DE-Ranks and Values

[jeffbiologist]

After trading out Seymour and letting Green walk our most glaring hole has to be at DE. You can never have enough DLinemen and BB has a history of taking them in the first round. With more 3-4 defenses than ever these guys are getting tougher to find. Holding still at #22 may not be an option to get someone to start at that position this year. So lets eliminate the hybrid DE/OLBs and NTs, who do you think can play that technique and where do you think the value drops off? There is alot of talk about the 2 best DT's at the top of the draft this year, what would their fit be at a 3-4 DE? After Odrick, who are the next best guys?? We have all these 2nd round picks but I havent seen anyone jumping on anyone there to be an impact player. Is anyone comfortable with Wright starting at DE??? Pryor?? Brace??

 

[WhiZa]

Letting Green walk, and trying to sign Peppers, says to me we are in for more 4-3 front. So if I'm the Patriots I would put highest value on a 4-3 DE who can play that role in their first year and hopefully grow into the OLB position. there are a lot of candidates this year who are like that.

 

[cstjohn17]

After trading out Seymour and letting Green walk our most glaring hole has to be at DE. You can never have enough DLinemen and BB has a history of taking them in the first round. With more 3-4 defenses than ever these guys are getting tougher to find. Holding still at #22 may not be an option to get someone to start at that position this year. So lets eliminate the hybrid DE/OLBs and NTs, who do you think can play that technique and where do you think the value drops off? There is alot of talk about the 2 best DT's at the top of the draft this year, what would their fit be at a 3-4 DE? After Odrick, who are the next best guys?? We have all these 2nd round picks but I havent seen anyone jumping on anyone there to be an impact player. Is anyone comfortable with Wright starting at DE??? Pryor?? Brace??

Basically the Patriots are returning the same unit as last year across the D Line minus Green who was much more of a situational player. So if the team did nothing they could put out an adequate line.

God I hope they don't do that. I want the front seven to be superior.

Outside of Odrick I don't see anyone who can come close to starting in year 1 that is why I have proposed tarding a 2nd rounder for either Marcus Spears or Kedric Golston from Washington.

Some possibilities for 3-4 DE, as you said not an OLB, not a NT but a 3-4 end include:
Round 1
Jared Odrick DT Penn State 6-5 304

Round 2
Tyson Alualu DT California 6-3 295 <-- a bit short but has played in a 3-4
Cam Thomas DT North Carolina 6-4 330 <-- a bit heavy but apparently moves pretty well

Rounds 2+
Alex Carrington DE Arkansas State 6-5 285
Lamarr Houston DT Texas 6-3 305
Mike Neal DT Purdue 6-3 294
Arthur Jones DT Syracuse 6-3 301
C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina 6-3 290
Al Woods DT LSU
Vince Oghobaase DT Duke 6-5 302 <-- falling fast
Sean Lissemore DT William & Mary 6-3 297

Very interested in opinions on these or any other prospects.

 

[upstater1]

Corey Wooten is 6'6" 285 pounds and a pretty good player.

You can get him in the middle of the 2nd round, if that's what you're looking for.

So big DEs are at a premium but you don't have to go all out to jump on Odrick the way teams were jumping on Jackson last year.

There are other players like Wooten out there.

 

[patchick]

After Odrick, who are the next best guys?? We have all these 2nd round picks but I havent seen anyone jumping on anyone there to be an impact player.

My quick summary of board discussion to date, besides Wootton mentioned above:

Alex Carrington is the most popular pick after Odrick, a few even like him better.

On day 3 you have:

- Clifton Geathers, an extraordinary physical specimen from an NFL family who has never shown the effort/intangibles you'd like to see

- Al Woods, whose 37" vertical raised a lot of eyebrows; had a private workout with the Pats

- Brandon Deaderick, has some past character question marks and marginal production on field, but the right skill set

- Sean Lissemore, an athletic small-school player who didn't get a combine invite, a little reminiscent of Mike Wright

 

[bucky]

Corey Wooten is 6'6" 285 pounds and a pretty good player.

