Top 16 and Next 16 and a 2nd Round Board

[mgteich]

This is very basic stuff for most here, but if the top 16 stay there, we still will have a choice of a decent set of players at 17, at least one of which would lbe thre at 22.

While a player of two in the top 16 could slip a bit, any of them would require a trade up. The next 16 should be within reach, trading up, staying or trading down.

TOP 16
==========
QB Bradford, Clausen
OT Okung, Bulaga, Williams
RB Spiller
DL Suh, McCoy, Morgan, Williams, Pierre-Paul
LB McClain, Graham
DB Hayden, Berry, Thomas
==========================================================
==========================================================
Next 16
========
WR Bryant, Tate, Thomas
TE Greshem
RB Matthews
OT Campbell, Davis
C Pouncey
OG Iupati
DE Odrick, Griffen
LB Kindle, Dunlop, Witherspoon
DB Wilson, Mays
================

BOTTOM LINE
=========
If you have six that you would want at 22, then you are likely to have a chance at at least one.

MY BOARD FOR 22: Odrick, Bryant, Thomas, Wilson, Kindle, Greshem and perhaps Tate.

If these were all gone, I would trade into the second, picking up a mid third. If several were there at 22, I might trade down a few spots in the first and pick up a 3rd or 4th.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Cool way of looking at it. I would do this in my head as players I know will be "unobtainable" at #22, nice to see it in readble form.

For me, it's Dez Bryant or Odrick. If there both gone, trade down a few spots and grab a #3.

It seems this draft will have a bunch of solid #2s in the NFL and then there's Bryant, who could be the #1 probowl/star.

Odrick-Wilfork-Warren just sounds great and the pain of Seymour not here is gone.

 

[MaineMan]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Out of your 2nd 16, to me Kyle Wilson would be the only player worth the price of staying in the 1st round versus trading out for another 2nd and a 3rd.

Not saying we need Wilson, but he and Butler and Bodden would make for a heckuva nifty DB corps.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

This is very basic stuff for most here, but if the top 16 stay there, we still will have a choice of a decent set of players at 17, at least one of which would lbe thre at 22.

While a player of two in the top 16 could slip a bit, any of them would require a trade up. The next 16 should be within reach, trading up, staying or trading down.

TOP 16
==========
QB Bradford, Clausen
OT Okung, Bulaga, Williams
RB Spiller
DL Suh, McCoy, Morgan, Williams, Pierre-Paul
LB McClain, Graham
DB Hayden, Berry, Thomas
==========================================================
==========================================================
Next 16
========
WR Bryant, Tate, Thomas
TE Greshem
RB Matthews
OT Campbell, Davis
C Pouncey
OG Iupati
DE Odrick, Griffen
LB Kindle, Dunlop, Witherspoon
DB Wilson, Mays
================

BOTTOM LINE
=========
If you have six that you would want at 22, then you are likely to have a chance at at least one.

MY BOARD FOR 22: Odrick, Bryant, Thomas, Wilson, Kindle, Greshem and perhaps Tate.

If these were all gone, I would trade into the second, picking up a mid third. If several were there at 22, I might trade down a few spots in the first and pick up a 3rd or 4th.

So what if someone from your first 16 falls into the second sixteen and is available at #22, say Graham. Does that mean BB stays put and takes him?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

BOTTOM LINE
=========
If you have six that you would want at 22, then you are likely to have a chance at at least one.

MY BOARD FOR 22: Odrick, Bryant, Thomas, Wilson, Kindle, Greshem and perhaps Tate.

If these were all gone, I would trade into the second, picking up a mid third. If several were there at 22, I might trade down a few spots in the first and pick up a 3rd or 4th.

Why is everybody trying to get BB a third round pick. Except for comp picks, he is terrible at projecting guys in this range of the draft.

 

[CoachK]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Assuming Iupati and Kindle are certain goners in the top 20, for me that leaves Odrick, Wilson or trade out for a 2nd & 3rd.

A third rounder could add a Carrington, Misi or Hardesty (not trivial).

 

[Feep50]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

I'm anticipating a trade probably involving #22 but I really would like to stand "Pat" and select at #22, 44, 47 and 53. I just don't think it will happen. There will be many teams coveting that #22 pick and we all know if that certain player BB wants there is gone he will make a trade in a nanosecond.......

All and all I like our positioning in the first two rounds.......

Using your list I would think Odrick the obvious #22 pick, White would be a non-brainer if not for the off-field worries, seems to high to take Tate or Iaputi

 

[dryheat44]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Why is everybody trying to get BB a third round pick. Except for comp picks, he is terrible at projecting guys in this range of the draft.

I think that in this draft the 3rd round picks are less projections than in years past. There's a lot of talented players to be have, and that hole between #53 and #100-something is enormous.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

So what if someone from your first 16 falls into the second sixteen and is available at #22, say Graham. Does that mean BB stays put and takes him?

If one of the 16 slips, I would expect Belichick to pick that player if he was high on the patriots board. And, of course, there would be giher expected value of a trade than before.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

If one of the 16 slips, I would expect Belichick to pick that player if he was high on the patriots board. And, of course, there would be giher expected value of a trade than before.

