FootballOutsiders: Julian Edelman -- Nawt just anuthah Welkah!

[lamafist]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Cover-3: Wild-Card Edition

by Doug Farrar

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Julian Edelman -- Nawt just anuthah Welkah!

So, the first thing we should do before we discuss Julian Edelman, the former Kent State quarterback taken in the seventh round of this year's draft by the Patriots, is to dispense with the notion that he's a Wes Welker clone. Yeah ... short, white, slot receiver, blah blah blah. But when Welker went down with a season-ending knee injury early in the first quarter against the Texans, New England didn't have to trot out the "In Case of No Welker, Break Glass" case -- Edelman was outside the bunch formation on the play that took Welker out of the game. This is not a speed-impaired dink-route guy with no other options. He wasn't invited to the Combine, but the 3.91 20-yard shuttle he ran at his Pro Day would have beaten every receiver time in Indianapolis.

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The rest of the article breaks down a few plays from the Texans game that illustrate Edelman's strengths and weaknesses, and how they differ from Welker's.

It also has a lot of good stuff about some Baltimore offensive lineman who haven't big-budget Hollywood blockbusters mad about their lives.

It's a great read. I highly recommend following the link above.

 

[Bertil]

The guy is 6'0"...That's not exactly short, even by NFL standards. This "Welker Clone" crap will die once he gets the opportunity to define himself and now the stage is set!

 

[ctpatsfan77]

The guy is 6'0"...That's not exactly short, even by NFL standards. This "Welker Clone" crap will die once he gets the opportunity to define himself and now the stage is set!

From his own mouth, he's only 5'10.5".

And I suspect he'll never escape the Welker comparisons. Heck, the Pats might as well give him 83A or 82.5 as his roster number. . . .

 

[Kontradiction]

The guy is 6'0"...That's not exactly short, even by NFL standards. This "Welker Clone" crap will die once he gets the opportunity to define himself and now the stage is set!

Exactly. And he's speedy enough to beat single coverage. Why he wasn't used on the other side of Moss instead of Aiken is beyond me. Maybe because he's a rookie? Not so sure. I always thought that Aiken would probably be a better fit as the "other" slot receiver in 4-WR sets.

 

[emoney_33]

Exactly. And he's speedy enough to beat single coverage. Why he wasn't used on the other side of Moss instead of Aiken is beyond me. Maybe because he's a rookie? Not so sure. I always thought that Aiken would probably be a better fit as the "other" slot receiver in 4-WR sets.

Well beyond any other route-running or knowing the offense/plays of which we do not know, we do know that Sam Aiken is a very good blocker.

 

[Kontradiction]

Well beyond any other route-running or knowing the offense/plays of which we do not know, we do know that Sam Aiken is a very good blocker.

Yes. Though he leaves a lot to be desired as a receiver, I cannot take away from his blocking skills. Though, I'm not sure how much of a dropoff there would be with Edelman in there.

 

[lamafist]

Exactly. And he's speedy enough to beat single coverage. Why he wasn't used on the other side of Moss instead of Aiken is beyond me. Maybe because he's a rookie? Not so sure. I always thought that Aiken would probably be a better fit as the "other" slot receiver in 4-WR sets.

Edelman was an option QB in college -- this is his first year running routes and catching passes.

Can he track a ball over his shoudler while running straight down field? Can he run a 9-yard out, and be ready to catch a frozen rope right after he cuts?

A guy who's going to be playing wideout opposite Moss needs to be able to run the kind of routes that get you open outside the numbers, and that's not anything like Edelman ever did in college.

That's why, at this point, the best use for him is to get the ball in his hands, and let him work in space.

 

[DarrylS]

Did not know he was this fast..

 

[jczxohn1]

One difference between Edelman and Welker has to be 6 yrs of dedicated weight room work. Welker's forearms are bigger than Edelman's upper arms. With more work, Edelman will have to be careful of ball security.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

One difference between Edelman and Welker has to be 6 yrs of dedicated weight room work. Welker's forearms are bigger than Edelman's upper arms. With more work, Edelman will have to be careful of ball security.

Really?

 

[drew4008]

What are they doing in that picture? lol

 

[West Philly Patriot]

What are they doing in that picture? lol

umm man love lol

 

[smg93]

Can he track a ball over his shoudler while running straight down field? Can he run a 9-yard out, and be ready to catch a frozen rope right after he cuts?

A guy who's going to be playing wideout opposite Moss needs to be able to run the kind of routes that get you open outside the numbers, and that's not anything like Edelman ever did in college.

