#22 vs. #44, Position by Position

[patchick]

With 3 2nd-round picks in an ultra-deep draft, it would be great to be able to #22 as a luxury "BPA" pick. Go for an impact player, regardless (almost) of position, then start filling holes in round 2. Which made me wonder...is there a key position that the Pats could NOT realistically address in the 2nd and beyond? Where are the talent dropoffs between #22 and #44?

I tried to break this down, using the mock at mynfldraft.com as my baseline since they delivered a fairly sensible set of selections to the Pats (Odrick, LaFell, Misi, Anthony McCoy). Here are the players they have available at the two points at the most talked-about positions:

OLB
22: Sergio Kindle, Jerry Hughes, Carlos Dunlap, Ricky Sapp
44: Koa Misi, Austen Lane, Greg Hardy, Daniel Te'o-Nesheim

DE
22: Jared Odrick
24: Alex Carrington, Corey Wootton

WR
22: Demaryius Thomas, Arrelious Benn, Golden Tate, Damian Williams
44: Brandon LaFell, Dexter McCluster, Carlton Mitchell, Eric Decker, Taylor Price, Jacoby Ford, Mardy Gilyard

TE
22: Jermaine Gresham
44: Absolutely everybody else

RB
22: Jahvid Best
44: Jonathan Dwyer, Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, Montario Hardesty

OT
22: Anthony Davis, Charles Brown
44: Rodger Saffold, Jared Veldheer

Other notable players drafted soon after #22:
OG/C Maurkice Pouncey, CB Kyle Wilson, DT Terrence Cody, LB Sean Weatherspoon


What do you think? Who's the pure BPA -- and is there a position that absolutely cannot wait?

 

[SeauOUCH]

I don't love any of the players you listed @22, that list is assuming nobody from the top 15 falls to us at 22 though.

If I had to pick one player from that group it would be Hughes or Pouncy, I like Hughes much better than any of the other LB's listed & Pouncy is a can't miss prospect with a low positional value.

If Graham, Spiller, McClain don't slide to us I hope we trade back to the top of the 2nd & take our highest ranked BPA that slides from that group.

With the Washington trade I'm hoping Clauson slides to 22 & we score a coup of draft pick spoils from someone trading up.

There seems to be ALOT of prospects in this draft that have similiar value from 20-45 or so.

 

[Coach42]

Personally I think that this draft is deep enough that we should absolutely use 22 to take the best player available or {GASP} trade back a couple of slots like we did last year and stockpile a few more picks. We have plenty of holes so why not get some more ammo in one of the deepest drafts in a while.

For instance lets say Clausen and Bradford go in the top ten and some team like the Vikings love Colt McCoy. I would absolutely trade down to 30 for a third this year or a second next.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'd add Ryan Mathews to the #22 list.

But you've hit the nail on the head of why I still haven't come to a satisfctory (to me) pick at #22 because whoever I pick I have a good, secondary choice we could get with 2a. As of now De. Thomas is my pick but there's so many WR it's tough to stick with him. Same with Mathews given that I like Hardesty a lot.

 

[patchick]

I'd add Ryan Mathews to the #22 list.

But you've hit the nail on the head of why I still haven't come to a satisfctory (to me) pick at #22 because whoever I pick I have a good, secondary choice we could get with 2a. As of now De. Thomas is my pick but there's so many WR it's tough to stick with him. Same with Mathews given that I like Hardesty a lot.

Matthews went at #20 in the mock I was using. But by and large, I'm finding the same thing. FWIW, though, Pouncey rates rounds above any other interior lineman on my board.

 

[Metaphors]

I think it is DE since Odrick fits as a base 3-4 DE but Carrington and Wootton are too light. Not sure if Belichick considers Alualu, Houston or Woods as options later in the draft.

OLB seems to have more options, meaning a higher chance of someone being available at #44. But we don't know how Belichick evaluates them so his viable list could be much smaller.

So I would list DE as 1A and OLB as 1B. Hard to argue with either of those. Ideal would be walking away with Odrick+Hughes, but that may not be practical.

 

[patsfan-1982]

for me pick #22 has to be defense. Sergio Kindle, is the best all round OLB in the draft. Jerry Hughes, is the best pure pass rusher. but dose not have the size that BB wants Jared Odrick, is the guy that would not have much to talk about stat wise as a rookie but would have the biggest impact on the defense as a rookie. and they can get Koa Misi, or jason worilds at #44 to play OLB

 

[bbell31]

I think it is DE since Odrick fits as a base 3-4 DE but Carrington and Wootton are too light. Not sure if Belichick considers Alualu, Houston or Woods as options later in the draft.

