Football Outsiders on the 2009 Patriots opponents

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's a nugget worth noting:

I know a number of readers disagree with the opponent adjustments that give Brady the season lead in passing value. As I noted in an Extra Points post a couple weeks ago, Brady has played against the hardest schedule of opposing pass defenses of any quarterback in the past 17 years. Six of his games came against the top four pass defenses according to DVOA, with four others against the Ravens (7), Saints (9), and Dolphins (11).

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

 

[Kontradiction]

Pretty impressive when you consider that his starting O-Line has been extremely banged up all season long as well as his injuries on top of that.

 

[Schmo]

It was an AMAZING year for Brady considering he was just getting back into form. Second most passing yards in a season in his career?

As I said in the "Get well soon, Wes!" thread, Welker was the #1 reason Brady is back into the groove. In a way, going forward, it could almost be poetic with the old Brady back, finding the open man. Only because of the now injured Welker.

This isn't at all like Brady's last year, 2007. This year he has to fight for what he gets.

 

[BradyFTW!]

He wasn't fighting for what he got in 2007?

 

[Schmo]

He wasn't fighting for what he got in 2007?

No. Not nearly as much. For the reason that I gave... he is recovering from an injury and a year away from football.

Looks like he wasn't the only one gone for a year.

 

[supafly]

Here's a nugget worth noting:



FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

Very interesting stat, ct. Nice find.

I have been quite impressed by the overall toughness of Brady, fighting through injuries, etc--but also with the harder defensive schedule. I didn't take this schedule for granted from day 1, and personally felt it would be even tougher without a true, go-to #3 WR.

I'm not sure what will happen now w/o Welker, but overall, felt that Brady did a lot better than a lot of mediots and spolied posters. (And I'm not talking about the realists, but the ones who claimed that the schedule wouldn't be hard, that we'd easily win the SB, that we'd go 15-1, that we should 'bench' Brady,etc)

 

[Gwedd]

Very interesting stat, ct. Nice find.

I have been quite impressed by the overall toughness of Brady, fighting through injuries, etc--but also with the harder defensive schedule. I didn't take this schedule for granted from day 1, and personally felt it would be even tougher without a true, go-to #3 WR.

I'm not sure what will happen now w/o Welker, but overall, felt that Brady did a lot better than a lot of mediots and spolied posters. (And I'm not talking about the realists, but the ones who claimed that the schedule wouldn't be hard, that we'd easily win the SB, that we'd go 15-1, that we should 'bench' Brady,etc)

This. I fully agree with this comment.

 

[BradyManny]

Here's a nugget worth noting:



FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

Good stuff.

This is what I alluded to last week:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...3-brady-manning-against-common-opponents.html

Before my thread was hijacked by a Colts fan.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

It was an AMAZING year for Brady considering he was just getting back into form. Second most passing yards in a season in his career?

As I said in the "Get well soon, Wes!" thread, Welker was the #1 reason Brady is back into the groove. In a way, going forward, it could almost be poetic with the old Brady back, finding the open man. Only because of the now injured Welker.

This isn't at all like Brady's last year, 2007. This year he has to fight for what he gets.

well, i guess it depends on your definition of "fight," but i wouldn't want to be the one to tell Tommy that he didn't "fight" for what he got in 2007, especially after the Philadelphia game when teams started bringing the blitz and planting his butt regularly on the turf, whether or not it was recorded as a "sack." but if you're referring to "fighting back" from knee surgery, then you're technically correct. in addition, you'd be right if you meant that he couldn't count on the D in the fourth quarter to hold two touchdown leads that the offense built...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Here's a nugget worth noting:



FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 DVOA Ratings

that's a great piece. thanks a lot.

i don't expect it to get much play outside of Patriots Nation because it runs against the CW that Peyton Manning put up such a great season this year that no other QB in the history of the game, let alone anyone playing this season, even deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with him.

Most interesting (and also certainly to be ignored outside New England) is the fact that Brady out duels Manning in the two seasons where he had weapons among his receivers who were comparable to what manning had.

This makes me reflect that Brady, in his SB winning years, was really playing a very different game than Manning. The loss of Welker highlights the fact that for those seasons he always had one or at the most two go-to receivers, none of whom will be mentioned for Canton, and that he was basically playing to find the open guy, behind a line that gave him the time to do that. I know that most of us "knew that," but this just brings it into sharp focus.

