Issues on offense

[Patspsycho]

Good write up on the problems we've been having on offense:

For Brady, all routes lead to Welker, Moss - The Boston Globe

As much as people would like to indict O'Brien, mostly because he is an unknown/dispensible, I do think at least half the blame has to go to Brady.

Unlike the early years, the number of receptions per player, after Moss/Welker, is a steep drop, and the next highest number of receptions belongs to Faulk which is a bad sign because we know he is usually in there as a down specialist. He is not a receiver in the true sense of the word.

I have not put my finger on it yet, but I am wagering that this is contributing in a big way to our 2nd half woes.

 

[upstater1]

Good write up on the problems we've been having on offense:

For Brady, all routes lead to Welker, Moss - The Boston Globe

As much as people would like to indict O'Brien, mostly because he is an unknown/dispensible, I do think at least half the blame has to go to Brady.

Unlike the early years, the number of receptions per player, after Moss/Welker, is a steep drop, and the next highest number of receptions belongs to Faulk which is a bad sign because we know he is usually in there as a down specialist. He is not a receiver in the true sense of the word.

I have not put my finger on it yet, but I am wagering that this is contributing in a big way to our 2nd half woes.

99% on O'Brien.

It's not on Brady simply because the defense knows exactly what Brady is going to do.

We saw Brady perform much better when he had the natural advantage of keeping the opposition guessing.

Reiss had a much better read on things when he wrote about the Patriots coming out in two formations in the second half of the Buffalo game.

One was empty backfield: PASS.
The other was 1 WR formations: RUN.

In other years, Brady excelld because the defense was kept off balance.

Brady's interception totals are not different from career norms. But the drives are stalling, his red zone % is bad, bad, bad.

It's a problem because there's no real mix of play action to keep defenses guessing, no imagination.

Brady hasn't looked good, but I want him put into a position to succeed, and then I'll decide if this is a down year. I can't judge him as easily when the defense knows what he's going to do.

 

[Sicilian]

Good write up on the problems we've been having on offense:

For Brady, all routes lead to Welker, Moss - The Boston Globe

As much as people would like to indict O'Brien, mostly because he is an unknown/dispensible, I do think at least half the blame has to go to Brady.

Unlike the early years, the number of receptions per player, after Moss/Welker, is a steep drop, and the next highest number of receptions belongs to Faulk which is a bad sign because we know he is usually in there as a down specialist. He is not a receiver in the true sense of the word.

I have not put my finger on it yet, but I am wagering that this is contributing in a big way to our 2nd half woes.

That's a good point. You can only run so many different routes and looks with those two guys, and once teams have had a chance to see what they're doing it gets easier to defend them.

It also could be the fewer baskets you have your eggs in, the fewer things need to go wrong before a play breaks down.

 

[Patstopia]

I think our OL is to blame. If Brady isnt pressured so much he can pick the open reciever, but most the time there are people already in on him and he has to go the recievers he trusts the most. Thats the book on him now. Put pressure on him and make him throw it quick. This leaves Moss out as a deep threat and if they hit Welker on the line no quick short pass. Also Brady becomes even more Jittery if you hit him low, as you could see in the Buffalo game.

 

[Rob0729]

I think people on this board have always blamed coaching over execution on the offensive side of the ball. Even when there hasn't been a problem with the offense, people complain about the coordinator. The only year since Brady has become the franchise that people haven't complained about the play calling was 2004.

I think there has been a lot of execution issues this year. Too many dropped balls that were very catchable balls. Brady has been way off on a lot of passes. There have been issues with o-lineman making the right presnap adjustments to their blocking assignments.

It is easy and very popular for people to blame the predictable play calling, but in many cases, it really isn't the case. It comes down to the execution and the failed attempt at it.

I agree that O'Brien is a big part of the problem. He is a rookie signal caller and is calling that way. I think his play calling is actually improving as the offensive production has been dropping though. Which clearly tells me it isn't all his fault.

Brady has an excuse right now because of injuries and hopefully if he heals, it will solve most of the problems with him. Same with the injuries with the o-line. I still think a lot of the problems on the offense falls on the players and I hope that injuries are playing the biggest part of their problems because that is potentially correctable by the playoffs.

 

[Patspsycho]

99% on O'Brien.

It's not on Brady simply because the defense knows exactly what Brady is going to do.

