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In response to a request from Box O'Rocks for more Draftlab reviews of defensive line prospects, KC Joyner at the ESPN Draftlab just came out with this review of UCLA DT Brian Price:
Draft day in the NFL can often look similar to a highly publicized IPO stock offering on Wall Street -- just as buyer's frenzy can drive the price of a new stock to ridiculous heights, professional football franchises can often overvalue players whenever there is a run on prospects at certain positions.
The 2008 draft offered a perfect example of this. Everyone knew the Dolphins were going to select Michigan Wolverines LT Jake Long with the No. 1 pick in the draft, but Long was only one of eight highly touted left tackles. This volume of talent caused a lot of teams to believe that they could land one of these cornerstones for their roster even if they had a late first-round draft slot. That mindset was the primary reason why seven left tackles were selected from picks 12-26 in that draft, even if some of those players were considered reaches.
The problem for teams in this scenario is the same as someone purchasing the IPO stock. Just as the most successful stockbrokers set a value point on a stock that they won't go over regardless of how trading goes, NFL teams do best when they establish a value point for the prospects at the run position that they adhere to as draft day gospel.
I bring this up because today's Draft Lab subject, UCLA defensive tackle Brian Price, could end up being on the precipice of that value point for many teams. He is one of those prospects who is graded quite high in some circles (No. 13 on Mel Kiper's most recent Big Board) but who is perceived as having less value in others (No. 30 in Todd McShay's initial Mock Draft).
That means he could end up on either side of the defensive tackle run that is almost certain to happen in this year's draft.
So which side of that potential run do the metrics and scouting eye review say he should land on? Let's start with the numbers.
Price's run-stopping metrics in the five games I broke down (at Tennessee, at Stanford, vs. Oregon, vs. Arizona State, at USC) are very impressive. He won eighteen of the fifty-seven point of attack (POA) run blocks directed his way and also drew two holding penalties. Put the two together and it equals a 35.1 percent POA win rate; that is almost equal to Ndamukong Suh's 35.3 percent POA win rate (read more on Suh here).
Price was also comparable to Suh in his POA win rate when blocked by a single defender. He won 16 of the 36 single-team POA blocks, or 44.4 percent, versus Suh's fourteen wins in thirty-two POA blocks (43.8 percent win rate).
Where Price doesn't match up with Suh is in splash play volume (a splash play being defined as when a defender does something to negatively impact a passing play -- sacks, tipped passes and hurries being chief among these). Suh had 36 of these in seven games versus Price's 13 in five games, but Price did have a higher splash play percentage on pure pass rush plays (15.5 percent versus Suh's 13.6 percent).
That shows Price's potential upside -- but it also illustrates part of his downside. Suh's splash play rate was achieved in 272 pass rush attempts. Price's came in only 97 attempts. Part of that is due to my having broken down seven of Suh's games versus five of Price's, but that still doesn't account for the huge gap in play volume.
To look at that from another angle, Price was on the field for 234 of the 318 defensive snaps the Bruins faced in those contests, or 73.5 percent of the time. Suh was in 496 of the 508 Cornhusker snaps, or 97.6 percent of Nebraska's plays. Price's on-field percentage total is one of the lowest of any of the defensive tackles in the Draft Lab series, and that suggests durability could be something of a concern.
Another concern is that Price is a two-trick pony from a pass-rush move perspective -- and only one of those tricks seems to work well. Eight of his thirteen splash plays came as a result of a very effective "rip" move, but he gained only one splash as a result of the bull rush that serves as his primary pass rush technique. If he didn't see much success with his power move at the collegiate level, it stands to reason that he'll see even less success with it in the NFL, so developing other moves should be high on his offseason training list.
The Football Scientist Lab Result: Any favorable comparison to Ndamukong Suh is obviously very noteworthy. The durability and pass rush move concerns may keep him from cracking the top 10 on draft day, but all in all Price looks like he should land on the positive side of the value point scale. He gets a TFS seal of approval.
NFL Draft 2010 - K.C. Joyner: UCLA's Brian Price is similar to Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh in several ways -- but lesser in many key ones as well - ESPN
I think Price compares favorably with Suh as a prospect from a year ago, when Suh considered declaring. If he had stayed for his senior year he would likely have been a top 5-10 pick in 2011. I think he's a top 20, potentially top 15 pick, with Seattle, the Giants, and Tennessee as possible destinations.
