Patriots have a Top 10 defense

[Disco Volante]

PPG

1) Bengals - 15.6
2) Colts - 16.8
3) Broncos - 16.8
4) Jets - 17.3
5) Cowboys - 17.8
6) Ravens - 17.9
7) Patriots - 18.7
8) Packers - 19.1
9) Steelers - 19.2
10) Vikings - 19.4

Can someone please try to explain to me why you feel they're "one of the worst in the NFL" or not even solid?

 

[patsfan-1982]

they have given up all most 1000 yerd and 60 points the last two weeks

i can under stand the saints geting all most 400 yerds passing

but the fish where 27th in the NFL in passing befor sundays game and they only had one WR with more the 300 yerds and if they can ligh this them up it's not a good thing

its not the worst D in the NFL but it's not a patriots D it's like seeing the ravens and steelers give up 40 points a game its just dose not happen

 

[tart]

I think both sides have a tendency to exaggerate their point, as is the case in much of life it is a polarizing debate. Either its terrible or a top 10 defense, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and they are an average defense, in the 14-16 area.

But because you asked for the reasoning behind those who believe the defense is bad (or not as good as you believe it is), I will present what I believe is their case:

The teams we have played and their Total Offense ranking:

Bills - 29th
Jets - 20th
Falcons - 16th
Ravens - 15th
Broncos - 17th
Titans - 13th
Bucs - 27th
Fins - 19th
Colts - 4th
Jets - 20th
Saints - 1st
Fins - 19th

Avg - 16.667

So besides the Saints and Colts games (in which the defense gave up 34 and 35 respectively) the defense has gone against offenses ranked 15th or lower every week except for the Titans, and the Titans ranking is a bit deceiving considering we played them pre-Vince Young when their total offense was much lower. There is certainly a case to be made that they have at least taken care of business versus the opponents they were given, but it is tough to say they are as good as those PPG statistics indicate. For what its worth, Football Outsiders and their opponent adjusted stats put the Pats as the 15th best defense.

I also believe another reason is the timing of the defense. It seems like the bigger the moment the worse the defense gets. This has a lasting impact on people as they are far more likely to remember the 4th quarter collapse vs the Colts than to think back to the shut-out against the Titans, even though statistically both count evenly as 1 game. Their inability to get it done when it matters is concerning. Certainly the offense hasn't done their job to close out games on that side of the ball, but the defense hasn't stepped up to the added responsibility and closed out games either. From the Ravens drive that was luckily saved due to a drop by Mason, to the OT drive by the Broncos, to the entire 4th quarter against the Colts, to the entire Saints game, to the game-winning drive by the Fins. Holding the Titans and Bucs to a combined 7 points is great and certainly a nice stat-booster, but what is the point if you can't stop teams when we need a game-winning stop or in high-pressure games (Saints)?

Hopefully this helps you understand where they are coming from.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

Our team dominates T.O.P

also the breakdown against the colts and saints... other than that theyve been alright

 

[DarrylS]

DVOA.. Football outsiders, weighs the opponent in their scale..

Last week we were #15...

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2009 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

 

[sbpatfan]

Every loss this season besides the Saints game has been due to second half errors. A poor performance in all three facets of the game in the third / fourth. Coaching, offense, and the defense have all screwed it up in key situations. No part of this team is clutch right now. That's the problem.

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

This should be a 10-2 team, but its a immature team that does not know how to win down the stretch... Brady ,Welker and Moss can only do so much..

 

[Patriot_in_NY]

This should be a 10-2 team, but its a immature team that does not know how to win down the stretch... Brady ,Welker and Moss can only do so much..

Yup, and the O-line (without Seabass), is old and getting gassed in the second half. They cannot get ANY pass protection going in the second half and there are times I am very afraid for Brady. Teams are teeing off in the second half (on our overly predictable shotgun tendencies) and getting pressure rushing 3. You cannot have success offensively that way. Kazur gets rolled on every play in the second half of games. Koppen ain't much better. Even greats like TB and Manning can't operate like that.

It's easy to blame the D, but the fact is that it is comprised of mostly rooks or 2nd years. Many of the older guys are from other systems and are still learning ours. AD and Green, who are vets, but not playing well. the only vet that is holding up his end of the bargin is Wilfork (big surprise ). Everyone else is average or sub-par. Not exactly a recipe for success.

