as a third rounder and in the weaknesses column they hit the nail on the head.

"Does not finish enough plays. when initial burst is thwarted, gets upright, allowing opponents to lock up and ride him out of plays. Struggles to move well through traffic. Lacks pass rush moves." (per the sporting news 09 draft mag)

Talk about being 100% accurate, that is exactly what we saw from Brace.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'd rather have 21 and 22. This is the strategy suggested by mayo two months ago.

I would then likely trade down with the 44 for a lower second and a third, or for two thirds. 58 and 90 would be fair on points. HOWEVER, staying at 44 is fine if the player that Belichick wants is there.

ALTERNATIVE ONE
We we would have
21 1st
22 1st
58 2nd
90 3rd

instead of the 1st and three seconds we have now.

ALTERNATIVE TWO (as you say)
21
22
44

================

YOUR EDIT AND THE CHOICE OF MOVING UP MUCH HIGHER
There is another thread about using a second and our 22 to move up to pick up a blue-chip stud like Morgan or McLain.

This would still leave us two seconds and options to move up with them, stay or move down. Most likely would be to move down with one picking up a third and still having four picks by Friday night.

Sometimes I think we tend to lock in on the negatives of players too much. We need to remember that these players also bring positives.

Until last season,BB had a record of moving back in the draft because there were multiple players at a particular position left on the board when the Pats went on the clock.

The time he moved up for Warren was because there was a run on DT's and Warren was the last one left standing and BB wanted to make sure no one swooped in and took him.

And when BB was operating under that set of rules, he was easier to figure out. But then last year everything changed and he basically said that draft had 10 to 15 players with first round grades and then it had about 60 players with second round grades, so he traded back and accumulated a ton of second and third round picks and then flipped some thirds for 2010 seconds.

This draft is the opposite of last year. It has 40 to 50 players with first round grades and another 30 to 40 players with second round grades. Under this scenario, I think bb is back to revert to his thinking of two years ago. He is going to target a rich position (D Line I think) and based on how the draft falls, that determines his strategy.

So if at #22 there are multiple D Lineman that he likes on the board, he will trade back a bit. (Remember San Diego and the Jets are back there and both want Mt. Cody) However if there is a huge run on D Lineman in the teens, I expect him to go up and grab whichever one he can by using the second rounders.

The best thing BB can do in this draft is hit on all the second rounders, much like he hit on three second rounders last year.(Jury still out on Brace.) I also expect BB to kick the tires on getting Suh; at a bargain basement price, especially if the Lions are sick of paying huge $$$$ for top 5 picks. If BB can get up there without breaking the draft pick bank,I think he would do it in a heartbeat.

 

[mgteich]

If our primary need was DT, where the depth is greeat, I would agree with you stated approach. As it is, I think that there is NOT great depth at OLB and pass-rushing DE/OLB. Do you disagree?

1) Do you believe that there is great depth at OLB/DE or even at ILB. Is there really a Morgan or McClain who might be available anywhere near 22?

2) And do you think that there will three or four OLB/DE's of approximately equal value to Belichick at 22 to cause us to want us to move down a few spots [BTW if this were so, I would expect us to use 2 2nd's to move up and take two OLB's.]

3) Finally, do you agree that he critical need this year is at OLB/DE? We have Banta-Cain and nobody at five roster spots: OLB, OLB, OLB, OLB, DE/OLB. Are you really counting on Ninkovich, Crable, Woods and re-signing Burgess to fill the roster spots (plus a 2nd round rookie)?

Sometimes I think we tend to lock in on the negatives of players too much. We need to remember that these players also bring positives.

Until last season,BB had a record of moving back in the draft because there were multiple players at a particular position left on the board when the Pats went on the clock.

The time he moved up for Warren was because there was a run on DT's and Warren was the last one left standing and BB wanted to make sure no one swooped in and took him.

And when BB was operating under that set of rules, he was easier to figure out. But then last year everything changed and he basically said that draft had 10 to 15 players with first round grades and then it had about 60 players with second round grades, so he traded back and accumulated a ton of second and third round picks and then flipped some thirds for 2010 seconds.

