Patriots picks - mock (no trades)

[Nonentity]

Hi everyone,

I wanted to get down some thoughts on the Patriots picks now, I'll do a 2 round mock draft with trades afterwards. At least this will give everyone some indications of my thinking. It's nice to be free of free agency now, which really got annoying when thinking about mocks. Suffice it to say that the Denver Broncos won't be drafting Terrence Cody at 11 anymore...


Oh, and I'm only going down as far as the 4th round here. Anything else is a crapshoot where people simply post their late-round binkies (e.g. Jameson Konz, Kent State, workout warrior extraordinairre)

Used the Prospect Ratings at CBSSports for rough player placements - can't post links yet. I'll edit this post once I can.

22 - Maurice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
44 - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech or Damian Williams, WR, USC
47 - Jason Worilds, OLB, Virginia Tech
53 - Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray State
119 - Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa



Pouncey is one of the best center prospects in the last 5-10 years who Indy are desperately hoping falls to them. Reasons for taking him:

• We are not strong at the center position - it's a clear weakness on the offensive line.
• Steve Neal is made of glass, and Pouncey can play guard.
• We play in a division where our two biggest rivals employ the 3-4, wherefore we need to be able to deal with big nose tackles without always shading guard help over.
• Koppen can keep going this year without too many problems, while Pouncey learns the line calls, gets to know Brady and does a spell filling in at guard.

Thomas/Williams is an intelligent wideout who should have no problem picking up our complex route scheme. He is a 6'3 deep threat who I want to be ready to replace Randy Moss in his second year on the team. Moss himself says that he doesn't expect to be here in 2011 (although I would try to retain him). We would make an elementary mistake if we draft a WR to play the No. 2 spot. We need to draft a No. 1 receiver who can learn under Moss for a year. If Moss doesn't leave, great - but we cannot expect a rookie to be able to start and produce in the first game of the 2011 season.


Jason Worilds is a rising prospect with the consistent ability to rush the passer. He has great natural ability with room to improve on his range of pass-rushing moves. He has a great motor and is a high-effort player. When playing the run he's tended to try to use his strength rather than good technique, but this is inconsistency rather than inability to play with technique. He can play SOLB in the 3-4 with Tully Banta-Cain playing on the weak side.

Universal Draft did a fantastic feature on him too.


Austen Lane has been talked about endlessly by others who know him far better than I do (mayoclinic!). Prototypical height/size with production at Murray State, a small school. Every other player I've picked is a solid player, it's time to take a chance. Once you evaluate a player as being a fit, draft them and don't look back. If you want him, it's the second round.

Tony Moeaki is a tight end known for his blocking ability, but his combine and position drills showed that he has good hands and can run his routes well. Getting him in the 4th would be a steal, but this is a deep TE class so hopefully he falls. If we need to trade up higher in the round or into the end of the 3rd, just do it. We have enough comp picks to grab the entire scouting staff's binkies.

========

Obviously I haven't taken a 3-4 DE, which is a need. I like Mike Wright as a starter but we clearly need depth and a plan for if Wright doesn't succeed at the position. If the receivers we like aren't there, take Alex Carrington in the 2nd round.

Jared Odrick is Ty Warren Mk II. High floor, low ceiling. Midgets would find it hard to fit between the two. He'd spend his entire life double-teamed and honestly I'm just not interested. Too many good blue-chip prospects in the 1st round to waste my time here.

Throwing out some alternative picks:

If Jahvid Best is there at 44, take him instead.
If Greg Hardy falls to the 4th round, maybe take him instead, unless we can't be bothered with the hassle. The ability is there, but he may not be our sort of player.
If Rolando McClain falls past the Giants, trade up and take him, skipping the OL pick.

This year is just terrible for ILBs. Bite the bullet, don't overdraft one and just hope Tyrone McKenzie (who I really really like) produces.

Finally, Jared Veldheer and Vladimir Ducasse are interesting players, but they just don't fit our needs. We need to worry more about the interior of the line than the tackle spots. I'm happy to stick with Light/Vollmer/Kazcur/LeVoir for another year.

 

[Since1971]

Hi everyone,

I wanted to get down some thoughts on the Patriots picks now, I'll do a 2 round mock draft with trades afterwards. At least this will give everyone some indications of my thinking. It's nice to be free of free agency now, which really got annoying when thinking about mocks. Suffice it to say that the Denver Broncos won't be drafting Terrence Cody at 11 anymore...


