How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th & 2?

[BradyManny]

So, 50 minutes of football into our Week 10 matchup with the Colts, we were absolutely thrashing these guys. We had a 3 possession lead in spite of a goal-line fumble. Our offense was having its way and looked like vintage 2007, and our defense was keeping Manning in check.

Then, all hell broke loose and the rest is history.

I can't say I remember a season that seems to have so clearly turned on one game, or even one play. If the side judge doesn't make the false assumption that Faulk bobbled the ball all the way to the ground, and if instead, the proper call is made, we win that game, and an alternate reality for the 2009 NFL season is created (someone get the writers of Lost to get to work on that).

The 2009 Colts are a flawed team that has found a way to win games and make plays when it mattered. The 2009 Patriots were a flawed team that found a way to lose games and failed to make plays when it mattered. Would that one play have had any serious effect on that dynamic, and/or changed the outcome of either team's season?

 

[upstater1]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

We travel to Indy for the AFC CG.

Do we win?

Do we lose?

Is Wes Welker playing?

 

[BradyManny]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

We travel to Indy for the AFC CG.

Do we win?

Do we lose?

Is Wes Welker playing?

That's not a safe assumption - at that point, we would've been 7-2, Colts would've been 8-1. Who is to say our momentum doesn't propel us to play like that the rest of the way? And who is to say that without the perfect season momentum, the Colts don't lose one of those tight games that ensued?

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

So, 50 minutes of football into our Week 10 matchup with the Colts, we were absolutely thrashing these guys. We had a 3 possession lead in spite of a goal-line fumble. Our offense was having its way and looked like vintage 2007, and our defense was keeping Manning in check.

Then, all hell broke loose and the rest is history.

I can't say I remember a season that seems to have so clearly turned on one game, or even one play. If the side judge doesn't make the false assumption that Faulk bobbled the ball all the way to the ground, and if instead, the proper call is made, we win that game, and an alternate reality for the 2009 NFL season is created (someone get the writers of Lost to get to work on that).

The 2009 Colts are a flawed team that has found a way to win games and make plays when it mattered. The 2009 Patriots were a flawed team that found a way to lose games and failed to make plays when it mattered. Would that one play have had any serious effect on that dynamic, and/or changed the outcome of either team's season?

When presented with a new officer or commander, Napolean was presented with the guy's qualifications and accomplishments. Afterward, Napolean was said to have always asked, "Yeah, but is he lucky?".

What I still have a problem with is the Butler PI penalty.

Maybe if Goober wins a second Super Bowl, the NFL can stop making WWE look spontaneous and not pre-determined.

Still losing Welker was really the downfall of this season. That's something that could not be overcome.

 

[BradyManny]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

When presented with a new officer or commander, Napolean was presented with the guy's qualifications and accomplishments. Afterward, Napolean was said to have always asked, "Yeah, but is he lucky?".

What I still have a problem with is the Butler PI penalty.

Maybe if Goober wins a second Super Bowl, the NFL can stop making WWE look spontaneous and not pre-determined.

Still losing Welker was really the downfall of this season. That's something that could not be overcome.

Agreed - but again, if we win that game, a completely different season unfolds, and who is to say Welker is in that spot at that time he blew out his knee. Maybe we have clinched by then, and maybe we do keep some starters out. Maybe our offense is clicking so well by then that we don't feel the need to use Week 17 as a tuneup. Who knows?

I agree, that Butler PI call was crap, but the Colts get those calls b/c they have mouthy receivers, a whiny QB, and an even whinier team Prez in Polian. Honestly, I'd like to see Welker, Moss et al start lobbying for calls. NFL referees are a weak species. They cave to peer pressure.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

Agreed - but again, if we win that game, a completely different season unfolds, and who is to say Welker is in that spot at that time he blew out his knee. Maybe we have clinched by then, and maybe we do keep some starters out. Maybe our offense is clicking so well by then that we don't feel the need to use Week 17 as a tuneup. Who knows?

I agree, that Butler PI call was crap, but the Colts get those calls b/c they have mouthy receivers, a whiny QB, and an even whinier team Prez in Polian. Honestly, I'd like to see Welker, Moss et al start lobbying for calls. NFL referees are a weak species. They cave to peer pressure.

Actually, it was 57 minutes of domination. I agree that the season would have been different because the confidence factor would have been solid.

However, I sat through the 4th quarter thinking when the bogus call would show.

 

[patsfan-1982]

the pats would have one more regular season. win thats it. the way tom brady, played to end the season. this team was not going to go deep in to the playoffs with a average D

 

[letekro]

Another way to look at the close loss is that the Colts were so much better than the Pats this year that they could spot them a 17 point lead with 10 minutes to go and still win. I think this is closer to the truth than what the OP is implying.

