Draft Strategy

[Metaphors]

Would you be shocked if Belichick did not draft an outside linebacker
this year until the 4th or later rounds? I wouldn't. Linebacker seems
to be his blind spot.

I would be shocked if Belichick doesn't draft a DE/OLB, pass rush guy in the first 2 rounds. Having 4 picks and the litany of those types of players in their draft range...the value would likely be too great to pass up.

 

[mgteich]

I would not be shocked. I have long ago stopped being shocked when Belichick fails to draft outside linebackers. He has chosen to bring them in through free agency: Vrabel, Colvin, Thomas and Banta-Cain. I was surprised when a 3rd was used for Crable. The shock in 2009 was that Belichickn didn't bring in another high-power OLB through free agency or trade. In the end, Burgess was an expensive consolation prize.

However, I would certainly be shocked if we didn't draft a DE in the first two rounds. I wouldn't be suprosed if we traded UP for a defensive lineman.

Would you be shocked if Belichick did not draft an outside linebacker
this year until the 4th or later rounds? I wouldn't. Linebacker seems
to be his blind spot.

 

[jsull87]

So, in order to not be laughed at, the patriots should play it safe?

Well obviously you glossed over the reasoning and took one phrase out of my response... so yeah so they don't get laughed at thats exactly it. well done

Do you think we played it safe when trading back to 10 and selecting jerrod mayo?

 

[mgteich]

No, I don't think it was safe to trade down and pick Mayo. BTW, I have not criticized either strategy.

It is NOT always safe to trade down. Specifically, with regard to Mayo, Belichick took a very serious risk when his player was there at 7. He traded down, secured an extra pick and paid the player less. He won his bet. He wouldn't have been so celebrative if someone else traded up and drafted mayo at 8 or 9. We had a critical need for an ILB. Belichick took the risk and won.

In 2009, Belichick had at least one player he wanted who he thought would be available at 23. He had the 34, 47 and 58 for his other needs. Belichick had decided that we badly needed a #3 receiver, and one who perhaps would get more and more reps, especially when either Moss or Welker eventuially left. He chose NOT to move a couple of spots to make sure of getting his player. Harvin was picked by someone else at 22, and we are still waiting for our #3 WR, although Belichick did end up using a 3rd and a 7th and sign two free agents to try to meet that need. So this time lost his bet. He ended up trading down and used his extra picks for the two wideouts he did end up drafting.

Well obviously you glossed over the reasoning and took one phrase out of my response... so yeah so they don't get laughed at thats exactly it. well done

Do you think we played it safe when trading back to 10 and selecting jerrod mayo?

 

[patsfaninpa]

I can see a trade up this year. Not before our 1st. But, to early in 2nd. I think we desperately need a 3-4 de and an olb. From looking at players available. I can see us sitting at 25 and seeing 2 guys we like. Someone like J.Odrick - de - PSU. And, one of the olb's; Kindle,Graham,Hughes. We trade 42 and 48 to move up to late 1st or early 2nd. Fill both needs. Can prob get a 3rd rounder back from looking at points chart. Fills our two biggest holes. Still gives us a couple of picks for offense, ol(own 2nd) and wr(3rd we got in trade proposed). I'd wait on a rb. Maybe, a 4th.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

No, I don't think it was safe to trade down and pick Mayo. BTW, I have not criticized either strategy.

It is NOT always safe to trade down. Specifically, with regard to Mayo, Belichick took a very serious risk when his player was there at 7. He traded down, secured an extra pick and paid the player less. He won his bet. He wouldn't have been so celebrative if someone else traded up and drafted mayo at 8 or 9. We had a critical need for an ILB. Belichick took the risk and won.

In 2009, Belichick had at least one player he wanted who he thought would be available at 23. He had the 34, 47 and 58 for his other needs. Belichick had decided that we badly needed a #3 receiver, and one who perhaps would get more and more reps, especially when either Moss or Welker eventuially left. He chose NOT to move a couple of spots to make sure of getting his player. Harvin was picked by someone else at 22, and we are still waiting for our #3 WR, although Belichick did end up using a 3rd and a 7th and sign two free agents to try to meet that need. So this time lost his bet. He ended up trading down and used his extra picks for the two wideouts he did end up drafting.

