Playoff scenarios/predictions: Win the next 2 - clinches playoff berth?

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I just looked through the standings and it seems if we can win @ Buffalo and vs. Jax, we clinch at least the final wild card spot. In that case the best that the Jets and Ravens could do is tie us, and we own tiebreakers over both teams. Miami could still tie us and take the division, but we would still get a wild card for sure. If any of that's wrong please let me know.

The #2 seed is within reach but highly unlikely the way SD is playing. We could catch Cincinatti for the 3 spot by winning one more game than they do in the final 3 weeks, but then the tiebreak would be strength of schedule which is hard to predict now. That all could change if Cincy beats SD this week however. Either way, little advantage to the 3 seed especially without knowing who will finish 5 and 6. And I'm not sure I'd even want to face SD over Indy right now.

My prediction for the AFC finish:
1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Pats
5. Ravens
6. Broncos

Sets up a rematch with Ravens who will win out to finish 10-6 while the Dolphins and Jets each drop a game. Not the first round matchup I want, they'll be on a roll and fired up over week 4. But I think we'd still pull it out and head to Indy. In all honesty I'd rather face any of the Jets/Fins/Broncs before the dirty Ravens.

 

[supafly]

You're right--win the next 2 and we clinch a WC at worst going into the last game at HOU for the division crown.

 

[alvinnf]

Going to SD at any point is going to be a death sentence for this team. Much better matchup against Indy. Of course, if we even get that far?

 

[mayoclinic]

My prediction for the AFC finish:
1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Pats
5. Ravens
6. Broncos

I think it will be:

1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Pats
5. Broncos
6. Ravens

Either way, I think we would end up hosting Baltimore, because the Ravens and Bengals are in the same division, though I'm not 100% sure of NFL rules in this area.

 

[QB12]

I think it will be:

1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Pats
5. Broncos
6. Ravens

Either way, I think we would end up hosting Baltimore, because the Ravens and Bengals are in the same division, though I'm not 100% sure of NFL rules in this area.

I don't think the NFL bans intra-division playoff games if that results from the normal seedings. Remember in '06 we hosted and beat the Wild-Card Jets.

QB12

 

[jmt57]

Either way, I think we would end up hosting Baltimore, because the Ravens and Bengals are in the same division, though I'm not 100% sure of NFL rules in this area.

For playoff seedings, being in the same division does not come in to play. It's #6 at #3, and #5 at #4.

When you look at the teams in the hunt (other than the Colts), nothing is remotely close to being set in stone. There's about seven teams that could land anywhere from #2 to missing the playoffs, plus a few more that could still get in with three wins and a little bit of help.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

For playoff seedings, being in the same division does not come in to play. It's #6 at #3, and #5 at #4.

When you look at the teams in the hunt (other than the Colts), nothing is remotely close to being set in stone. There's about seven teams that could land anywhere from #2 to missing the playoffs, plus a few more that could still get in with three wins and a little bit of help.

Yes, details here including everyone's next 3 opponents...

NFL 2009 Playoff Race - CBSSports.com

 

[zipster9]

I'd prefer if the Patriots get the 3rd seed. I think they have a better chance in SanDiego, than the Colts. The Patriots does not have luck in Indy in a dome.

If Cincy loses and Patriots win the 3 games. They are tied. Though, I dont know who wins the tie-breaker..

 

[Metaphors]

I'd prefer if the Patriots get the 3rd seed. I think they have a better chance in SanDiego, than the Colts. The Patriots does not have luck in Indy in a dome.

This would give us the best chance of hosting the AFCC game. Indy could be a one-n-done but I'm not optimistic that Cincy or Denver are the teams to do it. The Pats getting the #3 would be the Colts dream scenario. They wouldn't have to face the Pats and the Chargers...and if they faced the Pats it would be after a tough west coast trip. This was the formula for the Colts championship run in 2006.

My reason for preferring the #4 seed is to put off the west coast trip as long as possible and get the Colts after a month without meaningful games. This works if you assume that the Chargers will win their game (not a given but a solid bet) and all you are doing is arranging the order of the Colts/Chargers road games.

 

[Wax Frog]

Rather than worry about seedings and matchups, the way the season's gone I'm just going to be thankful for a 17th game, if it happens...

 

[eagle eye]

My prediction for the AFC finish:
1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Pats
4. Bengals
5. Broncos
6. Jets

I think Baltimore lose to the Steelers, I think the Bengals lose two of their remaining three @ San Diego and @ NYJ.

I think the Jets win their last three, the Colts game is their toughest but if they go full blitz early and get to Manning I can see him being taken out of the game to protect him.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Yeah a ton can still happen. On the subject of Baltimore, I think they're on the rise, and Pittsburgh is on the fall. Hard to see Pittsburgh winning that one with nothing on the line.

