First Round Prospects

[mayoclinic]

Prospects I consider worth a 1st round grade right now, of potential interest to the Pats:

Prospects Out of Reach

- Ndamukong Suh, DE/DT, Nebraska - top 3 pick. Would cost our whole draft to get him.

Prospects Worth a 10 Position Trade Up

- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama - best defensive leader in the draft and fabulous playmaker.

Prospects Worth Taking at 22

- Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB - 6'6" 270# pass rusher with 4.6 speed and great agility. The kind of guy BB is always raving about, if his inconsistency and off-field issues don't take him off the list.
- CJ Spiller, RB - best offensive playmaker in the draft.
- Dan Williams, DT/DE - a poor man's Haloti Ngata/Albert Haynesworth.
- Terrance Cody, DT - an immovable wall at NT.
- Brian Bulaga, OT (could also play RG) - could be an all pro RT for us.

Prospects Worth Considering With a Small Trade Down

- Mike Iupati, OG - would start day 1 at RG, could possibly also play RT.
- Jonathan Dwyer, RB - a poor man's Jonathan Stewart.
- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB - raw, but as much upside as anyone in the draft.

Excluding Suh, that's 9 potential targets in the 1st round.

I've excluded some of the following:

- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - top 10 pick, and safety isn't a position of need
- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - top 12 pick, and more of a 4-3 DE than a DE/OLB
- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - top 10 pick, and not a schematic fit
- Joe Haden, CB, Florida - don't want to go CB in this draft, but he'd be worth it if he slipped a bit
- Brian Price, DE/DT, UCA - a bit on the short side, but a terrific player
- Earl Thomas, S, Texas - top 20 pick, and safety isn't a position of need
- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. - off field issues, and don't want to go WR in the 1st round
- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - immature, and not a good schematic fit
- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - QB not of interest
- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - ditto
- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St. - top 5 pick, not that big a need
- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - pure LT prospect, which is not a need

That's 22 guys right there, so the odds are that one of the guys I've listed as worth taking at 22 will be available when we pick.

 

[mgteich]

This is a fine list. As you say, we should be able to get one of your 10 targets.

Is Gresham not listed because you don't even want to consider that some GM who likes TE's might choose him? I expect him to be in the top 22, don't you?

Also, I expect that more OG's will reach the first by Draft Day as Eric Wood did last year. Ducasse and Johnson would seem possibilities for a small trade down.

Prospects I consider worth a 1st round grade right now, of potential interest to the Pats:

Prospects Out of Reach

- Ndamukong Suh, DE/DT, Nebraska - top 3 pick. Would cost our whole draft to get him.

Prospects Worth a 10 Position Trade Up

- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama - best defensive leader in the draft and fabulous playmaker.

Prospects Worth Taking at 22

- Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB - 6'6" 270# pass rusher with 4.6 speed and great agility. The kind of guy BB is always raving about, if his inconsistency and off-field issues don't take him off the list.
- CJ Spiller, RB - best offensive playmaker in the draft.
- Dan Williams, DT/DE - a poor man's Haloti Ngata/Albert Haynesworth.
- Terrance Cody, DT - an immovable wall at NT.
- Brian Bulaga, OT (could also play RG) - could be an all pro RT for us.

Prospects Worth Considering With a Small Trade Down

- Mike Iupati, OG - would start day 1 at RG, could possibly also play RT.
- Jonathan Dwyer, RB - a poor man's Jonathan Stewart.
- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB - raw, but as much upside as anyone in the draft.

Excluding Suh, that's 9 potential targets in the 1st round.

I've excluded some of the following:

- Eric Berry, S, Tennessee - top 10 pick, and safety isn't a position of need
- Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech - top 12 pick, and more of a 4-3 DE than a DE/OLB
- Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma - top 10 pick, and not a schematic fit
- Joe Haden, CB, Florida - don't want to go CB in this draft, but he'd be worth it if he slipped a bit
- Brian Price, DE/DT, UCA - a bit on the short side, but a terrific player
- Earl Thomas, S, Texas - top 20 pick, and safety isn't a position of need
- Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St. - off field issues, and don't want to go WR in the 1st round
- Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers - immature, and not a good schematic fit
- Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma - QB not of interest
- Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame - ditto
- Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St. - top 5 pick, not that big a need
- Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland - pure LT prospect, which is not a need

That's 22 guys right there, so the odds are that one of the guys I've listed as worth taking at 22 will be available when we pick.

 

[BelichickFan]

I would trade up for Haden. If we could get him and Butler together with Wilhite in the slot we would have a nice group without the need to spend $$$ on Bodden (who I like but I think will leave).

Also I agree with mgteich, I love Gresham and think he's a likely pick if there and if his knee checks out.

 

[mgteich]

We will know whether we have picked up a top free agent corner (or re-signed Bodden) long before the draft. As you say, if we don't pay out big bucks for a top corner, Haden would be on our trade up list.

I would trade up for Haden. If we could get him and Butler together with Wilhite in the slot we would have a nice group without the need to spend $$$ on Bodden (who I like but I think will leave).

Also I agree with mgteich, I love Gresham and think he's a likely pick if there and if his knee checks out.

