How important is Wilfork to the Pats?

[aluminum seats]

I'm not sure if the fact that Wilfork wasn't 100% against the Ravens has been noted enough. The story of that game, even apart from the freak occurrences in the first quarter, was the Pats’ inability to get the Ravens off the field. However many yards they needed on third down, they would get it, over and over again. The Pats’ run defense was almost unrecognizable from earlier in the season, when Wilfork was healthy.

I was thinking about this regarding the Jets playing on, despite having no QB play to speak of. When the Pats played the Jets in November (seems like years ago), the Pats stifled the Jets’ running game, and that was that—jumped out to a 24-0 lead, held the ball for 40 minutes, and away we go. Now, a couple of months later, if the game was replayed, I think the result would have been quite different. Why? Because Wilfork being hurt would have fundamentally altered the Pats’ defense. (Additionally, the Jets have improved throughout the year and are peaking now, the way the Pats used to do and hopefully will again.)

We’ve also seen that the tremendous turnover the Pats have undergone, particularly on the defensive side, has taken a toll on the overall makeup of the team. Wilfork is a guy who’s been here and who gets it. The last thing the Pats need is to lose somebody like that.

This is one area I don’t want to have some value chart decide we’re better if he leaves town. On a team with a lot of question marks, the guy’s one of the few exclamation points. Pay the man whatever it takes, and spend time dealing with the problem areas.

(By the way, speaking of that Jets’ game, I loved this quote from Revis. “We play those guys straight up but their one-two punch got the best of us….Welker did a triple move that was crazy, man. He's great.” So yeah, Welker was pretty important too.)

 

[mayoclinic]

How important is Brady?

Wilfork is one of the 3-5 most important players on the Pats, and probably the most important player on defense. You can't under-estimate his value.

 

[JSn]

He's VERY important. That said, the Jets lost their monster in the middle mid-season and are in AFC game.

 

[emoney_33]

I'm not sure if the fact that Wilfork wasn't 100% against the Ravens has been noted enough. The story of that game, even apart from the freak occurrences in the first quarter, was the Pats’ inability to get the Ravens off the field. However many yards they needed on third down, they would get it, over and over again. The Pats’ run defense was almost unrecognizable from earlier in the season, when Wilfork was healthy.

I've already shown this wasn't trully the case. The run defense was actually better in the Ravens game than it was the rest of the season as a whole. We had poor run defense in 2009, with or without Wilfork.

I was thinking about this regarding the Jets playing on, despite having no QB play to speak of. When the Pats played the Jets in November (seems like years ago), the Pats stifled the Jets’ running game, and that was that—jumped out to a 24-0 lead, held the ball for 40 minutes, and away we go. Now, a couple of months later, if the game was replayed, I think the result would have been quite different. Why? Because Wilfork being hurt would have fundamentally altered the Pats’ defense. (Additionally, the Jets have improved throughout the year and are peaking now, the way the Pats used to do and hopefully will again.)

They have Mark Sanchez, the gameplan will never be to take him out of the game. It had more to do with focus on the run than with Wilfork taking over. Although yes we are NOT nearly as good without Wilfork.

We’ve also seen that the tremendous turnover the Pats have undergone, particularly on the defensive side, has taken a toll on the overall makeup of the team. Wilfork is a guy who’s been here and who gets it. The last thing the Pats need is to lose somebody like that.

This is one area I don’t want to have some value chart decide we’re better if he leaves town. On a team with a lot of question marks, the guy’s one of the few exclamation points. Pay the man whatever it takes, and spend time dealing with the problem areas.

(By the way, speaking of that Jets’ game, I loved this quote from Revis. “We play those guys straight up but their one-two punch got the best of us….Welker did a triple move that was crazy, man. He's great.” So yeah, Welker was pretty important too.)

Wilfork is absolutely the most important part of the defense. I don't feel you used the best examples to show this, but I completely agree with the premise. As long as Wilfork doesn't demand outrageous money, I think the Patriots understand his high value. He's a player that the Patriots will try hard to re-sign IMO. Not to say that there is no price that is too high, but judging by everything we know from the parties involved, I'm pretty confident that a deal will get done.

 

[aluminum seats]

They have Mark Sanchez, the gameplan will never be to take him out of the game. It had more to do with focus on the run than with Wilfork taking over.

I don't understand this.

 

[JSn]

I don't understand this.

Me either. One of the more mysterious lines ever typed here...

 

[WhiZa]

He's VERY important. That said, the Jets lost their monster in the middle mid-season and are in AFC game.

Also for what everyone says about Seymour's strength against the run, the team only gave up 3 more yards per game on run defense. While the Pats had to play #1 and #4 best rushing teams in the NFL twice this season.

So how important is he? He definitly makes people better around him, but there is no reason to give him a record breaking contract since the team will still survive without him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Also for what everyone says about Seymour's strength against the run, the team only gave up 3 more yards per game on run defense. While the Pats had to play #1 and #4 best rushing teams in the NFL twice this season.

