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Driving down to Foxwoods for the spring poker tournament, my mind shifted from calculating the odds of flopping a flush when you hold suited connectors, to figuring out what is going on at the WR position. And because this is a defined topic it will be a shorter post....relatively Here is what came to mind.
I broke it down to analyzing what we have. Looking at who we can draft, and finally what is available in the FA market. And here's the bottom line right up front. I think we will be fine, by the time we are ready to play that first game in September.
Current Roster
Randy Moss: I really think Moss is getting a bum rap to the point he being underrated. 1200+yds and 13 TDs is a fine season, especially when you figure he had a sub par Brady this year. Another thing we seem to take for granted is Moss' durability. For three years now, he has answered the bell for just about every game he's been asked to play. And while the nitpickers can point out individual plays where he appears to be taking off, he has also shown that he is willing to play through injuries like his bad back and dislocated shoulder. Toughness isn't a word that is associated with Moss very much, but for his years here, Moss has been a very tough WR.
Bottom line here is that, even in the advanced stages of his career, Moss is not just a true #1 WR, who more than 25 teams would love to have lining up for them, he is someone we can count on. So we go that going for us right off the bat.
Wes Welker: Now unfortunately, Wes is someone we cannot count on. I think that if he plays anytime before the 8th game of the season, it will be a bonus. I think we should expect to see a somewhat diminished Wes Welker when he DOES return. I'm thinking of a solid possession guy a la Troy Brown at the latter stages of his career. Less YAC than what you'd expect in his prime, but he will run great routes and catch everything thrown to him. In other words we should get back the guy that most of us expected when we signed him (because anyone who told you they expected him to catch 300+ balls in 3 years is lying his ass off
Bottom Line - This will be a net loss to the WR corp no matter how you couch it. Loss of playing time, loss of physical ability, and a loss of depth.
Julian Edelman - I was looking at his numbers the other day and given the fact he had a broken arm for most of the season, played behind the guy who LED the league in receptions, and, oh yeah, never played the position before at ANY level; frankly he had a spectacular year. There were only 2 other Rookies in the AFC who caught more passes. If you reflect on it for a second, its remarkable. He did what Joey Galloway and several other gifted WRs couldn't, and mastered a VERY complex passing offense.
While most just think about him as a Welker clone, he is bigger, stronger (6' 195), with more straight line speed than Welker. Most importantly, EVERY time he had a chance at extended playing time, he produced. Although he lacks Welker's spectacular burst, he isn't a slouch at quickness as his 3 cone times indicated. AND with expanded opportunities, he will be even better this year. I think he will be vastly underrated going into this season.....He won't be when it over.
Brandon Tate: He's the sleeper. First round talent, available to us because we was hurt in his senior year, he has the talent to be OUR Percy Harvin, a big play making WR/returner. But after almost 2 years of very limited play due to injury, he isn't someone we can count on. But he is someone we can hope for. Kind of like an extra draft pick of a high potential guy.
Sam Aiken - Sam did a credible job last year filling in, but the fact is that he ISN'T a guy you want out there as the #2 for a full season of a championship team. He's a great special teamer, who is an injury replacement. In other words a good guy to have as one of your receiver corps, just not a guy you want to count on for a lot of production
David Patten: Sorry but I can't see this being anything more than a nice camp story, a la Patrick Pass. I will truly be worried about this WR corp, if David Patten is still part of the team at the end of camp.
BTW- what ever happened to that kid we all loved in camp from Nebraska. Is he still on the 80 man roster?
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS (Draft)
I'm actually going to let the Draft gurus fill in the blanks for who is on the radar. I think that it is the current wisdom that one of those first 4 picks will be used on a WR. However it will be interesting to see how it pans out. If we DON'T pick a WR with one of those early picks, then it COULD tell us that BB is happy with Tate and Edelman's development this off season, doesn't want to add another WR from the top of the draft. It also could mean that they have a FA WR targeted, if not signed by the draft. How the draft runs will tell us a lot about how BB feels about all the players discussed above.
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS (FA)
I think any talk about any of the RFA WRs is pretty much wild speculation. BB's history should prove that he is loathe to spend a first round pick on a WR. The fact is that more quality WRs can be gotten in the middle to low rounds, and UDFA. There are simply more WR type athletes out there than QB, DL, or those with the ability to rush the passer. Every year has at LEAST a half dozen College WRs with first round grades. You can't say that for those other positions. So forget about Marshall or Austin. When it come to FA WRs, the 3 most likely candidates are as follows
Josh Reed - I liked him coming out of LSU, and I think he has underachieved in Buffalo. Part of that CAN be attributed to their QB situation, and offensive coaching. I think he'd be a good fit here either as the slot or flanker. A solid, if unspectacular addition
Kevin Curtis - A true flanker who at his best can offer some size and speed opposite Moss. The question is, that after 2 injury riddled seasons, is he at his best? But if the Pats signed him, it would solve an immediate hole.
Terrell Owens - Yes I said it, TO. TO the nut. TO the crazy. TO the distraction.... BUT also TO the proven producer in a flanker/SE. He will go over the middle, he will give you YAC, he will block on runs, he will spread the field. In fact skill wise, he is a perfect fit for what we are missing for a one year period. The question is, could we support all the baggage that comes with him? I say we could, and it sure would make the next 9 months anything but DULL So I'm on record. Sign TO.....(one year only)
If there is another FA WR out that that someone thinks might be able to come in and make an impact let me know. I know Laverneous Coles is out there. I loved him when he was with the Jets. He always killed the Pats, but there is a question about his health now. Any others??????? This would be a good thread to advise.
