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Junior watch list


12/21/09 - Great news for Iowa fans today, as defensive end Adrian Clayborn will return for his senior season in 2010, according to The (Cedar Rapids) Gazette's Marc Morehouse. A first-team All-Big Ten selection, Clayborn was a beast this fall for Iowa. He recorded 18 tackles for loss, 9.5 sacks, nine quarterback hurries, four forced fumbles and a blocked punt that he returned for a touchdown against Penn State, the team's signature play of the season. Despite his stellar season, Clayborn seemed like a good bet to remain at Iowa. He'll anchor a strong defensive line in 2010. The attention now turns to left tackle Bryan Bulaga and cornerback Amari Spievey, who both have NFL decisions to make. - Adam Rittenberg, ESPN via NFL Draft Scout
 
Some recent notes on the junior watch list from TFYdraft:

TFY

The most interesting note is concerning Texas A & M junior Von Miller, 6'3", 240#, who led the NCAA in sacks this year with 17: "Texas A&M defender Von Miller is also likely to play one more college game before entering the draft. Scouts have told us the Aggie junior ranks just behind Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy on the list of the top defenders from the Big 12. Southwest area scouts think Miller, who is projected as an outside linebacker by most, could easily add 15-pounds to his frame and stay at the defensive end position. He presently grades out as a second round choice but sources have told us the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have shown a lot of interest in Miller and could over-draft him in round one."

Von Miller with 15 more lbs. could be another Clay Matthews kind of guy. He's got a deadly 1st step and is a brilliant pass rusher, but it's not clear that he has the bulk to set the edge or that he would be a 3 round player for BB. Then again, that's what I thought about Matthews, too.
 
Some recent notes on the junior watch list from TFYdraft:

TFY

The most interesting note is concerning Texas A & M junior Von Miller, 6'3", 240#, who led the NCAA in sacks this year with 17: "Texas A&M defender Von Miller is also likely to play one more college game before entering the draft. Scouts have told us the Aggie junior ranks just behind Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy on the list of the top defenders from the Big 12. Southwest area scouts think Miller, who is projected as an outside linebacker by most, could easily add 15-pounds to his frame and stay at the defensive end position. He presently grades out as a second round choice but sources have told us the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots have shown a lot of interest in Miller and could over-draft him in round one."

Von Miller with 15 more lbs. could be another Clay Matthews kind of guy. He's got a deadly 1st step and is a brilliant pass rusher, but it's not clear that he has the bulk to set the edge or that he would be a 3 round player for BB. Then again, that's what I thought about Matthews, too.
Well, Matthews isn't a "3 round player" for BB, he's not even a three down player for him - not that many Matthews fans would understand the scheme differences which might have driven the draft decisions last Spring.
 
Well, Matthews isn't a "3 round player" for BB, he's not even a three down player for him - not that many Matthews fans would understand the scheme differences which might have driven the draft decisions last Spring.

From what I'm understanding, the Pats use bigger OLBs than most schemes, and Matthews was too small to set the edge against the run. Is this correct?
 
Well, Matthews isn't a "3 round player" for BB, he's not even a three down player for him - not that many Matthews fans would understand the scheme differences which might have driven the draft decisions last Spring.

No fair introducing subtleties like schematic fit when Matthews' 11 sacks are staring you in the face. :D

Have you watched Von Miller at all? I don't see him being a good schematic fit for the Pats at all, despite the TFYdraft reports of interest from the team. He's a deadly quick pass rusher, but he can't set the edge or stack and shed to save his life.
 
From what I'm understanding, the Pats use bigger OLBs than most schemes, and Matthews was too small to set the edge against the run. Is this correct?

I'm not an expert on variations of the 3-4 scheme and how BB's approach differs from others. Perhaps someone like Jays52 or Bakes781 could discuss that. But as I understand it, BB looks for some of the following form his OLBs:

1. They have to be able to read the play and diagnose run vs. pass. They aren't primarily just pass rushers. As DaBruinz noted last offseason when we discussed this topic, "the primary job of the OLB is to diagnose what the play is. The OLB has to be able to discern between a run and pass play. Once he has done that, he has to be able to set the edge on a run play on a rushing play to his side. Or, if its a passing play, rush the passer where someone else picks up the TE and or the RB, or drop back into coverage himself if one of the other line backers is taking up the rush. The Patriots, under Belichick in the 3-4, have never had an OLB JUST put his ears back and rush the Passer on every down."

