Projecting the Pats' talent next season

[Fencer]

Before the injuries start, I make the Pats' talent situation something like this:

QB -- GOAT or close to it, in or close to his prime
RB -- near the top of the league in shotgun, solid but below average otherwise. Nets out to average+
Receivers -- Aging near-GOAT, a bunch of JAGs, a Pro Bowler who should be partway back from injury by the postseason
Blockers -- Pro Bowler in his prime, a few aging borderline Pro Bowlers, and a great-looking second-year player to replace the weak link

K -- Pro Bowler
P -- below average
LS -- meh

DL (running downs) -- Pro Bowler, another above-average guy, a weak link, and a decent backup or two
DL (passing downs) -- below average (even if you say that's TBC's main job)
LB -- one above-average guy (Mayo) and a bunch of weak links
DBs -- above average, although that assumes guys grow a lot year over year

That doesn't live up to the Pats, Colts, or Chargers of a few years ago, but I'm not sure who projects a lot better this season.

 

[patriotscpfc]

I'd argue that you underrate Edelman and no mention of Tate. Neither are JAGs.

We have no Punter yet.

We don't know what we have in McKenzie. Guyton is solid.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I'd argue that you underrate Edelman and no mention of Tate. Neither are JAGs.

We have no Punter yet.

We don't know what we have in McKenzie. Guyton is solid.

tate is nothing yet

 

[Jangles]

the WR corps is just terrible

As of now Edelman and Moss are the only 2 WRs we have that need defending. If we go into the season with that same line up. I'll be surprised if we win half of our games. Especially considering our lack of a real RB

 

[RobertWeathers]

the WR corps is just terrible

As of now Edelman and Moss are the only 2 WRs we have that need defending. If we go into the season with that same line up. I'll be surprised if we win half of our games. Especially considering our lack of a real RB

I don't understand how a WR grouping with Randy Moss is terrible? Need to also factor in more production out of Edelman.

I would agree that the remaining players are either unknowns or JAGs at the WR position.

 

[RayClay]

Ty Warren is not a JAG. There's a hole on the other side of the DL.

 

[Jangles]

I don't understand how a WR grouping with Randy Moss is terrible? Need to also factor in more production out of Edelman.

I would agree that the remaining players are either unknowns or JAGs at the WR position.

I'm evaluating them as a group

the Rams with Tom Brady or Peyton Manning are still a terrible team, they just have one outstanding player

Randy Moss is the only real threat and he is getting old. I love Randy, I hope he retires a Pat but '07 Randy Moss probably isn't coming back. Expecting him to flat out run away from double coverage might be a little much anymore.

Edelman is a good find but he isn't Wes Welker. I like having him on the field but the positives end with Edelman and Moss. Nobody else on the team that lines up as a WR can be trusted to catch a football. Brady is going to deal with a ton of pressure this season because opposing defenses know there are only 2 threats on the field

 

[Metaphors]

Another way of looking at it:

QB - Hoyer (24)
RB - Maroney (25), BJGE (25)
WR - Edelman (24), Tate (22)
OL - Vollmer (26), Wendell (24), Orhnberger (24)
K - Gostkowski (26)
DL - Pryor (24), Brace (23)
LB - Mayo (24), Guyton (24), Ninkovich (26), McKenzie (24), Crable (25)
CB - Butler (24), Wheatley (25), Wilhite (26)
S - Meriweather (26), McGowan (26), Sanders (26), Chung (23)

That is 23 players (with a couple of other development types I didn't mention) under the age of 27 on opening day 2010. 27 is about the age when a player starts to maximize the blend of physical ability and experience. Any of the players above could take a significant leap forward in development in the next year or two. Obviously all of them won't...in fact a handful likely won't make the 2010 roster. But it would be incredible if a handful of them DIDN'T make a huge leap in development in 2010.

Many on this board have closed the book on the development of a bunch of players on the list above (Maroney, Tate, Brace, Guyton, Crable, Wheatley, Meriweather). They are as good as they are going to get and so you either need to accept that or find a better replacement.

I look at it differently. The Pats success depends on players in this age/experience group stepping up and making key contributions. If this group stagnates or flames out, all the draft picks in 2010 aren't going to be able to make up for that.

So the Pats have stud veterans at key positions (Brady, Mankins, Moss, Welker, Wilfork, Warren, Bodden) along with a bunch of savvy, experienced guys that know how to win. The Pats will also add a bunch of talented youngsters in a month. But it will be the group I listed at the top that holds the key to adding another championship.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think it's an exercise in futility to project the pats talent next season in March... The draft is still 4 weeks away and there will be moves made in conjunction with it or shortly thereafter and likely right up to TC that will likely sufficiently alter any perception formed in March...

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'm evaluating them as a group

the Rams with Tom Brady or Peyton Manning are still a terrible team, they just have one outstanding player

Randy Moss is the only real threat and he is getting old. I love Randy, I hope he retires a Pat but '07 Randy Moss probably isn't coming back. Expecting him to flat out run away from double coverage might be a little much anymore.

Edelman is a good find but he isn't Wes Welker. I like having him on the field but the positives end with Edelman and Moss. Nobody else on the team that lines up as a WR can be trusted to catch a football. Brady is going to deal with a ton of pressure this season because opposing defenses know there are only 2 threats on the field

Your assessment of each player is not wrong. Your characterization of the labeling the entire group terrible is off-base IMO.

If you want to call the group collectively mediocre or average, then I would agree.

 

[Metaphors]

the WR corps is just terrible

As of now Edelman and Moss are the only 2 WRs we have that need defending. If we go into the season with that same line up. I'll be surprised if we win half of our games. Especially considering our lack of a real RB

Couldn't you have written something similar about the Colts this time last year?

