I HOPE for three 2010 Contributers

[mgteich]

We have four top picks, a fourth rounder and some 6th and 7th rounders. I HOPE we secure three players to have the 2009 impact of Butler, Vollmer and Edelman.

I would note that these three (and the rest) did not have huge impact on 2010, but the draft was a solid one and should have a solid effect in coming years.
=============================================

If we want more immediate impact, then I would suggest that we need to be lucky. We could trade up and increase our chances at 2 impact players, but then three impact players would then be less likely.
=========================

IF THE GOAL IS THREE SOLID 2010 CONTRIBUTERS
Then I agree with others that trading two second to end up with 19, 22 and say 48 would give us the best shot. A guard or wideout at 48 should be able to contribute in 2010.

 

[mayoclinic]

We have four top picks, a fourth rounder and some 6th and 7th rounders. I HOPE we secure three players to have the 2009 impact of Butler, Vollmer and Edelman.

I would note that these three (and the rest) did not have huge impact on 2010, but the draft was a solid one and should have a solid effect in coming years.
=============================================

If we want more immediate impact, then I would suggest that we need to be lucky. We could trade up and increase our chances at 2 impact players, but then three impact players would then be less likely.
=========================

IF THE GOAL IS THREE SOLID 2010 CONTRIBUTERS
Then I agree with others that trading two second to end up with 19, 22 and say 48 would give us the best shot. A guard or wideout at 48 should be able to contribute in 2010.

That would be great. I'm ever the optimist, and am hoping for 4. Ideally, 2 impact players and 2 red chip players:

- Trade 42, 47 and 118 for 19 and 83. Get 2 playmakers/impact players at 19 and 22. My choices are CJ Spiller and Carlos Dunlap, but other names might possibly include Brandon Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul, Everson Griffen, Dan Williams, Terrance Cody, or Brian Bulaga.

- Get a red chip prospect at 53 and hopefully trade up a bit from 83 to get another in the early 3rd round. Guys like Austen Lane, AJ Edds, Eric Norwood, Alex Carrington, Vladimir Ducasse, Mike Johnson and Dexter McCluster come to mind. Possibly a TE, WR or CB, though I personally prefer to focus on other positions. These guys aren't quite at the playmaker/impact player level, but they should have plenty of ability to be solid contributors. Also, some highly ranked guys will slip a bit because of the depth of talent. Heck, we got our best player (and one of the best players in the draft) at 58 last year, and this year is much deeper. Then pick up some late round sleepers.

 

[chevss454]

That would be great. I'm ever the optimist, and am hoping for 4. Ideally, 2 impact players and 2 red chip players:

- Trade 42, 47 and 118 for 19 and 83. Get 2 playmakers/impact players at 19 and 22. My choices are CJ Spiller and Carlos Dunlap, but other names might possibly include Brandon Graham, Jason Pierre-Paul, Everson Griffen, Dan Williams, Terrance Cody, or Brian Bulaga.

- Get a red chip prospect at 53 and hopefully trade up a bit from 83 to get another in the early 3rd round. Guys like Austen Lane, AJ Edds, Eric Norwood, Alex Carrington, Vladimir Ducasse, Mike Johnson and Dexter McCluster come to mind. Possibly a TE, WR or CB, though I personally prefer to focus on other positions. These guys aren't quite at the playmaker/impact player level, but they should have plenty of ability to be solid contributors. Also, some highly ranked guys will slip a bit because of the depth of talent. Heck, we got our best player (and one of the best players in the draft) at 58 last year, and this year is much deeper. Then pick up some late round sleepers.

Mayo, I read your ideas and get really excited about the possibilities you throw out there, especially this one. This could work tremendously well for the Pats allowing that FA's can fill other holes. (Then I read in some lame mock the Pats take Tebow with 22.)

Can you offer some hope that BB would actually do something like what you propose here?

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, I read your ideas and get really excited about the possibilities you throw out there, especially this one. This could work tremendously well for the Pats allowing that FA's can fill other holes. Can you offer some hope that BB would actually do something like what you propose here?