So if Claussen fell to us at #22 and he is probably high on the Pats board, but not necessarily playing a need position, you would expect BB to take that player, if he can't work out a trade?

 

[Nonentity]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Given that most boards take into account need as well as value, he's probably not rated that highly on our board

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

If Clausen falls to 22, we'll have one of those K.Boller trades. We'll trade 22 for a teams second this year and 1st next year.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

1) I beleive that there is heavy negative weighting when there is no need for a position.

2) However, if Clausen were there, I'd expect us to draft him and trade him later in the evening, if no trade were immediately forthcoming.

So if Claussen fell to us at #22 and he is probably high on the Pats board, but not necessarily playing a need position, you would expect BB to take that player, if he can't work out a trade?

 

[dryheat44]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

1) I beleive that there is heavy negative weighting when there is no need for a position.

2) However, if Clausen were there, I'd expect us to draft him and trade him later in the evening, if no trade were immediately forthcoming.

Why wouldn't BB draft a player who could help us instead of drafting a player who can't help us and try to get fair value for a trade later? That's almost non-sensical. If Clausen's on the board, and the war room phone isn't ringing, or the offers aren't that appealing, I would hope that BB would draft Odrick or Hughes or Spiller, or whomever is the highest on the board. Additionally, we're trading from weakness, as other teams know BB must trade Clausen.

In other words, I agree 100% with statement #1. There is one draft board, not one for "need" and another for "value". There is a value board which takes need into consideration.

Therefore, if Clausen were available, I'd expect Belichick to pass on him (assuming a proper offer isn't on the table), since Clausen is not going to be the top player on his board, and probably not in the top 10. When management is talking about giving the current QB an extension that makes him among the highest-paid players in history, backup quarterback isn't going to be high on the draft board.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

We agree. I cannot imagine Clausen being higher on belichick's board that Odrick, Spiller or Hughes.

Why wouldn't BB draft a player who could help us instead of drafting a player who can't help us and try to get fair value for a trade later? That's almost non-sensical. If Clausen's on the board, and the war room phone isn't ringing, or the offers aren't that appealing, I would hope that BB would draft Odrick or Hughes or Spiller, or whomever is the highest on the board. Additionally, we're trading from weakness, as other teams know BB must trade Clausen.

In other words, I agree 100% with statement #1. There is one draft board, not one for "need" and another for "value". There is a value board which takes need into consideration.

Therefore, if Clausen were available, I'd expect Belichick to pass on him (assuming a proper offer isn't on the table), since Clausen is not going to be the top player on his board, and probably not in the top 10. When management is talking about giving the current QB an extension that makes him among the highest-paid players in history, backup quarterback isn't going to be high on the draft board.

 

[mgteich]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

I thought I'd add a 2nd round board in the same format.

SECOND ROUND BOARD (32 plus what's left from the 32 1st round list below)
================
QB Tebow, McCoy
WR Tate, Benn, Williams, LaFell, Gilyard
RB Best, Gerhard
OG Asomah, Johnson
OT Brown, Safford, Ducasse
TE Grankowski, Hernandez, McCoy
DT Cody, Price
DE Carrington, Wooten, Alualu
LB Hughes, Misi, Sapp, Norwood, Washington
CB Robinson, Jackson, Ghee, Cook
S Allen
QUOTE=mgteich;1772868.TOP 16
Top 16
==========
QB Bradford, Clausen
OT Okung, Bulaga, Williams
RB Spiller
DL Suh, McCoy, Morgan, Williams, Pierre-Paul
LB McClain, Graham
DB Hayden, Berry, Thomas
==========================================================
Next 16
========
WR Bryant, Tate, Thomas
TE Greshem
RB Matthews
OT Campbell, Davis
C Pouncey
OG Iupati
DE Odrick, Griffen
LB Kindle, Dunlop, Witherspoon
DB Wilson, Mays
================

BOTTOM LINE
=========
MY BOARD FOR 22: Odrick, Bryant, Thomas, Wilson, Kindle, Greshem.

If these were all gone, I would trade into the second, picking up a mid third. If several were there at 22, I might trade down a few spots in the first and pick up a 3rd or 4th.[/QUOTE]

 

[Seneschal2]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

Several scenarios exist for #22 -- here's some:

#1 Scenario: Hope for one from those top 16 to slide to #22
#2 Scenario: Remain and select their value pick (fill in the names)
#3 Scenario: Trade down (remaining in round one)
#4 Scenario: Trade out (into round two)
#5 Scenario: Trade up from #22

Personally, I'd like to hold onto the three second-rounders and not trade up. Although if McClain were a slight move up -- I might bite confused.

Acquiring the missing third-rounder in a tradedown is appealing, because of this draft's depth in that area. Of course any tradedown would also net the Pats a 2011 early pick -- probably a 2nd.

 

[bakes781]

Re: Top 16 and Next 16

The highest we can realistically expect to trade up is #10 with Jacksonville. In the past the Jags have taken less than they probably should in a trade down scenario in the 1st. Since we own their 2nd perhaps we could offer it back along with #22.
Maybe they miss out on JPP and decide the value isn't there with a Derrick Morgan.

I'm not interested in stockpiling for next year. If anything I'd be willing to part with our #1 or #2 in 2011 for a high 2nd or 3rd this year.