January 15 2010 Offseason and Mock

[mayoclinic]

posted my absurdly early first Mock Offseason and Draft was posted on December 1. Now, 6 weeks later, the 2009 NFL regular season is over and the deadline for juniors declaring has passed and we know just who will and won't be in the 2010 draft. A lot of things have happened, both good (making the playoffs, winning the division, improvement on the OL) and bad (lategate, 4th quarter meltdowns to Miami and Houston, Wes Welker's injury, and especially the blowout by the Ravens in the playoffs) in the past 6 weeks, some of which may affect our offseason plans. Hopefully the panic which followed the devastating loss to Baltimore has subsided a bit, and we can start to objectively evaluate the talent and commitment of this team and how to get pack to the promised land of an elite team.

Pats Offseason Needs

1. Leaders and playmakers anywhere. We really lacked players who stepped up to make the big plays, or to take charge of the team like in the good old days. We need some blue chip playmakers.
2. More imaginative and aggressive coaching, on both sides of the ball. I'd like to see an experienced OC, with O'Brien as QB coach only, and a more aggressive DC than Dean Pees.
3. The pass rush. We've got to be able to get defensive pressure on opposing QBs.
4. Bolster the OL. The right side of the line is just not adequate, and 4 of our top 6 linemen are 30 or older.
5. Bolster the DL. The loss of Seymour was a big one, and there was no major playmaking presence on the DL. The run defense was mediocre.
6. Depth at RB, WR and TE.

I think the Pats will be extremely aggressive this offseason. I suspect BB will bring in some coaching talent so that he doesn't have to do it all by himself, and that the Pats will be aggressive in FA and the draft. We're not restricted by the rules for an uncapped year. Mike Lombardi says we are currently one of the lowest committed cash teams in the NFL, and the Krafts have always been willing to spend up to the cap limit. I think that 2009 was unacceptable by Patriot standards, and that the team will be aggressive (but selective) in the offseason.

Coaching Staff:

Nick Caserio takes over as offensive coordinator. Floyd Reese takes over Scott Pioli's old role, if he doesn't leave for Seattle. If Reese leaves, Mike Lombardi, Phil Savage or George Kokinis is brought in to replace him. **** Jauron is brought in as defensive coordinator, working closely with Mike Patricia, with the plan of eventually making Patricia the DC in a few years (and WIllie McGinest the LB coach).

Free Agency:

I think the Pats will move to lock up their key players first, and then fill some key roles externally.

Internal FAs:

1. Pats franchise and then re-sign Vince Wilfork to a long term deal, and also re-sign UFAs, Leigh Bodden, and Ben Watson. This saves the Pats from addressing DT, TE and CB as major needs. I see Wilfork getting something like 5 years @45M, and Bodden something like 4 years at $25M. Watson could be let go if he won't sign a reasonable deal, and a UFA FA signed in his place.
2. Pats tender RFA K Stefan Gostkowski at the 1st round level. Hopefully he gets a long term extension.
3. Pats tender RFA OG Logan Mankins at the highest level (1st and 3rd). Hopefully he gets a long term extension.
4. The Pats need to lock up TBC as well, as it appears his extension from earlier this year was not valid.

Kevin Faulk has said he wants to be back, and I think he is re-signed for 1-2 years at reasonable cost. Stephen Neal is undecided about his future. He could retire, or it's possible the team could convince him to stay for another year at low cost.

I think that the Pats will likely let Pierre Woods go, or at best bring him in to fight for a roster spot. I suspect Jarvis Green will not be retained. They could re-sign Derrick Burgess for low money, but I personally would prefer other options (see below). I think Adalius Thomas won't be back with the team, one way or another. Some other players under contract could be cost/value decisions. I think the team will ruthlessly assess every play and every position in the offseason.

External FAs:

1. Pats sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) for 4 years at $28M. Bryant will be an ideal #2 behind Moss, and will take the pressure off of Edelman and Tate having to produce big time, or Welker rushing back. If Bryant is viewed as too risky, re-signing Deion Branch for relatively small money (maybe 3 years at $6M or thereabouts) would be an alternative.
2. Pats sign UFA LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona) for 5 years at $35M. Dansby will play SILB and allow Mayo to play his natural weakside, and can also play OLB. Pats could possibly re-sign OLB Derrick Burgess for 1-2 years if the cost is not high, or let him go.
3. Baltimore cuts RB Willis McGahee in a cost cutting move, and the Pats sign him to replace Fred Taylor (3 years at $14M would seem reasonable). McGahee will be 29, and at 6' 230# can provide the big bruising back that we need. I think he would start for us, whereas he would be a backup to Ray Rice in Baltimore.
4. Pats re-sign UFA DE/OLB Willie McGinest to provide some veteran leadership and help develop some young pass rushers. This is a low cost move akin to the Junior Seau situation. I could also see signing OLB Quentin Groves, if he is cut by Jacksonville (as expected) in the off-season. Groves can fight it out with Crable, Ninkovich, Bruce Davis and possibly Woods for depth at OLB. He probably has more upside than any of them, despite his struggles in Jacksonville, so I think it's worth bringing him in if he gets cut. Either of these would be low cost, low profile signings - if either one happens fine, if not, no big deal.

Pre-Draft Trades:

- Pats trade LB Adalius Thomas and a 2011 conditional pick to Kansas City for #68. Thomas is still one of the better OLBs in the league, and someone will bite.

Draft Day Trades:

- Pats trade #42, 47 and 118 (1000 points) Atlanta for #19 and #83 (1050 points). See below for discussion.

And now, on to the draft (continued in next post for size limitation reasons).

 

[mayoclinic]

2010 Mock Draft

Round 1

1. St. Louis: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Rams gets their cornerstone defensive player. Seems too high for Clausen or Bradford.

2. Detroit: Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
Wanted Suh but settle for McCoy. Russel Okung could be an option.

3. Tampa Bay: Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
Bucs miss out on the DT's, but get the top pass rushing DE in the draft. Form Vols assistant Raheem Morris is tempted by Eric Berry.

4. Washington: Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.
Washington plays it safe and takes the top OT on the board.