His most amazing season was 2006, IMHO, when he lost both Branch and Givens. The fact that he still took the team to the AFCCG is quite remarkable. (I always thought that asking him to play that year without a #1--cynics would say without a #2--Receiver was a funny way to thank him for taking a Home Town Discount in May, 2005.)

Anyway, that's a great perspective on how challenging this season has been, without even considering that he's coming back from a lost season. As one of the folks who predicted an 11 win season in writing out here before the opening game, I always thought that it would be particularly tough.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

His most amazing season was 2006, IMHO, when the Pats let both Branch and Givens leave as Free Agents.

*cough* Branch *cough* first-rounder from Seattle *cough* free agent my a** *cough*

 

[BradyManny]

Just one further thought:

This is what gives me hope to a Patriots SB run, Welker injury aside. The Patriots have performed better against their opponents than most, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Peyton and Brees did not play well against the AFCE, the pass defenses in our division are legitimately brutal, particularly the Jets & Bills. We play in a division of tough defenses, brutal weather, tough opposing stadiums and we drew some tough non-division games this season. The playoffs will be more of the same, but for other teams, that may not be the case, the playoffs may be a huge leap in quality of opponent for them.

 

[H8R]

Just one further thought:

This is what gives me hope to a Patriots SB run, Welker injury aside. The Patriots have performed better against their opponents than most, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Peyton and Brees did not play well against the AFCE, the pass defenses in our division are legitimately brutal, particularly the Jets & Bills. We play in a division of tough defenses, brutal weather, tough opposing stadiums and we drew some tough non-division games this season. The playoffs will be more of the same, but for other teams, that may not be the case, the playoffs may be a huge leap in quality of opponent for them.

If I'm not mistaken, The Ravens had the hardest schedule out of any playoff team, granted The Ravens lost a bunch of games to the other playoff teams.

 

[BradyManny]

If I'm not mistaken, The Ravens had the hardest schedule out of any playoff team, granted The Ravens lost a bunch of games to the other playoff teams.

They were 1-6 against playoff teams...Their one victory was against SD, though.

 

[H8R]

They were 1-6 against playoff teams...Their one victory was against SD, though.

I know, thats why I stated the Ravens lost most of the games played against playoff teams.

 

[Kontradiction]

I know, thats why I stated the Ravens lost most of the games played against playoff teams.

I'm not so sure of the Ravens' ability to beat San Diego in a re-match (though I will admit that I think people overrate San Diego).

San Diego, discovered by the Germans in 1903. They name it... San Di-ago, which of course in German means "a whale's vagina".

 

[sieglo]

I don't like this analysis. If it's true, it means that the Ravens could be the best team in football. I really don't want that to be the case.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

*cough* Branch *cough* first-rounder from Seattle *cough* free agent my a** *cough*

thanks for the correction. You're right, how can we forget the Branch saga? Branch was eventually traded (we got Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft as a result) and Givens left as an FA for Tennessee. The underlying point still stands. Brady was left without his top two receivers in 2006. I'll leave a discussion of the relative value of Deion Branch and Brandon Meriweather to the Patriots to another thread.

Especially sad footnote given this week's events: Givens played just five games for the Titans in 2006 and suffered a career-ending ACL tear in week 10, missed all of 2007 and was released in 2008. He never played in the NFL again.

 

[lamafist]

The sobering side of the Outsiders' analysis is that this upcoming Sunday's game against the Ravens, who end the season ranked #1 in total DVOA, is the toughest match-up the Patriots could have drawn.

The Ravens end the year with the 3rd ranked defense, and it only drops to 5th overall when you weight to count the recent games stronger.

Furthermore, over the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens have had the 2nd most effective run offense, although their passing attack did drop down to 16th.

Considering this tough wild-card week match-up, it's little surprise that the Pats given only a 21.5% chance of making it to AFCCG, to the Colts' and Chargers' 64.6% and 65.8%, respectively.

 

[lamafist]

thanks for the correction. You're right, Branch was traded (we got Brandon Meriweather in the 2007 draft as a result) and Givens left as an FA for Tennessee. The underlying point still stands. Brady was left without his top two receivers in 2006. I'll leave a discussion of the relative value of Deion Branch and Brandon Meriweather to another thread.

I've often argued that while 2007 was fun to watch, 2006 was truly Brady's most impressive season.

For Brady to have led the Pats to the 5th most efficient passing attack in the league that year (by DVOA, natch) with the motley crew of JAGs he was throwing to -- that just shouldn't be possible.

I think that season could go down as the most overlooked all-time-great season in sports history.