For the sake of comparison, are you saying that Aiken can do these things?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

He didn't have 4 years experience as a receiver in college and he broke his forearm a month into the season. He will be different than Welker although he can cover for him and grow into a different role. He's not quite as quick and can't he expected to be nearly as instinctive, although Brady thinks he will get there because of his background as a QB having to know the field. He's faster than Welker top end which isn't actually saying that much as while those little legs churn like a SOB Welker didn't cover much ground and could be tracked down from behind. Welker was elusive through and this kid seems determined to be too. Welker also has great hands which this kid can't be expected to replicate early on. But he does seem to have that same drive and those guys tend to master whatever they can.

 

[signbabybrady]

He didn't have 4 years experience as a receiver in college and he broke his forearm a month into the season. He will be different than Welker although he can cover for him and grow into a different role. He's not quite as quick and can't he expected to be nearly as instinctive, although Brady thinks he will get there because of his background as a QB having to know the field. He's faster than Welker top end which isn't actually saying that much as while those little legs churn like a SOB Welker didn't cover much ground and could be tracked down from behind. Welker was elusive through and this kid seems determined to be too. Welker also has great hands which this kid can't be expected to replicate early on. But he does seem to have that same drive and those guys tend to master whatever they can.

The quickness thing isn't true. From what I have been reading Edelman put up better numbers in the quickness drills than Welker. On the football field Welkers experience and knowledge may allow him to play quicker but off the field in cone drills Edelman has put up quicker numbers which means he has potential to be quicker than welker on the field once he knows the offense better and reads defenses better and does things more instinctively. He may never fully catch up to Welker as Welker is special on the field but he certainly has the potential to do it and now the opportunity (though he still may need a few years to build the instincts).

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

umm man love lol

The same thing Peyton fans do to themselves every time he steps on the field.

 

[lamafist]

For the sake of comparison, are you saying that Aiken can do these things?

Well, actually, yes, Aiken can, and better than 99% of the people in the world. Just not quite well enough to excel in the NFL.

To be honest, it's hard to tell just what Aiken's problems are. He's got good speed, good burst off the line and in and out of his cuts, and does seem to generally be where Brady wants him to be, with good enough position on the DB that gets passes thrown his way.

He just doesn't catch them often enough.

Maybe he's not great at getting a clean release off the line, which would explain why he's always got a DB around to knock the ball out of his hands. Maybe he's not good at timing his jump. Maybe he's not good at using his size and strength to box the DB out. Who knows?

He's a frustrating one, because he seems to be doing a lot of things right, but something he's not is keeping him from coming down with the ball.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well, actually, yes, Aiken can, and better than 99% of the people in the world. Just not quite well enough to excel in the NFL.

To be honest, it's hard to tell just what Aiken's problems are. He's got good speed, good burst off the line and in and out of his cuts, and does seem to generally be where Brady wants him to be, with good enough position on the DB that gets passes thrown his way.

He just doesn't catch them often enough.

Maybe he's not great at getting a clean release off the line, which would explain why he's always got a DB around to knock the ball out of his hands. Maybe he's not good at timing his jump. Maybe he's not good at using his size and strength to box the DB out. Who knows?

He's a frustrating one, because he seems to be doing a lot of things right, but something he's not is keeping him from coming down with the ball.

My amature assesment of Aiken is that he doesn't get a lot of seperation from the defender. Many, if not all of his catches are with the defender in his jock. His hands, route-running and athletic ability are average to above average. He is a 5th WR. Always has, always will.

 

[Calciumee]

One difference between Edelman and Welker has to be 6 yrs of dedicated weight room work. Welker's forearms are bigger than Edelman's upper arms. With more work, Edelman will have to be careful of ball security.

Welker's arms must be HUGE!!!

 

[lamafist]

My amature assesment of Aiken is that he doesn't get a lot of seperation from the defender. Many, if not all of his catches are with the defender in his jock. His hands, route-running and athletic ability are average to above average. He is a 5th WR. Always has, always will.

For Aiken to be successful in his role with the Pats, and the role that his frame + athletic makeup would suggest he was best suited for, he would need to be able to make catches without a ton of separation. Think of him like a slightly taller, slightly faster David Givens.

He's not going to get separation with breakaway speed, and he's too big to get it being "shifty" like Welker, or even Branch. He needs to be able out-muscle his DB's, box them out like a basketball player getting a rebound, and get catches by getting inside his defender, and winning jump balls.

It's hard to tell what's going on with him, because watching the games on TV, you don't usually see him at the snap or making his first cut, but for whatever reason, it doesn't seem like he's getting good position on the DB. He doesn't seem able to use his body to shield the ball from him.

Hard to tell why, but at this point in his career, it's hard to imagine it's going to change any time soon.