 

[Jangles]

We win the super bowl in a 55-0 blow out of the 49ers

 

[upstater1]

Re: How differently does the season unfold if we convert that 4th&2?

That's not a safe assumption - at that point, we would've been 7-2, Colts would've been 8-1. Who is to say our momentum doesn't propel us to play like that the rest of the way? And who is to say that without the perfect season momentum, the Colts don't lose one of those tight games that ensued?

I didn't say momentum would propel us.

I'm assuming we get a bye and that we'd host the Jets at Foxboro.

 

[upstater1]

the pats would have one more regular season. win thats it. the way tom brady, played to end the season. this team was not going to go deep in to the playoffs with a average D

No, they'd have won the Houston game because a bye would have been on the line, and probably the Miami game for the same reason. I tack on three more wins to the record if the 4-2 had been converted. That's how huge that call was.

 

[rabthepat]

It was not a matter of conversion. It was a horrible decision. If he had punted on 4th and 2 would be a more relevant question.

You do not go for 4th and 2s on your side of the 50 yard line when you have the lead. YOU PUNT THE BALL. Football 101....

 

[letekro]

It was not a matter of conversion. It was a horrible decision. If he had punted on 4th and 2 would be a more relevant question.

You do not go for 4th and 2s on your side of the 50 yard line when you have the lead. YOU PUNT THE BALL. Football 101....

You absolutely do when conversion wins you the game and the alternative is punting the ball to Peyton in the PI Dome with 2 minutes to go (i.e., an eternity). I would've bet my life that the Colts would have scored in that spot. Even if we had stopped them, the stop would've only come in the red zone as we would have been in bend but don't break. So, that's yet another reason to go for it there (i.e., they would've moved between the 30s with impunity, so what's the point in punting when you have a chance to ice the game by picking up 2 measly yards?). What you're talking about maybe football 101, and that's fine for the Herm Edwardses and Dave Wannstedts of the world, but I want my coach to actually have the ability to think for himself.

 

[Triumph]

It was not a matter of conversion. It was a horrible decision. If he had punted on 4th and 2 would be a more relevant question.

You do not go for 4th and 2s on your side of the 50 yard line when you have the lead. YOU PUNT THE BALL. Football 101....

It was the right call.

Indy plays NE with no huddle to wear down the defense to capitalize in the 2 half. Manning just completed 2 long scoring drives in minutes and the NE D was spent.

Brady had Welker open coming across the middle with his man beat, but didnt see him.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

The season was going nowhere the minute we lost a valid 3rd receiver and Adalius was causing chaos on the defense and no one stepped up to stamp his leadership on the team.

This team was destined one and done before the halfway mark IMO,It simply was not good enough of a team to win a championship,with an overall roster only good enough to win an extremely mediocre and easy AFC East and not much more.

 

[FootballFan85]

Why on earth would anyone think that beating the Colts, or anything for that matter, would have any outcome on Wes Welker being injured?

Remember, 'The Pats don't lay down', so regardless of what was or wasn't on the line, the Pats would be playing all their starters right? Welker was injured on a cut early in the game, not on some big play with big consequences late in the game. So there is no reason to think he wouldn't still be in the game.

I could just as easily say that had the sun come up 5 minutes later that day, Welker would still be healthy. Or that if they had've served a different set of soft drinks at the concession stands, Welker would still be healthy.

Projecting a win against the Colts into having anything to do with Welker's injury is the most ridiculous kind of conjecture.

It is just as valid to say that the Pats would've beat the Colts and then lost again to Miami, or that they would've beaten the Colts and the Colts would've been crushed on gone on to lose half or more of their remaning games.

You could literally make up anything you want.

 

[PromisedLand]

This year's team was not very good by the standards we have become used to. They weren't very good on defense (despite the points allowed stats piled up against weak teams) and they weren't very good at running the ball or even throwing the ball against any team with a decent pass rush. Even their special teams play was off. Had they won in Indy I don't think the end of the season would have been any different.

 

[The Dynasty]

Let the 4th and 2 debate begin again...

 

[WhiZa]

A win would have no effect on the playoff standing so we would of still gotten blown out by the Ravens.

 

[BradyManny]

Why on earth would anyone think that beating the Colts, or anything for that matter, would have any outcome on Wes Welker being injured?

Remember, 'The Pats don't lay down', so regardless of what was or wasn't on the line, the Pats would be playing all their starters right? Welker was injured on a cut early in the game, not on some big play with big consequences late in the game. So there is no reason to think he wouldn't still be in the game.

I could just as easily say that had the sun come up 5 minutes later that day, Welker would still be healthy. Or that if they had've served a different set of soft drinks at the concession stands, Welker would still be healthy.

The Patriots have held out starters or limited the playing time of starters in the past. They needed to play Week 17 to try and continue some momentum and work on things. If the season unfolds differently, there is no telling if Welker is in there at that moment and not on the bench.