The Uncle Heatster Pre-Combine Patriots Draft

[dryheat44]

Preconditions: I haven't made any trades for players, although Adam Carriker and Quentin Groves interest me, and probably could be had relatively cheaply. But I don't pretend to know the trade market right now, so I'd hesitate to guess how cheaply. I would also bring in Larry Foote, but that really isn't germaine to the draft. The only FA of significance I have leaving is Ben Watson. I'm not planning on Adalius being here either. I haven't traded any Patriots players for draft picks, but that could well happen.

I've also used WalterFootball's mock draft as a guide as to who would be available through the early second round. Primarily because it was updated yesterday. I'm planning on 3 comp picks, all in the seventh round. OK, shall we?

First 13 off the board are Clausen, Suh, McCoy, Bradford, Okung, Berry, Haden, Campbell, Davis, Pierre-Paul, Bryant, McClain, and Spiller.

As I see one name missing, and Seattle with an extra pick in the first, I'm offering #22 and one of the second round picks, let's say the middle one, for #14. Seattle, already having drafted Berry @ #6, needs a QB, but this is too early for the likes of McCoy or Crompton. They can trade back, get their QB, and also their much-needed OL help. The Patriots, on the other hand, get Derrick Morgan OLB Georgia Tech. My draft board is already blown up, but finally Belichick gets his hands on the next Willie McGinest, Disrupter of Offenses Extraordinaire. Draft board, schmaft board.

Off the board until we pick again go Bulaga, Price, T Williams, D Williams, Graham, E Thomas, Mays, Gresham, Brown, Dunlop, LaFell, Weatherspoon, Iupati, Odrick, Kindle, Warren, Pouncey, Griffin, G Tate, K Wilson, Benn, Cody, Veldheer, N Allen, P Robinson, Best, C Thomas, McCourty, and Hughes.

Patriot selections follow:

2A Aaron Hernandez TE Florida I don't buy the theory that a receiving TE is a waste because BB doesn't use them in the offense. If he had Dallas Clark, believe me he'd use him. Hernandez is a nice weapon from the Ted or the Z.

2C Traded down for a later 2nd/early third and another third/early fourth

2/3 AJ Edds ILB Iowa Athletically limited, but highly productive. Good size/quickness to play ILB for us. So long, Eric Alexander...it's been......real?

3/4 Taylor Price WR Ohio Don't sleep on this kid...small school pedigree, but he's a Top 8 WR in this draft.

4 Vince Oghobaase DE Duke I watched several games in 2008 where Oghobaase dominated some pretty good ACC linemen. He seemed to regress a bit this year, but he's an intelligent player with ideal size for the 5.

6 Dmitri Nance RB Arizona St Follows former running back greats Leonard Russell and JR Redmond from Tempe to Foxborough....which is rather like dating Megan Fox, breaking up, and then shacking up with the girl from the Globo Gym dodgeball team. He's a bruiser though, and has starter upside.

7th Round - Package the two tradeable ones to move up earlier in the 7th or even late 6th. With the four picks I've got Matt Dodge P East Carolina, Bill Stull QB Pittsburgh, Scott Long WR Louisville, and Austin Steichan C/G Northern Iowa

So there. Questions, Comments, Concerns?

 

[Metaphors]

As I see one name missing, and Seattle with an extra pick in the first, I'm offering #22 and one of the second round picks, let's say the middle one, for #14. Seattle, already having drafted Berry @ #6, needs a QB, but this is too early for the likes of McCoy or Crompton. They can trade back, get their QB, and also their much-needed OL help. The Patriots, on the other hand, get Derrick Morgan OLB Georgia Tech. My draft board is already blown up, but finally Belichick gets his hands on the next Willie McGinest, Disrupter of Offenses Extraordinaire. Draft board, schmaft board.

I could comment on your other picks but getting Morgan would make my day. I'm not a trade-up enthusiast but he would be worth it. Perfect match of need, scheme and value.

 

[everlong]

So there. Questions, Comments, Concerns?

Do you think it would cost #22 + #57 for #14?

You pointed out in another thread that Detroit turned down 3 for 20 and 33.

 

[stevedogc]

Ive been surprised that Morgan's name has not been brought up to much yet. There has been alot of talk about trading up to the early teen's to get McClain, but Morgan seems to be in more of a need position then McClain. My question is can Morgan play the elephant/OLB position, ala McGinnest? Can he cover?