5. Kansas City: Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
Chiefs get the top defensive playmaker in the draft.

6. Seattle: Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Seattle replaces Walter Jones with another LT with absurd athletic ability.

7. Cleveland: Casey Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
Quinn and Anderson aren't the answer. Browns go to Notre Dame again for a QB, hoping for better success.

8. Oakland: Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Haden is a legitimate top 10 talent who will also be a workout warrior, and give the Raiders the best CB tandem in the NFL. But with Al Davis, you never know.

9. Buffalo (6-10): Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Edwards and Fitzpatrick aren't going to win many games. Bills gamble on Bradford. The Bills could go OT but Ralph Wilson wants a franchise QB to build around.

10. Denver (from Chicago): Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
Broncos get the cornerstone of their 3-4 defense.

11. Jacksonville: Everson Griffen, DE, USC
Jags wanted Morgan. USC alum Del Rio reaches for Griffen, who blows up the combine. Griffen and Harvey could be scary good, or the biggest pair of busts in the NFL.

12. Miami: Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma St.
Chad Henne needs some targets. A 3-4 OLB like Sergio Kindle could also be an option.

13. San Francisco: Anthony Davis, RT, Rutgers
Niners wanted Haden, but settle for a RT to pair opposite Joe Staley. Brian Bulaga could be an option here as well.

14. Seattle (from Denver): Brian Price, DT, UCLA
Pete Carroll knows how good Brian Price is, and gets a DT to rival Suh and McCoy. RB CJ Spiller will also get serious consideration, but Price is a top 10 talent. Carroll could go for Taylor Mays here as well.

15. NY Giants: Earl Thomas, S, Texas
With Kenny Phillips' career in doubt, Giants can't pass up the opportunity to add a playmaker comparable to Eric Berry. Brian Price would have been hard to pass up here if he had lasted.

16. San Francisco: Taylor Mays, S, USC
Niners missed out on Joe Haden, but get the athletic Mays instead.

17. Tennessee: Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee.
Titans get a giant to plug the hole left in the middle when Albert Haynesworth departed.

18. Pittsburgh: Terance Cody, DT, Alabama
Steelers need help on the OL, but defense comes first. With Casey Hampton likely gone they get a massive replacement in Cody.

***Trade: New England trades #42, 47 and 118 to Tampa Bay for #19 and 83.
19. New England (from Atlanta): CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
Atlanta needs CB help, but doesn't feel anyone warrants the pick here, so they trade back. Pats move up for the top offensive playmaker in the draft.

20. Houston: Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, USF
Houston desperately wanted secondary help but doesn't see the value, so they go after another freak to put on the DL opposite Mario Williams. Pierre-Paul has as much upside as anyone in the draft.

21. Tampa Bay: Cincinnati: Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Bengals get a huge weapon for Carson Palmer who should help spread the field.

22. New England: Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB, Florida
Dunlap has freakish athletic ability but falls due to inconsistency and off-field issues. Will take up Willie McG's old elephant role.

23. Green Bay: Brian Bulaga, OT, Iowa
The Pack sorely needs help to protect Aaron Rogers. DE/OLB Greg Hardy is an option here as well, to play the strong side opposite Clay Matthews.

24. Philadelphia: Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan
Graham will be a nice complement to Trent Cole.

25. Baltimore: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Ravens need help at CB, WR and TE, but can't pass up Spikes as the heir to Ray Lewis. Damien Williams or Goldon Tate could be options here as well.

26. NY Jets: Damien Williams, WR, USC
Williams is a smooth WR who runs pro routes, and should complement Braylon Edwards well. An OG like Mike Iupati is also an option.

27. Arizona: Sergio Kindle, OLB, Texas [/b]
With Karlos Dansby leaving Cards think Kindle fits their hybrid D nicely, and are elated to get him.

28. Dallas: Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Cowboys like massive linemen, and Iupati should fit in well.

29. Minnesota: Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi
Vikings want Dan Williams or Earl Thomas, but settle for a study pass rusher opposite Jared Allen.

30. Indianapolis: Charles Brown, OT, USC
Colts need LT help, and protecting Manning is a priority.

31. New Orleans: Sean Weatherspoon, LB, Missouri
Saints are elated to get Weatherspoon this late.

32. San Diego: Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Geogia Tech
With LT likely to retire, the Chargers get a big bruising back.

Round 2

33. St. Louis: Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati
With Bulger close to retirement and nothing behind him, Rams get a big strong armed QB to develop

34. Detroit: Chad Jones, S, LSU
Lions get a huge safety with a big upside, who should be terrific paired with Louis Delmas. Jones has first round ability, and should add another playmaker to an emerging defense.

35. Tampa Bay: Jahvid Best, RB, Cal
Bucs get a quick, elusive playmaker to open up their offense. OLB Navorro Bowman is also an option.

36. Washington: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Jason Campbell is done, and Washington needs a real McCoy at QB.

37. Kansas City: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
Pioli gets a pass rushing terror and a 3-4 OLB with a non-stop motor. QB pressure should generate opportunities for Eric Berry to make plays. Hughes and Adalius Thomas would give KC a huge upgrade at OLB.

38. Seattle: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Pete Carroll can't pass up the chance to figure out how to make a big time QB out of Tebow.

39. Cleveland: Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan
Cleveland needs help everywhere, but the secondary is clearly an area of need.

40. Oakland: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Oakland needs RT help badly, and Williams should be good.

41. Buffalo: Jason Fox, OT, Miami
Bills need help at OT. Fox is the best remaining option.

42. Atlanta (from New England, from Jacksonville): Navorro Bowman, MLB, Penn St.
The rangy Bowman should make a fine OLB next to Curtis Lofton.

43. Tampa Bay (from Chicago): Demaryius Williams, WR, Georgia Tech.
Bucs get a big, athletic WR with tremendous upside. Aurelius Benn might also be an option.

44. Miami: Ricky Sapp, DE/OLB, Clemson
Parcells gets a fast, athletic speed rushing 3-4 OLB. Eric Norwood or a DE like Jared Odrick might also be options here.