Good point. Despite the debacle against Baltimore (when Wilfork wasn't 100%), we did ok against the run this year. We played the #1 (twice), 2, 3, 4 (twice), 5, 6 and 10th rated running teams in the NFL this year, so 9 of our 16 games came against top 10 rushing teams. Weighting the fact that we played the Jets and Dolphins twice, those 9 teams averaged 148.6 YPG. We gave up an average of 110.5 YPG, and in those 9 games we averaged 120.9 YPG, well below their average.

 

[xmarkd400x]

I've already shown this wasn't trully the case. The run defense was actually better in the Ravens game than it was the rest of the season as a whole. We had poor run defense in 2009, with or without Wilfork.

Can you substantiate your claim? I just don't see how a game where the opposing QB was 4/10 for like 30 yards and an INT, and we still get shredded, counts as a "better than average" run game for the Pats D.

 

[BelichickFan]

How important is Brady?

Wilfork is one of the 3-5 most important players on the Pats, and probably the most important player on defense. You can't under-estimate his value.

I agree on the 3-5 but he's an order of magnitude, maybe two, lower than Brady. If you assumed he were gone, we would have an offseason to replace him and shame on Belichick if he can't. Teams lose NT and do fine. SD lost Williams. Cleveland played a lot better after Rogers went out. The Jest lost theirs and are doing fine. I think Wilfork will be with us in 2010 but if we were to Franchise and Trade him then have FA and the draft to replace him, we should be able to - because other teams are doing it just fine. He's a great run stopped but 2 down run stoppers can be found.

 

[BradyManny]

He's as important as any defensive player only playing 50-60% of the defensive snaps can be. He's top 3-5 in importance on this team, as Mayo says, but I do think it's worth throwing the disclaimer in there that he is not a 3-down player.

Personally, I thought Seymour was more important b/c he could play all 3 downs. Clearly the coaching staff and FO thought otherwise. Granted, our run defense wasn't as good this year with or without Wilfork (4.4 YPC in 09 vs. 4.1 in 08; 110 YPG in 09 vs 107 PG in 08) - likely due to the linebacker player, but also the absence of Sey.

But let's put it this way - we have to re-sign Wilfork. If Brace had shown signs of life, maybe we'd have some leverage, but we need big Vince back.

 

[mcsully]

Simply Put: He's part of the solution..

Part of the problem is LB and the safety play..

 

[aluminum seats]

I agree on the 3-5 but he's an order of magnitude, maybe two, lower than Brady. If you assumed he were gone, we would have an offseason to replace him and shame on Belichick if he can't. Teams lose NT and do fine. SD lost Williams. Cleveland played a lot better after Rogers went out. The Jest lost theirs and are doing fine. I think Wilfork will be with us in 2010 but if we were to Franchise and Trade him then have FA and the draft to replace him, we should be able to - because other teams are doing it just fine. He's a great run stopped but 2 down run stoppers can be found.

I understand what you're saying, but jeez, the Pats have a bunch of areas they need to shore up. It just seems hugely important to be able to write a check and know a big spot is taken care of. He's also somewhat of a leader, I think--in attitude & demeanor, if nothing else.

 

[BelichickFan]

I understand what you're saying, but jeez, the Pats have a bunch of areas they need to shore up. It just seems hugely important to be able to write a check and know a big spot is taken care of. He's also somewhat of a leader, I think--in attitude & demeanor, if nothing else.

I want Vince back. For all the reasons you list. But this idea that he's irreplaceable or even in the same universe of importance as Brady is way overstated IMO. Combining what other teams did without their stud NT and that if we were to trade him we'd have an offseason to replace him makes me not want to panic. We were ill prepared to play without him in 2009 but we didn't need to replace him as we had him under contract.

 

[PatsChamp88]

How important is he well the simple solution would be to look at film and statistics of games without him. Wilfork in my opinion is without a doubt the most dominate player on defense he consistently is double teamed, the problem this year was he was banged up which hopefully doesn't start a trend because he has been a healthy player throughout his career. I find it amazing to see a guy such as Pat Williams who is 37 still playing on high level and healthy (missed 3 games since 2002) we can only hope that Wilfork (if resigned) can achieve something similar.

The one thing that stood out me about this last season is the run defense gave up an average of 4.4 yards a carry which is tied for 20th in the league. To me it just seemed we didn't have that push up front that could stop guys in backfield for little to no gain or a loss. However there were some obvious factors that prevented that push such as no Seymour, Wilfork and Warren being injured but at least there was adequate depth this season.

 

[emoney_33]

I don't understand this.

Me either. One of the more mysterious lines ever typed here...

I thought the claim was that we only stopped the Jets running game (in the first half btw, they ran well in the 2nd half) because of Wilfork and if we played them without him we'd do terrible. My point is that the fact that we need not worry about Sanchez makes playing the run easier, moreso than whether Wilfork plays or not.