O'Brien does not force Brady to throw into double-coverage when Faulk is wide open.

 

[upstater1]

I think our OL is to blame. If Brady isnt pressured so much he can pick the open reciever, but most the time there are people already in on him and he has to go the recievers he trusts the most. Thats the book on him now. Put pressure on him and make him throw it quick. This leaves Moss out as a deep threat and if they hit Welker on the line no quick short pass. Also Brady becomes even more Jittery if you hit him low, as you could see in the Buffalo game.

I like the way the OL is blocking. The defense not only knows when a pass is coming so they don't need to worry about run, and they can just attack the OL, but beyond that they also get a good jump at the snap because we're hiking the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the clock.

 

[upstater1]

O'Brien does not force Brady to throw into double-coverage when Faulk is wide open.

So, the old Brady never made mistakes?

Charlie Weis, a master at keeping the D off balance, made Testaverde look like an All-Pro.

He brought up Brady.

That's exactly what we're missing.

 

[iapatsfan]

In my opinion the main issues with this team are as follows.

There is one guy on offense that can get open quickly, Welker. Moss is a great WR, but he takes a little longer to get up to speed. Welker is really the only guy we have that can get open right away. Combine that with an OL that struggles to keep guys out for an extended period of time, and Brady has very few options. How difficult is it to game plan for this offense? Cover Moss deep and let Welker dink and dunk you. Aiken is terrible and couldn't even make the cut as a WR in Buffalo. We need more speed and quickness at the WR position. Trying to get buy with an avg OL, 2 WR and nothing else is not a recipe for success. In the past, the Pats have always had 3 or 4 quality options in the passing game. They may not have been All Pros, but they were guys you had to account for because they could make plays. Right now, temas need to account for 2 guys before the snap and nothing else. If we're rating WRs on a 1-10 scale, I would rather have 4 7's than 2 10's. The philosophy in the past seemed to be that our 3rd and 4th WRs would be better than the other team's 3rd and 4th DB. This left Brady with all kinds of matchup problems to pick from. Now, all teams need to do is single cover Moss with help over the top and keep Welker in front of them.


The main problem with this team as a whole is the lack of pass rush. We have nobody with explosion off the edge. I have no idea who coaches pass rushing techniques on the Pats, but it sure seems the preferred method is to run straight into a blocker, attempt to bull rush and if that doesn't work, just stand there and wait for the play to be over. Do the Pats know how to draft a guy with pass rush moves? Do they know how to coach them?

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I'm just wondering why we are trying to turn Brady into Dan Marino?

 

[oldskool138]

I'm just wondering why we are trying to turn Brady into Dan Marino?

So he can sell Isotoner gloves.

 

[supafly]

If we're rating WRs on a 1-10 scale, I would rather have 4 7's than 2 10's.

I agree, the lack of any apparent #3 is killing this offense.

If we aren't going to have a #3 targeted, or maybe he can't get open, then I think they need to revert back to more versatility in play calling--to keep the defense guessing.

This year's offense seems to be way too predictable, IMO.

 

[dhamz]

I like the way the OL is blocking. The defense not only knows when a pass is coming so they don't need to worry about run, and they can just attack the OL, but beyond that they also get a good jump at the snap because we're hiking the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the clock.

Do you mean over the last 2 games?

Certainly no one could like the way the OL blocked against NO and Miami when a 3 man rush was getting pressure on Brady consistently, in some cases before he even completed his dropback.

 

[BradyManny]

Good write up on the problems we've been having on offense:

For Brady, all routes lead to Welker, Moss - The Boston Globe

As much as people would like to indict O'Brien, mostly because he is an unknown/dispensible, I do think at least half the blame has to go to Brady.

Unlike the early years, the number of receptions per player, after Moss/Welker, is a steep drop, and the next highest number of receptions belongs to Faulk which is a bad sign because we know he is usually in there as a down specialist. He is not a receiver in the true sense of the word.

I have not put my finger on it yet, but I am wagering that this is contributing in a big way to our 2nd half woes.

The last several weeks, Brady has brought up the one-dimensionality of the offense in either his press conference or in his EEI interviews. The idea that he, or Bill O'Brien, or Bill Belichick, would somehow not realize that defenses are taking out Wes Welker & Randy Moss yet folks on patsfans.com could diagnose the issue...that doesn't fly to me. He, like the rest of the offensive coaching staff, is very cognizant of the issue.

