5 real wild-card candidates

[upstater1]

ESPN says if the season ended today Jets are #6 and Broncs are #5, NFL.com says the same thing.

Hard to see how the Broncos could win and not get in.




Playing Sexy Rexy and the J-E-T-S and sending them home again would be great. Wouldn't this be the last 3 times when the Jets made the playoffs they had to play us in Foxboro?

Some of the common opponent scenarios don't kick in until next week. In some of the ties, the teams have 3 common opponents, and next week will make four.

I don't trust anyone on this though.

 

[upstater1]

That will change next week if the Jets and Ravens win. If the Ravens beat the Raiders that will improve their common opponent record vs the Broncos. Remember the Broncos lost to the Raiders last week.

The Jets will also improve their record by a win against the Bengals, who the Broncos also played.

Something is really funky, however, since Den would still have a better common opponent record.

There's a problem here, and the only way the NFL could be right on this and Shefter wrong is if Houston cannot be eliminated with conference record because of the tie between Balt and Den.

 

[Metaphors]

Here is the way I understand it if Jets, Ravens, Pitt, Texans and Broncos are all 9-7:

1) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker, eliminating one team and repeating until two teams remain:

- Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
- Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record
- Ravens eliminated in round #3 because of common opponents

2) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

- Broncos eliminated because of common opponents

JETS GET #5 SEED

3) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker again with remaining teams

- Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
- Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record

4) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

- Broncos eliminated because of head-to-head

RAVENS GET #6 SEED

 

[upstater1]

Here is the way I understand it if Jets, Ravens, Pitt, Texans and Broncos are all 9-7:

1) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker, eliminating one team and repeating until two teams remain:

- Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
- Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record
- Ravens eliminated in round #3 because of common opponents

2) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

- Broncos eliminated because of common opponents

JETS GET #5 SEED

3) Run through the 3-way tie-breaker again with remaining teams

- Steelers eliminated in round #1 because of worse divisional record than Ravens (step 1 of tie-breaker says to eliminate intra-division ties)
- Texans eliminated in round #2 because of conference record

4) Run through the 2-way tie-breaker

- Broncos eliminated because of head-to-head

RAVENS GET #6 SEED

That makes sense to me. The only way you get the NFL's result is if you move to the next tie-breaker without eliminating teams. In that case, Broncos get it over Ravens based on common opponents. The rules don't say you need to eliminate teams, but I assume that you do simply because it's logical.

 

[upstater1]

If Baltimore beats Oakland, we're playing Baltimore.

If they lose, we play the Broncos.

 

[Metaphors]

That makes sense to me. The only way you get the NFL's result is if you move to the next tie-breaker without eliminating teams. In that case, Broncos get it over Ravens based on common opponents. The rules don't say you need to eliminate teams, but I assume that you do simply because it's logical.

I assume you do eliminate teams because of the following:

Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.

So this reads to me like you apply the 3-way tie-breaker to either establish a clear winner by one of the steps or eliminate teams until you get down to 2.

 

[blackglass3]

So, how's this for wacky...The Jets get in by beating the Benglas, and then beat the Bengals again (do any of us really thing the Bengals won't bomb that first round game?). Then they will go to Indy. Indy is positioning themselves for thier annual playoff flameout. The Jets could honestly be in the AFC Championship game on some kind of crazy ***** crap like that.

And imagine if we get their after beating Baltimore or Denver and then SD. Pats/Jets in Foxboro for the AFC Super Bowl berth. God would that be awesome!

 

[Gunnails]

And imagine if we get their after beating Baltimore or Denver and then SD. Pats/Jets in Foxboro for the AFC Super Bowl berth. God would that be awesome!

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Yes it would.

 

[Metaphors]

If Baltimore beats Oakland, we're playing Baltimore.

If they lose, we play the Broncos.

That pretty much bottom-lines it. Good news is that Belichick has 2 weeks to prep for the Ravens and the Ravens will be coming off a west coast swing, playing their 3rd consecutive roadie.

 

[blackglass3]

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Yes it would.

I know alot could happen from now until the end of January, but that would be one of the best AFCCG games they could get. Sportswriters wouldn't have enough time to go over all the storylines.

 

[redsx8827]

At this point there really is mass confusion, since I can't see how nfl.com says Broncos win and they're in.

Makes no sense.

I'm assuming it's Baltimore unless I wasn't supposed to eliminate Houston in the 3rd tiebreaker.

I just did the math, and that's where i was confused. I assume that because the Jets beat both Balt and Denver in the common opponents tie breaker, that you eliminate the jets (in a good way, for them) and then start over with balt and Denver.....but you might also look at it from the other way around and eliminate baltimore because they have the worst common opponent record.

However, on ESPNs tiebreaking site, it says "1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step."

That means that Denver CANNOT advance in the common opponents step because the Jets already have. And that leaves Denver and Baltimore left. And so it reverts back to step one, which is a head to head win by Baltimore

 

[Gunnails]

I just did the math, and that's where i was confused. I assume that because the Jets beat both Balt and Denver in the common opponents tie breaker, that you eliminate the jets (in a good way, for them) and then start over with balt and Denver.....but you might also look at it from the other way around and eliminate baltimore because they have the worst common opponent record.

However, on ESPNs tiebreaking site, it says "1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step."

That means that Denver CANNOT advance in the common opponents step because the Jets already have. And that leaves Denver and Baltimore left. And so it reverts back to step one, which is a head to head win by Baltimore

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:welcome:

 

[redsx8827]

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:welcome:

haha thanks

 

[upstater1]

Ravens and Jets win and in, everyone else needs help.

Pecking order for those hungry for Jets or Ravens loss:

1. Denver
2. Houston
3. Pittsburgh
4. Jacksonville

-- So, if one of BAL or NYJ lose, the next team (Denver) gets in with a win. They fail, it goes down to Houston, etc.

Miami Dolphins need: Baltimore, Jets, Jacksonville and Houston to all lose, and they have to beat the Steelers to get in.

Ahh, but it's not so easy. The Broncos not only need one of Baltimore or the Jets to lose, but they need Houston to win to make a 3-way tie between them and Pitt. If Broncos and Pitt win but Houston loses, then Pitt gets in because of its head-to-head record against Denver.