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Fellow mods: Please do not merge with other TBC this is different than the "he's worth the contract/ no he isnt" thread
Pro Football Focus has great stats that show plays played as well as what the player did (ie defend run, defend pass, rush the QB) and includes #s on sacks, QB hits, QB pressures (I take these with a grain of salt because they are unofficial, and seem to vary widely from team to team even when their pass rushes seem similar, very arbitrary it seems) However they seem a good source to contribute to a discussion of how well TBC played last year.
TBC rushed the QB 355 times last season. He had 10 sacks 10 QB hits, 23 pressures and 2 blocked passes. I think the last 3 categories can be added together as they are similar but sacks are different. So TBC is 355/10/35 That is one sack about every 35 rushes and one other effective rush ever roughly 10.
Here are numbers on other selected pass rushers.
Peppers 446/10/44.....Interestingly he had the same # of sacks in 91 more pass rushes, and his other effective rush ratio is identical
Jason Taylor 341/8/27 similar snaps 2 fewer sacks and 8 fewer effective rushes
Joey Porter 354/9/16 same opportunities 1 less sack and less than half the effective rushes
(Note these 2 tend to counteract the idea that TBC nly had numbers because anyone could get them vs the Bills)
Dwight Freeney 469/15/61 Sack every 31 vs every 35 (works out to 2 more sacks on equal chances) and effective rush every 8 vs every 10, works out to about one more per game (based in equal rushes)
Personally I think the advantage of one gap with no run worries should make the gap wider.
Merriman 300/4/18 Not even close to TBCs production
Jared Allen 631/16/60 Interestingly while the overall numbers are much higher the ratio is one sack every 39 (worse than TBC) and one other good rush every 10.5 (worse than TBC)
Of course statistics can be twisted in many ways. TBCs #s would look better if he were out on the field actually rushing the passer more often, but by the same token ar elimited by the 2 gap D on 1st and 2nd down.
Looking at all of the OLB/DEs it looks as if TBC, playing every down, would have gotten about 100-110 more pass rush attempts. Thats about 30% more. So te question is, if TBC is now entrenched as a started who will play full time, year long and be the #1 pass rusher can he keep the ratios where they were in 2009, which would result in:
460 or so pass rush attempts
13 sacks
13 QB hits
30 QB pressures
2-3 Blocked passes and total numbers of
460/13/45 which are better than what Peppers did last year to earn himself 13 mill a season
FYI, Peppers 2008 and 2007 #s were:
2008 551/14/61 (sack every 40 eff rush every 9+) about same as TBC per rush
2007 326/2/18 /AWFUL
So 2009 seems to be very indicative of what he is being paid for
Pro Football Focus has great stats that show plays played as well as what the player did (ie defend run, defend pass, rush the QB) and includes #s on sacks, QB hits, QB pressures (I take these with a grain of salt because they are unofficial, and seem to vary widely from team to team even when their pass rushes seem similar, very arbitrary it seems) However they seem a good source to contribute to a discussion of how well TBC played last year.
TBC rushed the QB 355 times last season. He had 10 sacks 10 QB hits, 23 pressures and 2 blocked passes. I think the last 3 categories can be added together as they are similar but sacks are different. So TBC is 355/10/35 That is one sack about every 35 rushes and one other effective rush ever roughly 10.
Here are numbers on other selected pass rushers.
Peppers 446/10/44.....Interestingly he had the same # of sacks in 91 more pass rushes, and his other effective rush ratio is identical
Jason Taylor 341/8/27 similar snaps 2 fewer sacks and 8 fewer effective rushes
Joey Porter 354/9/16 same opportunities 1 less sack and less than half the effective rushes
(Note these 2 tend to counteract the idea that TBC nly had numbers because anyone could get them vs the Bills)
Dwight Freeney 469/15/61 Sack every 31 vs every 35 (works out to 2 more sacks on equal chances) and effective rush every 8 vs every 10, works out to about one more per game (based in equal rushes)
Personally I think the advantage of one gap with no run worries should make the gap wider.
Merriman 300/4/18 Not even close to TBCs production
Jared Allen 631/16/60 Interestingly while the overall numbers are much higher the ratio is one sack every 39 (worse than TBC) and one other good rush every 10.5 (worse than TBC)
Of course statistics can be twisted in many ways. TBCs #s would look better if he were out on the field actually rushing the passer more often, but by the same token ar elimited by the 2 gap D on 1st and 2nd down.
Looking at all of the OLB/DEs it looks as if TBC, playing every down, would have gotten about 100-110 more pass rush attempts. Thats about 30% more. So te question is, if TBC is now entrenched as a started who will play full time, year long and be the #1 pass rusher can he keep the ratios where they were in 2009, which would result in:
460 or so pass rush attempts
13 sacks
13 QB hits
30 QB pressures
2-3 Blocked passes and total numbers of
460/13/45 which are better than what Peppers did last year to earn himself 13 mill a season
FYI, Peppers 2008 and 2007 #s were:
2008 551/14/61 (sack every 40 eff rush every 9+) about same as TBC per rush
2007 326/2/18 /AWFUL
So 2009 seems to be very indicative of what he is being paid for