Do you still want him?
It wouldn't surprise me if the Pats sign him (even though I think he's a little overrated), Wilfork and Peppers. If the Pats want to win now, this is their best chance.
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And it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't sign any of them either.
First off there's the Brady situation. Brady has never reached the last year of his contract while here, and has to be a major priority right now--especially after proving he can come back from such a serious injury. It may even be possible that he could represent a form of "damage control" with the media and fans with an extension if Wilfork isn't signed (which is a serious possibility if his demands are true). There may be somewhat of a poor reaction to the Krafts/Pats business practices (aka 'signing their own'), and more and more ex-players are putting them in a negative light every day--ex: Seymour, Samuel, McGinest, etc. By extending Brady they may feel they are proving their loyalty to the fans/media, and killing 2 birds with 1 stone, since they were going to extend him anyway, and look even better by doing so this offseason.
As far as your 3 players go, let's start with Wilfork. He is a 2 down player who is demanding top dollar. I don't see him passing up a chance at free agency unless the Pats agree to meet his high demands in some fashion, so I don't think it's any better than 50/50 that he stays. As of now it seems as though he wants at least 30+ million guaranteed, since it's widely reported that he turned down 23 guaranteed.
Dansby is in the same position, wanting 30+ guaranteed, and actually may even benefit by being one of the few top FA's in a poor FA year, due to the uncapped 2010. Most likely there will be a team or two like Washington, who is willing to overspend and take risks in the murky CBA situation. It could be that as a whole spending will go down (a given), but that a few select top-tier FA's will wait and see if someone makes them lucky by overspending.
Peppers isn't even a guarantee that he'd fit here, and we have many of our own FA's to worry about first, + the Brady situation. I don't see the relatively conservative front office making too big of a wave by going out and giving someone top dollar before dealing properly with our own FA's first. Even putting the Wilfork situation aside for the moment, we still have important players such as Faulk, Bodden, TBC, etc who would make an otherwise OK position situation (3rd down back, CB, DE/LB) shaky with their departure. Not to mention the fact that Peppers has made almost 30+ million guaranteed in the last 2 years via franchise tag, and will certainly be looking for big money. It's possible that Peppers can get a contract this year that pays him 25-30 million guaranteed, making him a player who has received 55-60 million guaranteed in 3 years (!!!) Can you think of any other player who's made that kind of guaranteed money in 3 years?
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I agree that the Pats 'could' take advantage of an un-capped year with some major signings, but then again, who couldn't? I'm not entitrely certain that you are fully appreciating the fact that spending as a whole, will be down. With the uncertain CBA situation, a team who has made their bread and butter by playing within the confines of a capped system is not going to take too many risks when there may be a decreased cap next year. There is also the high possibility of a work stoppage, which leads directly to majorly decreased revenue. Any smart businessman would certainly be preparing for such a move, since they are trying to get their future piece of the pie taken care of by doing so.
J.Kraft has pretty much said he's not going to take too many risks, so unless that's a ploy I don't see more than 1 major FA signing, and that's not including Wilfork, who I group in the 'one of our own' category.
IMO, I think they'll spend up to where the cap was this year, approx. 125 million (127 actual). This would still give them approx. 30-35 million to take care of (depending on the Adalius Thomas situation). Considering we have major contracts in Wilfork, Brady, and possibly Bodden/Faulk/TBC, I see them making some smaller-type moves, although important like last year. I still see them making a play at a major FA player such as Peppers, Dansby, etc--but certainly not more than one, at least IMO.