45. San Francisco: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St..
Solid 5 technique guy who could have gone higher. Arthur Jones is also an option here.

46. Denver: Arthur Jones, DE, Syracuse
Another solid 5 technique player to anchor their 3-4.

47. Atlanta: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
Falcons get perhaps the 2nd best CB in the draft after Joe Haden.

48. NY Giants: Aaron Hernandez, TE, Florida
In a bit o a surprise, the Giants get an athletic young TE who can both block and catch. A DE is always an option.

49. Carolina: Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
Carolina needs playmakers at WR. LaFell is solid value. Golden Tate or Rejus Benn could be options.

50. Houston: Golden Tate, WR, Notre Dame
Houston needs a receiver to pair with Johnson, and are astounded to get Tate this late.

51. Pittsburgh: Maurkice Pouncey, OG/C, Florida
Pittsburgh upgrades the interior of their line with the versatile and powerful Pouncey.

52. Kansas City (from Atlanta): Mardy Gilyard, WR, Cincinnati
Chiefs need a receiver to pair opposite Bowe. Gilyard is a terrific all-purpose playmaker.

53. New England: Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, UMass
Pats get a massive interior lineman to replace Stephen Neal, with versatility to also play RT.

54. NY Jets: Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forrest
Jets need a CB to pair with Revis. Ghee should do the trick nicely.

55. Baltimore: Rob Gronkowski, TE, Arizona
Ravens are torn between Gronkowki and Rejus Benn.

56. Arizona: Rejus Benn, WR, Illinois
Cardinals replace Anquan Boldin with a similar style WR.

57. Green Bay: Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno St.
Pack needs depth at RB.

58. Philadelphia: Reshad Jones, S, Georgia
Philly need a SS to play next to Demps. Their secondary has suffered with the loss of Brian Dawkins.

59. Cincinnati: Eric Norwood, DE/OLB, South Carolina
Norwood is a steal here, and can play SAM for the Bengals with Maualuga moving inside and Rivers at WLB.

60. Dallas: Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech.
Dallas gets a playmaker for the secondary.

61. Minnesota: Syd'Quan Thompson, CB, Cal
Solid CB prospect to upgrade the Vikings' secondary.

62. Indianapolis: D'Anthony Smith, DT, LSU
Indy can always use a DT. Smith could fit in well.

64. New Orleans: Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi
With Reggie Bush likely gone, Saints reload with an explosive playmaker in McCluster.

64. San Diego: Corey Wootten, DE, Northwestern
Chargers neen DE help, and will pair Wootten with NW alum Jonathan Casillas.

 

[mayoclinic]

Round 3

65. St. Louis: Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri
Rams need depth at WR. Alexander has great size and productivity.

66. Detroit: Mike Johnson, OG, Alabama
Lions get some line help to protect Matt Stafford.

67. Tampa Bay: Nate Allen, S, Florida
Bucs need a rangy FS who is good value this late.

***Note: The Washington Redksins forfeited their 3rd round pick by exercising it in the 2009 Supplemental Draft.

68. New England (from Kansas City): Austen Lane, DE, Murray State
Small shcool weakside DE/OLB with the agility of a DeMarcus Ware.

69. Oakland: LaMarr Houston, DT, Texas
Raiders DL needs help.

70. Philadelphia (from Seattle): Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
The Eagles desperately need a big workhouse back.

71. Cleveland: Vince Oghobasse, DE/DT, Duke
Browns get a big run-stuffing 3-4 DE.

72. Buffalo: Kyle Calloway, OT, Iowa
Solid RT prospect to help shore up their offensive line.

73. Miami: Boo Robinson, DT, Wake Forrest
With Jason Ferguson 35, Miami needs to develop a successor at DT.

74. Jacksonville: Rennie Curren, LB, Georgia
Curran is undersized but tenacious and makes plays all over the field.

75. Chicago: Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota
The Bears badly need WR help for Cutler. Decker would have gone much higher prior to his injury.

76. NY Giants: Daryl Washington, ILB, TCU
Washington makes plays all over the field, and will eventually take over for Antonio Pierce.

77. Tennessee: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St.
Tennessee needs depth at CB, and Robinson was considered a borderline 1st round prospect by some.

78. Carolina: Desmond Brizcoe, WR, Kansas
Panthers can't pass up the talented Brizcoe here, to add depth at WR.

79. San Francisco: Sean Canfield, QB, Oregon St.
Depth at QB behind Aaron Smith.

80. Denver: Jevan Snead, QB, Mississippi
Denver needs to hedge its bets with Orton. Snead needs time to develop, but is a good project for McDaniels.

81. Houston: Anthony Dixon, RB, Mississippi
Houston gets a big, bruising back to pair with Steve Slayton, for their version of Thunder and Lightning.

82. Pittsburgh: Brandon Lang, DE/OLB, Troy
Steelers like to keep 3-4s in their pipeline. James Harrison will be 32.

83. New England (from Atlanta): Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillsdale
Pats get another 6'8" 315# OT. They hit a home run with Sebastian Vollmer, and hope that Veldheer will be another.

84. Cincinnati: Tyson Ayualu, DT, Cal
Bengals need depth at DT. Ayualu is fantastic value.

85. Oakland (from New England): Carlton Mitchell, WR, USF
Al Davis goes for another raw physical specimen.

86. Green Bay: Trevard Lindley, CB, South Carolina
The Pack needs CB depth behind Woodson and Harris.

87. Philadelphia: Jeff Owens, DT, Georgia
Provides nice depth at DT.

88. Cleveland (from NY Jets): Micah Johnson, ILB, Kentucky
Browns get a hard-nosed 3-4 SILB.

89. Baltimore: Amari Spievey, CB, Iowa
Baltimore desperate needs CB help, and lucks out big time. Spievey is terrific value.

90. Arizona: Shaun Lauavau, OG, Arizona
Cards take a local prospect to upgrade their interior line.

91. Dallas: Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas
Cowboys take a local product and hope he can be a Wes Welker clone.