You can get him in the middle of the 2nd round, if that's what you're looking for.

So big DEs are at a premium but you don't have to go all out to jump on Odrick the way teams were jumping on Jackson last year.

There are other players like Wooten out there.

Wooten is the guy. He had 10 sacks and was dominant as a Jr before tearing his ACL. He would have been a 1st round pick last year. He's got all the measurables and also apparently the right intangibles to play here.

Would he be a starter from day 1? Probably not given that he's been playing DE in a 4 man front. But I can envision the Pats getting by with some combination of the guys currently on the roster, 4 man line, and maybe a vet run-stuffer like Marques Douglas.

 

[Defsoul]

Per ESPNInsider, Wooton is also pretty stout against the run. He would be my second choice after Odrick.

 

[Metaphors]

Some possibilities for 3-4 DE, as you said not an OLB, not a NT but a 3-4 end include:
Round 1
Jared Odrick DT Penn State 6-5 304

Round 2
Tyson Alualu DT California 6-3 295 <-- a bit short but has played in a 3-4
Cam Thomas DT North Carolina 6-4 330 <-- a bit heavy but apparently moves pretty well

Rounds 2+
Alex Carrington DE Arkansas State 6-5 285
Lamarr Houston DT Texas 6-3 305
Mike Neal DT Purdue 6-3 294
Arthur Jones DT Syracuse 6-3 301
C.J. Wilson DE East Carolina 6-3 290
Al Woods DT LSU
Vince Oghobaase DT Duke 6-5 302 <-- falling fast
Sean Lissemore DT William & Mary 6-3 297

Very interested in opinions on these or any other prospects.

Thanks for the list. My take on guys I've seen (heavy on ACC/SEC based on my location in Raleigh):

Odrick - Seems like an ideal fit and will cost the #22 (or a very slight trade-down) to get him

Houston - If the Pats miss out on Odrick or decide to go a different direction with #22, Houston would be my plan B. Not as consistently solid as Odrick but has the functional strength, leverage and hand-fighting skills to translate to 3-4 end.

Cam Thomas - Doesn't move well enough horizontally to be a 3-4 DE. Should be an excellent 3-4 NT though for teams not willing/able to get Cody.

Oghobaase - Not a great athlete and didn't have great production in a very down ACC. Smart and high-effort guy and that is worth something, just not sold that he will make a difference in the NFL.

Woods - Hasn't played enough for me to get a good grip on how he would translate. A bit risky to take high but seems to have skills that make him a worthwhile project.

Haven't seen the rest enough (or at all) to make intelligent observations but some sound interesting (Alualu for experience in 3-4 and Carrington for his size/strength and pass rush potential).

One wildcard you didn't include...Brian Price. Way too short for a prototype 3-4 end but has an extremely high motor that translated into being a disruptive force in college. Don't think he will last into the 2nd round so the point is likely moot, but if the Pats don't get Odrick and Price starts to slip...

 

[Ochmed Jones]

My Patriots type players board for 3-4 DE's

Suh (projected top 5 pick)
Odrick (Projected late 1st to early 2nd round)
Wooten (Projected 2nd round)
Carrington (Projected late 2nd round to early 3rd round)
* Aluala (Projected 3rd to 4th round)
Geathers (Projected 3rd round to 6th round)
* Deaderick (Projected 5th to 7th round)
Oghobasse (Projected 5th to UDFA)
* Washington (Projected 6th to UDFA)
Worthington (Projected 6th to UDFA)
Kade Weston (projected 7th to UDFA)

* Played the 3-4 in college.

I would like to see us trade up and grab Suh, but I consider it highly unlikely for BB to make such a bold and expensive move.

 

[Charles Barwin]

"Letting Green walk, and trying to sign Peppers, says to me we are in for more 4-3 front."

I hope you are right. There are some good 4-3 ends in this draft, none of whom are a sure thing as OLB converts.

