This one is for you DW

[cstjohn17]

NFL Draft - 2010 Pro Football Draft Analysis

"Approximately two hundred and fifty-five players are drafted every year. Yet, a typical NFL Draft class produces only forty to fifty players who will develop into productive starters. The reality is that the majority of NFL draft picks struggle to even make an active roster or are marginal back-ups and are out of the league within four years. It is also a fact that about one third of the players selected in the 1st round will disappoint."

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

That applies only to New England of course, we all have been told how the other teams are much smarter about their drafts. :snob:

 

[convertedpatsfan]

I don't understand the point of this post. It seems to imply that the draft isn't the best way to acquire good players, or maybe draft picks are overvalued when it comes to team-building. Maybe I misunderstood, since the link you provided seems to be saying the opposite. The front page article title is:

Championship teams are built primarily through the NFL draft.

The paragraph you quoted follows this one:

The decisions made on draft day will impact a team for years to come. If a NFL team wants to win games in the fall then they have to choose wisely in April. Coaching is important, but the bottom line is that good players win games. And the most cost-effective way to find good players is usually through the NFL Draft.

 

[Marqui]

Still, you have to draft well to build a championship team.

 

[BritPat]

I don't understand the point of this post. It seems to imply that the draft isn't the best way to acquire good players, or maybe draft picks are overvalued when it comes to team-building. Maybe I misunderstood, since the link you provided seems to be saying the opposite. The front page article title is:

Championship teams are built primarily through the NFL draft.

The paragraph you quoted follows this one:

The decisions made on draft day will impact a team for years to come. If a NFL team wants to win games in the fall then they have to choose wisely in April. Coaching is important, but the bottom line is that good players win games. And the most cost-effective way to find good players is usually through the NFL Draft.

No, it implies that the Draft is still a hit and miss affair where every team will make bad picks and regularly.

DW seems to think the other 31 teams never make bad picks, and we're the only ones who do (I seem to remember a quote from him about the Dolphins FO giving us a lesson in Drafting right before they went 1-15 - always makes me chuckle).

 

[BritPat]

Still, you have to draft well to build a championship team.

Or, if you're the Saints, most of your difference makers will come via FA.

Brees, Sharper, Greer, Gay, Hargrove, Vilma, Shanle, Godwin, Shockey......

 

[convertedpatsfan]

No, it implies that the Draft is still a hit and miss affair where every team will make bad picks and regularly.

DW seems to think the other 31 teams never make bad picks, and we're the only ones who do (I seem to remember a quote from him about the Dolphins FO giving us a lesson in Drafting right before they went 1-15 - always makes me chuckle).

Thanks for the clarification there. I was really confused for a bit

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Oh, one other point, to borrow from DW's posts.

Here is a list of all the 2007 second-round draftees who started 10 games this year (played/started):

Gerald Alexander (15/10)
Justin Blalock (16/16)
Justin Durant (13/13)
David Harris (16/16)
Chris Houston (12/10)
Ryan Kalil (16/16)
Zach Miller (15/15)
Sabby Piscitelli (16/15)
Paul Posluszny (12/12)
Sidney Rice (16/14)
Samson Satele (15/12)
Steve Smith (16/15)
Eric Weddle (13/13)
Josh Wilson (12/12)

Just 16/32.

 

[Marqui]

Or, if you're the Saints, most of your difference makers will come via FA.

Brees, Sharper, Greer, Gay, Hargrove, Vilma, Shanle, Godwin, Shockey......

True. You need a combination of both drafting well and signing cost-efficient FAs that fit your system. Doing trades that values in your favor doesn't hurt either.

 

[DW Toys]

No, it implies that the Draft is still a hit and miss affair where every team will make bad picks and regularly.

DW seems to think the other 31 teams never make bad picks, and we're the only ones who do (I seem to remember a quote from him about the Dolphins FO giving us a lesson in Drafting right before they went 1-15 - always makes me chuckle).