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/223412-our-1-need-mile.html (post #31)

BB demands more "read and react" skills from his OLBs than do some other 3-4 schemes, such as those run by Dallas and San Diego, where the OLB is primarily a pass rusher, or even Pittsburgh where the LBs tend to be disruptors rather than reading plays and reacting.

2. BB sets a huge amount of value on the OLB being able to "set the edge" in a run play. This requires the OLB to function like a lineman and take on blockers. The LBs aren't so much protected by linemen (the way they are in Baltimore's scheme, for example), they function almost like linemen in taking on blockers and disengaging from them. This in turn generally requires a bigger and more physical OLB than, for example, speed rushers such as Elvis Dumervil and James Harrison, and puts a premium on skills like stacking and shedding. This is particular true for the "strongside" OLB, which Mike Vrabel played. The "weakside" OLB (played by Roosevelt Colvin and later Adalius Thomas) doesn't have quite as much focus on taking on linemen and is a bit more free to pass rush, but still BB places a relatively high value on setting the edge and containing running plays. This disfavors OLBs who are too slight to take on blockers and set the edge, and OLBs who stylistically tend to run around blockers to make the tackle. Matthews had this reputation coming out of USC.

3. BB uses his OLBs in coverage more than teams such as Dallas and San Diego, so finding players with coverage skills is a plus. That was one of the major factors in targeting a guy like Adalius Thomas in FA. This might have been a question mark for guys like Larry English who were more DE's who rushed the passer all the time. Matthews had superb cover skills, having started as a safety at USC.

4. BB tends to require a lot of discipline from his players. He places a premium on players sticking to their assigned area/responsibility and the defense functioning as whole, and disfavors players who tend to freelance a lot.

5. BB places a lot of value on height in his OLBs, and particularly likes tall players with long arms who can get their arms up and clog the passing lanes.

BB doesn't seem to particularly place a lot of value on stats like sacks. Only once in 10 years have we had a LB get more than 10 sacks (12.5 from Vrabel in 2007, when we were ahead a lot and could rush the passer more), and only 3 LBs have had as many as 8 sacks in the past decade (Vrabel, Colvin and McGinest). He wants OLBs who can do a variety of things well and have the discipline to do their job so that the whole defense functions the way he wants it to. The Pats 3-4 OLB is a less glamorous position than that on Pittsburgh, San Diego, or Dallas, for example. It's a blue collar job.

My impression of Matthews is that he is a heat seeking missile who is great rushing the passer and running around blockers to make tackles, and great dropping into coverage, but that he may lack the discipline to fit into BB's scheme, some of the height that BB likes, and some of the bulk and physicality to take on blockers and set the edge the way BB likes. That's not meant as a criticism of Matthews, who is turning out to be a fabulous player, more a comment on how he fits to BB's scheme. Whether BB should be more flexible in the type of players he targets is a whole different issue.

For all of those clamoring now that we should have taken Matthews, note that last spring almost 75% of those polled on this board preferred Larry English at 3-4 OLB for the Pats. English currently has 2 sacks as a backup at San Diego, but could very possibly take over next year as the starter for Shawne Merriman.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england.../13/224567-larry-english-clay-matthews.html

I'll defer to my more learned colleagues if they disagree with any of the above. I'm not a schematic analyst by any means.
 
To follow up on the last post regarding BB's preferred OLB characteristics, to do all of the things that BB desires from his OLBs requires size (bulk), height (length), strength (especially to take on blockers), speed, quickness, lateral agility, loose hips (to drop back into coverage and shadow TEs), safety-like coverage skills, 3-4 DL-like skills in terms of taking on blockers (stacking and shedding), pass rushing skills, a blue-collar work ethic, quite a bit of intelligence to read and react and diagnose plays, and the mental discipline to function within a complex system and not free lance. Add in BB's interest in high-character, high motor kids, and it becomes even tougher.

