Predict next week's AFC games and playoff scenarios

[upstater1]

Use the Yahoo Playoff Generator (I think it's finally working): http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario

1. Houston opens a 10 point lead on the Patriots after the Patriots pull Brady, Moss and Welker in the 3rd quarter. Houston goes on to win.

2. Steelers grab a 3 point lead on Miami, but they start scoreboard watching in the 3rd, see the Houston-Patriots score, and they lose heart. Miami nips them at the end.

3. Baltimore chokes and loses to Oakland.

4. Broncos beat KC.

5. Cincy goes all out against Jets and destroy them, as Giants stadium is closed down with 2 straight losses by New York teams. Cincy has something to play for. They think New England can beat Indy in the second round, which would allow Cincy to host the AFC CG.

6. Playoffs are set: Houston at Cincy, Broncos at Patriots.

7. Cincy beats Houston

8. Patriots beat Broncos

9. Cincy dedicates the game to Chris Henry, upsets San Diego

10. Patriots annihilate Indy by 17 points.

11. Cincy hosts Patriots for the AFC CG, and the Patriots kick themselves for not playing all out in the 17th game of the season. The game is played in -10 wind chill temperatures. Not to worry, Gostkowski puts the Patriots up 15-9 in the 4th quarter, and the Patriots D holds.

I'm officially predicting all this will happen except #9/#11. We'll be seeing SD at SD for the AFC CG.

 

[makewayhomer]

the most likely scenario is

Baltimore beats Oakland
Houston beats New England
Jets beat Cinci

leaving Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats

 

[justinb]

the most likely scenario is

Baltimore beats Oakland
Houston beats New England
Jets beat Cinci

leaving Jets @ Cinci
Ravens @ Pats

I actually see the Bengals beating the Jets..to try to gain momentum going into the playoffs

 

[makewayhomer]

I actually see the Bengals beating the Jets..to try to gain momentum going into the playoffs

the Jets are 9 point favorites (!!!)

crazy

speaks to how much people think the Bengals will rest people as they don't have all that much to play for, while the Jets do

 

[upstater1]

the Jets are 9 point favorites (!!!)

crazy

speaks to how much people think the Bengals will rest people as they don't have all that much to play for, while the Jets do

I think vegas could be wrong on this one. If the Patriots beat Houston, Cincy will definitely play to win.

 

[makewayhomer]

I think vegas could be wrong on this one. If the Patriots beat Houston, Cincy will definitely play to win.

if the Patriots beat Houston, Cinci is the #4 seed with a win or a loss, their game becomes meaningless for the Bengals

do you mean if the Pats lose to Houston Cinci will play hard? if the Pats lose / Bengals win Cinci gets the #3, we get the #4. but its unclear how much of an edge that is and if it's worth fighting for

 

[upstater1]

if the Patriots beat Houston, Cinci is the #4 seed with a win or a loss, their game becomes meaningless for the Bengals

do you mean if the Pats lose to Houston Cinci will play hard? if the Pats lose / Bengals win Cinci gets the #3, we get the #4. but its unclear how much of an edge that is and if it's worth fighting for

Yes, I screwed that up. I meant Houston beats the Patriots.

Then, a Pats win against Indy lands Cincy the AFC CG at home.

That's worth playing for.

The problem is, you may end up with Pitt in the first round if you try for the 3 seed.

 

[makewayhomer]

also, running through the Yahoo playoff generator, the odds are greatly in favor of us hosting Baltimore, then us hosting Pittsburgh. there is a tiny chance we host the Broncos, and I don't think there is any chance we can host the Jets.

apparently through miracles other teams can get in, but I'm not gonna bother to research them.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Few questions for upstater, since you seem to have the playoff scenarios down.

If the Jets, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Broncos all win which teams get in?

What if Jets,Texans,Steelers,Broncos win?

I might have more but I think that's all I was wondering about

NOTE: I edited the Broncos win into both scenarios hope you didn't start already

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

the computerized playoff generator is for ******s.

No chance BB pulls the starters unless the game gets out of hand (like 35-0). There is still far too much to work on (groove wise) with both the offense and defense. Perhaps a dinged player here or there will sit, but not the starters en masse.

Patriots roll on Houston, who like the Jags, will sh!t themselves with the season on the line.

As for what the rest of the league will do is anybody's guess. :confused2:

 

[makewayhomer]

The problem is, you may end up with Pitt in the first round if you try for the 3 seed.