What??
With all due respect, no you have me confused with another poster Britt. I am 180 degrees from that. I am the one who has been preaching let's not go crazy thinking four choices in the top 53 in this Draft turn this Team around. Statistics say maybe two of our eight choices will become contributing valuable full time starters, key transitional or situational players (kickers , punters etc) or become Pro Bowl type players. Only 47% of all top ten Draftees every year actually make at least one Pro Bowl.

We need more than just draft choices and I am of the camp that if a proven NFL player can be had as a reasonable Trade, if the financials work and if the give-up is fair, I would rather the Trade to help my Team right now, not a "definite maybe" which is what a Draft choice is with a success rate over a three year period of time, and that being 18%.

Think of Players as in these trades or FAs such as Moss, Vrabel, Welker, Corey Dillon, Harrison and to a lesser extent Andruzzi, Fauria, David Patten, Colvin, AD (SOMETIMES), Caldwell, Antoine Smith, Keith Traylor and more.

My theory and (IMO) I trade my #22 pick for Brandon Marshall or DE/OLB Ray Edwards in a second because at that pick and down there is no one on the board any better and these guys are young and the bonus,.... NFL experience. Do I want to take a 21 year old kid like Dez Bryant and Draft him over a WR with top five NFL talent like Marshall knowing Moss could leave after 2010a nd Bryant could seamlessly be the #1 WR? Marshal has baggage, yet so does Bryant, BUT Posters would scream if at #22 Bryant slips down there and we do not Draft him. Yes Marshall will cost , but your buying NFL experience if you look at it that way.

Dolphins? I do not ever recall praising the Dolphins FO for their Draft patterns in 1-15 years or in 2008 when they won the AFC East.
Sorry, It wasn't I Cousin.

Last year or Draft went fairly well. We'll know in three years just how well. The few years before that our Drafts were pretty bad. We all admit that.

DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

NFL Draft - 2010 Pro Football Draft Analysis

"Approximately two hundred and fifty-five players are drafted every year. Yet, a typical NFL Draft class produces only forty to fifty players who will develop into productive starters. The reality is that the majority of NFL draft picks struggle to even make an active roster or are marginal back-ups and are out of the league within four years. It is also a fact that about one third of the players selected in the 1st round will disappoint."

Thank you for that information. I appreciate that.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Still, you have to draft well to build a championship team.

I agree 100%. I just have issue with some who have said we have 8 Draft choices in a very good Draft class. The mantra is "We are saved". I say I would take some of those valuable picks and swap them for proven top NFL ready players if the opportunity presents itself and the exchange and salaries are reasonable. We need an infusion of ready-to-go NFL talent. Our talent is rated (agreed it's only March) is 14th in the league. It seems according to the media and NFL experts (and who are they) we are at the lowest talent collection of players (total roster) in years. Bring in some top FAs and then add some choices is what I am saying.

I don't know about you Cousins but I want 2010 to be better than 2009. I am not concerned about 2013 right now.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Oh, one other point, to borrow from DW's posts.

Here is a list of all the 2007 second-round draftees who started 10 games this year (played/started):

Gerald Alexander (15/10)
Justin Blalock (16/16)
Justin Durant (13/13)
David Harris (16/16)
Chris Houston (12/10)
Ryan Kalil (16/16)
Zach Miller (15/15)
Sabby Piscitelli (16/15)
Paul Posluszny (12/12)
Sidney Rice (16/14)
Samson Satele (15/12)
Steve Smith (16/15)
Eric Weddle (13/13)
Josh Wilson (12/12)

Just 16/32.

Good point and I agree what you say but there is a caveat. My statement based on information of a study by the University of Illinois makes it clear that these players have to be of a major NFL long time starter playing at a higher level, a significant rotation or situational player (Reggie Bush, Kevin Faulk, Kicker, Punter etc>.) or being Pro Bowl caliber. My take on that is the information suggests that these are not replaceable pieces (ie JAGS). Many on this list are of the former. Some could lose their starting job in the next season. I agree it is nit picking but the clarification is "successful Draft". An everyday player is just average.

