Maroney best goal-line back in AFC East

[Deus Irae]

"Maroney scored eight goal-line touchdowns, 1.65 more than the decade average would suggest. That was the division's best differential. Maroney also converted three more first downs than the average in short-yardage situations, third-best in the AFC East."

Just what are you pounding your chest about? First off last time I checked the AFC East only consists of four teams and he was tops in one catergory and 3rd out of 4 in another. Secondly how does goal line TD's average qualify him as a better back than others. Was it because he had more attempts, field position, a QB where other teams had to look out for the pass or is it because he didn't run it in from the 15 or 20 yard line? I'd take any of last years AFC east starters over Maroney as well as some of the backups (Ricky Williams, Leon Washington) for sure. Sabermetric geeks have done a good job of ruining baseball let's keep them out of football where they have almost no relevance.

Just to point out what should have been obvious:

Maroney also converted three more first downs than the average in short-yardage situations

You ignored that part when you were bolding the second portion of the sentence. If you take it just by the numbers, he was better than average in short yardage situations and better than average in goal line situations (and best in the AFCE in goal line situations). Given that the division featured Brown/Williams, Jones and Lynch as the running back competition, those numbers are good things.

 

[RayClay]

I was very happy with Maroney's running style in the second half of the season. He ran like that against San Diego in 2007, then regressed.

Whether that was because of shoulder problems, or other reasons, I would be ecstatic if he kept up his hard running style especially since he has tremendous upside if he forces teams to stack the middle, since he's a great open field runner.

Of course, a full season of that hard running style would be welcome, as well as always running hard while physically able.

 

[dryheat44]

Really? How many times has he fumbled at the goal line in his career?

Off the top of my head, I can think of three last year. Fatal flaw in Barnwell's methodology.

 

[cstjohn17]

Off the top of my head, I can think of three last year. Fatal flaw in Barnwell's methodology.

Big time fatal flaw, any fumble is worth 20 lashes and if it is inside the opponent 5 yard line it should be immediate death...

Don't forget (I tried to forget) the 2007 AFC Championship.... Fumbles Maroney coughed it up in that game too.

 

[Deus Irae]

Off the top of my head, I can think of three last year. Fatal flaw in Barnwell's methodology.

Maroney's career is longer than just one season.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Just to point out what should have been obvious:



You ignored that part when you were bolding the second portion of the sentence. If you take it just by the numbers, he was better than average in short yardage situations and better than average in goal line situations (and best in the AFCE in goal line situations). Given that the division featured Brown/Williams, Jones and Lynch as the running back competition, those numbers are good things.

"Maroney also converted three more first downs than the average in short-yardage situations, third-best in the AFC East."

But couldn't that just be because of more attempts? Regardless just because he may have statisically better in one or two categories in a group that is only limited to the AFC East is not really enough evidence to go around pounding your chest about. It is just too narrow of a category for it to really mean anything.

 

[BradyManny]

From Reiss's blog:

Stick that in your pipe and smoke it, Maroney bashers.

Here is the link to the article.

Which AFC East RBs grind it out best? - AFC East Blog - ESPN

Look, I've been as big a Maroney supporter as anybody here, but after his string of huge, game-changing fumbles - and the history of it dating back to the 2006 AFCCG [which fortunately, we recovered] - how can he be trusted along the goal-line? Or in any high-leverage situation?

And it's not just fumbles. 3rd & 1 on the first possession coming out of halftime in SB42, if he picks up that yard, I guarantee its an entirely different ballgame. I can't think of one clutch play this guy has made, yet time after time, big situations, he's failed.

So, I'm sorry - he is a decent running back who flashes greatness. He was not worth the investment of the 1st pick. It would be great if he learned pass protection skills and pass receiving skills that would allow him to take advantage of his open field abilities, but that hasn't happened yet, and last we saw him, he was letting Brady get destroyed by Ray Lewis.

I'm generally optimistic about the Pats, and about Maroney, but there really isn't much to be excited about in terms of his long-term stance with the team.

 

[Deus Irae]

"Maroney also converted three more first downs than the average in short-yardage situations, third-best in the AFC East."

But couldn't that just be because of more attempts? Regardless just because he may have statisically better in one or two categories in a group that is only limited to the AFC East is not really enough evidence to go around pounding your chest about. It is just too narrow of a category for it to really mean anything.

How is "average" only the AFCE? The problem here is that you didn't read the linked article, yet you're still commenting on this.

Rather than merely trot out the number of goal-line touchdown runs, Barnwell went back a full decade to research every NFL rushing attempt inside the opponent's 5-yard line to put the production in context.

He took the total number of touchdowns scored across the league and calculated the average for given situations. For example, runners scored on 52.9 percent of their attempts from the 1-yard line, and 31.1 percent from the 3-yard line.