 

[Brady2Welker]

Your assessment of each player is not wrong. Your characterization of the labeling the entire group terrible is off-base IMO.

If you want to call the group collectively mediocre or average, then I would agree.

A lot of people forget that Randy Moss is probably the single most talented WR to ever play. Even aging, if he brings his A game he still has absolutely incredible hands and can go vertical better than most DBs.

The question is; is Tate gonna evolve into someone that makes defenses respect him, maybe as a second/third WR. The other question is how motivated will Randy be.

 

[dhamz]

Couldn't you have written something similar about the Colts this time last year?

I wouldn't. They were returning plenty of production at WR/TE. They let Harrison go but were returning Wayne (82 catches), Clark (77 catches), and Gonzalez (57 catches).

With Welker uncertain, Edelman at 37 catches is the second leading returning pass catcher after Moss. The 3rd best returning WR/TE is Aiken who caught 20 balls.

The Colts were looking for 4th and 5th options in their passing game at this time last year and found them. The Pats need to find more than 4th/5th options. Fortunately, there is still a lot of time between now and the season.

 

[Rob0729]

Another way of looking at it:

QB - Hoyer (24)
RB - Maroney (25), BJGE (25)
WR - Edelman (24), Tate (22)
OL - Vollmer (26), Wendell (24), Orhnberger (24)
K - Gostkowski (26)
DL - Pryor (24), Brace (23)
LB - Mayo (24), Guyton (24), Ninkovich (26), McKenzie (24), Crable (25)
CB - Butler (24), Wheatley (25), Wilhite (26)
S - Meriweather (26), McGowan (26), Sanders (26), Chung (23)

That is 23 players (with a couple of other development types I didn't mention) under the age of 27 on opening day 2010. 27 is about the age when a player starts to maximize the blend of physical ability and experience. Any of the players above could take a significant leap forward in development in the next year or two. Obviously all of them won't...in fact a handful likely won't make the 2010 roster. But it would be incredible if a handful of them DIDN'T make a huge leap in development in 2010.

Many on this board have closed the book on the development of a bunch of players on the list above (Maroney, Tate, Brace, Guyton, Crable, Wheatley, Meriweather). They are as good as they are going to get and so you either need to accept that or find a better replacement.

I look at it differently. The Pats success depends on players in this age/experience group stepping up and making key contributions. If this group stagnates or flames out, all the draft picks in 2010 aren't going to be able to make up for that.

So the Pats have stud veterans at key positions (Brady, Mankins, Moss, Welker, Wilfork, Warren, Bodden) along with a bunch of savvy, experienced guys that know how to win. The Pats will also add a bunch of talented youngsters in a month. But it will be the group I listed at the top that holds the key to adding another championship.

I think the fact there are so many young players make this roster a bit of an unknown. There is a potential for several players to develop into solid starters or possibly elite players as soon at this year. Mayo rebounding from injury could turn into the player we were expecting after his rookie season. Vollmer could become an elite LT or RT. Butler, Chung, and a few others could slide into starting roles and be solid after a year of experience. Edelman now that he is getting used to the receiving role could be 80-90% of Welker.

Granted on the flip side, none of these players could develop and this team could be in some trouble.

 

[RobertWeathers]

A lot of people forget that Randy Moss is probably the single most talented WR to ever play. Even aging, if he brings his A game he still has absolutely incredible hands and can go vertical better than most DBs.

The question is; is Tate gonna evolve into someone that makes defenses respect him, maybe as a second/third WR. The other question is how motivated will Randy be.

Agreed. I'm operating under the assumption that going into a contract year, Randy will be motivated. 80 catches for 1200 yds and 10 TDs is IMO very realistic.

I may be stretching things here, but with WW out, Edelman will get a lot of looks and make some plays. Seeing what he did last year in almost 400 snaps, he caught 43 balls. In theory, with Wes on the shelf for an extended period of time, Edelman could catch 70+ balls in this offense.

Who knows about the rest. Aiken is the 5th WR. Patten may not make the team. Tate seems to have some nice talent but is an unknown.

 

[spacecrime]

I'll be surprised if we win half of our games.

I'd be more than surprised. I would be flabbergasted if we only won half our games.

 

[Jangles]

Your assessment of each player is not wrong. Your characterization of the labeling the entire group terrible is off-base IMO.

If you want to call the group collectively mediocre or average, then I would agree.

Perhaps

The situation reminds me of 2007 when the announcers were discussing the strengths of the divisions by W/L record

Even with the Pats at 16-0 I think the AFC East that year had the worst W/L record. That's why I called the WR corp terrible. Moss is great, Edelman is good, the others are so bad that they lower the groups average tremendously

 

[Rob0729]

I'd be more than surprised. I would be flabbergasted if we only won half our games.

Yeah, the Pats haven't won less than 10 games since 2002 and less than 9 games since 2000. It is hard to believe they will win less than 8 games until they actually go out and win less than 8 games.

 

[Jangles]

I'd be more than surprised. I would be flabbergasted if we only won half our games.

We have a brutal schedule and only a mediocre team

 

[Sicilian]

Perhaps

The situation reminds me of 2007 when the announcers were discussing the strengths of the divisions by W/L record

Even with the Pats at 16-0 I think the AFC East that year had the worst W/L record. That's why I called the WR corp terrible. Moss is great, Edelman is good, the others are so bad that they lower the groups average tremendously

The way I see it, the current group is "adequate". Not a top unit in the league, but enough that with Tom Brady and a healthy o-line, we're still a potential top 5 offense in this league.

The problem is we have ZERO wiggle room. Moss gets nagging injuries again, or Edelman gets hurt, we're screwed. There's no depth.