Replacing Players Who Might Leave

[mgteich]

I believe that we have a fine team with the current 53 players plus players on IR. It is the best talent in our division and the 3rd best in the AFC. As we go into the offseason, the first thing we need to do is to replace any players that are leaving. Obviously, we may have the option of re-signing them. Obviously, we do not want to lose production by replacing these players with those who produce less in 2010.

The front office decisions on these players and free agent additions will determine priority of draft needs. I don't see how it wouldn't. We could absolutely NEED an OG, DE, RB, TE, LB or two or NOT. For example, how high a priority need is DE if both Green and Burgess are re-signed? It would seem that Belichick would have made the decision with regard to how to fill these positions. As with SS and OT in 2009, a re-signing needn't mean that the position won't be filled, it just moves the position off the critical list.

It has been Belichick's goal to go into a draft with no immediate needs that must be filled. He doesn't always succeed. However, he has succeeded with going into draft with only one critical need. In 2009, I don't think that there was a critical need.

OFFENSE
MANKINS will be an RFA and given top tender. He'll stay or we'll have picks to replace him.
NEAL will be a UFA.
FAULK will be a UFA
WATSON sill be a UFA

DEFENSE
WILFORK can be franchised but if he balks, he would end up being traded for a high pick.
GREEN is a UFA who played over 50% of the defensive reps.
BURGESS is a UFA who played more than 50% of the defensive reps.
THOMAS is under contract but could be cut.
BODDEN is a UFA

SPECIAL TEAMS
GOSTKOWSKI will be an RFA and give a 2nd tier tender. He'll stay or we'll have a 1st.
HANSON is a UFA.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

In 2009, I don't think that there was a critical need.

Every team has a critical need as no team is stacked at any position in the NFL. The lack of pass rush has killed the Patriots for the past several years and will probably be the reason why they lose in the playoffs this season.

OFFENSE
MANKINS will be an RFA and given top tender. He'll stay or we'll have picks to replace him.
NEAL will be a UFA.
FAULK will be a UFA
WATSON sill be a UFA

I'm assuming 2010 is uncapped. With that said, Mankins is retained, Neal walks (age, injury concerns), Faulk walks (age, need to get younger) and Watson walks (doesn't want to re-sign).

DEFENSE
WILFORK can be franchised but if he balks, he would end up being traded for a high pick.
GREEN is a UFA who played over 50% of the defensive reps.
BURGESS is a UFA who played more than 50% of the defensive reps.
THOMAS is under contract but could be cut.
BODDEN is a UFA

Wilfork is retained, Green is let go, Burgess is let go, hopefully Thomas is cut, and Bodden is retained.

SPECIAL TEAMS
GOSTKOWSKI will be an RFA and give a 2nd tier tender. He'll stay or we'll have a 1st.
HANSON is a UFA.

Gost stays, Hanson is let go.

Because 2010 is probably going to be uncapped, there aren't too many big name free agents the Pats can go after. If the Pats want to address the pass rush, Julius Peppers is probably their only option.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Both starting OGs, 3rd down RB(blitz pickup specialist) and a TE, leaves a huge hole in the running game.

Oddly the potential replacement are extremely weak. Orhnsburger is less than 300 pounds and Connelly is nothing to write home about.

Clearly OG is an area where BB needs to resign Mankins, no upgrade available in the draft or FA. He probably needs to spend a day one draft pick on the position if he can not resign Neal.

At TE Watson is serviceable, but given the draft position and skill set never seems to have reached the elite level at his position. However there are no upgrades available in the draft. BB may need to look at FA.

For Faulk, he clearly has lost several steps and is in rapid decline. There are several options available in the draft that can upgrade what he brings skill wise to an offense, but none that can match his blitz pickup ability.

On defense. If Bodden wants a big pay day, BB will probably let him walk. If Bodden is reasonable with contract terms,i could see BB bringing him back.

Everything else depends on what happens with Wilfork. I personally think he winds up with Miami and we get two first round picks at best; a third round comp pick at worst.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Everything else depends on what happens with Wilfork. I personally think he winds up with Miami and we get two first round picks at best; a third round comp pick at worst.

No, the worst case scenario is the Pats sign more qualifying FAs than they lose, and get no comp pick at all. [If you lose three Pro Bowlers and replace them with four slightly-higher-than-JAG players, you get no comp picks.]

In any case, I wouldn't go there, as no one in the NFL seriously expects the Pats to allow Wilfork to just walk away scot-free.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

No, the worst case scenario is the Pats sign more qualifying FAs than they lose, and get no comp pick at all. [If you lose three Pro Bowlers and replace them with four slightly-higher-than-JAG players, you get no comp picks.]

In any case, I wouldn't go there, as no one in the NFL seriously expects the Pats to allow Wilfork to just walk away scot-free.

Very true, but I trust BB would not bungle an opportunity to stockpile another draft pick.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Very true, but I trust BB would not bungle an opportunity to stockpile another draft pick.

Getting a 3 in 2011 instead of a 1+ in 2010 would be an even bigger bungling.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Getting a 3 in 2011 instead of a 1+ in 2010 would be an even bigger bungling.

It usually takes two parties to say yes to a trade. If BB cannot find a dance partner, then he may need to pocket the 3rd round pick, or he could avoid this entire scenario altogether and just resign Wilfork to a long term deal and NOT ruin a relationship by franchising Wilfork.

PS: The irony here is that if BB drafts Mt. Cody, think of the marketing opportunities and dollars the Patriots could make off the ready made nickname that "Mt. Cody" brings to the table. It could mean we would have enough dollars to resign Wilfork longterm or maybe even hire a QB coach!