Barnwell then looked at individual players to see how well they performed against the league average. He took it a step further for the AFC East blog and applied the same process to consider 1- and 2-yard carries for first downs.

There are holes in the analysis, as Dryheat was pointing to in his incomplete response to my earlier question (I asked for career numbers in response to a poster's comment; Dryheat only pointed to last season), but the holes aren't what you're pointing to.

 

[alphilip77]

Facts and averages be damned! I've seen him play and the best complement I can give him is he's wildly inconsistent. Next thing you know they'll be saying Trent Edwards had a better year than Brady through a comparison via some ridiculous scale. BS.

 

[Feep50]

Obviously Maroney cares a great deal, works hard and says all the right things. I've been rooting for him since we drafted him. At this point a change of scenery might be best for him and us. As hard as that is to say. I don't see him being resigned by us. Hoping if he plays one more year for us he does well.......

 

[eom]

How is "average" only the AFCE? The problem here is that you didn't read the linked article, yet you're still commenting on this.

people like to have opinions.

the funny thing is the guy asks a question that's answered right in the article.

 

[Deus Irae]

Look, I've been as big a Maroney supporter as anybody here, but after his string of huge, game-changing fumbles - and the history of it dating back to the 2006 AFCCG [which fortunately, we recovered] - how can he be trusted along the goal-line? Or in any high-leverage situation?

And it's not just fumbles. 3rd & 1 on the first possession coming out of halftime in SB42, if he picks up that yard, I guarantee its an entirely different ballgame. I can't think of one clutch play this guy has made, yet time after time, big situations, he's failed.

So, I'm sorry - he is a decent running back who flashes greatness. He was not worth the investment of the 1st pick. It would be great if he learned pass protection skills and pass receiving skills that would allow him to take advantage of his open field abilities, but that hasn't happened yet, and last we saw him, he was letting Brady get destroyed by Ray Lewis.

I'm generally optimistic about the Pats, and about Maroney, but there really isn't much to be excited about in terms of his long-term stance with the team.

Prior to a very small stretch of games this past season where he fumbled several times, ball control was one of Maroney's strengths. Anyone who's followed the game can tell you that fumbles will sometimes come in batches, as players begin to think about it too much and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy, as well as some of it just being a matter of the odds evening out.

Take a look at a guy like Tomlinson, for example, and his fumble numbers:

5
2
2
5
2
2
0
0
1

Here's a guy who's had entire seasons without a fumble, yet he's also had two seasons where he's fumbled 5 times.

Now, Maroney is no LdT but, prior to last season, he'd only fumbled once in his entire NFL career. Even with his 4 fumbles last season, he's still averaging less than 1 fumble per 100 carries.

 

[rabthepat]

LMAO................and George Bush is a genius....and Rosie O'Donnell is skinny.....and OCHO CINCO is stable....

 

[RayClay]

No coincidence to me that Maroney fumbled more once he started running hard consistently. He needed to run hard IMO, or the league was going to eat him up. Now he needs to work on ball control too. It can be done.

I remember a nifty little runner, pass catcher that was one step from being bounced out of the league due to fumblitis. Faulk's had a pretty good career since then.

 

[JackBauer]

He was not worth the investment of the 1st pick.

I think if you look at the how first round picks have historically panned out, you'd find that simply isn't the case.

 

[ALP]

Throwing stats aside, I'd take Ronnie Brown as my goal-line back any day of the week. In my opinion, he's the best goal-line back in the division.

yea? then u must also like rb's who are injury prone and end seasons in the IR consistenly...

 

[patriotscpfc]

It could be argued that this is the first year that he ran hard the entire year, and he then fumbled more.

You could also argue that on at least one of the fumbles, he'd crossed the goal-line already. If only the refs weren't such douchebags.

And he didn't get hurt...

And, he is only 25 and hasn't taken a massive pounding yet.

Some of the people on here, probably wanted Kevin Faulk cut early in his career.

This is his last year here, one way or another. I think he is our best back. Then again, it probably isn't saying much behind Sammy "injured/draw plays" Morris, Fred "old, injured" Taylor and Benjarvus "3 yards, cloud of dust" Green-Ellis.

 

[blackcat54]

Who cares what you guys think...we'll be seeing Billichicks opinion on this later this month.:bricks:

 

[signbabybrady]

I think if you look at the how first round picks have historically panned out, you'd find that simply isn't the case.

I would say he has not lived up to his potential but I also think he is far from a bust. To me a bust is a guy like Ryan Leaf or Eugene Chung.

 

[JackBauer]

I would say he has not lived up to his potential but I also think he is far from a bust. To me a bust is a guy like Ryan Leaf or Eugene Chung.

Maroney obviously hasn't developed to what many of us had hoped, but go back and look at the first round of that draft if you're still suffering from the delusion that he was a horrible, atrocious bust of a pick.