92. Minnesota: Mike Neal, DT, Purdue
With Pat Williams aging, the Vikings need depth at DT.

93. Indianapolis: Jermaine Cunningham, DE, Florida
Just what Indy needs, another undersized, speedy, playmaking DE.

94. New Orleans: Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise St.
More depth in the secondary can't hurt.

95. San Diego: Darrell Stuckey, S, Kansas
Chargers made a mistake with Clinton Hart.

Possible 4th round players (many of whom could easily go in the 3rd round) include:

QB Dan LeFevour
RB: Joe McKnight
WR: Antonio Brown, Mike Williams
TE: Ed ****son, Jimmy Graham, Anthony McCoy, Dennis Pitta
OT: Selvish Capers, Chris Marinelli, Sam Young, Adam Ulatowski
OG/C: Jon Asamoah, Matt Tennant, Zane Beadles
DT: Abe Koroma
DE/OLB: George Selvie, Thaddeus Gibson, Jason Worilds, O'Brien Schofield
LB: Sean Lee, Roderick Muckelroy, Pat Angerer, AJ Edds
S: Kam Chancellor, Major Wright
CB: Dominique Franks, Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, Perrish Cox, Myron Lewis

Pats Offseason Draft and Roster Changes

Full Pats 7 Round Mock

1(19) CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson (5'11", 195#, 4.30)
1(22) Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB, Florida (6'6", 270#, 4.65)
2(53) Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, UMass (6'5", 328#, 5.20)
3(68) Austen Lane, DE/OLB, Murray St. (6'6", 260#, 4.60)
3(83) Jared Veldheer, OT, Hillsdale (6'8", 315#, 4.80)
5-7 Clifton Geathers, DE, Clemson (6'8" 290#, 4.95) - big man with high upside who has the potential to be good at the 5-technique
5-7 Tony Moeaki, TE, Iowa (6'4", 250#, 4.85) - good all-purpose TE and special teams contributor
5-7 Freddie Barnes, WR, Bowling Green (6', 205#) - incredibly productive college WR who just makes plays
5-7 Zoltan Mesko, P, Michigan (6'5", 230#) - an upgrade over Chris Hanson

I've listed 4 late round picks of guys that I'd like to see the Pats target. I understand the Pats have no 5th round pick right now, but they should have some supplemental picks and enough ammo to move around if necessary.

Absurdly Early Possible 53 Man Roster

QB(2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
RB(5): CJ Spiller, Lawrence Maroney, Willis McGahee, Sammie Morris, Kevin Faulk
WR(6): Randy Moss, [Wes Welker], Antonio Bryant/Deion Branch, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Sam Aiken, Freddie Barnes (assuming Welker is at least on PUP)
TE(3): Ben Watson, Chris Baker, Tony Moeaki
OT(4): Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, Nick Kaczur, Jared Veldheer, Nick Kaczur/Mark LeVoir
OG/C(5): Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Vladimir Ducasse, Stephen Neal/Rich Ohrnberger, Dan Connelly

DL(6): Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Mike Wright, Ron Brace, Myron Prior, Clifton Geathers
DE/OLB(2): Carlos Dunlap, Austen Lane
OLB(3): Tully Banta-Cain; 2 of the following: Derrick Burgess/Willie McGinest/Quentin Groves/Rob Ninkovich/Shawn Crable/Bruce Davis (depending on which UFAs are brought back/in)
ILB(4): Jerod Mayo, Karlos Dansby, Gary Guyton, Tyrone McKenzie
S(4): Brandon Meriweather, Patrick Chung, Brandon McGowan, James Sanders
CB(5): Leigh Bodden, Darius Butler; 3 of the following: Shawn Springs/Jonathan Wilhite/Terrance Wheatley/Kyle Arrington

K: Stephan Gostkowski
P: Zoltan Mesko/Chris Hanson
LS: Jake Ingram
Specialist: Matt Slater/Brad Lockett/Kyle Arrington

Comments

It's still very early, and the purpose of this mock is more to provoke thought than to predict what will actually happen. But I've tried to capture some things which I'd like to see, and factor in some of the recent response to polls and suggestions from the board:

1. Re-sign most of our key free agents. I want to use the draft to upgrade talent, not to plug holes left by FA. I think the FO will be very aggressive here.
2. Fill some key holes in FA - especially WR, where we already have a lot of youth at the position and don't really need more. I'd also like to see a true SILB next to Jerod Mayo.
3. Try to get some blue chip talent via the draft. .
4. Focus on the OL and pass rush as key areas. I think that our long term OL could be devestating with Vollmer and Mankins on the left side and Ducasse and Veldheer on the right side. Dunlap and Lane are physical freaks who could wreak havoc in a year or two at DE or OLB.

I'd personally be very pleased with this kind of offseason and draft, and I think this would significantly upgrade the talent on our roster in all 3 areas. Offensively we would add a top playmaker in Spiller, depth at WR with Bryant or Branch, and depth and long-term talent on the OL. Defensively we would upgrade the pass rush with a major infusion of talent, and would solidify the LB corps and the middle of the defense with Karlos Dansby, who would also add veteran leadership. I haven't addressed the core DL per se, but I think that Dunlap would get a lot of playing time at DE from the outset. Like Spiller, I think BB would find creative ways to use his talents to maximum effect. On special teams, Spiller and Brandon Tate would give us as much talent in the return game as any team in the NFL, and we would hopefully upgrade our punting game.

This would be a very talented and deep roster, with some tough cuts. I don't see any room for Pierre Woods or Eric Alexander, despite their ST contributions, which I think could be replaced by rookies Austen Lane and Tony Moeaki. Shawn Crable, Rob Ninkovich and Bruce Carter would probably have to compete for the last 1-2 OLB spots depending on UFA signings. And I'm not sure how to keep Matt Slater, Kyle Arrington and Brad Lockett, all of whom have been excellent on special teams. Some tough choices to make in Training Camp. But overall, I think this would be a huge upgrade over 2009, and should give us the talent to be an elite team. With a more aggressive DC, I think we could be much better on D.