 

[Metaphors]

Couple of points:

1) Add in Trent Williams as well since there are at least 5 teams that should be looking at tackle before the Pats pick.

2) The teams picking before the Pats (ATL, HOU, CIN) are all prime candidates for reaching. ATL and HOU really need a CB and Haden should be long gone. If Donovan Warren or Patrick Robinson blow up at the combine, maybe they go before they should. CIN obviously needs a WR and Bryant may not be around. WRs always show up big at the combine so maybe someone will register a blistering time and CIN will bite.

3) LBs win rookie of the year all the time, so teams will be tempted to draft Spikes or Kindle earlier than expected.

4) Brian Price is getting a lot of pre-draft buzz and he could be tempting for teams looking for DL size, but maybe a little more speed/quickness.

So while I agree with your assessment, I think the possibility is high for teams picking ahead of the Pats to look outside your list for a player or two...pushing someone unexpected into the Pats range.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is a fine list. As you say, we should be able to get one of your 10 targets.

Is Gresham not listed because you don't even want to consider that some GM who likes TE's might choose him? I expect him to be in the top 22, don't you?

Also, I expect that more OG's will reach the first by Draft Day as Eric Wood did last year. Ducasse and Johnson would seem possibilities for a small trade down.

I'm ine adding Gresham to the list. I don't want us to consider TE in the 1st, and his injury status makes his draft position a bit unclear, which is why I didn't include him, but it probably makes sense to. I think he could easily go #21 to Cincinnati, where he would help there offense a lot.

I would trade up for Haden. If we could get him and Butler together with Wilhite in the slot we would have a nice group without the need to spend $$$ on Bodden (who I like but I think will leave).

Also I agree with mgteich, I love Gresham and think he's a likely pick if there and if his knee checks out.

I love Joe Haden and considered putting him on the "worth trading up for" list, but unless Bodden doesn't re-sign or isn't replaced I'd rather go in other directions. If Haden falls, he'd be too good to pass up. But I think he'll go in the 7-13 range, and the cost to trade up would be a lot.

 

[BelichickFan]

I love Joe Haden and considered putting him on the "worth trading up for" list, but unless Bodden doesn't re-sign or isn't replaced I'd rather go in other directions. If Haden falls, he'd be too good to pass up. But I think he'll go in the 7-13 range, and the cost to trade up would be a lot.

I agree that he would cost too much (CB are always drafted high and all the attention Revis is getting won't change that) but for completeness I would trade up for him if the possibility arose.

I don't want us to consider TE in the 1st

I do disagree with this. A top TE can help the running game as a blocker and the passing game as both a blocker and receiver. I'd far prefer him to an OL as I think he can help in more ways. However, if his knee is iffy I don't want him and if his knee is 100% he probably won't be there for us.

 

[BelichickFan]

It's looking like there's no real good first round options for a 3-4 DE. I'm expecting Jarvis to leave, I guess that makes Mike Wright our starting DRE unless FA or a non first round pick helps. That's kind of a big concern right now.

 

[mgteich]

Too expensive is an interesting concept, given that we would still have 2 seconds even if we trade up.

In hindsight, I can list just a few players I would rather have drafted instead of what we ended up with at 34 and 40 (our first two 2009 picks).

 

[BelichickFan]

Too expensive is an interesting concept, given that we would still have 2 seconds even if we trade up.

#22 and a mid #2 would get us to about #11 if you use the value charts as a guide (it's the best guess we've got). I think we'd need to trade #22 and two #2s to get in the top ten for Haden.

McClain, OTOH, we might get giving up just one #2. That would be tempting to have him and Mayo in the middle. We'd have TBC (if he returns), Guyton, Crable, McKenzie as possible OLB. Not great sounding but a little more workable.

 

[mgteich]

"Not great" would be a bit of an overstatement of value, even if Woods is added.

#22 and a mid #2 would get us to about #11 if you use the value charts as a guide (it's the best guess we've got). I think we'd need to trade #22 and two #2s to get in the top ten for Haden.

McClain, OTOH, we might get giving up just one #2. That would be tempting to have him and Mayo in the middle. We'd have TBC (if he returns), Guyton, Crable, McKenzie as possible OLB. Not great sounding but a little more workable.

 

[Jimke]

Not geat would be a bit of an overstatement of value, even if Woods is added.

The players mentioned are warm bodies but none of them would

be considered a good player.

 

[BelichickFan]

"Not great" would be a bit of an overstatement of value, even if Woods is added.

It is but if we had Mayo and McClain next to each other at ILB it would make the OLB look a lot better IMO. But, yeah, the OLB would be a below average group if taken from those we have now. I would definitely like to add a first or second round pick to that group if the right guy is there.

 

[Badluck]

Couple of points:

1) Add in Trent Williams as well since there are at least 5 teams that should be looking at tackle before the Pats pick.

2) The teams picking before the Pats (ATL, HOU, CIN) are all prime candidates for reaching. ATL and HOU really need a CB and Haden should be long gone. If Donovan Warren or Patrick Robinson blow up at the combine, maybe they go before they should. CIN obviously needs a WR and Bryant may not be around. WRs always show up big at the combine so maybe someone will register a blistering time and CIN will bite.