The question is, is he a 3-4 DE candidate? He's a bit on the short side a 6'2". But I'd have to give him a serious look if he fell into the 20's.
Draft day in the NFL can often look similar to a highly publicized IPO stock offering on Wall Street -- just as buyer's frenzy can drive the price of a new stock to ridiculous heights, professional football franchises can often overvalue players whenever there is a run on prospects at certain positions.
The 2008 draft offered a perfect example of this. Everyone knew the Dolphins were going to select Michigan Wolverines LT Jake Long with the No. 1 pick in the draft, but Long was only one of eight highly touted left tackles. This volume of talent caused a lot of teams to believe that they could land one of these cornerstones for their roster even if they had a late first-round draft slot. That mindset was the primary reason why seven left tackles were selected from picks 12-26 in that draft, even if some of those players were considered reaches.
The problem for teams in this scenario is the same as someone purchasing the IPO stock. Just as the most successful stockbrokers set a value point on a stock that they won't go over regardless of how trading goes, NFL teams do best when they establish a value point for the prospects at the run position that they adhere to as draft day gospel.
I bring this up because today's Draft Lab subject, UCLA defensive tackle Brian Price, could end up being on the precipice of that value point for many teams. He is one of those prospects who is graded quite high in some circles (No. 13 on Mel Kiper's most recent Big Board) but who is perceived as having less value in others (No. 30 in Todd McShay's initial Mock Draft).
That means he could end up on either side of the defensive tackle run that is almost certain to happen in this year's draft.
So which side of that potential run do the metrics and scouting eye review say he should land on? Let's start with the numbers.
Price's run-stopping metrics in the five games I broke down (at Tennessee, at Stanford, vs. Oregon, vs. Arizona State, at USC) are very impressive. He won eighteen of the fifty-seven point of attack (POA) run blocks directed his way and also drew two holding penalties. Put the two together and it equals a 35.1 percent POA win rate; that is almost equal to Ndamukong Suh's 35.3 percent POA win rate (read more on Suh here).
Price was also comparable to Suh in his POA win rate when blocked by a single defender. He won 16 of the 36 single-team POA blocks, or 44.4 percent, versus Suh's fourteen wins in thirty-two POA blocks (43.8 percent win rate).
Where Price doesn't match up with Suh is in splash play volume (a splash play being defined as when a defender does something to negatively impact a passing play -- sacks, tipped passes and hurries being chief among these). Suh had 36 of these in seven games versus Price's 13 in five games, but Price did have a higher splash play percentage on pure pass rush plays (15.5 percent versus Suh's 13.6 percent).
That shows Price's potential upside -- but it also illustrates part of his downside. Suh's splash play rate was achieved in 272 pass rush attempts. Price's came in only 97 attempts. Part of that is due to my having broken down seven of Suh's games versus five of Price's, but that still doesn't account for the huge gap in play volume.
To look at that from another angle, Price was on the field for 234 of the 318 defensive snaps the Bruins faced in those contests, or 73.5 percent of the time. Suh was in 496 of the 508 Cornhusker snaps, or 97.6 percent of Nebraska's plays. Price's on-field percentage total is one of the lowest of any of the defensive tackles in the Draft Lab series, and that suggests durability could be something of a concern.
Another concern is that Price is a two-trick pony from a pass-rush move perspective -- and only one of those tricks seems to work well. Eight of his thirteen splash plays came as a result of a very effective "rip" move, but he gained only one splash as a result of the bull rush that serves as his primary pass rush technique. If he didn't see much success with his power move at the collegiate level, it stands to reason that he'll see even less success with it in the NFL, so developing other moves should be high on his offseason training list.
The Football Scientist Lab Result: Any favorable comparison to Ndamukong Suh is obviously very noteworthy. The durability and pass rush move concerns may keep him from cracking the top 10 on draft day, but all in all Price looks like he should land on the positive side of the value point scale. He gets a TFS seal of approval.
NFL Draft 2010 - K.C. Joyner: UCLA's Brian Price is similar to Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh in several ways -- but lesser in many key ones as well - ESPN
I think Price compares favorably with Suh as a prospect from a year ago, when Suh considered declaring. If he had stayed for his senior year he would likely have been a top 5-10 pick in 2011. I think he's a top 20, potentially top 15 pick, with Seattle, the Giants, and Tennessee as possible destinations.
The question is, is he a 3-4 DE candidate? He's a bit on the short side a 6'2". But I'd have to give him a serious look if he fell into the 20's.
