How Many Contributers Should We Expect?

[mgteich]

We have lots of 2010 needs. Some will be be met by re-signing our own. Some will be met through trades. Others will be met through free agent signings.

How many 2010 contributers is it reasonable to expect from the 2010 draft? How about how many contributers, including future contributers.

I think that we tend to expect too much.

Should we really expect to fill more holes than we did in 2009? Should we really trade 5 picks before the 6th for two in the 10-15 range in the HOPE that both will be top contributers in 2010?

====================================================
In the "great" drafts from 2001-2004, we ended up with 2, 4 or 6 contributers depending on the year. I include special teamers in my listings. I'm sure that I left out a couple. I have not listed UDFA's.

2001 Seymour, Light
2002 Graham, Branch, Green, Givens
2003 Warren, Wilson, Johnson, Samuel, Koppen, Banta-Cain
2004 Wilfork, Watson

In 2005-2008, we had 1-5 contributers, depending on year
2005 Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel
2006 Maroney, Gostkowski, K. Smith, Andrews (a weak showing)
2007 Meriweather (we traded for Moss and Welker)
2008 Mayo, Wilhite, Slater

In 2009, we had 6 contributers and we are hoping for future contributions from McKenzie, Tate, Brace, Ohrnberger, Richard and Bussey. Butler and Vollmer seem to be top picks.
1) VOLLMER (starter by midseason)
2) BUTLER (nickel back and occasional returner)
3) EDELMAN (backup WR, backup returner)
4) PRYOR (backup DL)
5) INGRAM (deep snapper)
6) CHUNG (special teamer and #4 safety)
===================================

BOTTOM LINE
I would be fine with trading DOWN in a deep 2010 draft and HOPE to end up with six contributers. Unfortunately, we NEED to have at least TWO contributers from the draft: at OG and DE.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

I think we need more in this year's draft than just "contributions". In fact, we need impact players that seem to be difficult for BB and company to find.

 

[Nonentity]

BOTTOM LINE
I would be fine with trading DOWN in a deep 2101 draft

Man, I know Bill likes to roll forward picks but this seems a bit too far

 

[Mogamedogz]

Unless we can trade a couple of picks to KC for Scott Pioli... I'd taper my expectations.

Im having almost as hard a time getting over this past draft as I did the David Tyree catch.

 

[mgteich]

fixed...........

Man, I know Bill likes to roll forward picks but this seems a bit too far

 

[mgteich]

As I said, I think we expect too much. We ended up with a starting LT (RT for) now and a starting corner (nickel for now) and lots of other contributers and 2 2010 picks. If that is not good enough for 2010, we can trade all five picks and end up with two players who we HOPE will be as good as Vollmer and Butler.

Vollmer is good enough to have been a top 10 pick. Butler is definitely worth a first. Edelman probably is worth a 3rd. These are indeed impact players. Plus we still had 11 more picks (two in 2010).

But perhaps you mean that you would like us to find 4 or 5 probowlers in one draft. We have never done that under Belichick. That is NOT reasonable. And that is NOT necessary in order to win Super Bowls.

The 2009 draft was the best or second best draft the patriots have had since Belichick arrived. We did not force as many to start as we did in 2003, but the first year is not when drafts should be judged. But even after the first year, it is only message board posters who think that the patriots did not have a great draft.

The frustrating thing is that it wasn't enough to immediately overcome weak drafts in 2006, 2007 and 2008, injuries to Brady and Mayo and poor coaching.

It is indeed rather amazing to hear that pioli was the greatest ever and then review the 2006-2008 drafts. There were some great trades, but there are many here who could have made picks at least as good as what we ended up with.
==================

There are those who think that all can be righted in this offseason, if just sign all our top free agents, sign three or four top drawer free agents from other teams, and draft three or four competitors for rookie of the year. I suspect that Oakland and Detroit fans feel the same way.

I think we need more in this year's draft than just "contributions". In fact, we need impact players that seem to be difficult for BB and company to find.

 

[Jimke]

Unless we can trade a couple of picks to KC for Scott Pioli... I'd taper my expectations.

Im having almost as hard a time getting over this past draft as I did the David Tyree catch.

I don't think Scott Pioli's last couple of drafts were anything to

write home about. I do give him credit for leaving before the team

started to crumble.

 

[Jimke]

We have lots of 2010 needs. Some will be be met by re-signing our own. Some will be met through trades. Others will be met through free agent signings.