3) LBs win rookie of the year all the time, so teams will be tempted to draft Spikes or Kindle earlier than expected.

4) Brian Price is getting a lot of pre-draft buzz and he could be tempting for teams looking for DL size, but maybe a little more speed/quickness.

So while I agree with your assessment, I think the possibility is high for teams picking ahead of the Pats to look outside your list for a player or two...pushing someone unexpected into the Pats range.

i agree with everything you said except for #3 as we saw last year MLBs like rey mauluga(sp?) and james laurinatis (SP?) fell into the 2nd, both were expected to go in the teens so i can easily see spikes falling there

the bust-success ratio to DE/OLBS favors the bust side quite a bit so i can see teams being cautious of that

 

[SanAngeloState]

I think we might have a different scheme next year. Maybe more 4-3 1 gap. Don't know though, of course.

I'm wary of them drafting CBs. They draft them and don't develop them. The one skill Revis has that I would THINK coulod be taught is to LOOK BACK AT THE BALL. Other CBs don't do that. A lot of the time they could break up a pass easily if they'd just turn their head.

I've heard Dunlap is a slug.

I'm hoping they get McClaiin, he could fall somewhat.

And what's the deal on Mayo? Is he done? I think they rushed him back from his knee problem and may have done long term damage. Way to go.

 

[Nonentity]

Great post mayoclinic.

Greg Hardy in the 1st?

Prospects Worth a 10 Position Trade Up

- Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama - best defensive leader in the draft and fabulous playmaker.

Indeed. The following is the 1st round draft order:

Pick    Team
10/11* 	Denver Broncos(from Chicago) 			
10/11* 	Jacksonville Jaguars 			
12 	Miami Dolphins 			
13 	San Francisco 49ers 			
14 	Seattle Seahawks(from Denver) 			
15 	New York Giants 			
16/17* 	San Francisco 49ers(from Carolina) 			
16/17* 	Tennessee Titans 			
18 	Pittsburgh Steelers 			
19/20* 	Atlanta Falcons 			
19/20* 	Houston Texans 			
21 	Cincinnati Bengals 			
22 	New England Patriots

We can trade up to 13th overall by trading the 22nd and 53rd. However, we have a lot of needs this year and I would rather trade the 22nd and our 1st next year. You've got to find the right team for that deal, but I really prefer it.

If the Broncos take him at 10/11, we can't have him. If the Dolphins take him at 12, we can't have him. However, I would not be surprised if the Broncos took Cody. Or, at least, you can make an argument for it. If Dez Bryant falls past the Bills (who are taking Clausen/Bradford if either are still on the board) to the Dolphins, they perhaps take him over McClain.

NOW, once he gets past 12 he falls to a nice place for us to trade up. The 49ers probably take Bryan Bulaga (projects to RT in the pros), Joe Haden or, if they're idiots, Taylor Mays (they have the need, but he's a bust waiting to happen in the post-Roy "horse-collar" Williams era).

The Seahawks have a second 1st round pick at 14 (thanks Alphonso Smith!). If they took a QB then they take the best LT remaining, no need for McClain.

The Giants have to fix their defensive line, it collapsed in the second half of last season. They're surely taking a defensive tackle, although I have no clue about 4-3 DTs this year.

The 49ers have another pick (thanks Everette Brown!) at 16 and still aren't taking McClain.

The Titans are at 17 and crying out for Joe Haden to fall to them, or a pass-rusher. They won't be taking McClain. However, if Joe Haden is gone we should be able to convince them to move down five places and take the best available Defensive End.

You can theorise him falling all the way to us, but if he reaches 17/18 then someone is trading up for him. The only annoying thing is that we have no decent mid-round trade bait...unless Adalius Thomas counts.


This is inspiring me to do a 1st round mock draft including trades - would anyone be interested?

 

[ayjackson]

Prospects I consider worth a 1st round grade right now, of potential interest to the Pats:

WR, CB and LT may all be of potential interest to the Pats so I don't think you should exclude them if they grade out to the first round.

 

[carolinatony]

Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama - Would love to have him.Make cost too much

- Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB - Solid pick.
- CJ Spiller, RB - Pass - OL more a need
- Dan Williams, DT/DE - Solid pick
- Terrance Cody, DT - Pass ReSign Vinve
- Brian Bulaga, OT Love it , better than CJ Spiller My favorite pick

Prospects Worth Considering With a Small Trade Down

- Mike Iupati, OG - Solid pick..
- Jonathan Dwyer, RB - Solid 2nd rd pick.
- Jason Pierre-Paul, DE/OLB - Solid 2nd rd pick

 

[mayoclinic]

In response to some of the comments so far, I don't think that Greg Hardy or Trent Williams are clear 1st round picks at this point, so I didn't include them. They may both end up going in the 1st round, but I didn't want to project them at this point. Williams in particular I think is a pure RT, and scouts are divided on him, with many thinking he will be a mediocre pro prospect.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Hey Mayo, would you trade 22,42 and Oak 1 in 2011 for Suh?