 

[PatsBoy12]

Yup, and the O-line (without Seabass), is old and getting gassed in the second half. They cannot get ANY pass protection going in the second half and there are times I am very afraid for Brady. Teams are teeing off in the second half (on our overly predictable shotgun tendencies) and getting pressure rushing 3. You cannot have success offensively that way. Kazur gets rolled on every play in the second half of games. Koppen ain't much better. Even greats like TB and Manning can't operate like that.

It's easy to blame the D, but the fact is that it is comprised of mostly rooks or 2nd years. Many of the older guys are from other systems and are still learning ours. AD and Green, who are vets, but not playing well. the only vet that is holding up his end of the bargin is Wilfork (big surprise ). Everyone else is average or sub-par. Not exactly a recipe for success.

Yeah, I hear you.

 

[Tunescribe]

I think both sides have a tendency to exaggerate their point, as is the case in much of life it is a polarizing debate. Either its terrible or a top 10 defense, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and they are an average defense, in the 14-16 area.

But because you asked for the reasoning behind those who believe the defense is bad (or not as good as you believe it is), I will present what I believe is their case:

The teams we have played and their Total Offense ranking:

Bills - 29th
Jets - 20th
Falcons - 16th
Ravens - 15th
Broncos - 17th
Titans - 13th
Bucs - 27th
Fins - 19th
Colts - 4th
Jets - 20th
Saints - 1st
Fins - 19th

Avg - 16.667

So besides the Saints and Colts games (in which the defense gave up 34 and 35 respectively) the defense has gone against offenses ranked 15th or lower every week except for the Titans, and the Titans ranking is a bit deceiving considering we played them pre-Vince Young when their total offense was much lower. There is certainly a case to be made that they have at least taken care of business versus the opponents they were given, but it is tough to say they are as good as those PPG statistics indicate. For what its worth, Football Outsiders and their opponent adjusted stats put the Pats as the 15th best defense.

I also believe another reason is the timing of the defense. It seems like the bigger the moment the worse the defense gets. This has a lasting impact on people as they are far more likely to remember the 4th quarter collapse vs the Colts than to think back to the shut-out against the Titans, even though statistically both count evenly as 1 game. Their inability to get it done when it matters is concerning. Certainly the offense hasn't done their job to close out games on that side of the ball, but the defense hasn't stepped up to the added responsibility and closed out games either. From the Ravens drive that was luckily saved due to a drop by Mason, to the OT drive by the Broncos, to the entire 4th quarter against the Colts, to the entire Saints game, to the game-winning drive by the Fins. Holding the Titans and Bucs to a combined 7 points is great and certainly a nice stat-booster, but what is the point if you can't stop teams when we need a game-winning stop or in high-pressure games (Saints)?

Hopefully this helps you understand where they are coming from.

Every bit of analysis such as this, including similar evaluations of the offense, simply reinforces the fact that this is a 7-5 team that DESERVES to be 7-5. At this point of the season I see it translating to winning the division, a hard-fought close win at home in the first round of the playoffs, and getting soundly beaten on the road in round two.

 

[Kontradiction]

they have given up all most 1000 yerd and 60 points the last two weeks

i can under stand the saints geting all most 400 yerds passing

but the fish where 27th in the NFL in passing befor sundays game and they only had one WR with more the 300 yerds and if they can ligh this them up it's not a good thing

its not the worst D in the NFL but it's not a patriots D it's like seeing the ravens and steelers give up 40 points a game its just dose not happen

I think both sides have a tendency to exaggerate their point, as is the case in much of life it is a polarizing debate. Either its terrible or a top 10 defense, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and they are an average defense, in the 14-16 area.

But because you asked for the reasoning behind those who believe the defense is bad (or not as good as you believe it is), I will present what I believe is their case:

The teams we have played and their Total Offense ranking:

Bills - 29th
Jets - 20th
Falcons - 16th
Ravens - 15th
Broncos - 17th
Titans - 13th
Bucs - 27th
Fins - 19th
Colts - 4th
Jets - 20th
Saints - 1st
Fins - 19th

Avg - 16.667

So besides the Saints and Colts games (in which the defense gave up 34 and 35 respectively) the defense has gone against offenses ranked 15th or lower every week except for the Titans, and the Titans ranking is a bit deceiving considering we played them pre-Vince Young when their total offense was much lower. There is certainly a case to be made that they have at least taken care of business versus the opponents they were given, but it is tough to say they are as good as those PPG statistics indicate. For what its worth, Football Outsiders and their opponent adjusted stats put the Pats as the 15th best defense.