Unfortunately not. Who knows what BB will actually do. I think the move makes sense, particularly picking up 3rd round picks given the depth that is in this draft. It should work for Atlanta too, as they have no 2nd round pick and their biggest need is CB, where Joe Haden will probably be long gone and no one else seems worthy of the #19 pick. But other things could happen.

 

[chevss454]

Unfortunately not. Who knows what BB will actually do. I think the move makes sense, particularly picking up 3rd round picks given the depth that is in this draft. It should work for Atlanta too, as they have no 2nd round pick and their biggest need is CB, where Joe Haden will probably be long gone and no one else seems worthy of the #19 pick. But other things could happen.

Thanks for the answer, Mayo, even if it's not what I hoped for.
:nosmile:

 

[Seneschal2]

Zoltan will grant you your wish.

Hoping for 3 contributors is not too much to ask for ANY draft. It's not like you want 3 impact players (although one would help).

Currently, the Pats have 4 early picks (top 53). If they keep them all, the 4 rookies will all earn roster spots and contribute in various degrees. And the rest of the draft may harvest a gem or two.

One overriding point I know I'll mention post-draft is this, the health of these rookies from TC -- throughout. If you look back at past draftees you'll find several who were nicked up, or seriously injured, therefore failing to contribute in a way you're hoping for. So let's hope for some good luck this season...allowing these rooks an opportunity to make a difference.

 

[mgteich]

3-4 contributers are still possible without trading up if you really believe in the strength of the 2nd round. We would have four opportunities plus a developmental fourth. That's
five picks. I could see us trading a second a 4th for a lower 2nd and a 3rd or our 1st and fourth for a lower first and a 3rd.

Folks want Cody/Williams and say Dunlop. I think the key is Wilfork. If he isn't staying, then we'll get a first and use it for Cody or Williams. Alternatively, if Wilfork is signed long term by the time of the draft, we have better draft strategies than using two picks to move up for Cody or Williams at 19.

For me, it seems extremely likely that 22 (or a slight move down) will be used for a lineman or even a TE. That would still give us three seconds and a fourth for other needs.

If you are a true believer in this draft, I'm sure that you think that we can
1) get 3 contributers out of 22, 42, 48 and 53 (plus using 118 to trade up)
2) get one contributer from last year's non-contributers and marginal contributers (Pryor, Crable, Wheatley, McKenzie, Tate, Brace, Ohrnberger)
3) get one marginal contributer from the 2010 6th and 7th round picks
===============================================

That gives us FOUR added solid 2010 contributers and ONE marginal 2010 contributer.
===============================================

With regard to impact players, this is more likely to come from Butler, Vollmer and Edelman, last year's solid contributers. This is as it should be.
================================================

If we move up, we should be reasonably sure of impact players at critical positions. Otherwise it is not worth two top picks in the hope that we get one impact player. After all, there were a couple of top ten players (perhaps more if we consider the OT's) available last year. In hindsight would we have been better off to move up? Why are we more sure this year? Is even McClain as good as we thought Curry was last year? or last year's top five NT?

Thanks for the answer, Mayo, even if it's not what I hoped for.
:nosmile:

 

[carolinatony]

We should be able to get 1/2 solid contributers in FA before the draft depending on who BB feels can help.

Didn't I read that the last 8 teams in the draft were restricted on how many FA's they could sign but the rest(Pats) could sign as many as they wanted?

 

[ayjackson]

For two contributors at 19/22 I'd look to JPP and Jared Odrick. I agree with WR or OG at 48 for the third.

Based on the Senior Bowl practices, maybe Carrington would be impact at 48, and we could go JPP/Tate or JPP/Spiller in the first. Though I think Spiller will be long gone.

 

[patsfan-1982]

i would not trade up i would take


#22 Jared Odrick DE or Carlos Dunlap, but i think Odrick. would be a better fit for the pats 2 gap system.


#44 Sergio Kindle OLB or Brandon Graham i think Kindle. is the better fit of the two.


#47 Brandon Spikes ILB or Brandon LaFell, WR. but if Spikes. is there u have to take him


#53 Mike Johnson G or Jonathan Dwyer RB

 

[mayoclinic]

i would not trade up i would take


#22 Jared Odrick DE or Carlos Dunlap, but i think Odrick. would be a better fit for the pats 2 gap system.