Please site sources for the Harvin speculation.

 

[carolinatony]

I would be shocked if Belichick doesn't draft a DE/OLB, pass rush guy in the first 2 rounds.


I would not. History tell me BB will trade back our #1 for another pick next year. Does anyone believe we will take 3 players in the 2nd round? I don't.
We may end up with 2 ones next year, 3 two's and 3 three's in 2011. Great but no help for next year.
If Watson leaves maybe we may take Gresham from Oklahoma who is good but since we don't use our TE's a OL would be better. I'm sure DL will be a pick and who knows what the other pick is.
Since Wes will surely miss the start of the season and maybe more, WR may be a option.

What we need are 2 LB's, a DE and 2 OL's with one a OG but I will watch and see like the rest of you.

 

[mgteich]

Does google not work on your computer. There was wide speculation, but here's one.

Patriots, Jets tried to beat Vikings to Harvin - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

Please site sources for the Harvin speculation.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Does google not work on your computer. There was wide speculation, but here's one.

Patriots, Jets tried to beat Vikings to Harvin - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

Ah, so we're back to the crowing HC of the Min Vik story. Your commentary seemed to take this as gospel witnessed first hand in the NE draft room - I guess you could have been there?

Anywho, Harvin is old news, Spiller might be an option in this draft class. Dexter McCluster is much smaller, but in that zone.

 

[WhiZa]

I would be shocked if Belichick doesn't draft a DE/OLB, pass rush guy in the first 2 rounds.

I bet you said the same thing the past 3 years. I know I have.

 

[Sciz]

1. CJ Spiller
2a. Mike Johnson
2b. Austen Lane
2c. Tony Moeaki

Anybody have any problem with this? Sure, no McClain, and I assume Bodden stays, but this fills needs and gets quality players.

 

[jsull87]

No, I don't think it was safe to trade down and pick Mayo. BTW, I have not criticized either strategy.

It is NOT always safe to trade down. Specifically, with regard to Mayo, Belichick took a very serious risk when his player was there at 7. He traded down, secured an extra pick and paid the player less. He won his bet. He wouldn't have been so celebrative if someone else traded up and drafted mayo at 8 or 9. We had a critical need for an ILB. Belichick took the risk and won.

Fair enough point

 

[mgteich]

No, not gospel, just old news.

I agree with Spiller and McCluster being solid options for us.

Ah, so we're back to the crowing HC of the Min Vik story. Your commentary seemed to take this as gospel witnessed first hand in the NE draft room - I guess you could have been there?

Anywho, Harvin is old news, Spiller might be an option in this draft class. Dexter McCluster is much smaller, but in that zone.

 

[mayoclinic]

1. CJ Spiller
2a. Mike Johnson
2b. Austen Lane
2c. Tony Moeaki

Anybody have any problem with this? Sure, no McClain, and I assume Bodden stays, but this fills needs and gets quality players.

Spiller slipping to us in the 1st would certainly be good value, but I think you're reaching slightly for the other guys. I'd consider Mike Johnson anywhere from 2b on and Tony Moeaki doesn't seem like a 2nd round prospect to me at all right now. I'd be happy with him in the 4th though.aki

I'd be fine with the following:

1. CJ Spiller
2a. Carlos Dunlap/Greg Romeus/Greg Hardy (possibly with a tradeup), or possibly a 3-4 DE like Corey Wootten
2b. Best available OG, including Mike Johnson
2c. Austen Lane
4. Tony Moeaki

I'd also try to pick up a 3rd round pick and get a 3-4 DE

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Ah, so we're back to the crowing HC of the Min Vik story. Your commentary seemed to take this as gospel witnessed first hand in the NE draft room - I guess you could have been there?

Anywho, Harvin is old news, Spiller might be an option in this draft class. Dexter McCluster is much smaller, but in that zone.

As I've pointed out before, accepting this story as true requires believing that BB would sabotage his own draft by blabbing to a player ahead of time, and assuming the player would just keep his mouth shut. I just don't buy it.

 

[cstjohn17]

There is often two very different approaches to the draft. One group seems to want to trade up for two key players. Others want value and to fill lots of roster spots. These approaches are not generally consistent with each other.