The Pats are well positioned for 2011 with 3 first day picks, including a possible top 10 pick in what I see as a top-heavy draft. Assuming a rookie salary scale, this is quite attractive. I'd like to see us get a shutdown CB like Patrick Peterson or an impact 3-4 DE like Cameron Heyward or pass rusher like Robert Quinn, along with possibly a top WR (AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin or Michael Floyd) to eventually succeed Randy Moss. We have the ammo to trade up if we so desire.

That's it for now. Hope you all like it. My next effort will be after the dust has settled from FA and the combine. We should have a much better idea by then of where we stand.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

amazing effort and great work as always. i feel honored that you used my mcgahee idea. i'd be elated with an offseason like this. i love the spiller pick and i prefer hardy to dunlap but i like the dunlap pick as well. two blue chippers in the first round.

im not the biggest fan of bryant but i would take him. the willie mack idea is great. he'd be a leader and could help develop our olb.

i feel the same way about 2011. i want peterson and one of green jones floyd baldwin, preferably green.

great job, looking forward to your next offseason mock. you should email a copy of this to BB

 

[Metaphors]

Interesting exercise. Comments...

1) Willie McGinest isn't walking through that door.

2) Spiller/Maroney/Faulk = 3 players for 2 roles. Spiller wouldn't be my choice, but if you are going to draft him (and trade up to boot), throw him out there and let him play.

3) Worry about Ducasse being too tall and too slow to play guard for the Pats.

4) Jared Veldheer from Hillsdale? Sounds like a Simpsons character. Since he is going to the combine, he likely won't be too far under the radar...particularly with Vollmer looking like a real find. If he plays well in the All-Star games and tests well at the combine, he may not last until 83. OT is deep at the top of this draft, but after the top 6 or so, there are a lot of question marks.

5) Love the theme at rush LB with Dunlap and Lane. Big, tall and fast. They would be great in the "walkaround LB" formation on 3rd down. Bring them from different angles and get their hands up. Major disruption.

6) Belichick is morally and emotionally unable to acquire a WR named "Freddie"

 

[mgteich]

I applaud your hard work. I'm sure that much here will stimulate discussion.

However, I suggest that you have this post destroyed after a couple of months. I suspect that you will be very, very disappointed with our offseason compared to this plan.

posted my absurdly early first Mock Offseason and Draft was posted on December 1. Now, 6 weeks later, the 2009 NFL regular season is over and the deadline for juniors declaring has passed and we know just who will and won't be in the 2010 draft. A lot of things have happened, both good (making the playoffs, winning the division, improvement on the OL) and bad (lategate, 4th quarter meltdowns to Miami and Houston, Wes Welker's injury, and especially the blowout by the Ravens in the playoffs) in the past 6 weeks, some of which may affect our offseason plans. Hopefully the panic which followed the devastating loss to Baltimore has subsided a bit, and we can start to objectively evaluate the talent and commitment of this team and how to get pack to the promised land of an elite team.

Pats Offseason Needs

1. Leaders and playmakers anywhere. We really lacked players who stepped up to make the big plays, or to take charge of the team like in the good old days. We need some blue chip playmakers.
2. More imaginative and aggressive coaching, on both sides of the ball. I'd like to see an experienced OC, with O'Brien as QB coach only, and a more aggressive DC than Dean Pees.
3. The pass rush. We've got to be able to get defensive pressure on opposing QBs.
4. Bolster the OL. The right side of the line is just not adequate, and 4 of our top 6 linemen are 30 or older.
5. Bolster the DL. The loss of Seymour was a big one, and there was no major playmaking presence on the DL. The run defense was mediocre.
6. Depth at RB, WR and TE.

I think the Pats will be extremely aggressive this offseason. I suspect BB will bring in some coaching talent so that he doesn't have to do it all by himself, and that the Pats will be aggressive in FA and the draft. We're not restricted by the rules for an uncapped year. Mike Lombardi says we are currently one of the lowest committed cash teams in the NFL, and the Krafts have always been willing to spend up to the cap limit. I think that 2009 was unacceptable by Patriot standards, and that the team will be aggressive (but selective) in the offseason.

Coaching Staff:

Nick Caserio takes over as offensive coordinator. Floyd Reese takes over Scott Pioli's old role, if he doesn't leave for Seattle. If Reese leaves, Mike Lombardi, Phil Savage or George Kokinis is brought in to replace him. **** Jauron is brought in as defensive coordinator, working closely with Mike Patricia, with the plan of eventually making Patricia the DC in a few years (and WIllie McGinest the LB coach).

Free Agency:

I think the Pats will move to lock up their key players first, and then fill some key roles externally.

Internal FAs:

1. Pats franchise and then re-sign Vince Wilfork to a long term deal, and also re-sign UFAs, Leigh Bodden, and Ben Watson. This saves the Pats from addressing DT, TE and CB as major needs. I see Wilfork getting something like 5 years @45M, and Bodden something like 4 years at $25M. Watson could be let go if he won't sign a reasonable deal, and a UFA FA signed in his place.
2. Pats tender RFA K Stefan Gostkowski at the 1st round level. Hopefully he gets a long term extension.
3. Pats tender RFA OG Logan Mankins at the highest level (1st and 3rd). Hopefully he gets a long term extension.
4. The Pats need to lock up TBC as well, as it appears his extension from earlier this year was not valid.

Kevin Faulk has said he wants to be back, and I think he is re-signed for 1-2 years at reasonable cost. Stephen Neal is undecided about his future. He could retire, or it's possible the team could convince him to stay for another year at low cost.

I think that the Pats will likely let Pierre Woods go, or at best bring him in to fight for a roster spot. I suspect Jarvis Green will not be retained. They could re-sign Derrick Burgess for low money, but I personally would prefer other options (see below). I think Adalius Thomas won't be back with the team, one way or another. Some other players under contract could be cost/value decisions. I think the team will ruthlessly assess every play and every position in the offseason.