#44 Sergio Kindle OLB or Brandon Graham i think Kindle. is the better fit of the two.

#47 Brandon Spikes ILB or Brandon LaFell, WR. but if Spikes. is there u have to take him

#53 Mike Johnson G or Jonathan Dwyer RB

Right now I think the 3rd round is the place to be. I see a lot of guys who I like falling there. I would try to get as many 3rd round picks as possible.

Also, I think that O-line may not be as dire a need as once thought. If we move Kaczur to RG and re-sign/tender Mankins, then we have a very solid starting OL of Light-Mankins-Koppen-Kaczur-Vollmer, with LeVoir, Ohrnberger, Bussey, Connelly and Wendell as backups. That's not bad. I could see drafting one OG/RT prospect, but it doesn't have to be a day 1 starter.

With those considerations in mind, I would do the following:

1. Trade 42, 47 and 118 to Atlanta for 19 and 83 if CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Carlos Dunlap is available.

2. With 19 and 22 take 2 of the following players: Carlos Dunlap, CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Brandon Graham. I think Graham could be moved to SILB in a year or so, but could be used at DE in a 4-2-5 scheme or some at 3-4 OLB while he learns the position.

3. Trade 53 (370 points) to one of the teams with two 3rd round choices: Oakland (69 + 85 = 410 points, small differential to be made up), Philadelphia (70 + 87 = 395 pionts) or Cleveland (71 + 91 = 367 pionts).

4. Trade Adalius Thomas and a conditional 2011 pick to Kansas City for #68.

5. With 68, 69/70/71, 83, and 85/87/91 take 4 of the following players:

- RB Dexter McCluster, Mississippi - if Spiller isn't taken in the 1st, hope his size keeps him to the early 3rd round
- OG Mike Johnson, Alabama - could slip to the early 3rd round
- OG/OT Vlad Ducasse, UMass - has looked raw but talented at the Senior Bowl, could slip to the 3rd round and be a stud in a year or so
- OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale - possibly this year's Sebastian Vollmer
- DE/OLB Austen Lane, Murray St. - has looked good at the Senior Bowl but still needs to refine his technique; probably a 3rd round pick
- DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas St. - has excelled at the Senior Bowl, but will probably go 3rd round
- ILB AJ Edds, Iowa. If we don't take Graham in the 1st, I think Edds could eventually bulk up to around 250 and share SILB duties with McKenzie.

Ideally we would come out with McCluster if we don't take Spiller or Edds if we don't take Graham, an OL, Lane and Carrington, in addition to the 2 first round picks listed above.

Then take some late round guys with our 6th, 7th and comp picks:

- P Zoltan Mesko, Michigan
- TE Jim Dray, Stanford
- DE Clifton Geathers, South Carolina

 

[mgteich]

It is always fun to include trades. For example, in the Draftek board, I would definitelly trade down with Tampa giving our 22 for their 2nd and 3rd. We may find that there are many players that Belichick rates almost equally when we draft at 22, making a trade DOWN into the sweet spot in the SECOND and early third found likely.
====================================================

Right now I think the 3rd round is the place to be. I see a lot of guys who I like falling there. I would try to get as many 3rd round picks as possible.

Also, I think that O-line may not be as dire a need as once thought. If we move Kaczur to RG and re-sign/tender Mankins, then we have a very solid starting OL of Light-Mankins-Koppen-Kaczur-Vollmer, with LeVoir, Ohrnberger, Bussey, Connelly and Wendell as backups. That's not bad. I could see drafting one OG/RT prospect, but it doesn't have to be a day 1 starter.

With those considerations in mind, I would do the following:

1. Trade 42, 47 and 118 to Atlanta for 19 and 83 if CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Carlos Dunlap is available.

2. With 19 and 22 take 2 of the following players: Carlos Dunlap, CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Brandon Graham. I think Graham could be moved to SILB in a year or so, but could be used at DE in a 4-2-5 scheme or some at 3-4 OLB while he learns the position.