How many 2010 contributers is it reasonable to expect from the 2010 draft? How about how many contributers, including future contributers.

I think that we tend to expect too much.

Should we really expect to fill more holes than we did in 2009? Should we really trade 5 picks before the 6th for two in the 10-15 range in the HOPE that both will be top contributers in 2010?

====================================================
In the "great" drafts from 2001-2004, we ended up with 2, 4 or 6 contributers depending on the year. I include special teamers in my listings. I'm sure that I left out a couple. I have not listed UDFA's.

2001 Seymour, Light
2002 Graham, Branch, Green, Givens
2003 Warren, Wilson, Johnson, Samuel, Koppen, Banta-Cain
2004 Wilfork, Watson

In 2005-2008, we had 1-5 contributers, depending on year
2005 Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel
2006 Maroney, Gostkowski, K. Smith, Andrews (a weak showing)
2007 Meriweather (we traded for Moss and Welker)
2008 Mayo, Wilhite, Slater

In 2009, we had 6 contributers and we are hoping for future contributions from McKenzie, Tate, Brace, Ohrnberger, Richard and Bussey. Butler and Vollmer seem to be top picks.
1) VOLLMER (starter by midseason)
2) BUTLER (nickel back and occasional returner)
3) EDELMAN (backup WR, backup returner)
4) PRYOR (backup DL)
5) INGRAM (deep snapper)
6) CHUNG (special teamer and #4 safety)
===================================

BOTTOM LINE
I would be fine with trading DOWN in a deep 2010 draft and HOPE to end up with six contributers. Unfortunately, we NEED to have at least TWO contributers from the draft: at OG and DE.

If they retain their 1st and 2nd round picks, I hope that a couple
could start and the other two contribute and eventually start. I dread
BB trading these picks for this year's version of Derrick Burgess.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm looking for 6-7 major contributors added to the team, at least 2 of whom will be "playmakers" and make a major difference:

Offense

1. A starting caliber RG to replace (or spell) Stephen Neal.
2. A #3 WR capable of being a #2 while Welker is out.
3. A starting caliber RB - either a big bruiser or an all-purpose guy. Possibly both.

Defense

4. A true SILB who can start opposite Mayo.
5. A strong side pass rusher.
6. A weak side pass rusher.

Obviously, not all can be added via the draft. Some would have to be filled via FA.

I think reasonably we could hope to fill 3-4 of these via the draft, with at least 1 being a difference maker. I would hope to get a starting caliber RG in round 2 of the draft. There's a lot of weak side depth, and getting a solid weak side pass rusher in round 2-3 is also reasonable. The other needs can be filled depending on who we get in FA.

Guys in the draft who I see as having an impact day 1 include Rolando McClain, Carlos Dunlap, Terrance Cody, CJ Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer. Guys through FA who I can see filling some of the above roles immediately include Karlos Dansby, Shawne Merriman, Antonio Bryant, Reggie Bush (if cut) and Willis McGahee (if cut).

In addition to the above, I'd like to get "developmental" depth (not counting on an immediate contribution) at the following positions:

- RT - I'm fine with Light at LT and Vollmer at RT for 2010, but I want someone to groom to start at RT in 2011 or 2012 when Vollmer moves to LT.
- TE - I'm fine with Watson and Baker. I think we could have gotten much more out of them. But I'd like a solid all-purpose developmental guy.
- 3-4 DE - I think Green is gone. I'm fine with Wright-Wilfork-Warren starting, but we need a true 3-4 DE for depth along with Brace and Pryor.

Finally, I'd like a real punter.

 

[mgteich]

First, let me be 100% clear, before I go into my normal over-length post. I think it is UNREASONABLE to expect 3-4 draftees to have a major impact. In the last great franchise decade, we accomplished that goal ONCE in 2003.
============================================================
I also think that that is likely that we will add 6-7 contributers. We can only hope for impact players, but I would think that a player or two from last year's draft will meet that definition.

First, I don't think that there is any choice with regard replacing Neal, Green, Welker (for at least half a year). The DE and OG will likey come from the draft, the free agent from free agency. All these three will need to be ready to start or have major reps in 2010.

Second, I suspect that there is little question that we will need to replace Thomas, Green and Watson.

So, we are already at SIX required contributers. We will NEED more if we don't bring back all of following: Faulk, Mankins, Wilfork, Bodden and Banta-Cain.