 

[dryheat44]

Do you think it would cost #22 + #57 for #14?

You pointed out in another thread that Detroit turned down 3 for 20 and 33.

In that scenario, Detroit had the 20 & 33. KC wanted to trade down. Many teams probably would have accepted that deal. I have no idea what the actual cost would be in my hypothetical, although in my mock I had us giving #47/48, not #57, which we don't actually have (#53 is the other). Everything runs case by case. I believe Seattle comes out slightly ahead in the outdated trade chart, and it makes sense that they might want to trade down to get more high picks to help them turn that team around.

 

[everlong]

In that scenario, Detroit had the 20 & 33. KC wanted to trade down. Many teams probably would have accepted that deal.

That's just one example and I actually don't think many team would accept that deal with all the rumors of the top 4 in this year's draft trying to trade down. Then I look at the Baltimore-Jax trade a few years ago where Jax went up to 9 from 26 I believe and gave up a couple of thirds or a third and a fourth I forget the details.

Point is lacking a 3rd perhaps if they want to move up they could do something like our first and one of the seconds for their first and third. I could be wrong but I bet with the current value it would be closer.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

There's been some talk that Morgan isn't a good fit at 3-4 OLB and is strictly a 4-3 DE due to his hips. It will be something to watch for at the combine for sure.

 

[dryheat44]

There's been some talk that Morgan isn't a good fit at 3-4 OLB and is strictly a 4-3 DE due to his hips. It will be something to watch for at the combine for sure.

He can set the edge and he can run the passer. He seems to have the short-area quickness to cover the flat zones. Can he drop back effectively? I don't care at this point in light of what he can do. If he's terrible moving backwards, BB will find a way to use him while not exposing him.

 

[chevss454]

He can set the edge and he can run the passer. He seems to have the short-area quickness to cover the flat zones. Can he drop back effectively? I don't care at this point in light of what he can do. If he's terrible moving backwards, BB will find a way to use him while not exposing him.

I'm on board with your pick here, although I would be just as happy with Odrick at 22 and save the 2 2nd round picks.

New Era Scouting Blog Archive Derrick Morgan Scouting Report

"Final Word: Morgan is by far the most versatile defensive end in this draft class, but the talent is right there to match it. He has the ideal frame, measurables, technique, and attitude for life in the trenches. The thing that needs to be looked in to the most however is the issue he has with balance. He spends way too much time on the ground, as he gets too reckless and loses his sense of footwork. He also struggled against some of his toughest competition while beating up on lineman that just might have a shot at the NFL. With that said, it is rare to come by such a talented prospect that understands the importance of technique and work ethic. If he is put in to a system that allows him to move around and exploit matchup problems, Morgan can turn in to an All-Pro very soon."

 

[chevss454]

Patriot selections follow:

2A Aaron Hernandez TE Florida I don't buy the theory that a receiving TE is a waste because BB doesn't use them in the offense. If he had Dallas Clark, believe me he'd use him. Hernandez is a nice weapon from the Ted or the Z.

2C Traded down for a later 2nd/early third and another third/early fourth

2/3 AJ Edds ILB Iowa Athletically limited, but highly productive. Good size/quickness to play ILB for us. So long, Eric Alexander...it's been......real?

3/4 Taylor Price WR Ohio Don't sleep on this kid...small school pedigree, but he's a Top 8 WR in this draft.

So there. Questions, Comments, Concerns?

(22) J. Odrick
2A Walter football picked Damian Williams here. You picked A. Hernandez, who compares to Dallas Clark as TE/WR hybrid. Too bad Benn is gone.
I pick D. Williams
2B Sapp or Misi
2C Aaron Hernandez

Really like the Taylor Price pick!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

2/3 AJ Edds ILB Iowa Athletically limited, but highly productive. Good size/quickness to play ILB for us. So long, Eric Alexander...it's been......real?

You use an apparent third rounder to replace a UDFA? :ugh:

 

[dryheat44]

You use an apparent third rounder to replace a UDFA? :ugh:

If a UDFA spends six years on the roster, is it still useful to consider him a UDFA? If, in a couple of years, I mock a 2nd round QB to replace Brady, are you gonna bust my stones for using a 2nd round pick to replace a 6th round pick? Should we not try to upgrade Guyton with a draft pick, or just consider UDFAs?

