Playoff formula

[mayoclinic]

Interesting to see that the Jets and Cowboys both won yesterday with a similar formula: stifling team defense, a strong running game, and mistake free QB play.

The Jets finished with the fewest PPG in the NFL, the Cowboys 2nd. The Cowboys had the 4th best run defense in the NFL, the Jets finished 8th. The Jets finished led the league in rushing at 172 YPG (which was almost their exact total against Cincinnati), the Cowboys finished 7th, and chewed up Philly for over 190 yards rushing. And both Romo and Sanchez, QB's known for making mistakes in big games, played conservatively with no major mistakes.

Nice formula for the playoffs. And the Pats play the Ravens, who have the #4 rushing attack in the NFL, the #3 scoring defense, the #5 rushing defense, and a very capable QB in Flacco. Seems like a similar situation. Not making any predictions, mind you, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens try a similar approach. If the Ravens are able to run the ball effectively, stop the run effectively, and Flacco doesn't make major mistakes, it will be a difficult game.

Meanwhile we have the #12 rushing attack in the NFL and the #13 run defense. That doesn't really inspire confidence. But we do have a QB who figures in any GOAT discussion.

 

[DarrylS]

OTOH there is only a 17 ypg between the #4 Baltimore Rushing D and the #11 Pats Run D... 93.2 vs. 110.5

The Ravens Rushing O(#5) is 137.5 YPG and the Pats(#12) is 120.0

The difference is either one bigger play not saying it is statistically insignificant, but the numerical difference is not all that big...

Not to say that the Jets win was not significant, but did not think the Bengals were that good either... the Jets look very good.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Gotta be impressed by Sanchez. Didn't think he had it in him. I've been spouting all week that he doesn't take care of the football, makes dumb mistakes, bla, bla and last night he played perfect NFL Playoff quarterbacking. Took care of the ball, made some plays....

They will give Indy or SD some problems in the divisionals. Hopefully, it's Indy.

 

[mayoclinic]

Gotta be impressed by Sanchez. Didn't think he had it in him. I've been spouting all week that he doesn't take care of the football, makes dumb mistakes, bla, bla and last night he played perfect NFL Playoff quarterbacking. Took care of the ball, made some plays....

They will give Indy or SD some problems in the divisionals. Hopefully, it's Indy.

Sanchez and Romo are two of the more mistake-prone QB's in the league, and both played flawlessly yesterday. Avoid major mistakes and turnovers on offense, pound the ball, play crushing defense ... sounds like a formula to me.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I have to believe, the Bengals kicker provided the mistakes yesterday. The missed kick late was the worst. Had he made it, you probably would have seen an onside kick and a different result.

And, one, just one mistake by Sanchez probably would have openned the flood gates of mistakes by him.....

 

[fgssand]

Interesting to see that the Jets and Cowboys both won yesterday with a similar formula: stifling team defense, a strong running game, and mistake free QB play.

The Jets finished with the fewest PPG in the NFL, the Cowboys 2nd. The Cowboys had the 4th best run defense in the NFL, the Jets finished 8th. The Jets finished led the league in rushing at 172 YPG (which was almost their exact total against Cincinnati), the Cowboys finished 7th, and chewed up Philly for over 190 yards rushing. And both Romo and Sanchez, QB's known for making mistakes in big games, played conservatively with no major mistakes.

Nice formula for the playoffs. And the Pats play the Ravens, who have the #4 rushing attack in the NFL, the #3 scoring defense, the #5 rushing defense, and a very capable QB in Flacco. Seems like a similar situation. Not making any predictions, mind you, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens try a similar approach. If the Ravens are able to run the ball effectively, stop the run effectively, and Flacco doesn't make major mistakes, it will be a difficult game.

Meanwhile we have the #12 rushing attack in the NFL and the #13 run defense. That doesn't really inspire confidence. But we do have a QB who figures in any GOAT discussion.

Things I know with a PS would like to see:

I know our run "D" would be much better if you show me only games with both warren & wilfork (like today).

I know our QB is the best today.

I know our running game has caught fire over the past month.

I know Pats win today - easier than most think.

PS - I would like to see how well the sanchise will do coming from behind.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

OTOH there is only a 17 ypg between the #4 Baltimore Rushing D and the #11 Pats Run D... 93.2 vs. 110.5

The Ravens Rushing O(#5) is 137.5 YPG and the Pats(#12) is 120.0

The difference is either one bigger play not saying it is statistically insignificant, but the numerical difference is not all that big...