Not an easy combination of skills to find. Which is why some of us (rightly or wrongly) get very excited when we see a prospect who seems to possess most or all of those attributes, like Connor Barwin did last year, or Austen Lane does this year, and (rightly or wrongly) are willing to overlook things like amount of experience at a position or level of competition to a certain extent. Even guys who are not perfect fits but who possess a lot of those skills, like Robert Ayers, Jeremy Beal, Greg Romeus, Greg Hardy and Jason Pierre-Paul get extra attention because it is so difficult to find a perfect match.
 
From what I'm understanding, the Pats use bigger OLBs than most schemes, and Matthews was too small to set the edge against the run. Is this correct?
Mayoclinic did a good job of discussing scheme differences.

What we know for sure is BB felt picking up an extra fifth round pick to move down three places to 26 was a better value than picking at 23. He then found Green Bay's offer of a second, two thirds, and another fifth a better value than picking at 26 - which is why Green Bay has Matthews, they paid for him. BB felt he had adequate depth at OLB (per interviews after the draft). Arguably he was right, if the offense was functioning better the defense would be playing with a lead and could unleash the dogs more often (see 4th Qtr, TBC @Buffalo; 2007, Vrabel up until Colvin to IR).
 
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Two other comments.

First, Mathews had 2 sacks against Pittsburgh and had a great individual performance, but Green Bay gave up 530+ yards and 37 points to the Steelers and lost the game. BB places a lot more value on how the defense functions as a whole than on individual performances. Whether his defense stifles playmakers is another issue to be discussed. But certainly while Matthews won his individual battle, GB lost the war.

Second, a "perfect fit" who matches BB's criteria at DE/OLB would almost certainly be a top 10-15 pick. Such was the case with DeMarcus Ware in 2005. North Carolina's Robert Quinn looks like he could be a perfect fit in 2011-2012, and is alread projected to be a top-15 possible top-10 pick whenever he declares. So unless we have a very high pick (which we may have in 2011 with Oakland's pick, when Quinn would be a distinct possibility), then we have to look at guys who either lack some of the ideal characteristics (height, speed, strength, agility, etc.) or slip due to a lack of experience (Barwin) or lack of competition (Lane). Or we get too picky and miss out altogether, which is what we've mostly done over the past decade, as has been discussed elsewhere.
 
12/22/09 - With encouragement from coach Pat Hill, Fresno State junior running back Ryan Mathews is turning pro. Mathews said Monday he has signed with an agent and will forgo his senior season to enter the NFL draft. He made the decision after a 4 1/2-hour meeting with Hill and the Fresno State coaching staff Sunday night. "Coach Hill said, 'I think you need to go. You've done what you needed to do here,'" said Mathews, a second-team All-American who has spent most of this season leading the nation in rushing. "I trust his decision, so I'm going to go with it. I think it's my time to go to the next level, see what I can do there. It's a good thing." Mathews said he had been leaning toward staying at Fresno State -- attracted by the idea of remaining near friends, playing before a fan base that adores him and completing his degree. A son now gets his chance for payback Bowl loss lingering with Bulldogs Wyoming corrals 'Dogs But, as he said he would during the season, Mathews followed Hill's advice. "Me and Coach have a great bond," Mathews said. "If he had told me he wanted me to stay, I would have..."But he was the main one last night that really pushed me over the line." Mathews signed with Stockton-based Frank Bauer of Sun West Sports & Associates, which also represents Hill. Hill said he would not try to coax Mathews to stay, though he acknowledged the Bulldogs would be in significantly better shape had the star running back returned. Mathews set Fresno State's single-season rushing record this year with 1,808 yards, which currently leads the nation. - Bryant-Jon Anteola, The Fresno Bee via NFL Draft Scout

Pat Hill knows the life span of a RB's legs, that's looking first to a players best interests. I respect the heck out of that guy and would hope he has a coach in the pipeline to replace Dante Scarnecchia when that day finally comes (hopefully many years from now).
 
