Epic 2 round mock draft with trades

[dryheat44]

Without analyzing A to Z, I love the Patriots haul.

 

[Nonentity]

Wow, an impressive bit of work there. Nice job. I have a handful of notes.

Thanks, I really appreciate it. It took most of the week to write, a couple of hours at a time.

1) I think there may be an early run on nose tackles that will supris quite a few people. I strongly believe that Denver is going to think hard about pulling the trigger on Williams or Cody. I know what the supposed "value" of these kids is, but the nose is the most important position in the 34. I also think that both of these players are underrated. This is especially true with Cody. People tend to fall in love with measurables, but the eye in the sky don't lie. Cody is as dominant a nose as there has been in a long time coming out. If Denver goes nose, I expect Miami to do the same. Parcells has a lot invested in his will and mike, and he needs a long term answer to maximize their value. I think Miami is going to shock people and take Cody.

It's far from impossible. Everything changes in the 1st round if Denver takes Williams and Bryant is still available. The big run I see is on left tackles, so many teams are in need of one. The Packers trade up is horrible value in this draft, but then you see how many sacks Aaron Rodgers took last year and there's very little choice.

Also, look at who the NTs go to. It's a giant game of chicken. The Bills trade up for Cody and BOOM, the Chargers trade up too.

3) I think that if NE adresses the Jack/Joker, they will adress the Sam. I would have put Lane in the 2nd round.

I like Lane, I just don't see the pick.
I'm not sure I can really justify taking someone like Lane in the 2nd round with NFL-ready still available. And it did seem a bit of a cop-out to trade down and specifically take Lane in the 3rd round of a 2 round mock draft! This draft seems to be heavy on players who can play Jack/Joker but weak on Sam. Maybe Kindle could play there - would appreciate your thoughts on the 3-4 Sams in this draft, I just don't have the knowledge about the necessary skill-set to truly say either way.

4) I think they can adress their need for a 4 tech either via trade or by picking up a guy off the street. It's a stop gap, but Odrick ain't gonna be around in the 2nd with the volume of 34's being built around the league.[/quote]


I get the impression that a lot of the converting teams will stick with what they have (ie the converting players) and see how things go. The 2nd year is the time to consolidate, just look at the Packers this year with Kampman leaving. This is such a deep draft too. The trade up to get Odrick was really a "can't believe he's still here" trade, the fall itself was completely unintended.

 

[bucky]

Well, nice job. Thorough and thoughtful. Plenty of interesting things come to mind:

I think you nailed the draft's main storyline - Clausen sliding out of the top 10. I also don't think Buffalo will take him and there is no landing spot for him for quite a while. So the question is where will the trade up spot be and for who? Traditionally it's been in the early 20s (Rogers, Boller, Quinn). But in this case it could be higher because this draft is so deep.

I think you and everybody else has Bryant going way too high. This guy is just not worth trusting with 10s of millions of guaranteed dollars. McDaniel went to the BB/Pioli school of drafting. Parcells isn't going to take him - he didn't want to take Terry Glen here although he had nobody at WR. So I think Bryant becomes the second story of the draft - the sliding talent who everyone's afraid of. And he'll land somewhere between 18 and 30.

The other underlying story of this draft that you have brought out is the depth of players who could go in the bottom of the 1st. Not all of them can go that high, so somebody will drop. Will it be Kindle? Odrick? Mays? Mathews? Gresham? Iutapi? McCourty? Could be any of them and more.

With regard to the Patriots' picks, I like Hughes. I think if we want him, we have to take him there. He won't be around 6-8 picks later. The only question I have is his ability to hold the edge. And if the Pats have that same question mark, they'd be smart to trade down and pick up more picks. There are some pretty good players to be had in the 3rd-4th round area.

I like Best as much as you do, which is why I doubt the Pats would move back if he's still on the board at 53. Hell, I doubt he'll be on the board even at 44. And he's not a luxury pick at all. Maroney, Faulk, and Taylor are all in their last year here. Best would get 10 touches a game instantly and would provide a number of big plays.

One trade-down scenario I've looked at is the Pats trading 53 to Cleveland for 71 and 92. Cleveland could be looking QB at 38 and have 3 3rd round picks. So if someone they like is sitting at 53, they could easily pull the trigger. With Mangini no longer making decisions there, it could be easier to deal with them. 71 and 92 are perfect spots for the Pats to grab a TE and I expect a number of quality players to be available - like Decker, Worilds, Spikes, Edds, or Arenas.

Anyway, that's what I got for now.

 

[TealSox]

First of all, great work. Looks like you took a great deal of time and effort to put this together and it is shows in comments. Probably the best explained mock draft I've seen this year.