Oh, and I'm only going down as far as the 4th round here. Anything else is a crapshoot where people simply post their late-round binkies (e.g. Jameson Konz, Kent State, workout warrior extraordinairre)

Used the Prospect Ratings at CBSSports for rough player placements - can't post links yet. I'll edit this post once I can.

22 - Maurice Pouncey, C/G, Florida
44 - Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech or Damian Williams, WR, USC
47 - Jason Worilds, OLB, Virginia Tech
53 - Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray State
119 - Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa



Pouncey is one of the best center prospects in the last 5-10 years who Indy are desperately hoping falls to them. Reasons for taking him:

• We are not strong at the center position - it's a clear weakness on the offensive line.
• Steve Neal is made of glass, and Pouncey can play guard.
• We play in a division where our two biggest rivals employ the 3-4, wherefore we need to be able to deal with big nose tackles without always shading guard help over.
• Koppen can keep going this year without too many problems, while Pouncey learns the line calls, gets to know Brady and does a spell filling in at guard.

Thomas/Williams is an intelligent wideout who should have no problem picking up our complex route scheme. He is a 6'3 deep threat who I want to be ready to replace Randy Moss in his second year on the team. Moss himself says that he doesn't expect to be here in 2011 (although I would try to retain him). We would make an elementary mistake if we draft a WR to play the No. 2 spot. We need to draft a No. 1 receiver who can learn under Moss for a year. If Moss doesn't leave, great - but we cannot expect a rookie to be able to start and produce in the first game of the 2011 season.


Jason Worilds is a rising prospect with the consistent ability to rush the passer. He has great natural ability with room to improve on his range of pass-rushing moves. He has a great motor and is a high-effort player. When playing the run he's tended to try to use his strength rather than good technique, but this is inconsistency rather than inability to play with technique. He can play SOLB in the 3-4 with Tully Banta-Cain playing on the weak side.

Universal Draft did a fantastic feature on him too.


Austen Lane has been talked about endlessly by others who know him far better than I do (mayoclinic!). Prototypical height/size with production at Murray State, a small school. Every other player I've picked is a solid player, it's time to take a chance. Once you evaluate a player as being a fit, draft them and don't look back. If you want him, it's the second round.

Tony Moeaki is a tight end known for his blocking ability, but his combine and position drills showed that he has good hands and can run his routes well. Getting him in the 4th would be a steal, but this is a deep TE class so hopefully he falls. If we need to trade up higher in the round or into the end of the 3rd, just do it. We have enough comp picks to grab the entire scouting staff's binkies.

========

Obviously I haven't taken a 3-4 DE, which is a need. I like Mike Wright as a starter but we clearly need depth and a plan for if Wright doesn't succeed at the position. If the receivers we like aren't there, take Alex Carrington in the 2nd round.

Jared Odrick is Ty Warren Mk II. High floor, low ceiling. Midgets would find it hard to fit between the two. He'd spend his entire life double-teamed and honestly I'm just not interested. Too many good blue-chip prospects in the 1st round to waste my time here.

Throwing out some alternative picks:

If Jahvid Best is there at 44, take him instead.
If Greg Hardy falls to the 4th round, maybe take him instead, unless we can't be bothered with the hassle. The ability is there, but he may not be our sort of player.
If Rolando McClain falls past the Giants, trade up and take him, skipping the OL pick.

This year is just terrible for ILBs. Bite the bullet, don't overdraft one and just hope Tyrone McKenzie (who I really really like) produces.

Finally, Jared Veldheer and Vladimir Ducasse are interesting players, but they just don't fit our needs. We need to worry more about the interior of the line than the tackle spots. I'm happy to stick with Light/Vollmer/Kazcur/LeVoir for another year.

Worilds is a stud pass rusher, if his shoulder is healthy he might be the best future NFL pass rusher in this draft(Him or Hughs) He's a bonfide football player and his speed/athletism is off the charts. I realize his height or lack of doesn't match Belichicks requirement. (6' 2'')

 

[VJCPatriot]

1. I think you're reaching for Austen Lane. Trade back out of 53 and pick up extra picks. Lane can be had with a 3rd or 4th round pick.
2. I don't mind Pouncey. But the need for him is less with the resigning of Neal. There might be better value in the first with a defensive player like Odrick or a tradeback.
3. Worlids has a strong hand punch but when he doesn't succeed with it, he has trouble generating push. If you're going for an undersized passrusher I'd prefer Hughes who has a relentless leg drive. When you don't stop moving your legs, positive things generally happen in football. It's also a telling sign of a nonstop motor.
4. Thomas and D. Williams are not interchangeable. They are different types of players. D. Thomas reminds me of Mike Williams from USC. Yeah he could be that bad. If he ever hit his ceiling though he could be a Buress type player. Still seems a bit risky coming off that broken foot.