External FAs:

1. Pats sign UFA WR Antonio Bryant (Tampa Bay) for 4 years at $28M. Bryant will be an ideal #2 behind Moss, and will take the pressure off of Edelman and Tate having to produce big time, or Welker rushing back. If Bryant is viewed as too risky, re-signing Deion Branch for relatively small money (maybe 3 years at $6M or thereabouts) would be an alternative.
2. Pats sign UFA LB Karlos Dansby (Arizona) for 5 years at $35M. Dansby will play SILB and allow Mayo to play his natural weakside, and can also play OLB. Pats could possibly re-sign OLB Derrick Burgess for 1-2 years if the cost is not high, or let him go.
3. Baltimore cuts RB Willis McGahee in a cost cutting move, and the Pats sign him to replace Fred Taylor (3 years at $14M would seem reasonable). McGahee will be 29, and at 6' 230# can provide the big bruising back that we need. I think he would start for us, whereas he would be a backup to Ray Rice in Baltimore.
4. Pats re-sign UFA DE/OLB Willie McGinest to provide some veteran leadership and help develop some young pass rushers. This is a low cost move akin to the Junior Seau situation. I could also see signing OLB Quentin Groves, if he is cut by Jacksonville (as expected) in the off-season. Groves can fight it out with Crable, Ninkovich, Bruce Davis and possibly Woods for depth at OLB. He probably has more upside than any of them, despite his struggles in Jacksonville, so I think it's worth bringing him in if he gets cut. Either of these would be low cost, low profile signings - if either one happens fine, if not, no big deal.

Pre-Draft Trades:

- Pats trade LB Adalius Thomas and a 2011 conditional pick to Kansas City for #68. Thomas is still one of the better OLBs in the league, and someone will bite.

Draft Day Trades:

- Pats trade #42, 47 and 118 (1000 points) Atlanta for #19 and #83 (1050 points). See below for discussion.

And now, on to the draft (continued in next post for size limitation reasons).

 

[mayoclinic]

I suggest that you have this post destroyed after a couple of months. I suspect that you will be very, very disappointed with our offseason compared to this plan.

I never suspect our offseason to go according to plan. Prediction with the Pats is a useless exercise. But I think that it still makes sense to try to identify needs and come up with some rational plans.

The bottom line is:

1. We have no OC, a vacancy at DC, Scott Pioli left less than a year ago, and Floyd Reese appears to be leaving. Our FO and coaching staff needs major revamping.

2. We have a ton of potential FAs / RFAs, more dead wood than in the past, and less chemistry. There will be some major decisions about who to keep and who to let go.

3. Even if we keep many of the pieces, there are more major holes than we are used to, and anyone who believes that we just need to tweak a few things to be a major SB competitor has rose colored glasses on.

We've been the best organization in football for the past decade. Either we let it all slip away, or we will have to do something aggressive this offseason. There are some big holes that have to be addressed. All I've tried to do is present a coherent analysis and approach to addressing those holes. If BB and Kraft want to fire the whole team with a few exceptions and bring in 50 cheap but hungry free agents to play with guts and intensity, that's fine with me. That would be better than the inconsistent, lazy, sloppy, predictable and often boring team we had this year, which didn't play anywhere near it's talent level.

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting exercise. Comments...

1) Willie McGinest isn't walking through that door.

I don't really expect him to, though I wouldn't mind it if he did - we could use his leadership, and his experience might accelerate the development of some youngsters. It would be a cheap pickup, as would Quentin Groves if he is cut by Jacksonville, which I would consider a more likely scenario.

2) Spiller/Maroney/Faulk = 3 players for 2 roles. Spiller wouldn't be my choice, but if you are going to draft him (and trade up to boot), throw him out there and let him play.

I think that an all-purpose playmaker like Spiller could have tremendous value as an offensive weapon. He's not likely to be a 25-30 carry back, no matter who drafts him. I'd be happy to let him split carries with a more physical back. If Maroney can play that role, fine. If not, give it to someone else.

3) Worry about Ducasse being too tall and too slow to play guard for the Pats.

Logan Mankins and Stephen Neal are 6'4", Ducasse 6'5". Not sure how the extra inch is a major factor. Ducasse currently plays LT, so I would hope he's not too slow to play guard. But if you prefer Mike Johnson or someone else, I'm willing to listen.

4) Jared Veldheer from Hillsdale? Sounds like a Simpsons character. Since he is going to the combine, he likely won't be too far under the radar...particularly with Vollmer looking like a real find. If he plays well in the All-Star games and tests well at the combine, he may not last until 83. OT is deep at the top of this draft, but after the top 6 or so, there are a lot of question marks.

I love the sound of "Vollmer and Veldheer" at OT. Veldheer has a combine invite and could go earlier, but 83 is still pretty high for a division II guy. Vollmer's success may cause some folks to reach, but at this juncture I think 83 is a reasonable place for him to go. Unlike Vollmer, I would think it would take at least a year before he's ready to be a significant contributor, just because of his level of prior competition.

5) Love the theme at rush LB with Dunlap and Lane. Big, tall and fast. They would be great in the "walkaround LB" formation on 3rd down. Bring them from different angles and get their hands up. Major disruption.

BB keeps saying he wants tall pass rushers with certain athletic abilities. Well, I've given him 2 of them. Do I really expect him to take them? No. I don't know what the heck he really wants - maybe he'd prefer midgets who can run under the OT's legs and grab the QB until help arrives. But I think we could cause a lot of havoc with those 2 guys.

6) Belichick is morally and emotionally unable to acquire a WR named "Freddie"

He took one named "Chad" and one named "Bethel". Hmm, maybe I shouldn't use that argument.

Thanks for the feedback. Good points.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

1. While Dansby would be a great addition, it probably won't happen because he's the only relevant free agent for the Cardinals.
2. You usually have it together, but the McGinest idea is ridiculous.
3. If Antonio Bryant signs with the Pats or any team for that matter, he is probably the most talented journeyman in the NFL.
4. McGahee would be a nice addition, but I'm sure he would want to sign somewhere in Florida.
5. Peppers needs to be a Patriot.
6. Groves would be a nice-cheap-low risk experiment for the Pats.

 

[Mark Morse]

Outstanding projection ...

Spiller as an eventual replacement for Faulk. Not sure I'd bring back Maroney. McGinest as a player or coach is exciting idea.