Also, Brace excelled with another nose tackle type next to him in college. He could be a valuable backup this year.

Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie are all 3-4 capable, the latter two being actually better suited to the 4-3.

JPP, Dunlap, Graham, or Griffen would be sweet at 22.

 

[jeffbiologist]

Wooten is the guy. He had 10 sacks and was dominant as a Jr before tearing his ACL. He would have been a 1st round pick last year. He's got all the measurables and also apparently the right intangibles to play here.

Would he be a starter from day 1? Probably not given that he's been playing DE in a 4 man front. But I can envision the Pats getting by with some combination of the guys currently on the roster, 4 man line, and maybe a vet run-stuffer like Marques Douglas.

This kinda leads to my point. If we draft a guy in the first round we pretty much hand him a starting job, look at the history. There simply arent that many guys at DE that can do this. Why take a guy later in the draft when we can use a theoretically higher '11 pick(Oakland's) to get such a player? If there is no such player on the radar for next year I would tend to agree with one of the other posters about Suh. His value may be increased not only because he could fit our greatest need but that there is such a significant drop in talent between him and the next highest guy...even into 2011.
And I am getting tired of the "he's too $$" crowd.....teams like the Lions and Rams have lots of those players on their rosters and are not in "cap jail" by any means(yes I know there is no cap this year-you know what I mean). If we cut Thomas who besides Wilfork and Brady and Moss will be making even AVERAGE $$??

 

[dryheat44]

Arthur Jones would be a good pick, starting in the late 2nd. Other names to keep in mind that haven't (I don't think) been mentioned are Cory Peters from Kentucky, Robert Rose from Ohio St, Charles Alexander from LSU, and Trey Jacobs from Liberty. Callahan Bright from Div. 2 Shaw had a thread dedicated to him at one time, and he's a very intriguing guy for one of our 93 7th rounders.

 

[bbell31]

we are not going to a base 4-3..my goodness..maybe c it sum but a 3-4 and nickel will be the majority

 

[cstjohn17]

This kinda leads to my point. If we draft a guy in the first round we pretty much hand him a starting job, look at the history. There simply arent that many guys at DE that can do this. Why take a guy later in the draft when we can use a theoretically higher '11 pick(Oakland's) to get such a player? If there is no such player on the radar for next year I would tend to agree with one of the other posters about Suh. His value may be increased not only because he could fit our greatest need but that there is such a significant drop in talent between him and the next highest guy...even into 2011.
And I am getting tired of the "he's too $$" crowd.....teams like the Lions and Rams have lots of those players on their rosters and are not in "cap jail" by any means(yes I know there is no cap this year-you know what I mean). If we cut Thomas who besides Wilfork and Brady and Moss will be making even AVERAGE $$??

It is more than just money, I think St. Louis would trade the #1 slot if the Patriots gave them pick #22, #44 and both first rounders next year. Pretty steep price to pay.

 

[bbell31]

we should stay put at 22 or trade back

 

[dryheat44]

And I am getting tired of the "he's too $$" crowd.....teams like the Lions and Rams have lots of those players on their rosters and are not in "cap jail" by any means(yes I know there is no cap this year-you know what I mean). If we cut Thomas who besides Wilfork and Brady and Moss will be making even AVERAGE $$??

Yes, and in all fairness, teams like the Lions and Rams suck...in part because they have a disproportionate amount of cap space invested in those kind of picks.

Really, I think those two teams one a total of 3 games last year, and one was when they played each other. The year before I think they won a total of 2 games. The year before maybe 5 games. Let's not emulate those kind of teams.

 

[mcsully]

Since a DE in our system has not gotten over 8 sacks (i could be wrong) and the issues we had against the run last year, I'm going to say T Cody.. Yes he's projected for NT but he reminds me a lot of Ngata..

A player who can collapse the pocket and hold up against the run and allow our LB's to make plays..