I'd rather go for a Branch type. D. Williams might be that type of player. He's a strong route runner and much less of a risk than D. Thomas imo.
2010 NFL Draft Player Profile: Damian Williams | NFL Soup

 

[Nonentity]

Cheers for the input guys. Being from the UK, I don't get to watch college football - and all the online articles in the world can't make up from watching numerous college games and watching out for draftable players. You can get 90% of the way there but there's always some stuff you'll miss.

VJCPatriot - I assume you mean Plaxico Burress when you're comparing Demaryius Thomas to him? I agree he comes across as more of a boom/bust, although I'm not as concerned about the foot. The pro day will give us the answer to that.

On the subject of Damian Williams, there's some concern about his ability to beat press coverage and achieve regular separation. Do these seem like fair points? On the plus side, Brady always likes good route runners - just look how Joey Galloway got chased out of town.

Neal signing a 2 year deal does suggest that the time isn't quite right for Pouncey to replace him, but we could definitely do with upgrading Koppen. But it's a value pick rather than a strictly needs-based pick, so I'm happy to differ.

And thanks for the feedback on Worilds - he seems like a red-chip version of Brandon Graham - what's Graham's motor/leg drive like, in comparison?


Otherwise, I'll start to work on a full 2 round mock draft tonight, with trades. Was going to do some of it last night but then the McNabb to Rams rumour started up. No point doing a mock draft if you can't get the #1 pick right.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Finally, Jared Veldheer and Vladimir Ducasse are interesting players, but they just don't fit our needs. We need to worry more about the interior of the line than the tackle spots. I'm happy to stick with Light/Vollmer/Kazcur/LeVoir for another year.

Ok, stick with Light but you do so at Brady's peril, Light sucks and you're putting a weak player in the most important position on the O-line. Also, when you're looking for a player because you need one at that moment you're already behind the 8 ball, you grab a player before you'll need him, that way he has time to get up to speed and can then step in with relatively few bumps in the road.

Vollmer needs to be LT and that means we need someone else on RT, Veldheer has the best value of any tackle in the draft and he should be available to us in the 2nd round.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Neal signing a 2 year deal does suggest that the time isn't quite right for Pouncey to replace him, but we could definitely do with upgrading Koppen. But it's a value pick rather than a strictly needs-based pick, so I'm happy to differ.

Just because Neal signed doesn't mean he'll be healthy, so who is the backup plan? I've heard suggestions that Kaczur should be moved to RG, and if he pans out he can probably split time with Neal and minimize the wear and tear on both but if he can't make that switch we'll need someone else.

 

[strongside]

Pouncey is the type of pick you don't get excited for until 3 years down the road when he's in the probowl.

Its looking more and more like D Thomas will go in the first rd. I think there is a shot he slides to the 2nd only if he can't work out on the date he has set. If he does work out he'll run a 4.4 and get him drafted anywhere from #21 on.

 

[Nonentity]

Pouncey is the type of pick you don't get excited for until 3 years down the road when he's in the probowl.

That's a great line which I totally agree with, mind if I steal it for future use?

Its looking more and more like D Thomas will go in the first rd. I think there is a shot he slides to the 2nd only if he can't work out on the date he has set. If he does work out he'll run a 4.4 and get him drafted anywhere from #21 on.

I'm not sure I would take Thomas in the 1st round. There's quite a few receivers who will fall to the second round just because other players will go before them (i.e. tackles and pass-rushers). If Thomas isn't available, take Damian Williams, USC or one of the many others.

I think it's all about how you evaluate each of the receivers this year. The most important thing is separation, either off the line (i.e. acceleration combined with deep speed) or coming out of cuts (i.e. acceleration and slick route-running). If a receiver can do both, they probably deserve to go in the top half of the first.

We have the prototypical player coming off the line in Randy Moss, who is also a very good route runner. We have the prototypical route-runner (who isn't a deep threat) in Wes Welker - constant separation through acceleration, not overall speed.

What are our needs? I can see 2 needs. Firstly, a 'No. 2' receiver who can run those intermediate routes and make the defense respect their side of the field, without having to be a deep threat. They are often typified by an ability to make good YAC. Arrelious Benn is the best example in this draft.

Secondly, we need to find a replacement for Randy Moss, either in this draft or the next. To quote myself:

Moss himself says that he doesn't expect to be here in 2011 (although I would try to retain him).
...
We need to draft a No. 1 receiver who can learn under Moss for a year. If Moss doesn't leave, great - but we cannot expect a rookie to be able to start and produce in the first game of the 2011 season.

