Patriots wild card opponent will be:

[upstater1]

Below are the scenarios by cluster:

_______________________________________________________

1. If the Ravens win, Jets win = Ravens (Houston/Patriots game is irrelevant)

1a. If Patriots win, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Steelers win = Steelers

1b. If Patriots win, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Steelers lose, Broncos win = Broncos

1c. If Patriots win, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Steelers lose, Broncos lose, Jax wins = Jaguars

1d. If Patriots win, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Steelers lose, Broncos win, Jax loses = Dolphins
_______________________________________________________

2. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets win = Steelers

2a. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win, Steelers win = Broncos

2b. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers win, Jax wins = Jaguars

2c. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax wins = Dolphins

2d. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax loses = Broncos (Broncos are only team that can get in with loss).

2e. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win, Steelers lose, Jax wins = Jaguars

2f. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win, Steelers lose, Jax loses = Dolphins
_______________________________________________________

3. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Jets win, Broncos win = Broncos.

3a. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win = Texans.

3b. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Jets win, Broncos lose = Texans.

3c. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose = Texans.

_______________________________________________________

4. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos win = Broncos

4a. If Patriots lose, the Ravens win, Jets lose, Broncos lose = Texans

 

[Disco Volante]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Cool, thanks for the breakdown.

 

[klinefan]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

yahoo! has a really good scenario generator where you pick the teams that win, etc.

The rules alone make it kind of dizzying.

Go pats

they have some scenarios where baltimore wins but is NOT the pats opponent.

Namely,

if denver loses and pitt, cincy, ne, and jax win. then pittsburgh plays the pastorios.

 

[mgcolby]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Below are the probabilities in clusters:

_______________________________________________________

1. If Ravens win, the Ravens are the Patriots opponents, no matter what happens in any other game.

_______________________________________________________

2. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets win, the Steelers are the Patriots opponents.

2a. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win, Steelers win, the Broncos are the opponents.

2b. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers win, Jax wins, the Jaguars are the opponents.

2c. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax wins, the Phins are the opponents.

2d. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax loses, the Jets are the opponents.

_______________________________________________________

3. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Broncos win, the Patriots play the Broncos.

3a. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Broncos lose, the Patriots play the Texans.

I'm not sure that I understand number 1 fully. Are you saying that the winner of the Cincy/NYJ game not only determines the 3rd and 4th seeding, but also the 5 and 6th seeding if Baltimore wins?

In other words, we know that if we lose and Cincy wins they are the 3rd seed. If we both win or both lose then we are the 3rd seed. So, this would suggest that if the Jets win and the Ravens win, then the Ravens are the 6th seed and we are the 3rd seed. But if the Bengals win, we lose and the Ravens win....then we are the 4th seed and the Ravens are the 5th seed.

Is that correct?

 

[T_Brady12]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Below are the probabilities in clusters:

_______________________________________________________

1. If Ravens win, the Ravens are the Patriots opponents, no matter what happens in any other game.

_______________________________________________________

2. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets win, the Steelers are the Patriots opponents.

2a. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos win, the Broncos are the opponents.

2b. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers win, Jax wins, the Jaguars are the opponents.

2c. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax wins, the Phins are the opponents.

2d. If Patriots win, Ravens lose, Jets lose, Broncos lose, Steelers lose, Jax loses, the Jets are the opponents.

_______________________________________________________

3. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Broncos win, the Patriots play the Broncos.

3a. If Patriots lose, Ravens lose, Broncos lose, the Patriots play the Texans.

False.

Ravens, Steelers, Broncos win - Jets, Texans lose = NE vs PIT
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Texans lose = NE vs JAX
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Jags, Texans lose = NE vs DEN

2c. Is also incorrect. We would face the Broncos. Jacksonville would have to lose. Then it would be Miami.

2d. is the NE vs Miami scenario. I believe we can't face the Jets unless they tie the Bengals. Not 100% though.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I'm not sure that I understand number 1 fully. Are you saying that the winner of the Cincy/NYJ game not only determines the 3rd and 4th seeding, but also the 5 and 6th seeding if Baltimore wins?

You got me. I got to redo it! Shoot. I heard this in many corners today and repeated it, but it's wrong.

 

[gfecte01]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

upstater - Appreciate the post and you're attempt to make a complicated matter simplistic but as kliner mentioned, either you're wrong or Yahoo! is wrong. Please look into this and edit accordingly to avoid even more confusion.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

Just updated with new info.

Need to look at mgcolby's post.

gfecte, don't know about Yahoo, but they were wrong all last week as this weekend's games proved. Jerome Bettis on his show said Yahoo was wrong all week because it didn't account for Houston's impact on Pitt's chances, so I would distrust it.