Not to say that the Jets win was not significant, but did not think the Bengals were that good either... the Jets look very good.

And Baltimore will usually make more than 17 ypg worth of mistakes in penalties and mental errors than NE.

 

[mgteich]

If a team is built like the jets or the cowboys, the quarterback doesn't need to be the star to win consistently. A solid game by the quarterback is enough to get a win. A good or great game means a rout.

We are a passing team, like Indy and SD and NO. We have a different formula, a different allocation of talent and resources.

Over time, I believe that the formula of the jets and cowboys is better. HOWEVER, that is only my opinion. Over the past ten years, the colts and pats ahve made the quarterback-centered game work.

Interesting to see that the Jets and Cowboys both won yesterday with a similar formula: stifling team defense, a strong running game, and mistake free QB play.

The Jets finished with the fewest PPG in the NFL, the Cowboys 2nd. The Cowboys had the 4th best run defense in the NFL, the Jets finished 8th. The Jets finished led the league in rushing at 172 YPG (which was almost their exact total against Cincinnati), the Cowboys finished 7th, and chewed up Philly for over 190 yards rushing. And both Romo and Sanchez, QB's known for making mistakes in big games, played conservatively with no major mistakes.

Nice formula for the playoffs. And the Pats play the Ravens, who have the #4 rushing attack in the NFL, the #3 scoring defense, the #5 rushing defense, and a very capable QB in Flacco. Seems like a similar situation. Not making any predictions, mind you, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Ravens try a similar approach. If the Ravens are able to run the ball effectively, stop the run effectively, and Flacco doesn't make major mistakes, it will be a difficult game.

Meanwhile we have the #12 rushing attack in the NFL and the #13 run defense. That doesn't really inspire confidence. But we do have a QB who figures in any GOAT discussion.

 

[Rob0729]

Gotta be impressed by Sanchez. Didn't think he had it in him. I've been spouting all week that he doesn't take care of the football, makes dumb mistakes, bla, bla and last night he played perfect NFL Playoff quarterbacking. Took care of the ball, made some plays....

They will give Indy or SD some problems in the divisionals. Hopefully, it's Indy.

I credit the gameplan. Since week 3, whenever Sanchez throws for more than 20 passes, the Jets lose the game and every loss but one Sanchez threw more INTs than TDs. The Jets used Sanchez very sparingly last night (he only passed 15 times). That is how they best use the guy.

Unfortunately for the Jets, if the defense can't slow down Manning and company on offense next week, they are going to have to allow Sanchez to air it out more and that is when he makes the costly turnovers.

I am a believer that defense wins championships, but poor QB play can kill a team. The Bengals could have won last night if Palmer wasn't so mediocre. AHe missed a lot of wide open receivers yesterday.

As long as the Jets can keep scores low and run the ball, Sanchez will be an asset. The second they have to start throwing the ball 25-30 times in a game, he becomes a liability.

 

[Rob0729]

I have to believe, the Bengals kicker provided the mistakes yesterday. The missed kick late was the worst. Had he made it, you probably would have seen an onside kick and a different result.

And, one, just one mistake by Sanchez probably would have openned the flood gates of mistakes by him.....

I do think the Bengals beat themselves as much as the Jets beat them. I think both Palmer and Graham were as much of MVPs for the Jets as most of their players.

If Graham made the kick, I don't know if we would have seen a different outcome, but it would have been far close than it was. The Bengals had two shots in the fourth quarter to make it a game and they blew both of them.

 

[BelichickFan]

I don't buy the formula thing, there's many ways to win a game. And the Dallas offense goes through Romo IMO, not the running game.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't buy the formula thing, there's many ways to win a game. And the Dallas offense goes through Romo IMO, not the running game.

Yeah, I see what you mean. Obviously a one dimensional and predictable offense and ineffective defense with no pressure is just as good an approach as a solid balanced attack with a dominant running game, physical defense, and mistake-free QB play. Sure seems to be working well against the Ravens.

As for Dallas, when the Cowboys let Romo be a gunslinger they lose. When they play aggressive defense and pound the ball, and he plays a limited role and doesn't make mistakes, they win.