I don't know enough about Deion Branch or Troy Brown to know what sort of players they were. All I know is that Tom Brady was successful with them, and that's what matters to me. Can anyone help me out a bit to explain what skills they were best known for? That way I can build up a better picture of the type of receiver we might draft.

 

[Marqui]

I posted this on the other forum

-I like Jason Worilds a lot. He's a much more polished pass rusher than guys like Kindle, Griffen, or Dunlap and much better against the run that Hughes. Plus he actually has good football skills/technique rather than just relying on athleticism to get him through college. He definitely seems like a guy that has the tools to be a good OLB. Only problem I have with drafting him (on the first day) is he seems like just a lighter (but a little more fluid) version of Brandon Graham. If BB is willing to go with drafting shorter OLB prospects then I'd much rather go with Graham in the first. You just can't argue with Graham's production through college and the way he dominates even high level competition. I can't imagine BB putting OL at a higher protority than pass rush/front-seven.

Again though, this is all assuming BB will even consider drafting a short OLB/DE that high. He just doesn't have the size BB likes to play his scheme. At the end of the day, for me, Worilds is a late 2nd-3rd prospect for me.

-Maurice Pouncey is an interesting decision at 22 since the drop off of talent after him is significant. There is however some good OGs that can be had in the second round (Jon Asamoah, Ducasse, Roger Shaffold), so I don't know if it's necessary take Pouncey at 22. But this is just kind of a personal opinion situation and could go either way really.

-I COMPLETELY agree with you about only targeting #1 WR prospects in this draft. I always hear Pats fans talking about drafting Benn, Gilyard, Williams, and Tate but as nice as those guys are, I doubt they would ever be #1s in the NFL. Like you said, with the Moss situation, the Pats need to look at #1 WR prospects like Bryant if he falls, Thomas like you said, or Easily if we don't want to go WR on the first day. Taking all this into consideration Demaryius Thomas is definitely a good choice.

BTW I hope we resign Moss too and wait wait for 2011s draft to take an elite WR high. That way we won't have to rely on a rookie or blow a 2nd this year on a #2 guy. Thats why I like Easily in the 4th round for this year.

-There isn't really a lot of tape on Lane playing against high level competition, but from what I saw from the Senior Bowl, he's extremely raw and needs a ton of work in pretty much every area. There's no way he's a 2nd round level talent. He's kind of just all hype at this point. No higher than a 4th rounder for me. He does however fit BBs profile of big, strong, and athletic. And he also doesn't seem to be nothing but a workout warrior like Kindle, Dunlap, and Griffen. So he's probably being considered by the Pats.

-I'm with you on waiting for Day 2 too draft a TE like Moeaki or Jimmy Graham rather than blowing a second on Gronkowski, Hernandez, or Pitta. I might even wait till the 6th or 7th round to take a TE.

-Like you said 3-4 DE is a big need right now and I agree Odrick being a high floor low ceiling guy. He just doesn't seem like good value in the 1st round to me anymore. I am extremely high on Corey Wooten right now. A 6'7 talented and explosive athlete (before his knee injury, but he's been getting healthier lately). He would need to bulk up, but if he can stay healthy, he has Seymour potential at 3-4 DE.

-Greg Hardy is my guy at OLB for the Pats. And I think he's a lot higher on teams draft boards than people think. I'll leave it at that.

-I'm with on passing on ILBs and hoping for Mckenzie to pan out. I'm high on him too.

-Not sure a agree with OT not being a need. I think Veldheer would be a really good pick up in the second. I would try to trade Matt Light for a 3rd or something, then pair Veldheer with Vollmer. Having two 6'8 atheletic monsters to protect Brady for the rest of his career sound good to me.

-I think taking a pass catching RB might be a good idea. Spiller dropping to 22 would be the dream scenario but I also like Montario Hardesty. He's got the size to run between the tackles and the hands to receive out of the backfield. Like I said before, getting a late #1 WR prospect like Easily and taking a receiving RB seems like a more efficient way to fix the Pats receiving corps problems rather than blowing a 2nd rounder on a #2 or 3 WR.

So my draft would look like:

22 - Greg Hardy OLB
44 - Corey Wooten 3-4 DE
47 - Jared Veldheer OT
53 - Montario Hardesty RB
119 - Marcus Easily WR

I think the Pats would be elite if we bring in this kind of haul.