This draft is the opposite of last year. It has 40 to 50 players with first round grades and another 30 to 40 players with second round grades. Under this scenario, I think bb is back to revert to his thinking of two years ago. He is going to target a rich position (D Line I think) and based on how the draft falls, that determines his strategy.

So if at #22 there are multiple D Lineman that he likes on the board, he will trade back a bit. (Remember San Diego and the Jets are back there and both want Mt. Cody) However if there is a huge run on D Lineman in the teens, I expect him to go up and grab whichever one he can by using the second rounders.

The best thing BB can do in this draft is hit on all the second rounders, much like he hit on three second rounders last year.(Jury still out on Brace.) I also expect BB to kick the tires on getting Suh; at a bargain basement price, especially if the Lions are sick of paying huge $$$$ for top 5 picks. If BB can get up there without breaking the draft pick bank,I think he would do it in a heartbeat.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I'd rather have 21 and 22. This is the strategy suggested by mayo two months ago.

I would then likely trade down with the 44 for a lower second and a third, or for two thirds. 58 and 90 would be fair on points. HOWEVER, staying at 44 is fine if the player that Belichick wants is there.

ALTERNATIVE ONE
We we would have
21 1st
22 1st
58 2nd
90 3rd

instead of the 1st and three seconds we have now.

ALTERNATIVE TWO (as you say)
21
22
44

================

YOUR EDIT AND THE CHOICE OF MOVING UP MUCH HIGHER
There is another thread about using a second and our 22 to move up to pick up a blue-chip stud like Morgan or McLain.

This would still leave us two seconds and options to move up with them, stay or move down. Most likely I would be to move down with one picking up a third and still having four picks by Friday night.

I like the 21, 22, 58, 90 the best. Picture drafting both Odrick and Graham, the defense is set if that happens.

58 could then be WR, and 90 a TE.

 

[patfanken]

Just want to say thanks for all the information you guys brought to this thread. This is much more interesting that listening to the talking (****)heads in the media.

...and not for nothing I'm hoping the Pats opt for QUALITY over quantity with our 12 picks this year (though I know 4 are non-trade-able comps) As far a players go, I'm hoping that we find 4 players who will be significant contributors this year, and starters in 2011. (Basically I'm counting on 3 picks at the top of the draft filling that bill, along with one of the lower picks who turn out to be better than expected (ie Pryor and Edelman)

As far as position go - I feel we really need to get a DE prospect, an OLB who can be a legit situational pass rushing threat, and a top end TE/WR. We don't need both,

I DON'T want to see us draft 12 or more players when there are probably only 5-6 realistic spots on the roster for rookies. I don't want to see a reprise of 2007 when we brought in a lot of rookies that were never going to make the roster, regardless of the fact that more than a few were good enough to make AN NFL roster....just not ours

So in my ideal draft we manage to get 3 players in the top 45. add a third round with a trade, send 2 picks into next year, and find one player on the 3rd day that is good enough to be a 2011 starter regardless of position.

Four starters out of any draft is a great haul, even better when you are an established mature team.

 

[patsfan-1982]

draft Jared Odrick, with #22 and trade #44 and #53 to the cowboys for #27 and take Jerry Hughes, or Sergio Kindle, keep #47 and draft Mardy Gilyard, or Rob Gronkowski, and ill be happy with that.

 

[mgteich]

NFL draft-pick value chart - NFL - ESPN

I think that we should only need #47 (430) plus #53 (370) to get Hughes at 21 (800). Moving to 21 gives us a better chance at getting Hughes or another top linebacker.

In any case, I strongly agree that trading up by using two seconds for Odrick and Hughes.

draft Jared Odrick, with #22 and trade #44 and #53 to the cowboys for #27 and take Jerry Hughes, or Sergio Kindle, keep #47 and draft Mardy Gilyard, or Rob Gronkowski, and ill be happy with that.