3. Trade 53 (370 points) to one of the teams with two 3rd round choices: Oakland (69 + 85 = 410 points, small differential to be made up), Philadelphia (70 + 87 = 395 pionts) or Cleveland (71 + 91 = 367 pionts).

4. Trade Adalius Thomas and a conditional 2011 pick to Kansas City for #68.

5. With 68, 69/70/71, 83, and 85/87/91 take 4 of the following players:

- RB Dexter McCluster, Mississippi - if Spiller isn't taken in the 1st, hope his size keeps him to the early 3rd round
- OG Mike Johnson, Alabama - could slip to the early 3rd round
- OG/OT Vlad Ducasse, UMass - has looked raw but talented at the Senior Bowl, could slip to the 3rd round and be a stud in a year or so
- OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale - possibly this year's Sebastian Vollmer
- DE/OLB Austen Lane, Murray St. - has looked good at the Senior Bowl but still needs to refine his technique; probably a 3rd round pick
- DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas St. - has excelled at the Senior Bowl, but will probably go 3rd round
- ILB AJ Edds, Iowa. If we don't take Graham in the 1st, I think Edds could eventually bulk up to around 250 and share SILB duties with McKenzie.

Ideally we would come out with McCluster if we don't take Spiller or Edds if we don't take Graham, an OL, Lane and Carrington, in addition to the 2 first round picks listed above.

Then take some late round guys with our 6th, 7th and comp picks:

- P Zoltan Mesko, Michigan
- TE Jim Dray, Stanford
- DE Clifton Geathers, South Carolina

 

[mayoclinic]

It is always fun to include trades. For example, in the Draftek board, I would definitelly trade down with Tampa giving our 22 for their 2nd and 3rd. We may find that there are many players that Belichick rates almost equally when we draft at 22, making a trade DOWN into the sweet spot in the SECOND and early third found likely.
====================================================

Yes, it's fun to speculate.

But the point I was also trying top make is that I like the mid/late 1st and the early/mid 3rd round of this draft a lot, even more than the 2nd round. It think there will be blue chip prospects available in the 19-22 range, and quality red chippers available at 68-92. Also, a lot of potential 2nd round guys at the Senior Bowl look like 3rd round picks:

- Vlad Ducasse was touted as a potential 1st rounder, and he has the talent, but he's very raw. I could easily see him slipping to the 3rd and needing a year to develop, but becoming a pro bowl RG or RT over time.

- Mike Johnson has been solid at the Senior Bowl but not dominant. He could go late 2nd, but could just as easily go early 3rd.

- Austen Lane has a big time body and talent, but like Ducasse is a bit raw and needs to develop his technique. Someone could reach for him in the 2nd, but he looks like a solid 3rd round pick to me.

- AJ Edds from Iowa is Mr. Dependable, but lacks elite physical ability. He looks like a solid 3rd round pick who could bulk up enough to play SILB.

- Alex Carrington is one of the biggest risers in the Senior bowl, and could be a tremendous 3-4 DE over time. But I suspect that he'll have trouble cracking the 2nd round. Jarron Gilbet was considered a possible 1st rounder last year but lasted to the early 3rd round. Lawrence Sidbury was considered a possible 2nd round pick based on his rise in the Senior Bowl, but lasted to the 4th round. I suspect Carrington will have a hard time going higher than the 3rd round.

- Dexter McCluster looks like the best all-purpose offensive weapon not named CJ Spiller, but his small size (5'8" 165#) will raise durability concerns that may keep him from breaking into the 2nd round.

- Jared Veldheer has Vollmer-like size and athleticism, but coming from Hillsdale Michigan and not playing in the Senior Bowl may make it hard for him to break into the 2nd round.

All of these guys are really solid prospects. This kind of draft could have the potential of the 1986 San Francisco draft, where they could 6 eventual starters. All of these guys need some time to develop, which is what will keep them in the 3rd round. Get 2 impact players in the 1st round and a couple of guys in FA (especially a WR) and we won't need more than that in terms of immediate starting caliber players.