Which tells me that either the coaching staff or Brady doesn't have faith in the other options or they aren't getting open. Belichick and Brady both intimated it was the latter in their WEEI appearances this week.

And let's face it, when the 3rd wide receiver on a air-attack team is either a career special teamer or a 7th rounder rookie QB turned wideout [with a broken arm], you have a serious problem. We miss Stallworth & Gaffney in this offense. There's no question about it. The 3rd wideout on this team is a starting wide receiver, they play between 50-75% of the snaps. It needs to be an above average wide receiver with experience in the league. And it's not.

It's a fundamental problem of the make-up of our team: No matter how good your first two options are, the defense can take them out if they allocate enough defenders to them. End of story. Belichick, Brady & Bill O'Brien are going to have to come up with an answer. I think 2WR, 2TE is probably the best answer they have, since I don't think Aiken or Edelman with his broken arm are creating mismatches right now. Who has a better chance of catching the ball, Aiken in 1-on-1 or Wes Welker sitting down between two defenders? Or Moss in double coverage? Aiken is still the last option in those progressions.

 

[patriots pam]

I like the way the OL is blocking. The defense not only knows when a pass is coming so they don't need to worry about run, and they can just attack the OL, but beyond that they also get a good jump at the snap because we're hiking the ball with 1 or 2 seconds left on the clock.

I have to say that during this season, I now have become very conscious of the play clock at the start of nearly every play, whereas I normally didn't feel the need to really pay attention unless it was winding down to the last few seconds. Even then, I rarely worried about it when the Pats were on O because I just trusted them to just get the ball off in time. I tended to pay more attention when the opposing team was on offense and the clock got close, because I usually wouldn't be familiar enough with their play clock management and, hey who doesn't like to see the opp offense get a DOG penalty, right? And although my memory of these kinds of issues tends to fade after a season is over, I don't recall being so aware of the play clock in previous seasons during the TFB era. :confused2:

Long story short[er], I guess it's not just my imagination, and it's really irritating me that I have to be continually distracted by worrying about the clock now on pretty much every play. Not only for potential DOG, but for it allowing defenses too much time to adjust as you mentioned. Like I don't already have enough stress during a game!

 

[Rob0729]

So, the old Brady never made mistakes?

Charlie Weis, a master at keeping the D off balance, made Testaverde look like an All-Pro.

He brought up Brady.

That's exactly what we're missing.

Weis was also stripped of his play calling duties by Parcells after Testaverde went down. When Parcells took over the play calling duties, Ray Lucas looked like an All Pro. Testaverde's best year as a pro by far was as a Raven in 1996 (4117 yards and 33 TDs) and Weis was in New England that year.

In 2003, the Pats had 4 games (or a quarter of the season) where they didn't score an offensive TD. They were 17th in total offense, 12th in scoring offense, and 15th in 3rd down conversion percentage.

In 2002, the Pats scored 14 points or less 4 times and 17 points or less six times.

I know the legend of Charlie Weis has been blown out into inhuman proportions, but let's deal with reality here. Most of people's memories of Weis seem to be of the 2004 season that has been now spread out to his entire career. Weis was a very good OC, but he had only one great year and the rest was good. In 2003, I would say it was mediocre and it was hidden by a historic defense.

 

[iapatsfan]

The last several weeks, Brady has brought up the one-dimensionality of the offense in either his press conference or in his EEI interviews. The idea that he, or Bill O'Brien, or Bill Belichick, would somehow not realize that defenses are taking out Wes Welker & Randy Moss yet folks on patsfans.com could diagnose the issue...that doesn't fly to me. He, like the rest of the offensive coaching staff, is very cognizant of the issue.

Which tells me that either the coaching staff or Brady doesn't have faith in the other options or they aren't getting open. Belichick and Brady both intimated it was the latter in their WEEI appearances this week.

And let's face it, when the 3rd wide receiver on a air-attack team is either a career special teamer or a 7th rounder rookie QB turned wideout [with a broken arm], you have a serious problem. We miss Stallworth & Gaffney in this offense. There's no question about it.

It's a fundamental problem of the make-up of our team: No matter how good your first two options are, the defense can take them out if they allocate enough defenders to them. End of story. Belichick, Brady & Bill O'Brien are going to have to come up with an answer. I think 2WR, 2TE is probably the best answer they have, since I don't think Aiken or Edelman with his broken arm are creating mismatches right now.