He adds insurance for Wilfork, who missed 3 games last year, and gives us more flexibility on Dime and Nickle defenses.. The thouht of putting Wilfork and Cody as DL and having 4-5 LB's /Safties coming on a blitz.. You know teams wouldnt' be able to draw on them.

Just a thought and want to put something out there different..

 

[jeffbiologist]

Arthur Jones would be a good pick, starting in the late 2nd. Other names to keep in mind that haven't (I don't think) been mentioned are Cory Peters from Kentucky, Robert Rose from Ohio St, Charles Alexander from LSU, and Trey Jacobs from Liberty. Callahan Bright from Div. 2 Shaw had a thread dedicated to him at one time, and he's a very intriguing guy for one of our 93 7th rounders.

There is nothing wrong picking up a late rounder like Pryor last year to rotate in but we need starting talent on first down. For those of us valuing Suh, I will compare it to a new baseball stat--VORP--Value Over Replacement Player. His value would be not only over what is available in this draft(and 2011)but whats on the roster. There has got to be a talent threshold that if it drops below a certain level they may be better off going with what they have for 2010 and readdressing it in 2011.
So does Wright start the season as a DE? Given the choice of Wright, a FA/Jag replacement, last year's lower picks(Brace/Pryor), a value draft pick or overpaying for talent like Suh I simply dont see much choice there. Remember if we give up 3-4 picks thats 3-4 hi picks we dont have to pay....and that means 3-4 lower(CHEAPER)picks make the team to balance out the equation. I would rather have a guy making $9M/yr and 3 guys making $300K than 4 guys each making $2.5M/league average. Pay the talent and keep the rest really hungry looking to overproduce their value. The only problem is choosing who to pay, its not paying them. We had enough Galloway/Taylor/Lewis/Baker-types last year. Agree? If you can truely evaluate talent and develop talent what better way than to have one of the best players there for the rest to learn from?

 

[cstjohn17]

There is nothing wrong picking up a late rounder like Pryor last year to rotate in but we need starting talent on first down. For those of us valuing Suh, I will compare it to a new baseball stat--VORP--Value Over Replacement Player. His value would be not only over what is available in this draft(and 2011)but whats on the roster. There has got to be a talent threshold that if it drops below a certain level they may be better off going with what they have for 2010 and readdressing it in 2011.
So does Wright start the season as a DE? Given the choice of Wright, a FA/Jag replacement, last year's lower picks(Brace/Pryor), a value draft pick or overpaying for talent like Suh I simply dont see much choice there. Remember if we give up 3-4 picks thats 3-4 hi picks we dont have to pay....and that means 3-4 lower(CHEAPER)picks make the team to balance out the equation. I would rather have a guy making $9M/yr and 3 guys making $300K than 4 guys each making $2.5M/league average. Pay the talent and keep the rest really hungry looking to overproduce their value. The only problem is choosing who to pay, its not paying them. We had enough Galloway/Taylor/Lewis/Baker-types last year. Agree? If you can truely evaluate talent and develop talent what better way than to have one of the best players there for the rest to learn from?

I don't really know VORP but I get your point. I also believe that 10 dimes doesn't equal a dollar (ie. 10 pretty good or ok players doesn't equal a superstar) but... if the Patriots blow their load (so to speak) on a superstar 3-4 DE who plays OLB / 3rd WR / ILB? Scrubs that is who? So you become dominant in one unit but every other unit is watered down. Not to mention the fact that there is no way Detroit or New England would ever make the trade.

 

[bucky]

By the way, I disagree with the whole premise that RDE is the biggest hole on this team. The awful playoff game is obviously the last and most lasting impression of that team. But besides that game, the Pats were actually pretty good against the run all year. The problem is that they couldn't rush the passer, event in the nickel formations. I think the DL could be OK with a year under the belt of Brace and Pryor. Another guy worth watching is last year's 7th round pick - Darryl Richard. He has the size to play the position and was a 2 gap DL in college. Based on his combine numbers, he clearly needed some time in the weight room. Assuming he's gotten stronger and bulkier, he might well be a part-time DE for this team.