Very curious comment. Alexander's roster spot is as a ST ace and backup linebacker. I don't see the relevance of how he came into the League.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

He can set the edge and he can run the passer. He seems to have the short-area quickness to cover the flat zones. Can he drop back effectively? I don't care at this point in light of what he can do. If he's terrible moving backwards, BB will find a way to use him while not exposing him.

I wasn't disagreeing/agreeing with you, just stating things that I've read/heard from some draftniks. I'm on board with you actually, Uncle Heatster (I love that name by the way ), just like I was last year with Heyward Bey being a good pickup at WR. It's too bad he's trapped in Oakland b/c I thought with some good coaching he had great upside. Anyways, back to the topic.

I compare it to this: Shawne Merriman isn't great at dropping into coverage, and with his pass rushing skills, why would you want to drop him into coverage? I would definitely be interested in Morgan as he is an elite pass rusher and very good against the run. I remember earlier in the season having a discussion with MayoClinic (where has he been? miss his great input) about how he thought Morgan was comparable to Merriman coming out. As I watched Morgan play, I saw what he was saying. Merriman was a great pass rusher who seldom dropped into coverage and was considered raw in that area. But I've always thought, with a guy that can rush the passer like that, why would you want him dropping into coverage consistently? If Derrick Morgan can have a Merriman-like impact on our defense, please draft the man ASAP.

I just don't think there's been much talk about him b/c of his supposed "tight hips" that only make him a 4-3 DE according to some experts, as well as the thought that he is most likely going top 10 and we don't pick until 22. I do like Morgan, but my favorite OLB prospect is still Hardy.

Something to note: BB drafted Darryl Richard from GT last year, so he is familiar with and liked a GT DL prospect. I'd have to assume he'd be interested in Morgan as well. Unfortunately, he might be out of our reach.

 

[captain stone]

As I see one name missing, and Seattle with an extra pick in the first, I'm offering #22 and one of the second round picks, let's say the middle one, for #14. Seattle, already having drafted Berry @ #6, needs a QB, but this is too early for the likes of McCoy or Crompton. They can trade back, get their QB, and also their much-needed OL help. The Patriots, on the other hand, get Derrick Morgan OLB Georgia Tech. My draft board is already blown up, but finally Belichick gets his hands on the next Willie McGinest, Disrupter of Offenses Extraordinaire. Draft board, schmaft board.
I'm not a real big fan of moving up, because in this case it would cost a 2nd-rounder who could help us at another position. Besides, I still question Morgan's ability to function well enough in space to play the 3-4 OLB; I see him more as a 4-3 DE.

Off the board until we pick again go Bulaga, Price, T Williams, D Williams, Graham, E Thomas, Mays, Gresham, Brown, Dunlop, LaFell, Weatherspoon, Iupati, Odrick, Kindle, Warren, Pouncey, Griffin, G Tate, K Wilson, Benn, Cody, Veldheer, N Allen, P Robinson, Best, C Thomas, McCourty, and Hughes.
Damn, that's a lot of talent gone. Oh well, we can't draft them all.

Patriot selections follow:

2A Aaron Hernandez TE Florida I don't buy the theory that a receiving TE is a waste because BB doesn't use them in the offense. If he had Dallas Clark, believe me he'd use him. Hernandez is a nice weapon from the Ted or the Z.
I'd rather see Watson kept for continuity's sake. Brady's not getting any younger, so let him keep the weapons he already has, unless we want him to have both Watson & Hernandez. But with those 2 + Chris Baker, that's a lot of resources allocated to one position.

2C Traded down for a later 2nd/early third and another third/early fourth

2/3 AJ Edds ILB Iowa Athletically limited, but highly productive. Good size/quickness to play ILB for us. So long, Eric Alexander...it's been......real?
Might be too early for him; I'd start looking at him with your late 3rd/early 4th. Besides, will he be strong enough to stack/shed/tackle at SILB? I do love the idea of saying g'bye to Effin Alexander - finally.

3/4 Taylor Price WR Ohio Don't sleep on this kid...small school pedigree, but he's a Top 8 WR in this draft.
He's a riser who's recently received some love from TFYDraftInsider, too. Could he be the next Greg Jennings? The more I think of it, the more I feel it might be nec. to use your L2/E3 on him, and wait for Edds later.