The problem has been painfully obvious to me all year. The Pats went from a team with 4-5 quality WR options (Branch, Patten, Brown, Givens, Gaffney, Stallworth, etc) to a team that only has two. Like I said in my previous post, the Pats old philosophy seemed to be that our 3rd, 4th and 5th WR options will be better than your 3rd, 4th and 5th DB options. With this philosophy, you don't need the top shelf WRs because the D cannot afford to double anyone since there are so many places for Brady to go with the ball. The current philosophy is to challenge the D with 2 top shelf guys and a bunch of below avg WR options. Any D can slow down an O if you only have 2 places to go with the ball. That is all the Pats have. I was a lot more confident when the Pats went spread with personnel consisting of Branch, Givens, Brown, Patten and TE than I am with Moss, Welker, Aiken, Edleman and Faulk or Watson. Nobody worries about options 3-5 anymore.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

This team didn't look good out of the gate over the last two seasons. It's the same team that couldn't generate any offense in SB 42 only now it has less established talent on offense. Over time more teams have found a way to implement varying principles of the blueprint within the limits of their individual personnel. When we face one who cannot we coast. Unfortunately almost everyone can find an aspect of the blueprint to implement. It wasn't the one time anomoly (driven opponent, perfect plan and personnel to run it meets OL has it's worst showing all season) Bill thought it would be. Trying to find a way to scheme around that with even less talent than in prior years is what you're painfully watching at the moment. It's not the OC or the QB but a lack of talent (OL, WR, RB) coupled with inconsistent execution from existing talent that has resulted in an offense that periodically struggles to get up and then alternately struggles even more to stay up. Cassel got the burden of the blame last season when in fact it had less to do with him than his surrounding cast. Things got easier down the stretch that season because the schedule was lighter and teams weren't gunning for them for obvious reasons, and they weren't looking for the fix so much as trying to make the best out of the hand they were dealt on a still very veteran, professional team. Doing that this season would represent an admission they don't want to make just yet, particularly in conjunction with the lack of leadership and experience they are encountering on a defense in transition, so they are fighting back by almost doggedly persisting in running this offense as it was designed be run. I think they believe if they can't find a way to it won't matter what else they manage to do well because it won't be enough.

 

[BradyManny]

The problem has been painfully obvious to me all year. The Pats went from a team with 4-5 quality WR options (Branch, Patten, Brown, Givens, Gaffney, Stallworth, etc) to a team that only has two. Like I said in my previous post, the Pats old philosophy seemed to be that our 3rd, 4th and 5th WR options will be better than your 3rd, 4th and 5th DB options. With this philosophy, you don't need the top shelf WRs because the D cannot afford to double anyone since there are so many places for Brady to go with the ball. The current philosophy is to challenge the D with 2 top shelf guys and a bunch of below avg WR options. Any D can slow down an O if you only have 2 places to go with the ball. That is all the Pats have. I was a lot more confident when the Pats went spread with personnel consisting of Branch, Givens, Brown, Patten and TE than I am with Moss, Welker, Aiken, Edleman and Faulk or Watson. Nobody worries about options 3-5 anymore.

I agree 100%. Very well put.

And like you say, I think having a #3 wideout that is better than their #3DB is huge and it was a huge part of our success in the past.

That said, I can't blame the FO for the state of the wide receiver position. How were they supposed to know Lewis AND Galloway would be busts AND Tate would re-injure his knee. They had two veteran wideouts and one high-ceiling draft pick in the mix for that #3 spot, and none of them could take it.

 

[upstater1]

Do you mean over the last 2 games?

Certainly no one could like the way the OL blocked against NO and Miami when a 3 man rush was getting pressure on Brady consistently, in some cases before he even completed his dropback.

I think the OL is playing with one hand tied behind their back by the playcalling.

After the Miami game, I wrote a long thread in which I showed that Brady was hiking the ball with one second on the clock from the empty backfield set.

The Miami DL (4 of them) were firing off the ball BEFORE our center!! Before our linemen!

This should not be happening.

When you allow the defense to attack like that, and you can't make them pay, your offense will suffer. Maybe it's Brady's fault that we can't make them pay but I'd like to see them not be so confident in attacking us. Becoming more unpredictable would add that element.