We will obviously add the normal number of depth and JAG free agents, and some developmental draft choices.

=====================

The question is what resources, if any, we will have after we do all of the above. While I also would like to have a power runner, ILB upgrade and an OLB upgrade, the resources for all are unlikely to be available.

Will this be ther year that we secure one impact high profile free agent? Perhaps. Perhaps we will get ONE or TWO. We absolutely need a corner and a wide receiver, so I can't see filling both of these AND a linebacker. Besides, Dansby is staying in ARIZ.

I'm looking for 6-7 major contributors added to the team, at least 2 of whom will be "playmakers" and make a major difference:

Offense

1. A starting caliber RG to replace (or spell) Stephen Neal.
2. A #3 WR capable of being a #2 while Welker is out.
3. A starting caliber RB - either a big bruiser or an all-purpose guy. Possibly both.

Defense

4. A true SILB who can start opposite Mayo.
5. A strong side pass rusher.
6. A weak side pass rusher.

Obviously, not all can be added via the draft. Some would have to be filled via FA.

I think reasonably we could hope to fill 3-4 of these via the draft, with at least 1 being a difference maker. I would hope to get a starting caliber RG in round 2 of the draft. There's a lot of weak side depth, and getting a solid weak side pass rusher in round 2-3 is also reasonable. The other needs can be filled depending on who we get in FA.

Guys in the draft who I see as having an impact day 1 include Rolando McClain, Carlos Dunlap, Terrance Cody, CJ Spiller and Jonathan Dwyer. Guys through FA who I can see filling some of the above roles immediately include Karlos Dansby, Shawne Merriman, Antonio Bryant, Reggie Bush (if cut) and Willis McGahee (if cut).

In addition to the above, I'd like to get "developmental" depth (not counting on an immediate contribution) at the following positions:

- RT - I'm fine with Light at LT and Vollmer at RT for 2010, but I want someone to groom to start at RT in 2011 or 2012 when Vollmer moves to LT.
- TE - I'm fine with Watson and Baker. I think we could have gotten much more out of them. But I'd like a solid all-purpose developmental guy.
- 3-4 DE - I think Green is gone. I'm fine with Wright-Wilfork-Warren starting, but we need a true 3-4 DE for depth along with Brace and Pryor.

Finally, I'd like a real punter.

 

[mayoclinic]

First, let me be 100% clear, before I go into my normal over-length post. I think it is UNREASONABLE to expect 3-4 draftees to have a major impact. In the last great franchise decade, we accomplished that goal ONCE in 2003.

We drafted 32nd in 2005 in the weakest draft of the decade, and still added 3 guys who were significant rookie contributors in Mankins, Hobbs and Kaczur. In 2006 we flubbed the draft but still added 2 solid contributors in Maroney (who had a solid rookie season splitting time with Dillon) and Gostkowski. In 2009 Vollmer was a solid contributor, Butler and Edelman borderline ones.

This is the deepest draft of the decade and we have 4 picks in the first 53. You really don't think we can add 3 draftees who can be solid contributors as rookies?

 

[mgteich]

If the standard is Maroney, then we could indeed find three contributers.

And just BTW, which of Mankins, Hobbs and Kaczur were impact players?

Also, 2005 was one of our solid drafts. Basically, what you are saying is that because this is a good draft, we should EXPECT to do as well as one of our best drafts between 2001 and 2008. Why should this be our expectation, except in the sense that we should always expect to win the Super Bowl?

And BTW, thank you for clarifying. If Butler does not meet the test for a solid contributer, then I do indeed think it is unreasonable to expect 3-4 solid contributers from this draft.

We drafted 32nd in 2005 in the weakest draft of the decade, and still added 3 guys who were significant rookie contributors in Mankins, Hobbs and Kaczur. In 2006 we flubbed the draft but still added 2 solid contributors in Maroney (who had a solid rookie season splitting time with Dillon) and Gostkowski. In 2009 Vollmer was a solid contributor, Butler and Edelman borderline ones.

This is the deepest draft of the decade and we have 4 picks in the first 53. You really don't think we can add 3 draftees who can be solid contributors as rookies?

 

[carolinatony]

I don't know if there is a certain number of players we can expect to contribute but I think we can have 2/3 helping/starting by mid season imo.

There are a few solid OG's mentioned on here before that if we grabbed one could be starting by mid season or rotating such as Mike Johnson or Mike Iupati .