Doesn't mean I'm right and Yahoo is wrong though, but that was the case last week where I was right and Yahoo was wrong.

This is a work in progress.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

False.

Ravens, Steelers, Broncos win - Jets, Texans lose = NE vs PIT CORRECT, the change is made.
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Texans lose = NE vs JAX I'm showing Jax with #5 seed and Phins with #6 seed, which means NE against Miami.
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Jags, Texans lose = NE vs DEN ?????, I think there's a typo here.

2c. Is also incorrect. We would face the Broncos. Jacksonville would have to lose. Then it would be Miami.

2d. is the NE vs Miami scenario. I believe we can't face the Jets unless they tie the Bengals. Not 100% though.

I'll chek out the last two soon.

Jax is looking the best of all the 8-8 teams, so I'm pretty sure the Patriots would play them if all but one team lose.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I saw that the most likely team for the Patriots to play is the Jets. This assumes that Cincy tanks the game and then it doesn't matter if the Patriots win or lose. Another incentive for Cincy to tank the game is that if they lose, the Steelers are out.

But if Jupiter aligns with Mars, then there is a lot more things that can happen.

 

[slash83]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I saw that the most likely team for the Patriots to play is the Jets. This assumes that Cincy tanks the game and then it doesn't matter if the Patriots win or lose. Another incentive for Cincy to tank the game is that if they lose, the Steelers are out.

But if Jupiter aligns with Mars, then there is a lot more things that can happen.

As good as the jets d can be at times, the thought of a rookie qb whos been playing like crap for about a month coming to the Pats house in the middle of winter in a playoff atmosphere doesnt worry me much.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

This should help clear things up. I have a very bad headache now.

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

 

[Peachhead]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I'd rather not see the 'Phins again. I'd prefer the Jags again. But I like our chances against anyone in the 1st round.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

False.

Ravens, Steelers, Broncos win - Jets, Texans lose = NE vs PIT
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Texans lose = NE vs JAX
Ravens, Dolphins win - Steelers, Broncos, Jets, Jags, Texans lose = NE vs DEN

2c. Is also incorrect. We would face the Broncos. Jacksonville would have to lose. Then it would be Miami.

2d. is the NE vs Miami scenario. I believe we can't face the Jets unless they tie the Bengals. Not 100% though.

I'm showing that Miami has a much better strength of victory than the Broncos, so indeed Miami would get the last 8-8 wildcard spot.

So, 2c opponent is still the Phins, and 2d is the Broncos.

 

[makewayhomer]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

I saw that the most likely team for the Patriots to play is the Jets. This assumes that Cincy tanks the game and then it doesn't matter if the Patriots win or lose. Another incentive for Cincy to tank the game is that if they lose, the Steelers are out.

But if Jupiter aligns with Mars, then there is a lot more things that can happen.

it's much more likely that the Pats play the Dolphins, Texans, or Jaguars in Round 1 than it is they play the Jets in Round 1. seriously.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

This should help clear things up. I have a very bad headache now.

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

That actually doesn't help because it doesn't go anywhere near as far as this thread does.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

If the scenarios in post 1 are true, it almost seems as though losing might be better than a win. Either way, though, it looks like the Ravens are very likely.

 

[upstater1]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

If the scenarios in post 1 are true, it almost seems as though losing might be better than a win. Either way, though, it looks like the Ravens are very likely.

If you want to avoid the Steelers, then yes, losing is better than winning.

A Patriots loss means the Patriots would play the Ravens, Texans or Broncos.

 

[bob85ne]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

If the Patriots and Bengals end up with the same record, it will come down to strength of victory.

At the moment the Patriots victory opponents combined record is 65-85 and the Bengals is 60-89 (Bengals one game less as the Bears play tonight).

It is possible for both the Patriots and Bengals to both win and then all the Bengals strength of victory opponents to win and the Bengals could beat the Pats to the 3rd seed. Unlikely, but possible the same for both teams losing.

Pats strength of victory teams: Buf 5-10 (x2), Atl 8-7, Bal 8-7, Ten 7-8, TB 3-12, Mia 7-8, NYJ 8-7, Car 7-8, Jax 7-8.

Bengals strength of victory teams: GB 10-5, Pit 8-7 (x2), Cle 4-11 (x2), Bal 8-7 (x2), Chi 5-9 (still to play Min tonight), Det 2-13, KC 3-12.

Atlanta play Tampa Bay in Week 17 so the Pats will have 1 definite win added and so will the Bengals as Detroit plays Chicago.

Phew!

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

Re: Patriots wild card opponent by % chance

If you want to avoid the Steelers, then yes, losing is better than winning.

A Patriots loss means the Patriots would play the Ravens, Texans or Broncos.

Very good post... My question, is the chance to face the jets is very unlikley unless there is a 4 way tie of 8-8 teams...