4 Vince Oghobaase DE Duke I watched several games in 2008 where Oghobaase dominated some pretty good ACC linemen. He seemed to regress a bit this year, but he's an intelligent player with ideal size for the 5.
Too early; but what if George Selvie, Greg Hardy or Mike Neal are still hanging around?

6 Dmitri Nance RB Arizona St Follows former running back greats Leonard Russell and JR Redmond from Tempe to Foxborough....which is rather like dating Megan Fox, breaking up, and then shacking up with the girl from the Globo Gym dodgeball team. He's a bruiser though, and has starter upside.
I think he could be avail. as a UDFA; instead, how about UConn WR Marcus Easley as poss. our Big WR of the future? If he impresses during the pass-catching drills, however, he might be gone already.

7th Round - Package the two tradeable ones to move up earlier in the 7th or even late 6th. With the four picks I've got Matt Dodge P East Carolina, Bill Stull QB Pittsburgh, Scott Long WR Louisville, and Austin Steichan C/G Northern Iowa

- I can deal with using a 7th on a P like Dodge, or Bowden or Malone.
- Not as sold on using one on a QB, though; we already have Hoyer as our developmental guy.
- Another WR? Why not; it's not like we don't need them.
- I'd rather see our Center needs addressed earlier, but nobody else thrills me after Pouncey. Maybe Eric Olsen's still on the board here; if so, then he's my choice instead.

So there. Questions, Comments, Concerns?

Good read. Let's revisit this after the Combine; I'll want to know what you think afterwards.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Very curious comment. Alexander's roster spot is as a ST ace and backup linebacker. I don't see the relevance of how he came into the League.

The "relevance" is the role Alexander plays is much less than the team should expect from a third round draft pick. Tom Brady plays a crucial role on the team, it happens to be a starting role, but the same can be said for Kevin Faulk who rarely starts.

You just drafted a LB as an apparent upgrade for a guy who gets about 10-12 snaps/game. Regardless of the relative merits of Edds over Alexander as LBs, the simple truth is Edds appears to be drafted only because you want to dump Alexander and like Edds - as drafting tactics go, it's not too dissimilar to throwing a $20 gold piece into the wishing well in lieu of a penny.

I'm sure if you put your mind to it you could find any number of 6th and 7th round to UDFA projections who offer greater potential than Alexander - leaving that third for addressing an actual position of need...unless you truly believe NE's greatest need by that point in the draft is a Special Teams Ace?

 

[dryheat44]

The "relevance" is the role Alexander plays is much less than the team should expect from a third round draft pick. Tom Brady plays a crucial role on the team, it happens to be a starting role, but the same can be said for Kevin Faulk who rarely starts.

Actually, I was just picking a body to knock off the roster. I could as easily have said Bret Lockett or Kyle Arrington.

You just drafted a LB as an apparent upgrade for a guy who gets about 10-12 snaps/game. Regardless of the relative merits of Edds over Alexander as LBs, the simple truth is Edds appears to be drafted only because you want to dump Alexander and like Edds - as drafting tactics go, it's not too dissimilar to throwing a $20 gold piece into the wishing well in lieu of a penny.

Bad assumption. I have no problem with Alexander besides him being one of the bottom 10 guys on the roster...guys we should strive to replace every year. I'm not making a draft pick specifically to replace him. Maybe I should have left out that throwaway line. Frankly, I think Edds is better than Guyton. And if not, we really should have a 3rd ILB on the roster. Who was it last year, Adalius? Are you comfortable with Alexander as linebacker if Mayo should get hurt again? I also think Edds could play OLB in certain situations.

I'm sure if you put your mind to it you could find any number of 6th and 7th round to UDFA projections who offer greater potential than Alexander - leaving that third for addressing an actual position of need...unless you truly believe NE's greatest need by that point in the draft is a Special Teams Ace?

I'm really, really, struggling with your line of thought here -- which might be a first. Is ILB not a need? Why are so many people talking about McClain and Spikes? If you perceive it's not a need, I think you're in the minority.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'm really, really, struggling with your line of thought here -- which might be a first. Is ILB not a need? Why are so many people talking about McClain and Spikes? If you perceive it's not a need, I think you're in the minority.

I'm in the minority.