OLB seems to have more options, meaning a higher chance of someone being available at #44. But we don't know how Belichick evaluates them so his viable list could be much smaller.

So I would list DE as 1A and OLB as 1B. Hard to argue with either of those. Ideal would be walking away with Odrick+Hughes, but that may not be practical.

i agree hughes/kindle/sapp, then add mathews, hardesty, veldheer, saffold, gronkowski, pitta, hernandez, or a potential moss replacement with our other 2nd round picks

 

[Thirdbasekid24]

Daniel Teo-neisheim played DE in a 4-3 for the Huskies, he would make for a huge OLB at 265 lbs and only ran a 4.8. Maybe you're thinking of Donald Butler? Either way I'd love to have either of them on the team. Both extremely hard workers and one of the few bright spots on the huskies the past few seasons. Butler is projected to go late 2nd/3rd now. Teo could probably be had 5th or lower.

 

[mgteich]

If Belichick judges HUGHES to be a fit, and he is there, then I suspect that he will be the choice.
==============================================
I have five that seem to be much better than what we can get in the 2nd. Belichick may also have Thomas there at WR.


ODRICK
He is the complete 3-4 DE, ready to contribute. If we can't get him, I'm fine with Carrington, but I think the difference is large.

GRESHAM
Again, this is not at all close for me. I expect us to try to trade a 2nd for a TE. Otherwise, Gresham is a strong possibility.

HUGHES
As we get closer and closer, Hughes seems more and more like the real deal.

WILSON
It's now or never. He's a stud. If we don't see the need, then we can go with what we have.

POUNCEY
Pouncy is our instant Game Day backup for the interior line positions, and could start at any of the positions if there was a need. He would expected to be a starter in 2011 wherever he is needed.

 

[Water Boy]

at #22 I'd be happy with:

Graham
Kindle
Odrick
Pouncey
G. Tate


It would be interesting to see the theory of value grouping in effect here for this draft, especially for the DE/OLB position.

 

[Marqui]

or a potential moss replacement with our other 2nd round picks

Lulz, there's no one on Moss's level in the 2nd round

 

[patchick]

If Belichick judges HUGHES to be a fit, and he is there, then I suspect that he will be the choice.
==============================================
I have five that seem to be much better than what we can get in the 2nd. Belichick may also have Thomas there at WR.


ODRICK
He is the complete 3-4 DE, ready to contribute. If we can't get him, I'm fine with Carrington, but I think the difference is large.

GRESHAM
Again, this is not at all close for me. I expect us to try to trade a 2nd for a TE. Otherwise, Gresham is a strong possibility.

HUGHES
As we get closer and closer, Hughes seems more and more like the real deal.

WILSON
It's now or never. He's a stud. If we don't see the need, then we can go with what we have.

POUNCEY
Pouncy is our instant Game Day backup for the interior line positions, and could start at any of the positions if there was a need. He would expected to be a starter in 2011 wherever he is needed.

Surely we didn't agree this much in earlier years?

If the draft played out as in that mock, I'd be very tempted by Kyle Wilson to give the Pats an absolutely tremendous defensive backfield.

I'm queasier on Odrick than you are, but I can appreciate the intersection of need and value there. Hughes I love, if the Pats think he fits the direction their scheme is moving in. Gresham, I'd rather not.

 

[anotherbruschi]

==============================================
I have five that seem to be much better than what we can get in the 2nd. Belichick may also have Thomas there at WR.


ODRICK
He is the complete 3-4 DE, ready to contribute. If we can't get him, I'm fine with Carrington, but I think the difference is large.

GRESHAM
Again, this is not at all close for me. I expect us to try to trade a 2nd for a TE. Otherwise, Gresham is a strong possibility.

HUGHES
As we get closer and closer, Hughes seems more and more like the real deal.

WILSON
It's now or never. He's a stud. If we don't see the need, then we can go with what we have.

POUNCEY
Pouncy is our instant Game Day backup for the interior line positions, and could start at any of the positions if there was a need. He would expected to be a starter in 2011 wherever he is needed.[/QUOTE]

I want to get a little greedy and trade up to get an additional 1st round pick using next years Patriots #1 and the Patriots #2 from this year.