 

[bbell31]

Just because Neal signed doesn't mean he'll be healthy, so who is the backup plan? I've heard suggestions that Kaczur should be moved to RG, and if he pans out he can probably split time with Neal and minimize the wear and tear on both but if he can't make that switch we'll need someone else.

no one ever mentions connolly. he is a solid replacement and starting material at rg for us. i think the guard position is fine with bussey, connolly, neal, mankins, wendell, orhnberger, but if pouncey is a probowl center then id be happy with taking him but i think right tackle is our weakest position and would love to nab veldheer in the 2nd.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I don't know enough about Deion Branch or Troy Brown to know what sort of players they were. All I know is that Tom Brady was successful with them, and that's what matters to me. Can anyone help me out a bit to explain what skills they were best known for? That way I can build up a better picture of the type of receiver we might draft.

Tom Brady compares Wes Welker to Troy Brown, 'nuff said.

Deion Branch was another quicker WR who got open through sharp cuts on crisp routes, but he had excellent acceleration and enough straightline speed to get deep if he and Tommy could fake the defender into a false step.

Brown, Branch, and Welker can best be described as "sudden." Stopping, starting, turning - it all happened in the blink of an eye. It's why I like Mardy Gilyard in the second, he reminds me a great deal of Branch, with a little of Troy's physicality, which sounds odd when you look at how slight he is, but that's how I see him.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Tom Brady compares Wes Welker to Troy Brown, 'nuff said.

Deion Branch was another quicker WR who got open through sharp cuts on crisp routes, but he had excellent acceleration and enough straightline speed to get deep if he and Tommy could fake the defender into a false step.

Brown, Branch, and Welker can best be described as "sudden." Stopping, starting, turning - it all happened in the blink of an eye. It's why I like Mardy Gilyard in the second, he reminds me a great deal of Branch, with a little of Troy's physicality, which sounds odd when you look at how slight he is, but that's how I see him.

Gilyard sudden? Guys with chicken legs tend to be long striders. I must go back and watch more tape of him, I did not get the impression that he was sudden.

Golden Tate is extremely sudden and has outstanding change of direction. But Edleman is as well.

The X receiver on the outside is where we are deficient. And there are no blue chippers in this draft at that position, next year however is the mother load. Green, Jones, Badwin etc.

Cooper of Florida ran a 4.4 forty and could be an option at the X reciver position in our offense. But like Chad Jackson, the ability to run option routes must be answered before investing a draft pick in the kid.

 

[bbell31]

Tom Brady compares Wes Welker to Troy Brown, 'nuff said.

Deion Branch was another quicker WR who got open through sharp cuts on crisp routes, but he had excellent acceleration and enough straightline speed to get deep if he and Tommy could fake the defender into a false step.

Brown, Branch, and Welker can best be described as "sudden." Stopping, starting, turning - it all happened in the blink of an eye. It's why I like Mardy Gilyard in the second, he reminds me a great deal of Branch, with a little of Troy's physicality, which sounds odd when you look at how slight he is, but that's how I see him.

its hard for me to c that as our wisest pick in the second considering you can get guys like him latter and we have welker, edelman, tate, slater, aiken, moss, stanback, patten

 

[dryheat44]

Hi everyone,

.

I don't necessarily agree with your picks, but given your rationale, they do make sense. Good job.

 

[bbell31]

1st pick-kindle or pouncey..lets go with these prospects in the second, either

best
mathews
demaryius
veldheer
saffold
asamoah
pitta
hernandez
gronkowski
hughes
koa misi
worilds

:rocker:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Gilyard sudden? Guys with chicken legs tend to be long striders. I must go back and watch more tape of him, I did not get the impression that he was sudden.

Golden Tate is extremely sudden and has outstanding change of direction. But Edleman is as well.

The X receiver on the outside is where we are deficient. And there are no blue chippers in this draft at that position, next year however is the mother load. Green, Jones, Badwin etc.

Cooper of Florida ran a 4.4 forty and could be an option at the X reciver position in our offense. But like Chad Jackson, the ability to run option routes must be answered before investing a draft pick in the kid.

I thought Cooper disappeared in the Senior Bowl, it was Jeremy Williams who stood out for the South with a little bit of Andre Roberts.

I still want Gilyard in the second - like Golden Tate he's a converted RB and a gamer who brings added value in the return game. I'd also like to see someone like Blair White or Marcus Easley or Bryan Anderson on Day Three. I think Easley could develop into an X/Y kid to stretch the field and make the big play, White/Anderson would be more of your D-Giv guys, helping move the chains and in a pinch carrying the load.