Good point. Despite the debacle against Baltimore (when Wilfork wasn't 100%), we did ok against the run this year. We played the #1 (twice), 2, 3, 4 (twice), 5, 6 and 10th rated running teams in the NFL this year, so 9 of our 16 games came against top 10 rushing teams. Weighting the fact that we played the Jets and Dolphins twice, those 9 teams averaged 148.6 YPG. We gave up an average of 110.5 YPG, and in those 9 games we averaged 120.9 YPG, well below their average.

4.4 YPC is not doing "OK" IMO.

Can you substantiate your claim? I just don't see how a game where the opposing QB was 4/10 for like 30 yards and an INT, and we still get shredded, counts as a "better than average" run game for the Pats D.

I broke it down during a discussion about Seymour, starting at post #15

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...10/315134-richard-seymour-weei-now-page2.html

A list of some key points:

1) 4 of 6 Ravens scoring drives started inside the 25. (2 of those 4 were held to FGs)

2) They had 6 drives that weren't end of half or inside the 25, and they ended in 4 punts, 1 TD and 1 INT.

3) The offense averaged something ridiculous like 3 plays per drive throughout the first quarter and the entire first half was still under 4 per drive (for 7 total drives).

4) 51 rushes for 2.96 YPC after that 83 yard TD (3.6 for Rice, 3.1 for McGahee, the remaining skew down to 2.96 probably from Flacco/3rd stringer)

The drives that did not start inside the 25 broke down like this:

1 play TD - fluke obviously, but it happened
3 plays punt
4 plays INT
3 plays punt
7 plays end of half

In the 2nd half:
3 plays punt
12 plays TD (end of 3rd quarter, maybe the D was just a tad tired?)
4 plays punt
2 plays end of game

Rice averaged 5.5 YPC against the Colts. He averaged 3.6 YPC + 83 Yard TD against us. The Ravens really weren't able to sustain a drive until the end of 3rd / beginning of 4th.

The run defense still wasn't what you would consider very good, but it was surely good enough. That game is entirely different if Welker wasn't hurt.

 

[PowerRunRevival]

He's so important that I believe if we don't resign him we have no chance of winning the division.

 

[SanAngeloState]

I don't think he's that important. He's good but not great.

The 83 yarder with Rice was right over his spot. He was double teamed, I know, but isn't he supposed to hold his ground? Isn't that what he's paid for?

I think they tag and trade him. There's a reason they haven't signed him yet. I don't think they intend to.

Brace, not sure about.

They could always go 4-3, although it would be nice if they had some pass rushers.

Of the good 3-4 NTs, alot of them seem to have been drafted very late, or sometimes not at all. In some ways, I think playing NT is a waste of Wilfork's ability. He's quick, but apparently can't hold his ground that well. See Ray Rice, 83 yards.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't think he's that important. He's good but not great.

This is what I keep going over. Is he Ted Washington, Kris Jenkins or Albert Haynesworth in their primes? No. Is he a very good player and important to the scheme of this defense? Absolutely.

The 83 yarder with Rice was right over his spot. He was double teamed, I know, but isn't he supposed to hold his ground? Isn't that what he's paid for?

That stuff happens and pulling out one play to make a point isn't fair. Saturday ran him over in the 06 AFCCG and people said he was tired-(which may be true). Overall he has been a very good player in this defense and deserves to paid something. I don't know what that amount is or what is fair. However, he doesn't force fumbles. He doesn't get any sacks. He'll pressure on the QB sometimes, but IMO he is not a game-changer. He clogs space and enables folks like Mayo, Guyton, etc. to make plays. Is that all worth a $20-$30m in guarantees? Don't know.

I think they tag and trade him. There's a reason they haven't signed him yet. I don't think they intend to.

The reason that they haven't signed him is multi-fold:

1. Lack of CBA impacts market demand for him (who can afford/who can't), potential work stoppage and if signing him means doling out a $15 signing bonus that hes banks for a year and there is no football in 2011, thats not good business and cash flow management. The team still has expenses even if there isn't football. Obviously they are looking at cap/lack of cap implications, other team needs, etc.

2. Maybe they wanted to see how he played this year. Don't know. I thought he had a good year but BB KNOWS the kind of year he had.

3. Need to take care of Brady first.

Brace, not sure about.

Me neither.

They could always go 4-3, although it would be nice if they had some pass rushers.

Still can get good inside DTs like Robbins, etc. and not have to pay them big bucks. Going to a 4-3 exclusively is possible, but I dont see it likely as BB likes to show multiple fronts.

Of the good 3-4 NTs, alot of them seem to have been drafted very late, or sometimes not at all. In some ways, I think playing NT is a waste of Wilfork's ability. He's quick, but apparently can't hold his ground that well. See Ray Rice, 83 yards.

Again, you are taking a single play and ignoring his 6 years with the team. C'mon.

 

[alphilip77]

PAY DA MAN!!!!! (Within reason)