12/22/09 - With encouragement from coach Pat Hill, Fresno State junior running back Ryan Mathews is turning pro. Mathews said Monday he has signed with an agent and will forgo his senior season to enter the NFL draft. He made the decision after a 4 1/2-hour meeting with Hill and the Fresno State coaching staff Sunday night. "Coach Hill said, 'I think you need to go. You've done what you needed to do here,'" said Mathews, a second-team All-American who has spent most of this season leading the nation in rushing. "I trust his decision, so I'm going to go with it. I think it's my time to go to the next level, see what I can do there. It's a good thing." Mathews said he had been leaning toward staying at Fresno State -- attracted by the idea of remaining near friends, playing before a fan base that adores him and completing his degree. A son now gets his chance for payback Bowl loss lingering with Bulldogs Wyoming corrals 'Dogs But, as he said he would during the season, Mathews followed Hill's advice. "Me and Coach have a great bond," Mathews said. "If he had told me he wanted me to stay, I would have..."But he was the main one last night that really pushed me over the line." Mathews signed with Stockton-based Frank Bauer of Sun West Sports & Associates, which also represents Hill. Hill said he would not try to coax Mathews to stay, though he acknowledged the Bulldogs would be in significantly better shape had the star running back returned. Mathews set Fresno State's single-season rushing record this year with 1,808 yards, which currently leads the nation. - Bryant-Jon Anteola, The Fresno Bee via NFL Draft Scout

Pat Hill knows the life span of a RB's legs, that's looking first to a players best interests. I respect the heck out of that guy and would hope he has a coach in the pipeline to replace Dante Scarnecchia when that day finally comes (hopefully many years from now).

Classy move. Even Mathews' teammates were exhorting him to leave, arguing that staying another year would only expose him to injury and more wear and tear. That also says a lot of Mathews, since his teammates obviously respect and like him.
 
Williams is an outstanding route runner. Would make a great #3.
 
Two other comments.

First, Mathews had 2 sacks against Pittsburgh and had a great individual performance, but Green Bay gave up 530+ yards and 37 points to the Steelers and lost the game. BB places a lot more value on how the defense functions as a whole than on individual performances. Whether his defense stifles playmakers is another issue to be discussed. But certainly while Matthews won his individual battle, GB lost the war.

Second, a "perfect fit" who matches BB's criteria at DE/OLB would almost certainly be a top 10-15 pick. Such was the case with DeMarcus Ware in 2005. North Carolina's Robert Quinn looks like he could be a perfect fit in 2011-2012, and is alread projected to be a top-15 possible top-10 pick whenever he declares. So unless we have a very high pick (which we may have in 2011 with Oakland's pick, when Quinn would be a distinct possibility), then we have to look at guys who either lack some of the ideal characteristics (height, speed, strength, agility, etc.) or slip due to a lack of experience (Barwin) or lack of competition (Lane). Or we get too picky and miss out altogether, which is what we've mostly done over the past decade, as has been discussed elsewhere.

I used to think that BB was being too picky concerning this position, but now I am leaning toward "trust" or more precisely a lack thereof.

I do not think BB trusts young players enough to give them:

1.) The responsibility on the field to play the position and
2.) the time (I am guessing a year or two at the minimum) necessary to "coach up" a young player up only to see him leave after 3 years as a free agent for huge pass rushing dollars.

Which leads us to the BB alternative, veteran retreads. If I were Babin's agent, I would have BB's cell on speed dial and at 12:01am of free agency's first day, I would call BB's cell and whisper "Mike Vrabel clone" in BB's ear.
 
Still unofficial, but USC junior DE Everson Griffen is reportedly declaring for the draft. Griffen had been expected to return, so this is a bit of a surprise. He's 6'3" and bulked up from 265 to 280 this year to play DE, but has terrific athleticism (reportedly 4.6 speed) and agility, and very long arms. He could go anywhere from top 20 to early 3rd round right now. Another guy to add to the list of potential DE/OLB conversion prospects.

USC's Everson Griffen says he's turning pro | The Fabulous Forum | Los Angeles Times
 


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