The ones in the Dark type I agree with. The others MAY be replaceable. Some might become more established in even a longer time.
DW Toys

Gerald Alexander (15/10)
Justin Blalock (16/16)
Justin Durant (13/13)
David Harris (16/16)
Chris Houston (12/10)
Ryan Kalil (16/16)
Zach Miller (15/15)
Sabby Piscitelli (16/15)
Paul Posluszny (12/12)
Sidney Rice (16/14)
Samson Satele (15/12)
Steve Smith (16/15)
Eric Weddle (13/13)
Josh Wilson (12/12)

 

[spacecrime]

I don't understand the point of this post. It seems to imply that the draft isn't the best way to acquire good players,

The draft is still the best way to get good players.

The only 'problem' is if you think you must hit on every pick. If the draft provides 40% quality starters, and you have 7 draft picks, then you can get 4 quality starters each draft, and get a whole team's worth every five-six years.

It is just popular here lately to bash the Pats for not hitting on enough draft picks. Some like to point to Watson and Maroney as busts because they although they are starting quality players, they aren't probowlers.

The Colts missed with Tony Ugoh and others. Big deal. Almost their whole team is comprised of draft picks. It isn't about the 60% you miss on. It is about the 40 % you hit on.

 

[DW Toys]

The draft is still the best way to get good players.

The only 'problem' is if you think you must hit on every pick. If the draft provides 40% quality starters, and you have 7 draft picks, then you can get 4 quality starters each draft, and get a whole team's worth every five-six years.

It is just popular here lately to bash the Pats for not hitting on enough draft picks. Some like to point to Watson and Maroney as busts because they although they are starting quality players, they aren't probowlers.

The Colts missed with Tony Ugoh and others. Big deal. Almost their whole team is comprised of draft picks. It isn't about the 60% you miss on. It is about the 40 % you hit on.

Well thought out but one problem arises. It's not 40%. It is 18% upon NFL average. If we get 4 high quality players that is double the average. It's not a homerun every time up but like hitting in a game with three doubles and a single, and knocking in a few. It's not impossible but a little unrealistic every game.

I do not disagree with you that the Draft is a great way to get players but we have 13 holes to fill with starters and needed back ups. Maybe 4 Draft choices are going to work out. The point is the Draft supplements your talent and upgrades and rotates the roster. If you have holes to fill and you Draft by need instead of BPA, you wind up in trouble. IMO you fill some of these holes by FA and Trades prior or during the Draft.
DW Toys

 

[Ochmed Jones]

The draft is still the best way to get good players.

The only 'problem' is if you think you must hit on every pick. If the draft provides 40% quality starters, and you have 7 draft picks, then you can get 4 quality starters each draft, and get a whole team's worth every five-six years.

This is where I have issues with BB's present philosophy of stocking up on second round value picks. Between last year and this year, we will have had 7 second round picks and 1 first round pick.

Now by definition only so many picks per year can be expected to contribute to a playoff team's roster, so not do a JETS once in a while and trade up high into the first round when a player is there that adds tremendous value to your club, without a lot of projecting.

This year that player is Suh for the RDE spot. BB has the ammo to go up and get an impact player at a need position.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Oh, one other point, to borrow from DW's posts.

Here is a list of all the 2007 second-round draftees who started 10 games this year (played/started):

Gerald Alexander (15/10)
Justin Blalock (16/16)
Justin Durant (13/13)
David Harris (16/16)
Chris Houston (12/10)
Ryan Kalil (16/16)
Zach Miller (15/15)
Sabby Piscitelli (16/15)
Paul Posluszny (12/12)
Sidney Rice (16/14)
Samson Satele (15/12)
Steve Smith (16/15)
Eric Weddle (13/13)
Josh Wilson (12/12)

Just 16/32.

Forgot Woodley

 

[DW Toys]

Forgot Woodley

Started versus high profile starter is the fine line here. If you have no one else to plug in might as well start a rookie or a first or second year man. I get it.
I will give you 50%,
I see about 5 or 6 top shelf players. Unfortunately the rest are to use a term.... serviceable until someone just a shade better shows up.
Good point though.
DW Toys