I suspect that as we get closer, many will propose giving a 1st, 2nd and a 4th to move up for McLain. I suspect some of the same posters might also propose trading two of our seconds to move up for a DE or an OLB.

==========================================
Would you trade our rounds 1 through 4 (five picks) for 2 top players as the jets did when they drafted revis and harris in 2007? or as they did last year to get sanchez and green?

The jets have taken a very different approach to the draft than the patriots have, at least in 2007 and 2009. In the 2009 draft, they had only a 6th rounder left after the top two, a 6th and 7th after drafting revis and harris.

I think that this is an important persepctive since we all also wanted revis and harris and were not willing to give up our whole draft to get them.

The jets have quietly built an impressive team, one who is not quite a "real" playoff tem this year. However, they have the best defense and the best running game in the league. If Sanchez turns out to be even an average quarterback (he isn't near that yet), we will have a top contender in our division for years to come. What they have needed has been a reasonable coach which they now have.

The Jets put all their chips into the middle and then hit a 10 run home run. I prefer quality over quantity because once you get past the top 50 players in most cases as street free agent is just as good as your 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks (highly replaceable). The problem is if you miss, given the Pats shaky record I don't think they swing for the fences.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I don't see much chance of a trade up in the 1st round as BB lives the concept of value - and there is not much $$ value for first round players (until a rookie cap is implemented). Probably pick at our assigned 1st round spot or move down. However, we have seen time and time again BB move around (and up) in the 2nd round. So even as he is unpredictable with POSITIONS that he targets high in the draft (ex. Mankins, & TE's) - he does live and breath the mantra of draft VALUE. So I don't see a move up in the first round regardless of the scenario.

As far as strategy (say -Jets) of sacraficing several picks for the few chosen ones (targeted) - I would say my advice would depend on the capped / uncapped situation. If is is capped 2010 season then we will probably lose several starters to FA of the following eligible (Mankins, Gos, Watson, Wilfork, Bodin, several more). Which means we need several high round draft picks to hopefully pick up a few starting caliber players. In which case hopefully use all our 2's and first rounder instead of dealing those picks into the following 2011 draft.

However, if it is a un-capped season (looking likely) then Pats will still have control over Mankins, Gos as well as a second franchaise tag to apply to keep control over say Wilfork and another. In this scenario, then I suggest the Jets strategy to sacrifice picks for a few key high draftees - for the 'get us over the top' idea of another ring. Problem is - one of our missing key areas is pass rush and lately the rookie 'studs' are more miss than hits even in the first two rounds. Or they take several years to develop. So not so easy even with high draft picks to find a stud pass rusher ready to dominate in their rookie season. Any stud pass rusher FA's available this off-season?

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I don't see much chance of a trade up in the 1st round as BB lives the concept of value - and there is not much $$ value for first round players (until a rookie cap is implemented).

I see tremendous opportunity for BB to move up in this draft. This is a very deep draft. There are going to guys with third round grades available well into the fifth round. Teams know this and the smart ones will multiple holes in their roster will want to stockpile draft picks.

BB can approach Denver or San Fran and make a move because there will be guys with 1st round grades available in the second round.

If BB wants to do like the Jets and target 2 players early, Mt. Cody and McClain for example, then this is a draft to do that because he is loaded with second round picks and can even use our 2011 1st as well, since we have Oakland's.

 

[ayjackson]

Spiller slipping to us in the 1st would certainly be good value, but I think you're reaching slightly for the other guys. I'd consider Mike Johnson anywhere from 2b on and Tony Moeaki doesn't seem like a 2nd round prospect to me at all right now. I'd be happy with him in the 4th though.aki

I'd be fine with the following:

1. CJ Spiller
2a. Carlos Dunlap/Greg Romeus/Greg Hardy (possibly with a tradeup), or possibly a 3-4 DE like Corey Wootten
2b. Best available OG, including Mike Johnson
2c. Austen Lane
4. Tony Moeaki

I'd also try to pick up a 3rd round pick and get a 3-4 DE

I like this, except I'd prefer to draft a WR in the first and draft a RB on day three to compete with the Chinashop Quartet (Taylor, Morris, Maroney, Faulk).

 

[BritPat]

Joique Bell!