I also believe another reason is the timing of the defense. It seems like the bigger the moment the worse the defense gets. This has a lasting impact on people as they are far more likely to remember the 4th quarter collapse vs the Colts than to think back to the shut-out against the Titans, even though statistically both count evenly as 1 game. Their inability to get it done when it matters is concerning. Certainly the offense hasn't done their job to close out games on that side of the ball, but the defense hasn't stepped up to the added responsibility and closed out games either. From the Ravens drive that was luckily saved due to a drop by Mason, to the OT drive by the Broncos, to the entire 4th quarter against the Colts, to the entire Saints game, to the game-winning drive by the Fins. Holding the Titans and Bucs to a combined 7 points is great and certainly a nice stat-booster, but what is the point if you can't stop teams when we need a game-winning stop or in high-pressure games (Saints)?

Hopefully this helps you understand where they are coming from.

These two. Anybody that tries to convince themselves that this is a top ten defense by throwing out the rankings which the team got by primarily playing lower offensive competition is, simply put, fooling themselves. This defense may be ranked in the top ten, but it is not top ten. It's cool that they can at least hold some of the lower-ranked offenses in the NFL, but that's not who we're going to be facing in the playoffs. I agree with Tunescribe - we'll probably sqeak one out on the Wild Card then get smoked in the divisional round.

 

[BPF]

PPG

1) Bengals - 15.6
2) Colts - 16.8
3) Broncos - 16.8
4) Jets - 17.3
5) Cowboys - 17.8
6) Ravens - 17.9
7) Patriots - 18.7
8) Packers - 19.1
9) Steelers - 19.2
10) Vikings - 19.4

Can someone please try to explain to me why you feel they're "one of the worst in the NFL" or not even solid?

Time of possession on offense has something to do with this stat. I believe the Pats lead the league in that category.

 

[dhamz]

PPGCan someone please try to explain to me why you feel they're "one of the worst in the NFL" or not even solid?

You are paying too much attention to the hyperbole of "one of the worst."

The Pats don't have a good defense. We should know what a good defense looks like after what the Pats had earlier this decade yet we've been having the same discussion on this board for 3 years now. This isn't a good defense.

They aren't good enough to slow down elite offenses (see Indy or No) and have really struggled against mediocre ones at times (see Denver or Miami). They did hold up pretty well against offenses like Tampa, Tenn, or the Jets who are playing QBs who had no business starting NFL games that week.

The defense isn't the only issue on this team but I really find it crazy that a few days after Chad Henne and the Dolphins produce over 400 yds, go 12-22 on 3rd and 4th down, and drive down the field with the game on the line to win it that people would question those who say the defense is an issue on this team. And that is before you factor in that Henne's inaccuracy made the defense look better because he missed numerous wide open guys in the 2nd half.

 

[tombonneau]

The D shouldn't be giving up a ton of points given the Pats offense is one of the leaders in time of possession, which obviously limits the opportunities of the opposing offense.

However, I'd be very interested to see where this D ranks in Yards per Play and RZ Defense. My guess is in the bottom 1/3 of the league and IMO those are much better arbiters of how "good" a defense is than total points.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The defense is not as good as it's been hyped up to be by the #'s, and it's not as bad as it's been labeled to be by the moaners of the forum.

Other than the Saints game, it has been holding it's own and giving our offense the shot to win games. With Brady, Moss, Welker, and company there's no excuse for our offense struggling the way it has. This team should be 10-2 at worst based on the way our defense has played. That doesn't mean I'm saying they're a top defense or ballwashing them, I'm just saying this is a rebuilding defense that needs the true strength of the team to come through for them. And it hasn't been happening.

 

[37Harrison]

These stats are misleading... just watch the games and you can see that this defense is most definately not a top 10 D.

If you want to look at stat's look up what opposing QB's completion percentage is against the Pats.

 

[goldenaleus]

Try this as a better measure of value:

Red zone defense (based on TD percentage)
27th (17 of 28, 60.7 percent)

We can't stop offenses in the Red Zone.