OK, it wasn't very brief, but when have I ever been.
I broke it down to analyzing what we have. Looking at who we can draft, and finally what is available in the FA market. And here's the bottom line right up front. I think we will be fine, by the time we are ready to play that first game in September.
Current Roster
Randy Moss: I really think Moss is getting a bum rap to the point he being underrated. 1200+yds and 13 TDs is a fine season, especially when you figure he had a sub par Brady this year. Another thing we seem to take for granted is Moss' durability. For three years now, he has answered the bell for just about every game he's been asked to play. And while the nitpickers can point out individual plays where he appears to be taking off, he has also shown that he is willing to play through injuries like his bad back and dislocated shoulder. Toughness isn't a word that is associated with Moss very much, but for his years here, Moss has been a very tough WR.
Bottom line here is that, even in the advanced stages of his career, Moss is not just a true #1 WR, who more than 25 teams would love to have lining up for them, he is someone we can count on. So we go that going for us right off the bat.
Wes Welker: Now unfortunately, Wes is someone we cannot count on. I think that if he plays anytime before the 8th game of the season, it will be a bonus. I think we should expect to see a somewhat diminished Wes Welker when he DOES return. I'm thinking of a solid possession guy a la Troy Brown at the latter stages of his career. Less YAC than what you'd expect in his prime, but he will run great routes and catch everything thrown to him. In other words we should get back the guy that most of us expected when we signed him (because anyone who told you they expected him to catch 300+ balls in 3 years is lying his ass off
Bottom Line - This will be a net loss to the WR corp no matter how you couch it. Loss of playing time, loss of physical ability, and a loss of depth.
Julian Edelman - I was looking at his numbers the other day and given the fact he had a broken arm for most of the season, played behind the guy who LED the league in receptions, and, oh yeah, never played the position before at ANY level; frankly he had a spectacular year. There were only 2 other Rookies in the AFC who caught more passes. If you reflect on it for a second, its remarkable. He did what Joey Galloway and several other gifted WRs couldn't, and mastered a VERY complex passing offense.
While most just think about him as a Welker clone, he is bigger, stronger (6' 195), with more straight line speed than Welker. Most importantly, EVERY time he had a chance at extended playing time, he produced. Although he lacks Welker's spectacular burst, he isn't a slouch at quickness as his 3 cone times indicated. AND with expanded opportunities, he will be even better this year. I think he will be vastly underrated going into this season.....He won't be when it over.
Brandon Tate: He's the sleeper. First round talent, available to us because we was hurt in his senior year, he has the talent to be OUR Percy Harvin, a big play making WR/returner. But after almost 2 years of very limited play due to injury, he isn't someone we can count on. But he is someone we can hope for. Kind of like an extra draft pick of a high potential guy.
Sam Aiken - Sam did a credible job last year filling in, but the fact is that he ISN'T a guy you want out there as the #2 for a full season of a championship team. He's a great special teamer, who is an injury replacement. In other words a good guy to have as one of your receiver corps, just not a guy you want to count on for a lot of production
David Patten: Sorry but I can't see this being anything more than a nice camp story, a la Patrick Pass. I will truly be worried about this WR corp, if David Patten is still part of the team at the end of camp.
BTW- what ever happened to that kid we all loved in camp from Nebraska. Is he still on the 80 man roster?
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS (Draft)
I'm actually going to let the Draft gurus fill in the blanks for who is on the radar. I think that it is the current wisdom that one of those first 4 picks will be used on a WR. However it will be interesting to see how it pans out. If we DON'T pick a WR with one of those early picks, then it COULD tell us that BB is happy with Tate and Edelman's development this off season, doesn't want to add another WR from the top of the draft. It also could mean that they have a FA WR targeted, if not signed by the draft. How the draft runs will tell us a lot about how BB feels about all the players discussed above.
POSSIBLE ADDITIONS (FA)
I think any talk about any of the RFA WRs is pretty much wild speculation. BB's history should prove that he is loathe to spend a first round pick on a WR. The fact is that more quality WRs can be gotten in the middle to low rounds, and UDFA. There are simply more WR type athletes out there than QB, DL, or those with the ability to rush the passer. Every year has at LEAST a half dozen College WRs with first round grades. You can't say that for those other positions. So forget about Marshall or Austin. When it come to FA WRs, the 3 most likely candidates are as follows
Josh Reed - I liked him coming out of LSU, and I think he has underachieved in Buffalo. Part of that CAN be attributed to their QB situation, and offensive coaching. I think he'd be a good fit here either as the slot or flanker. A solid, if unspectacular addition
Kevin Curtis - A true flanker who at his best can offer some size and speed opposite Moss. The question is, that after 2 injury riddled seasons, is he at his best? But if the Pats signed him, it would solve an immediate hole.
Terrell Owens - Yes I said it, TO. TO the nut. TO the crazy. TO the distraction.... BUT also TO the proven producer in a flanker/SE. He will go over the middle, he will give you YAC, he will block on runs, he will spread the field. In fact skill wise, he is a perfect fit for what we are missing for a one year period. The question is, could we support all the baggage that comes with him? I say we could, and it sure would make the next 9 months anything but DULL So I'm on record. Sign TO.....(one year only)
If there is another FA WR out that that someone thinks might be able to come in and make an impact let me know. I know Laverneous Coles is out there. I loved him when he was with the Jets. He always killed the Pats, but there is a question about his health now. Any others??????? This would be a good thread to advise.
OK, it wasn't very brief, but when have I ever been.
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