I don't think Barnes will last that long, he doesn't have the outstanding speed, but he is reliable.

It may also be time to think about grooming a replacement for Brady ... Is Dan Lefervour a possibility?

BB likes to draft OT and convert them to OG. Veldheer and Ducasse would fit that kind of selection.

Lots can change between now and draft day but this is a heck of a projection!

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm fine with the Dunlap pick. I can't get my arms around trading up for Spiller, I see what he has but he also only averaged 16 or so carries per game in college so I'm going to pass on that trade.

I would happily take Demaryius Williams or Tate at 42, Maurkice Pouncey at 47 and McCluster at 53.

Although you could talk me into defense at one of those spots also.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'm quite a fan of McCluster for the Faulk role, btw. His season carries weren't huge but his last 6 games were against Arkansas, Auburn, Tenessee, LSU, Mississippi St. and Oklahoma State.

In those games he averaged 24 carries for 168 (he had over 1,000 yards in those 6 games) for an average of 7.00 YPC against good SEC competition. He also had 28 catches in the 6 games. He's tiny but runs tough and I think he'd be OK in the limited Faulk role.

And, yeah, I'll be honest, I want to be able to say to the opponents "you've been McCluster F*cked" for the next 10 years.

 

[furley]

Here's my mock draft and free agent wishful thinking list. Obviously, these choices aren't concrete and are subject to availability since players will rise and fall accordingly.


Mock Draft

Round One

#22 - Sergio Kindle OLB

Round Two

#42 or #44 - Vladimir Ducasse OT
#47 or #48 - Corey Wooton DE
#53 - Mike Johnson OG

Round Four

#117 - Eric Decker WR

Round Six

#181 - Jeron Mastrud TE

Round Seven

#214 - Joique Bell RB
#216 - Jared Veldheer OT


Free Agents

1st Choice - Ray Edwards DE
2nd Choice- Will Smith DE

1st Choice - Karlos Dansby ILB
2nd Choice - D'Qwell Jackson ILB

1st Choice - Kevin Walter WR
2nd Choice - Domenik Hixon WR
3rd Choice - Jason Avant WR

1st Choice - Mike Bell RB
2nd Choice - Jerious Norwood RB
3rd Choice - Chester Taylor RB

1st Choice - Anthony Fasano TE
2nd Choice - Bo Scaife TE
3rd Choice - Tony Scheffler TE


Resign

Vince Wilfork DL
Stephen Gostkowski PK
Logan Mankins OG
Kevin Faulk RB
Sam Aiken WR


Trade

Randy Moss (third round pick 2010)
Laurence Maroney (third round pick 2010 or 2011)
Matt Light (third or fourth round pick 2010)
Adalius Thomas (fourth or fifth round pick 2010 or 2011)
Terrence Wheatley (fourth round pick 2010 or 2011)
Shawn Crable (fifth or sixth round pick 2010 or 2011)

 

[BritPat]

I love it Mayo apart from the first pick. You know why too.

If we're after taking a RB in FA, why not try and grab Leon Washington from the Jets? You get a jitter-bug who can return kicks without spending a first round pick on him. If you want to really tear up the RB's, you can jettison Morris, Taylor and Law Firm, and then add Washington and maybe someone like Mike Bell or LenDale White, a true inside runner. Or you could make a big play for Ronnie Brown. He would likely cost a first and a third though.

If we could do all of what you said, maybe some of the above, but without trading any picks and instead picking BPA in the first and someone like Golden Tate in the second round, I'd probably cream my pants.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. While Dansby would be a great addition, it probably won't happen because he's the only relevant free agent for the Cardinals.
2. You usually have it together, but the McGinest idea is ridiculous.
3. If Antonio Bryant signs with the Pats or any team for that matter, he is probably the most talented journeyman in the NFL.
4. McGahee would be a nice addition, but I'm sure he would want to sign somewhere in Florida.
5. Peppers needs to be a Patriot.
6. Groves would be a nice-cheap-low risk experiment for the Pats.

Dansby is almost certain a UFA. He was franchised twice previously by the Cardinals, which means that his franchise tag will be that of a QB if they were to tag him again - over $16M. It's pretty much accepted that he is gone at this point, unless they somehow work out a long term deal in the next 3 weeks, which seems very unlikely, as they've had 3 years to do so.

The McGinest idea doesn't seem any more ridiculous to me than bringing back Junior Seau. Veteran leadership is badly needed on defense. I wouldn't expect much on field productivity.

Peppers as a Patriot seems much more ridiculous to me. The amount of money spent on a player who disappears for long stretches of time and who is on the wrong side of 30 would would be ridiculous.

 

[mgteich]

You are so disappointed with being division champs that you would be fine with firing almost everyone. Perhaps we should discuss the offseason more seriously after the Super Bowl.

I never suspect our offseason to go according to plan. Prediction with the Pats is a useless exercise. But I think that it still makes sense to try to identify needs and come up with some rational plans.

The bottom line is:

1. We have no OC, a vacancy at DC, Scott Pioli left less than a year ago, and Floyd Reese appears to be leaving. Our FO and coaching staff needs major revamping.

2. We have a ton of potential FAs / RFAs, more dead wood than in the past, and less chemistry. There will be some major decisions about who to keep and who to let go.

3. Even if we keep many of the pieces, there are more major holes than we are used to, and anyone who believes that we just need to tweak a few things to be a major SB competitor has rose colored glasses on.

We've been the best organization in football for the past decade. Either we let it all slip away, or we will have to do something aggressive this offseason. There are some big holes that have to be addressed. All I've tried to do is present a coherent analysis and approach to addressing those holes. If BB and Kraft want to fire the whole team with a few exceptions and bring in 50 cheap but hungry free agents to play with guts and intensity, that's fine with me. That would be better than the inconsistent, lazy, sloppy, predictable and often boring team we had this year, which didn't play anywhere near it's talent level.

 

[mayoclinic]

You are so disappointed with being division champs that you would be fine with firing almost everyone. Perhaps we should discuss the offseason more seriously after the Super Bowl.