I'm also in favor of playing Indy before SD. Mainly because if we DO lose that game, I would much rather the Colts have to go through both us and SD instead of another '06 situation where they play a mediocre 'tough' team in round 2 and let us and SD beat each other up. Not to say Cincy and co. are jabroni teams but I just think us and the Chargers are most likely to take them down.

I had a dream recently where we played the Saints again and it was a low score game in the second half (yeah, probably not going to come true with that last factoid) but Fred Taylor broke the game open on a big play. Not sure how it ended but it had a good feel. It's similar to a dream I had in 2001 that we met up with the Steelers and a huge play had put us up big. When Antwan Harris ran in that blocked FG for a TD it truly felt like I was reliving that dream. Strange but very similar to the Saints dream, very vague yet had a good feel to it. Well let's just hope for the best

 

[A.C Vegas]

On yahoo i found a playoff predictor that you can control mean you pic who wins and things like that and i discovered that if the pats win out and the Chargers lose out the pats acan still get the 2 seed

 

[Ajax Pats Fan]

Well, we all know winning 3 gives us the Division, however, winning 2 out of 3 does not give us a lock on a wildcard.

Winning 2 gives us 10-6 and let's assume Miami wins out and goes 10-6. Division is there's based on conf record, since we split head to head, div records are the same, common opponents would be the same, and next tie-breaker (Conf Record) we lose based on 5 losses to their 4.
Now, even if Jets tie us at 10-6 we win tie breaker based on division record so we're 2nd in division regardless.

I believe, from there, the only way we don't get a wild card is if we tie with Bal and Den. It is probable that Denver would lose at Philly this week and then win out vs KC and Oak. We would lose based on Bal and Den both having only 4 conference losses and we would have 5. If Den wins out or loses 2 of 3 and Bal wins out then we would only be tied with Bal and beat them head to head.

So in summary, win 2 out 3. Have Denver either win out or lose 2 of 3 and that guarantees a wild card.

Sorry for the long dissertation

Unless of course Jacksonville screws everything up and wins out. But that's another chapter!!!!!!!!

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I believe, from there, the only way we don't get a wild card is if we tie with Bal and Den. It is probable that Denver would lose at Philly this week and then win out vs KC and Oak. We would lose based on Bal and Den both having only 4 conference losses and we would have 5. If Den wins out or loses 2 of 3 and Bal wins out then we would only be tied with Bal and beat them head to head.

That's actually the situation I was curious about, these 3 way ties and how the mechanism works. That situation would truly suck especially after losing out on every tiebreaker last season and '02. You're right though that's the way it would go down, so nothing is guaranteed even if we win the next 2. $*%(!!! I hate tiebreakers... If Miami doesn't lose @ Tennessee this weekend I have a feeling we will HAVE to win out.

 

[Ring 6]

I just looked through the standings and it seems if we can win @ Buffalo and vs. Jax, we clinch at least the final wild card spot. In that case the best that the Jets and Ravens could do is tie us, and we own tiebreakers over both teams. Miami could still tie us and take the division, but we would still get a wild card for sure. If any of that's wrong please let me know.

The #2 seed is within reach but highly unlikely the way SD is playing. We could catch Cincinatti for the 3 spot by winning one more game than they do in the final 3 weeks, but then the tiebreak would be strength of schedule which is hard to predict now. That all could change if Cincy beats SD this week however. Either way, little advantage to the 3 seed especially without knowing who will finish 5 and 6. And I'm not sure I'd even want to face SD over Indy right now.

My prediction for the AFC finish:
1. Colts
2. Chargers
3. Bengals
4. Pats
5. Ravens
6. Broncos

Sets up a rematch with Ravens who will win out to finish 10-6 while the Dolphins and Jets each drop a game. Not the first round matchup I want, they'll be on a roll and fired up over week 4. But I think we'd still pull it out and head to Indy. In all honesty I'd rather face any of the Jets/Fins/Broncs before the dirty Ravens.

I think you are overanalyzing when you say the matchup you dont want is the team that has been playing very poorly, because you think they will win their next 3 and be on a roll.

 

[Patspsycho]

On yahoo i found a playoff predictor that you can control mean you pic who wins and things like that and i discovered that if the pats win out and the Chargers lose out the pats acan still get the 2 seed

Do you have the link for this? I would like to check it out. Thanks.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think you are overanalyzing when you say the matchup you dont want is the team that has been playing very poorly, because you think they will win their next 3 and be on a roll.

I don't think they're playing all that poorly though... they've lost alot of close games including almost beating us. If they build momentum they're a scary matchup. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks...

 

[SVN]

jets have the easiest of the schedules so they could make it if some chips fall their way.

 

[eagle eye]

Do you have the link for this? I would like to check it out. Thanks.

I googled yahoo nfl playoffs predicter and low and behold the first thing that came up was this NFL - Playoff Scenario Generator- Yahoo! Sports