I'm sure everyone has heard the opinions of Jimmy Clausen dropping in the draft a la Brady Quinn and I agree with them for the most part. The only thought that keeps popping into my head is that Snyder is going to want to make a splash, considering the draft is on prime time on the east coast and you don't make a splash by taking an offensive tackle. You steal headlines by taking Jimmy Clausen via a trade into the second spot with the Detroit Lions (as Shefter believes is the possibility).

Shefter's argument is that the would see the money better invested in a QB than an OT. I would go a step further and suggest that an OT could be acquired later in the draft or they could trade for Omar Gaither.

Gaither actually works into my Raiders' scenario.... who could risk taking an OT with their first round pick or take the best DE available (or Haden if available, thus making the "Aso to Philly for McNabb" more reasonable).

Yet, nevermind all that..

great job on the mock!

 

[Kontradiction]

Without analyzing A to Z, I love the Patriots haul.

So do I. If Jahvid Best really does fall that low, I would love for the Pats to pick him up (should the draft fall like that). IMO, he would be a good replacement for Kevin Faulk. Lightning quick in the open field. Pretty solid draft all in all.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Very nice mock. I would be thrilled if the Giants took the Spoon over McClain. If that happens, BB needs to jump up and grab McClain.

 

[Nonentity]

I'm sure everyone has heard the opinions of Jimmy Clausen dropping in the draft a la Brady Quinn and I agree with them for the most part. The only thought that keeps popping into my head is that Snyder is going to want to make a splash, considering the draft is on prime time on the east coast and you don't make a splash by taking an offensive tackle. You steal headlines by taking Jimmy Clausen via a trade into the second spot with the Detroit Lions (as Shefter believes is the possibility).

Shefter's argument is that the would see the money better invested in a QB than an OT. I would go a step further and suggest that an OT could be acquired later in the draft or they could trade for Omar Gaither.

Gaither actually works into my Raiders' scenario.... who could risk taking an OT with their first round pick or take the best DE available (or Haden if available, thus making the "Aso to Philly for McNabb" more reasonable).

This is an interesting consideration actually, and one I didn't think of. What effect will prime time have? It's the sort of thing that shouldn't matter, but might. Jerry Jones and Dan Snyder are the two main possible culprits, since they act as both owner and de facto GM. Where ownership isn't involved on the GM side I think there's less chance of prime time being a factor.

The Redskins' trade back into the 1st round for Clausen probably qualifies. Tebow being taken in the 1st would obviously have huge prime-time potential as well. I'm not sure the Cowboys have the right need, really, unless they perhaps trade up for Dez Bryant.

Very nice mock. I would be thrilled if the Giants took the Spoon over McClain. If that happens, BB needs to jump up and grab McClain.

We certainly could do, but I think I like Jerry Hughes more. Not that I don't like McClain though. As with our need at DE, I think we can plug players into the ILB spot more easily than we can at OLB.

As I said earlier:

In some drafts you can group 5 players at the same position together as having equal value and then trade down to
the spot where you can get at least one. I don't think that's the case with the OLB group this year. Each of them have different attributes and they suit different schemes. I think Hughes suits ours well because he can set the edge (just about), he can read-react and he has incredible fluidity. Along with the pass-rushing skills. I think you have to take the one you want early and let everyone else fight after you for the remaining players. For example, imagine that only Sapp and Worilds are left for us in the 2nd round. We'd be compromising at a position of extreme need, which just doesn't strike me as wise.

I just love what Hughes would give us. He brings it all, every single play. He's a Patriots player.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Very nice job on these picks! All seems credible. Lot of work; thanks for posting this.

I would prefer that Bill Belichick never ever again draft a RB or WR in the first two rounds but he has upgraded his drafting and maybe just maybe he will do a better job this year.

Instead of WR and RB in the first two rounds I would prefer any combo of TE OLB or CB.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

I think you and everybody else has Bryant going way too high. ...


One trade-down scenario I've looked at is the Pats trading 53 to Cleveland for 71 and 92. Cleveland could be looking QB at 38 and have 3 3rd round picks. .

You are right about Bryant and if he slides to 22 he can keep on sliding; BB does not want a WR with a learning disability.

Nice catch on the Cleveland issue. The Patriots must be dying to pick up a third; they hate having holes like that. As long as Mangini is kept at bay the Browns might want to do busniess with the Patriots.

As far as the Redskins doing the usual stupid big-splash thing again this year; forget it. It would appear that Shanahan has put the clamps on his idiot owner; the Skins didn't do anything stupid in FA which is a sure sign that Synder is not the GM anymore.

We have to depend on Jerry Jones and Al Davis for the bonehead moves; they are the last two meddling owners. It is a shame really; wish there were more Al Davis'es out there.

 

[Blue&Silver Koolaid]

If someone wants to reach, and I do mean REACH for Tebow at #22 I would make that trade in a nanosecond. I'm talking stoopid like a 1st next year and second or third this year........

Al Davis, are you reading this?