 

[Since1971]

Preconditions: I haven't made any trades for players, although Adam Carriker and Quentin Groves interest me, and probably could be had relatively cheaply. But I don't pretend to know the trade market right now, so I'd hesitate to guess how cheaply. I would also bring in Larry Foote, but that really isn't germaine to the draft. The only FA of significance I have leaving is Ben Watson. I'm not planning on Adalius being here either. I haven't traded any Patriots players for draft picks, but that could well happen.

I've also used WalterFootball's mock draft as a guide as to who would be available through the early second round. Primarily because it was updated yesterday. I'm planning on 3 comp picks, all in the seventh round. OK, shall we?

First 13 off the board are Clausen, Suh, McCoy, Bradford, Okung, Berry, Haden, Campbell, Davis, Pierre-Paul, Bryant, McClain, and Spiller.

As I see one name missing, and Seattle with an extra pick in the first, I'm offering #22 and one of the second round picks, let's say the middle one, for #14. Seattle, already having drafted Berry @ #6, needs a QB, but this is too early for the likes of McCoy or Crompton. They can trade back, get their QB, and also their much-needed OL help. The Patriots, on the other hand, get Derrick Morgan OLB Georgia Tech. My draft board is already blown up, but finally Belichick gets his hands on the next Willie McGinest, Disrupter of Offenses Extraordinaire. Draft board, schmaft board.

Off the board until we pick again go Bulaga, Price, T Williams, D Williams, Graham, E Thomas, Mays, Gresham, Brown, Dunlop, LaFell, Weatherspoon, Iupati, Odrick, Kindle, Warren, Pouncey, Griffin, G Tate, K Wilson, Benn, Cody, Veldheer, N Allen, P Robinson, Best, C Thomas, McCourty, and Hughes.

Patriot selections follow:

2A Aaron Hernandez TE Florida I don't buy the theory that a receiving TE is a waste because BB doesn't use them in the offense. If he had Dallas Clark, believe me he'd use him. Hernandez is a nice weapon from the Ted or the Z.

2C Traded down for a later 2nd/early third and another third/early fourth

2/3 AJ Edds ILB Iowa Athletically limited, but highly productive. Good size/quickness to play ILB for us. So long, Eric Alexander...it's been......real?

3/4 Taylor Price WR Ohio Don't sleep on this kid...small school pedigree, but he's a Top 8 WR in this draft.

4 Vince Oghobaase DE Duke I watched several games in 2008 where Oghobaase dominated some pretty good ACC linemen. He seemed to regress a bit this year, but he's an intelligent player with ideal size for the 5.

6 Dmitri Nance RB Arizona St Follows former running back greats Leonard Russell and JR Redmond from Tempe to Foxborough....which is rather like dating Megan Fox, breaking up, and then shacking up with the girl from the Globo Gym dodgeball team. He's a bruiser though, and has starter upside.

7th Round - Package the two tradeable ones to move up earlier in the 7th or even late 6th. With the four picks I've got Matt Dodge P East Carolina, Bill Stull QB Pittsburgh, Scott Long WR Louisville, and Austin Steichan C/G Northern Iowa

So there. Questions, Comments, Concerns?

Not bad. Morgan is McGinest like, good comparison. I like Hernandez. Not bad.

 

[dryheat44]

I'm in the minority.

Well, that would explain the difference in opinion. I'm not satisfied with a trio of Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie - who may or may not be ready when the season starts. I think they could sign Larry Foote, but I doubt he'd be more than a one-year stopgap.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Well, that would explain the difference in opinion. I'm not satisfied with a trio of Mayo, Guyton, and McKenzie - who may or may not be ready when the season starts. I think they could sign Larry Foote, but I doubt he'd be more than a one-year stopgap.

Guyton made a nice jump last season, I hope a healthy Mayo shows me something similar this year, and I'm expecting to see further progress from Guyton. McKenzie isn't much different from his situation last season. Alexander showed me the best technique I've seen from him last year.

A Foote-like veteran wouldn't be bad at the right price. Nut's buddy Fujita might be a more expensive prospect and I'm not sure NE wants to pay his price. I'd be interested in Chris Gocong if BB can work out a reasonable trade with Andy Reid - Chris could work inside or out.

For now I'm not overly worried about the kids getting the job done or backsliding and I'm not too anxious for a veteran or a top draft pick at ILB.