I agree with others that WR may be to be addressed by FA but RB should not.
We need to have a lot of new blood fighting for jobs at LB/DE next year and hope one or two make a impact.

We can sign another pass rusher via FA as well so I do expect new starters by mid season or else it will be a long season.

This is a critical off season for us imo for the future and I belive(hope) BB and Co adddress this teams needs.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Mankins was one of the best picks in the decade. If yout think back to that time, the team had a glaring need, and filled the spot with the 32nd pick in the darft (we many thought was a reach) wiht a guy who has started since day 1, and is consistantly named to the Pro-Bowl. You really can't ask for much more than that in a draft pick.

Maroney has been his own worst enemy. Clearly he has the talent to be an everydown back (remember the final drive in the 2007 AFC Championship game, when he ran tough and iced the game). I think that it would tough to think that he is suddenly going to turn ti around, he just has not been consistant, and the fumbling at the goal line, is an absolute killer.

The Pats need to stop looking for bargins and contributors, and start finding some talent to fill some glaring needs. They have the ammunition, and the way this year worked out, all of their major rivals in the AFC (Colts, Bolts, Ravens, Jets) are now restricted as to how many free agents they can sign. The Jets basically have their 1st round draft pick and that's it.

I hope that BB has a plan (I think he got screwed last off-season thinking he was going to end up with either Peppers or Taylor, and wound up with neither, and then got behind and had to trade for Burgess) this off-season. He should go out and sgin at least 2 LBs in free-agency, bring in another TE, and a WR or two.

I would go out in Free Agency and...

Sign Julius Peppers, he can play OLB or DE, no brainer. Top notch talent.

Sign Dansbury/Gocong, or maybe Keith Bullock could assume the Jr. role.

Sign Dieon Branch once he gets cut.

I would much rather see a trade for Brandon Marshall (who will be a UFA if they sign a new CBA) than Breaston. I think that Ochocinco might also be a trade target.

Franchise Wilfork.

Re-sign Mankins, Goskowski, Green, Faulk.

Try and trade Light, Maroney, Thomas....


Then go to the draft, try and come out with at least..

RB ( I would love to see CJ Spiller, Lagarret Blount (or both!)
LB : I would trade one of the 2nd rounders to go up and grab McClain, or stay put and grab Dunlap, Brandon Spikes, or someone else who can start
OL: The kid from Idaho is a Mankins clone, although he will be gone by the time the 42 pick comes up.
WR: Plenty of NE WR out there in this draft, SHipley is another Welker edelmann clone, The kid from Bowling Green is a Troy Brown clone,

Then go for depth and/or phliers with the boatlaod of late rd picks.

 

[cstjohn17]

Good post, fans tend to overrate draft picks. A good 3rd round pick is a player who makes the team and eventually becomes a consistent backup.

Between free agency and the draft I expect 2-3 new starters and 3-4 backups.

 

[mayoclinic]

If the standard is Maroney, then we could indeed find three contributers.

And just BTW, which of Mankins, Hobbs and Kaczur were impact players?

Also, 2005 was one of our solid drafts. Basically, what you are saying is that because this is a good draft, we should EXPECT to do as well as one of our best drafts between 2001 and 2008. Why should this be our expectation, except in the sense that we should always expect to win the Super Bowl?

And BTW, thank you for clarifying. If Butler does not meet the test for a solid contributer, then I do indeed think it is unreasonable to expect 3-4 solid contributers from this draft.

First, 2005 was the weakest draft of the decade. Second, we drafted 32. I wouldn't expect an impact player out of that draft and that position. And yet we came away with a pro bowl starter Mankins (who was ranked the 7th top prospect from the draft in a retrospective review), and two guys who significantly upgraded their positions in Kaczur and Hobbs. Remember, we had Asante Samuel and Randall Gay as our starting CBs until Hobbs took over, and we had Russ Hochstein and Brandin Gorin as our starting LG and RT until Mankins and Kaczur displaced them.

As for Maroney, he split time with Dillon and ran for 745 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie, nearly matching Dillon's 812 yards. I consider that reasonably productive. I don't think anyone considered Maroney a bust based on his rookie season.

 

[sg14]

Why are you and alot of other folks in love with Spiller??