I still stand by "the Ravens are the best Wild Card team"...and really I think they are much better than any of the others. they are the team I would rather not see in the WC round, but it looks likely we play them

of course, Pittsburgh seems to have some voodoo hex on them, but that is a matchup thing...not unlike how the Dolphins seem to match up with us much better than the relative strength of the teams should indicate

 

[makewayhomer]

the computerized playoff generator is for ******s.

No chance BB pulls the starters unless the game gets out of hand (like 35-0). There is still far too much to work on (groove wise) with both the offense and defense. Perhaps a dinged player here or there will sit, but not the starters en masse.

Going into Week 17 in 2005 season, the Patriots were 10-5. Indianapolis and Denver had the byes, but the #3 and #4 seeds were up for grabs ,with the Pats in play for the #3. but they basically sandbagged the game and rested people.

never say "no chance" especially if it's happened before

also, starters can never sit "en masse"...but of course just Brady sitting means a crap load

 

[upstater1]

also, running through the Yahoo playoff generator, the odds are greatly in favor of us hosting Baltimore, then us hosting Pittsburgh. there is a tiny chance we host the Broncos, and I don't think there is any chance we can host the Jets.

apparently through miracles other teams can get in, but I'm not gonna bother to research them.

When I say it's impossible for us to host the Jets, I mean it's 99.9% unlikely. For the Patriots to host the Jets, the Jets would need to lose, the Patriots would need to win.

It could happen.

I think the chances of us hosting Pitt after Baltimore all depends on the Houston game. If Baltimore loses to Oakland and we beat the Texans, then yes, Pitt would be the likeliest opponent if they beat Miami. But, those three things would need to happen.

 

[upstater1]

Few questions for upstater, since you seem to have the playoff scenarios down.

If the Jets, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Broncos all win which teams get in?

What if Jets,Texans,Steelers,Broncos win?

I might have more but I think that's all I was wondering about

NOTE: I edited the Broncos win into both scenarios hope you didn't start already

First scenario: Jets and Ravens
Second scenario: Jets and Broncos

My favorite scenario is this one:

Steelers, Texans, Ravens and Broncos all lose.
Jax and Jets win.

Jets at Cincy
8-8 Jax at 11-5 Patriots.

 

[makewayhomer]

When I say it's impossible for us to host the Jets, I mean it's 99.9% unlikely. For the Patriots to host the Jets, the Jets would need to lose, the Patriots would need to win.

It could happen.
.

if the Jets lose, they probably aren't making the playoffs

I think it may actually be impossible for us to host them

it's mathematically possible for us to host Miami or even Houston, but I cant find a scenario where we host the NYJ

 

[upstater1]

if the Jets lose, they probably aren't making the playoffs

I think it may actually be impossible for us to host them

it's mathematically possible for us to host Miami, but I cant find a scenario where we host the NYJ

I didn't realize that Miami would be ahead of the Jets.

But on division record and head-to-head they are so you're correct.

 

[makewayhomer]

I didn't realize that Miami would be ahead of the Jets.

So, it can happen in this scenario:

Steelers beat Miami and grab the 5 seed, while Jets grab the #6 seed.

I can't find any scenario where the Jets grab the #6. I'm pretty sure they are the #5 seed with a win and out of the playoffs completely with a loss

and if the Jets win and finish #5, that means Cinci loses, and if Cinci loses, the Pats are the #3. ergo its impossible for us to host them

 

[drew4008]

Okay, so we get Baltimore basically, unless WE win AND the Bengals win (both big dogs expected to rest starters). Then we're dependent on the Miami-Steelers game (Miami wins we get Denver, Pitt wins we get them). I'm about 99% sure the Ravens roll Oakland, so not even going to get into that scenario.

 

[makewayhomer]

So we get Baltimore basically.

No matter the outcome of Jets-Cincy, we play the Ravens.

not exactly, but the most likely scenario is us hosting the Ravens. but there are so many scenarios that lots of things could happen

 

[upstater1]

I can't find any scenario where the Jets grab the #6. I'm pretty sure they are the #5 seed with a win and out of the playoffs completely with a loss

and if the Jets win and finish #5, that means Cinci loses, and if Cinci loses, the Pats are the #3. ergo its impossible for us to host them

Jets, Balt, Jax, Hou and Den would all be tied with 8-8 records and, except for Hou, they all have 6-6 conference records.

Pitt would grab the #5 seed.

Not enough common games between the 4 teams for that tiebreaker. So, we'd go to strength of victory next.

The Jets have wins over Indy, NE, Hou, Tenn, Carolina. That's pretty formidable. I know Baltimore can't compete. Den is the only competition. and guess what? Den wins, so you're correct. Jets can't get in with a loss.

It would be Pitt and Den in this scenario. So now I need to amend what I wrote.