 

[chevss454]

Mayo, I always enjoy reading your posts, particularly regarding the offseason moves possible. You do your homework and your posts reflect that. Good work!

Right now I think the 3rd round is the place to be. I see a lot of guys who I like falling there. I would try to get as many 3rd round picks as possible.

Also, I think that O-line may not be as dire a need as once thought. If we move Kaczur to RG and re-sign/tender Mankins, then we have a very solid starting OL of Light-Mankins-Koppen-Kaczur-Vollmer, with LeVoir, Ohrnberger, Bussey, Connelly and Wendell as backups. That's not bad. I could see drafting one OG/RT prospect, but it doesn't have to be a day 1 starter. solid OL

With those considerations in mind, I would do the following:

1. Trade 42, 47 and 118 to Atlanta for 19 and 83 if CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Carlos Dunlap is available.

2. With 19 and 22 take 2 of the following players: Carlos Dunlap, CJ Spiller, Dan Williams or Brandon Graham. I think Graham could be moved to SILB in a year or so, but could be used at DE in a 4-2-5 scheme or some at 3-4 OLB while he learns the position.

This is superlative thinking

3. Trade 53 (370 points) to one of the teams with two 3rd round choices: Oakland (69 + 85 = 410 points, small differential to be made up), Philadelphia (70 + 87 = 395 pionts) or Cleveland (71 + 91 = 367 pionts).

4. Trade Adalius Thomas and a conditional 2011 pick to Kansas City for #68.

If Austen Lane is drafted, why wouldn't you want Adalius to play his best position at OLB opposite Lane?

5. With 68, 69/70/71, 83, and 85/87/91 take 4 of the following players:

- RB Dexter McCluster, Mississippi - if Spiller isn't taken in the 1st, hope his size keeps him to the early 3rd round
- OG Mike Johnson, Alabama - could slip to the early 3rd round
- OG/OT Vlad Ducasse, UMass - has looked raw but talented at the Senior Bowl, could slip to the 3rd round and be a stud in a year or so
- OT Jared Veldheer, Hillsdale - possibly this year's Sebastian Vollmer
- DE/OLB Austen Lane, Murray St. - has looked good at the Senior Bowl but still needs to refine his technique; probably a 3rd round pick
- DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas St. - has excelled at the Senior Bowl, but will probably go 3rd round
- ILB AJ Edds, Iowa. If we don't take Graham in the 1st, I think Edds could eventually bulk up to around 250 and share SILB duties with McKenzie.

Ideally we would come out with McCluster if we don't take Spiller or Edds if we don't take Graham, an OL, Lane and Carrington, in addition to the 2 first round picks listed above.

Then take some late round guys with our 6th, 7th and comp picks:

- P Zoltan Mesko, Michigan Reports are he isn't kicking very well
- TE Jim Dray, Stanford
- DE Clifton Geathers, South Carolina

McCluster's size concerns me. I can see corners easily holding him up at the los (if they can get to him), and his injury potential is there too. But he sure is exciting! There are plenty of alternatives including Jacoby Ford (faster than Spiller, btw), Freddy Barnes, Jordan Shipley and Eric Decker.

I like Mike Johnson a lot. He is a very smart kid with a great work ethic. AND he is a "winner" coming from a winning program. Going up against Mt.Cody in practice has gotten him ready to succeed.

Reports from the Senior Bowl are fairly unanimous in declaring Carrington a kid with surprising ability and strength. Liked him since he went against Bama.

Not sold on Veldheer, though, and Edds may not be an upgrade over what the Pats already have.

 

[mayoclinic]

McCluster's size concerns me. I can see corners easily holding him up at the los (if they can get to him), and his injury potential is there too. But he sure is exciting! There are plenty of alternatives including Jacoby Ford (faster than Spiller, btw), Freddy Barnes, Jordan Shipley and Eric Decker.

Good additions. Shipley and Decker would be reasonable 3rd round WR options if we went that way in the draft. Barnes and Ford should have been included in my list of possible late round targets. Thanks for keeping me honest (many have tried, but few have succeeded).

