5 real wild-card candidates

[Fencer]

The teams at 8-7 are Pitt, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Jesters.

Two play bad teams next week. Two play division champs likely to use the game as a partial bye. One plays Miami. So it seems to be pretty much a lock that at least two will win, so that the wild-card teams will indeed come from that group.

None, obviously, is a pushover. But all are eminently beatable.

 

[bigcountry75]

I heard that the Ravens and the Jests control their destinies so if they win they are in.....Other than that I don't know

 

[upstater1]

The teams at 8-7 are Pitt, Baltimore, Denver, Houston, Jesters.

Two play bad teams next week. Two play division champs likely to use the game as a partial bye. One plays Miami. So it seems to be pretty much a lock that at least two will win, so that the wild-card teams will indeed come from that group.

None, obviously, is a pushover. But all are eminently beatable.

Jets are the best bet
Then Denver
Then Baltimore
Then Houston
Pitt has the worst chance of getting in.

I'm basing this on the idea that Cincy and Patriots will use the week as a bye. If they sit guys, then that's the order for qualifying.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

I heard that the Ravens and the Jests control their destinies so if they win they are in.....Other than that I don't know

Negative. Broncos and Jets win and they're in.

The Donks play KC at Mile High and the Jets play Cincy at the closing game of the Meadowlands, with Cincy having nothing to play for...

Thus, Denver would be #5 and Jests #6.

Unless Vesuvius erupts, we play the Jets in the first round.

 

[juny]

Don't know how accurate Yahoo's NFL Playoff Generator is but if all the 8-7 teams win next week, then it's the Ravens and Jets w/ the Pats playing the Ravens.

 

[gmtaxi27]

Negative. Broncos and Jets win and they're in.

The Donks play KC at Mile High and the Jets play Cincy at the closing game of the Meadowlands, with Cincy having nothing to play for...

Thus, Denver would be #5 and Jests #6.

Unless Vesuvius erupts, we play the Jets in the first round.

You are wrong. The Ravens beat the Broncos, so they are ahead of the Broncos. If Jets and Ravens win, they are in.

More than likely we are going to face the Ravens in the first round.

 

[carolinatony]

Don't know how accurate Yahoo's NFL Playoff Generator is but if all the 8-7 teams win next week, then it's the Ravens and Jets w/ the Pats playing the Ravens.

Thats what I thought as well.

 

[supafly]

upstater1 has been all over it since day one, I'm going to trust him

as far as the 'yahoo generator,' it has been wrong the whole time, even jerome bettis has talked about it on his show

 

[upstater1]

You are wrong. The Ravens beat the Broncos, so they are ahead of the Broncos. If Jets and Ravens win, they are in.

More than likely we are going to face the Ravens in the first round.

No it doesn't work that way.

If Balt is tied with more than just the Broncos, then head-to-head doesn't count. You'd need to go to the next tiebreaker which is conference record, and then common opponents etc.

It may still be that Baltimore gets in but you need to run through the scenarios.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

NFL.com AFC playoff scenario, updated very recently, says the Jets and Denver control their own destiny:

1 Indy
2 SD
3 Pats
4 Cincy
5 Denver
6 Jets
(on the outside looking in.....)
7 Balt
8 Texans
9 Steelers

As I see it, the Jets (Sanchez led) and Denver are very beatable games. Take the #3 seed and hope for win over SD and a Cincy win over Indy. AFCCG is then in Foxboro....

 

[upstater1]

The wording of the official NFL tiebreakers makes it difficult for me to determine who would get in. Here it is:

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

Now, if Baltimore, Houston and Den end up tied, you can't go to head-to-head tiebreaker.

So you go to conference record. Baltimore and Den are tied at conference record.

Now, what do I do?

Do I drop Houston at this point? The instructions don't tell me to do that, but I can infer that I am supposed to eliminate a team.

If I eliminate Houston, then we go to the two team tiebreaker, and Baltimore gets in before Den.

If this is true, I expect NE to play Baltimore, unless Balt loses or Cincy beats the Jets.

If it's not true, then you go to common opponents tiebreaker, and Houston and Den are 3-2 while Balt is 1-4.

So, using the same rationale keeping all 3 teams, the next tiebreaker is Strength of Victory. At this point I quit.

Let's assume I should eliminate Houston. In that case, Baltimore does get in with a win.

 

[gmtaxi27]

Schefter is saying Ravens and Jets are in with a win.


Adam Schefter (Adam_Schefter) on Twitter

 

[upstater1]

At this point there really is mass confusion, since I can't see how nfl.com says Broncos win and they're in.

Makes no sense.

I'm assuming it's Baltimore unless I wasn't supposed to eliminate Houston in the 3rd tiebreaker.

 

[bostonia3333]

Schefter is saying Ravens and Jets are in with a win.


Adam Schefter (Adam_Schefter) on Twitter

Ok cool, now how bout the seeding there? I take it NYJ would be 6 and BALT 5

 

[upstater1]

Schefter is saying Ravens and Jets are in with a win.


Adam Schefter (Adam_Schefter) on Twitter

What's he basing this on?

ForgiVe me if I don't trust him since so many clowns (I mean experts) last week were using head-to-head as the tiebreaker not realizing it isn't in play when more than 2 teams tie. If he's basing it on head-to-head, he's likely wrong. if he has run through the other tiebreakers, he could be right.

 

[upstater1]

Ok cool, now how bout the seeding there? I take it NYJ would be 6 and BALT 5

Jets get higher seed based on common opponents %, so they'd take on Cincy.

 

[gmtaxi27]

What's he basing this on?

ForgiVe me if I don't trust him since so many clowns (I mean experts) last week were using head-to-head as the tiebreaker not realizing it isn't in play when more than 2 teams tie. If he's basing it on head-to-head, he's likely wrong. if he has run through the other tiebreakers, he could be right.

Lets assume the Jets win. They get the #5 seed based on their record vs common opponents.

If all other 8-7 teams win. Then you first have to break ties out of the division. Ravens beat out Steelers based on division record.

Now its between Houston, Denver, Ravens. Houston is eliminated based on Conference record. Then its between Denver and Baltimore. Baltimore would get it based on head to head.

I could be wrong, but I think this is the deal.

 

[bostonia3333]

Cincy would salivate over playing the Jets at home. They'll likely rest people to ensure playing against a rookie qb who is in a road playoff game. Looks like we have a shootout game with the Ravens ahead---not the best deal, but oh well.

 

[patsfan13]

ESPN says if the season ended today Jets are #6 and Broncs are #5, NFL.com says the same thing.

Hard to see how the Broncos could win and not get in.




Playing Sexy Rexy and the J-E-T-S and sending them home again would be great. Wouldn't this be the last 3 times when the Jets made the playoffs they had to play us in Foxboro?

 

[gmtaxi27]

ESPN says if the season ended today Jets are #6 and Broncs are #5, NFL.com says the same thing.

Hard to see how the Broncos could win and not get in.




Playing Sexy Rexy and the J-E-T-S and sending them home again would be great. Wouldn't this be the last 3 times when the Jets made the playoffs they had to play us in Foxboro?

That will change next week if the Jets and Ravens win. If the Ravens beat the Raiders that will improve their common opponent record vs the Broncos. Remember the Broncos lost to the Raiders last week.

The Jets will also improve their record by a win against the Bengals, who the Broncos also played.