Don't you recognize sarcasm when you see it? And my OP was a very serious attempt to address the offseason. I'm not sure what waiting another 3 weeks would do.

Seriously though, division champs or not, this team did NOT play to it's talent level this year, something that I can't recall ever happening under BB. Yes, there were major flaws (lack of a pass rush) and injuries, but the team was more inconsistent, sloppy in execution, and prone to fundamental mistakes even late in the season than any BB team that I can remember since 2001. And the effort was lacking. We lost to Denver in 2005, but it's hard to fault the effort of Ben Watson running down Champ Bailey. We didn't show any fight at all against Baltimore. We lay down in 2 of the biggest games of the season - the Monday night game against NO and the playoff game against Baltimore - and blew at least 4 2nd half leads of 10 points or more, including two 4th quarter meltdowns. We lacked heart, we lacked effort, we lacked leadership, and we lacked the ability to win. If you think that going 10-6 and squeeking out the division so that we could go 1 and done makes all of that irrelevant, fine. I don't.

No, of course I don't want the Pats to gut the whole team. I've said elsewhere that I'm optimistic for the future, and that I think we have as solid a nucleus as any team in the NFL. I've tried to come up with a rational and realistic (aggresive, but not ridiculous) plan to address what I see as the major needs. You said "good job, but don't be disappointed when the actual offseason fails to measure up". I don't have any specific expectations, but I do expect the FO to be aggressive in shaking up the team, and that includes bringing in some guys with leadership, heart and guts, all of which were lacking this year. I doubt BB shares your rosy self-congratulations that winning the division makes everything fine.

 

[Jimke]

Don't you recognize sarcasm when you see it? And my OP was a very serious attempt to address the offseason. I'm not sure what waiting another 3 weeks would do.

Seriously though, division champs or not, this team did NOT play to it's talent level this year, something that I can't recall ever happening under BB. Yes, there were major flaws (lack of a pass rush) and injuries, but the team was more inconsistent, sloppy in execution, and prone to fundamental mistakes even late in the season than any BB team that I can remember since 2001. And the effort was lacking. We lost to Denver in 2005, but it's hard to fault the effort of Ben Watson running down Champ Bailey. We didn't show any fight at all against Baltimore. We lay down in 2 of the biggest games of the season - the Monday night game against NO and the playoff game against Baltimore - and blew at least 4 2nd half leads of 10 points or more, including two 4th quarter meltdowns. We lacked heart, we lacked effort, we lacked leadership, and we lacked the ability to win. If you think that going 10-6 and squeeking out the division so that we could go 1 and done makes all of that irrelevant, fine. I don't.

No, of course I don't want the Pats to gut the whole team. I've said elsewhere that I'm optimistic for the future, and that I think we have as solid a nucleus as any team in the NFL. I've tried to come up with a rational and realistic (aggresive, but not ridiculous) plan to address what I see as the major needs. You said "good job, but don't be disappointed when the actual offseason fails to measure up". I don't have any specific expectations, but I do expect the FO to be aggressive in shaking up the team, and that includes bringing in some guys with leadership, heart and guts, all of which were lacking this year. I doubt BB shares your rosy self-congratulations that winning the division makes everything fine.

We should know by the middle of March what the Patriot's intentions
are. The bare minimum is that they will franchise Wilfork and tender offers to Gostowski, Mankins, and Woods. Then the fun begins. Will they
re-sign any of the following: Banta-Cain, Bodden, Burgess, Faulk, Green, Hanson, Neal,or Watson? If they let most of these players walk, will
they also refuse to pay big bucks to sign any first tier free agents?
I hope they surprise me and give me a few key free agents for my
March birthday.

 

[mayoclinic]

You are so disappointed with being division champs that you would be fine with firing almost everyone. Perhaps we should discuss the offseason more seriously after the Super Bowl.

Why would waiting 3 weeks make any difference?

Realisticaly, I think there are 3 ways we can go in the offseason:

1. We can basically "stand Pat", resign as much of the team as possible, fill a few gaping holes, and tweak a few things. This view emphasizes that we won the division this year, and believes we only need a few minor changes to be a serious contender. I don't like this option. I think we will go 9-7 or 8-8 if this happens, and lose the division next year. The Jets and Dolphins are getting better, Sanchez and Henne should develop, and I think there's as good a chance we regress as there is that we improve.

2. We can gut the team and go into full rebuilding mode. I don't like this option either. Getting rid of Moss at fire sale prices, for example, is not a move I would advocate.

3. We can attempt to identify a solid nucleus of the team and aggressively build around it using a rational and practical approach. That's what I've tried to outline in the OPs. There are lots of alternatives. The specific players aren't important. If you don't like CJ Spiller, get Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster. Or bring in Reggie Bush. Or get a big bruising back like Jonathan Dwyer. If you don't like Vlad Ducasse, maybe Mike Johnson is the answer. If Karlos Dansby can't be had, trade up for Rolando McClain, or get a lesser guy to be a true thumper in the middle.

But the holes are there, like it or not, and they have to be addressed. The running game was inadequate, the right side of the OL was inadequate, the 3rd WR options were less than optimal (and will be felt more strongly with the possible loss of Welker for part or all of 2010), the pass rush was inadequate, Mayo was out of position at SILB and didn't make plays the way he did as a rookie, the kick return game gave us terrible field position, Hanson wasn't very good as a punter and cost us more field position, etc. And we lacked leadership, heart, toughness and consistency. Fail to address those issues and we won't go very far next year.

 

[mgteich]

We should know about all the re-signs before free agency begins. We will also know the 2010 rules by then. Once free agency begins, it is unlikely that any of our own UFA's will sign with us.

And yes, then the fun begins.

We should know by the middle of March what the Patriot's intentions
are. The bare minimum is that they will franchise Wilfork and tender offers to Gostowski, Mankins, and Woods. Then the fun begins. Will they
re-sign any of the following: Banta-Cain, Bodden, Burgess, Faulk, Green, Hanson, Neal,or Watson? If they let most of these players walk, will
they also refuse to pay big bucks to sign any first tier free agents?
I hope they surprise me and give me a few key free agents for my
March birthday.