Also, this is another thing which really bothers me:

Red zone offense (based on TD percentage)
24th (24 of 51, 47.1 percent)

We can't score TD in RZ and our ability not to score more in the 2nd half is another problem with the this team.

 

[mgteich]

I officially don't get it.

The offenses we have played averaged a rating of 16.667. Average of the league is 16.50. We have ranked 7th in points allowed against our opponents who averaged being well, average. We played two of the top offenses and some of the poorer offenses. That is what average means.

You seem to want add a TOP adjustment. Well, perhaps that's fair. Moving from 7 to 14-16 seems a bit extreme. 10-12 seems more reasonable.

IN ANY CASE, having the #7 defense or the #10 or even the #14 is NOT terrible.

1) A top 3 offense should be able to win with a defense that is in the 7 to 14 range.
2) This is what we HOPED for from the defense when we started the season without Vrabel, Harrison, Seymour, Bruschi and Hobbs.

I think both sides have a tendency to exaggerate their point, as is the case in much of life it is a polarizing debate. Either its terrible or a top 10 defense, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and they are an average defense, in the 14-16 area.

But because you asked for the reasoning behind those who believe the defense is bad (or not as good as you believe it is), I will present what I believe is their case:

The teams we have played and their Total Offense ranking:

Bills - 29th
Jets - 20th
Falcons - 16th
Ravens - 15th
Broncos - 17th
Titans - 13th
Bucs - 27th
Fins - 19th
Colts - 4th
Jets - 20th
Saints - 1st
Fins - 19th

Avg - 16.667

So besides the Saints and Colts games (in which the defense gave up 34 and 35 respectively) the defense has gone against offenses ranked 15th or lower every week except for the Titans, and the Titans ranking is a bit deceiving considering we played them pre-Vince Young when their total offense was much lower. There is certainly a case to be made that they have at least taken care of business versus the opponents they were given, but it is tough to say they are as good as those PPG statistics indicate. For what its worth, Football Outsiders and their opponent adjusted stats put the Pats as the 15th best defense.

I also believe another reason is the timing of the defense. It seems like the bigger the moment the worse the defense gets. This has a lasting impact on people as they are far more likely to remember the 4th quarter collapse vs the Colts than to think back to the shut-out against the Titans, even though statistically both count evenly as 1 game. Their inability to get it done when it matters is concerning. Certainly the offense hasn't done their job to close out games on that side of the ball, but the defense hasn't stepped up to the added responsibility and closed out games either. From the Ravens drive that was luckily saved due to a drop by Mason, to the OT drive by the Broncos, to the entire 4th quarter against the Colts, to the entire Saints game, to the game-winning drive by the Fins. Holding the Titans and Bucs to a combined 7 points is great and certainly a nice stat-booster, but what is the point if you can't stop teams when we need a game-winning stop or in high-pressure games (Saints)?

Hopefully this helps you understand where they are coming from.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

The offenses we have played averaged a rating of 16.667. Average of the league is 16.50.

That's the #'s I was looking for, those are what matters. If accurate, that should officially kill the 'we're only ranked so high because of a weak schedule' nonsense. We've played both 12-0 teams as well as other decent offenses in between the weak ones. It all evens out when you want to compare us to the rest of the league and the #'s mg posted proves this. That #7 ranking is legit, like it or not.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's the #'s I was looking for, those are what matters. If accurate, that should officially kill the 'we're only ranked so high because of a weak schedule' nonsense. We've played both 12-0 teams as well as other decent offenses in between the weak ones. It all evens out when you want to compare us to the rest of the league and the #'s mg posted proves this. That #7 ranking is legit, like it or not.

The Titans were abysmal at the time the Patriots played them. Now? Not so much now, as you see by the points scored. The Buccaneers had a different starting quarterback in, and he was not better than Freeman. The Dolphins no longer have Ronnie Brown or Chad Pennington. The Patriots defense allowed Mark Sanchez to beat them.

When this is what's happening, the rankings become useless without context.

Let's just look at the Titans for the most obvious example:

10
31
17
17
9
0

That's the scoring for them to start the season, and up to the Patriots game, where they clearly quit on the game very early on.

30
34
41
20
20
17

That's the scoring for them since. So the Titans have gone from scoring an average of 14 ppg up to the Patriots game to an average of 33.7 ppg since.

To say the Patriots have given up the 7th fewest points is accurate. To say the Patriots have the #7 defense in the NFL is not. It's a below average defense.