With these two 1st round picks take Odrick, who will starting out of necessity, and Pouncey, who will be starting at center in 2010.

The Tom Brady Super Bowl window of opportunity isn't going to stay open forever.

 

[Metaphors]

If Belichick judges HUGHES to be a fit, and he is there, then I suspect that he will be the choice.
==============================================
I have five that seem to be much better than what we can get in the 2nd. Belichick may also have Thomas there at WR.


ODRICK
He is the complete 3-4 DE, ready to contribute. If we can't get him, I'm fine with Carrington, but I think the difference is large.

GRESHAM
Again, this is not at all close for me. I expect us to try to trade a 2nd for a TE. Otherwise, Gresham is a strong possibility.

HUGHES
As we get closer and closer, Hughes seems more and more like the real deal.

WILSON
It's now or never. He's a stud. If we don't see the need, then we can go with what we have.

POUNCEY
Pouncy is our instant Game Day backup for the interior line positions, and could start at any of the positions if there was a need. He would expected to be a starter in 2011 wherever he is needed.

I'm inclined to agree with you. Seems like Belichick is checking a lot of DL possibilities. Could be a smoke screen or just due dilligence, but it could be that he is anticipating addressing DE in the 2nd round...not at #22.

Your list is solid in that I wouldn't be disappointed to hear any of those names called for the Pats. That isn't always the case (Brace last year for example). Odrick, Hughes and Gresham combine good value with immediate need. Wilson and Pouncey are upgrades, but they are in key areas for getting the Pats another title.

 

[BelichickFan]

Hughes I love, if the Pats think he fits the direction their scheme is moving in.

Hughes could work for me as long as his height doesn't prevent it. I've been really trying to concentrate on guys who are competitors, always play hard and love the game and that's one thing that is not lacking with Hughes. Again, though, Hughes or similar could be there at #44, the point of the thread.

I would have no problem with a CB like Wilson as a foursome of Bodden/Butler/Wilson/Wilhite would be sweet (and Wilhite may be a #4 guy). I feel similarly about Safety as a threesome of Meriweather/Chung/newguy would be nice but Berry and Thomas both look like they'll be gone.

I'm to the point that I almost don't care about the position, we have three #2s to fill holes, I'm more interested in getting a great player whether it's an OLB, WR, RB or whatever.

 

[Wheelssps]

Lulz, there's no one on Moss's level in the 2nd round

There's a decent chance it will turn out that there was no one of Moss's level in the ENTIRE draft........

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

I'm to the point that I almost don't care about the position, we have three #2s to fill holes, I'm more interested in getting a great player whether it's an OLB, WR, RB or whatever.

For some reason I think BB is going to turn one of those seconds into a 2011 first rounder to give us three under possible a new rookie pay scale. Teams may be calling on draft day and if BB does not like what he sees he would be able to possibly collect three first rounder in 2011.

Personally I think we go BPA who ever is sliding at #22 then target OLB, OL, WR or DE with our three second rounders.

I too think Hughes is a must have for us but I am not sure I would take the chance he would be there where we pick in round 2.

 

[bucky]

First, I think you're missing Worilds in your list of OLBs at 44. He is much smaller than Hughes or Graham, and is quicker.

More importantly though, I think the reason we shouldn't just go BPA is because there are so many needs this year and the draft is so deep. I think we need to come out of this draft with:

MUST HAVES:
OLB
TE
WR

HIGH PRIORITY:
DE
RB
second OLB/3rd down edge rusher
second TE and/or WR
nickel CB

So if the BPA is Pouncey or McClain, I have a real problem with that. Even Wilson I'd have to swallow hard and hope he develops into the next Revis.

The more I look at the players available at 22, the more I'm in favor of trading down. The following players are really the only ones I'd be thrilled with at 22:

Morgan - almost impossible for him to slide this far
Hughes - that would mean BB feels he can make the transition, and that's good enough for me.
Graham - ditto.
Kindle - I have some character concerns about him, so again it would tell me BB has done the diligence.
Mathews - just might be too good to pass up.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I want to get a little greedy and trade up to get an additional 1st round pick using next years Patriots #1 and the Patriots #2 from this year.

With these two 1st round picks take Odrick, who will starting out of necessity, and Pouncey, who will be starting at center in 2010.

The Tom Brady Super Bowl window of opportunity isn't going to stay open forever.

I am with you on this. Quality over quantity. #22 and #44 and our #1 in 2011 to Detroit or Washington for Suh.