I past years I would have loved to pick up such a player, but after watching Brady get sacked, and our D not able to stop the run, all I want from our first 4 picks are large bodies with power. (OL, DE, LBs, maybe a power back)

And as far as getting a "substitute" for WW, I think that will be a FA along with a draft pick, why would BB risk that on solely on a draft pick? With the reliance that the vet will be up to speed quicker.

The Pats need to stop looking for bargins and contributors, and start finding some talent to fill some glaring needs. They have the ammunition, and the way this year worked out, all of their major rivals in the AFC (Colts, Bolts, Ravens, Jets) are now restricted as to how many free agents they can sign. The Jets basically have their 1st round draft pick and that's it.

Then go to the draft, try and come out with at least..

RB ( I would love to see CJ Spiller, Lagarret Blount (or both!)
LB : I would trade one of the 2nd rounders to go up and grab McClain, or stay put and grab Dunlap, Brandon Spikes, or someone else who can start
OL: The kid from Idaho is a Mankins clone, although he will be gone by the time the 42 pick comes up.
WR: Plenty of NE WR out there in this draft, SHipley is another Welker edelmann clone, The kid from Bowling Green is a Troy Brown clone,

Then go for depth and/or phliers with the boatlaod of late rd picks.

 

[Warren94]

I believe Peppers is on the wrong side of 30 and only wants to get paid.. flashes of brilliance and flashes of never seen again.



Try and trade Light, Maroney, Thomas....

I agree with Thomas... and maybe maroney because Shanahan thought he was a great pick but who is going to protect Brady's blind side?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

We have lots of 2010 needs. Some will be be met by re-signing our own. Some will be met through trades. Others will be met through free agent signings.

How many 2010 contributers is it reasonable to expect from the 2010 draft? How about how many contributers, including future contributers.

I think that we tend to expect too much.

Should we really expect to fill more holes than we did in 2009? Should we really trade 5 picks before the 6th for two in the 10-15 range in the HOPE that both will be top contributers in 2010?

====================================================
In the "great" drafts from 2001-2004, we ended up with 2, 4 or 6 contributers depending on the year. I include special teamers in my listings. I'm sure that I left out a couple. I have not listed UDFA's.

2001 Seymour, Light
2002 Graham, Branch, Green, Givens
2003 Warren, Wilson, Johnson, Samuel, Koppen, Banta-Cain
2004 Wilfork, Watson

In 2005-2008, we had 1-5 contributers, depending on year
2005 Mankins, Hobbs, Kaczur, Sanders, Cassel
2006 Maroney, Gostkowski, K. Smith, Andrews (a weak showing)
2007 Meriweather (we traded for Moss and Welker)
2008 Mayo, Wilhite, Slater

In 2009, we had 6 contributers and we are hoping for future contributions from McKenzie, Tate, Brace, Ohrnberger, Richard and Bussey. Butler and Vollmer seem to be top picks.
1) VOLLMER (starter by midseason)
2) BUTLER (nickel back and occasional returner)
3) EDELMAN (backup WR, backup returner)
4) PRYOR (backup DL)
5) INGRAM (deep snapper)
6) CHUNG (special teamer and #4 safety)
===================================

BOTTOM LINE
I would be fine with trading DOWN in a deep 2010 draft and HOPE to end up with six contributers. Unfortunately, we NEED to have at least TWO contributers from the draft: at OG and DE.

But how many were contributors in their rookie season?

If everybody wants this team improved by next season, then we need immediate returns.

Disregarding our FA's for a moment, here are the players available in this draft, and the positions they play, that can come in and start for us immediately or upgrade an existing position:

Suh at DE
Berry at FS
Okrung at ROT
Haden at CB or nickel/dime back
Davis at ROT
Cody at NT
McClain at ILB
Bulaga at ROT
Johnson at OG
Wooten at DE (Knee injury needs investigation)
Odrick at DE
Spiller at KR
Tebow at FB
Sapp at OLB/pass rusher
Shipley at kick holder
Zoltan at P

The first three will be off the board early. All the rest BB has a shot at them. But how much is he wiling to pay for going and get them.

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect at least one of our non factor '09 draftees to step up this year. Chung is the most likely but Tate (if healthy), Brace or McKenzie could too.

For the '10 draft, I expect no less than 2 contributors, honestly 3 as it's such a deep draft. With a 1 and three 2s, if we use them all I'd like to hit on 3 out of 4. By "contributors" I mean no less than what we got from Butler this year.