 

[chevss454]

Good additions. Shipley and Decker would be reasonable 3rd round WR options if we went that way in the draft. Barnes and Ford should have been included in my list of possible late round targets. Thanks for keeping me honest (many have tried, but few have succeeded).

Mayo, you mentioned JPP often a couple of weeks ago but I don't see him on your posts lately. How do you feel about him?

 

[mgteich]

We could get 6 eventual starters out of the 2009 draft!

In the end, I prefer the 2nd to the 3rd, but we'll see as the board plays out on Draft Day Friday. The key will end up being whether we really can get two blue chippers in the first.

You liked Esch's most recent Huddle draft. Even with replacements falling into the spots instead of what was there, Esch certainly ends up with FIVE potential starters, considering that one of our picks in the 4th, 6th or 7th should produce a starter.

The SIXTH that you have as an advantage is simply the pick you got from trading Thomas.

It seems that we could get 6 eventual starters without any draft trades at all, expect for the pick we get for Thomas. As far as two impact players, I think Esch's draft meets that test with Spiller and Graham.

Yes, it's fun to speculate.

All of these guys are really solid prospects. This kind of draft could have the potential of the 1986 San Francisco draft, where they could 6 eventual starters. All of these guys need some time to develop, which is what will keep them in the 3rd round. Get 2 impact players in the 1st round and a couple of guys in FA (especially a WR) and we won't need more than that in terms of immediate starting caliber players.

 

[mayoclinic]

We could get 6 eventual starters out of the 2009 draft!

I see Butler, Chung, Vollmer and Tate being quality starters coming out of the 2009 draft. Ingram is technically a starter, though at LS, which while important isn't quite the same as a major offensive or defensive position. Ohrnberger, McKenzie and Brace could all become starters over time, though I don't think any is clearly targeted that way right now.

In the end, I prefer the 2nd to the 3rd, but we'll see as the board plays out on Draft Day Friday. The key will end up being whether we really can get two blue chippers in the first.

You liked Esch's most recent Huddle draft. Even with replacements falling into the spots instead of what was there, Esch certainly ends up with FIVE potential starters, considering that one of our picks in the 4th, 6th or 7th should produce a starter.

The SIXTH that you have as an advantage is simply the pick you got from trading Thomas.

It seems that we could get 6 eventual starters without any draft trades at all, expect for the pick we get for Thomas. As far as two impact players, I think Esch's draft meets that test with Spiller and Graham.

I like Esch's draft, but I like what we could do trading around much more. In Esch's draft, Dan Williams was available at 35, and I would try to trade up for him if he slipped, for example. #118, for example, could possibly get us from #42 to around #35.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, you mentioned JPP often a couple of weeks ago but I don't see him on your posts lately. How do you feel about him?

I've mentioned him as a possible target at 22, or possibly with a slight trade back, depending on how high his stock goes after the combine. As a junior he's not in the post-season games, so we'll have to wait for the combine to get a look at him. He's raw, but has as much upside as anyone in the draft. I'm personally ambivalent about him - I think others will be more ready to contribute right away, but his upside is hard to ignore.

 

[mayoclinic]

I prefer the 2nd to the 3rd, but we'll see as the board plays out on Draft Day Friday.

There will be some very good values in the 3rd round. Right now, for example, NFLdraftscout has the following:

66 - OG Mike Johnson, Alabama
73 - DE/OLB Greg Hardy, Mississippi
75 - CB Amari Spievey, Iowa
81 - RB Dexter McCluster, Mississippi
86 - RB Toby Gerhart, Stanford
87 - LB Eric Norwood, South Carolina
88 - DE/OLB Austen Lane, Murray St.
91 - CB Kareem Jackson, Alabama
92 - WR Mardy Gilyard, Cincinnati
93 - OG Rodger Saffold, Indiana
94 - DE/DT Arthur Jones, Syracuse
96 - DE Alex Carrington, Arkansas St.
98 - CB Javier Arenas, Alabama
116 - TE Tony Moeaki, Iowa
117 - WR Erick Decker, Minnesota
125 - LB AJ Edds, Iowa

You can make a case that a lot of those guys could easily be 2nd round values. I also suspect I could draft 4 solid future starters from that list without much difficulty.