Desperate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

[shatch62]

Not a news flash here but the Pats need someone to step up and take some pressure off Welker and Moss. Looking over the numbers it is really disturbing how top heavy the team is.

Pats have attempted 473 passes and here is a partial breakdown of who the targets have been:

Player Targets % of attempts Rec
Welker 122 25.8% 95
Moss 166 24.5% 68
Faulk 48 10.1% 33
Edelman 36 7.6% 26
Aiken 33 7.0% 17
Watson 31 6.5% 22

While we all agree that Moss and Welker are the BEST options they need to get a legit 3rd option. It has become too easy to stop the Pats. If you take into account that Welker missed two games his targets is really nuts.

Lets look at the Colts for comparison as they are similar to the Pats (Great QB, weak running game and so so D). They have attepted 462 passes and here is there breakdown:

Player Targets % of attempts Rec
Wayne 121 26.2% 83
Clark 97 21.0% 77
Garcon 80 17.3% 43
Collie 69 14.9% 47
Addai 52 11.3% 43

Clark and Wayne are Mannings Welker and Moss but they still attempt to get the ball to Garcon and Collie. Are Collie and Garcon great? Nope but they are still involved. The Pats NEED to find a way to get Watson and Aiken involved more. Until this happens the O will struggle and the Pats will be what they appear to be now. Slightly above average.

 

[JSn]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

The way Aiken is stepping up, he's going to get more and more chances. Brady is trusting and he's putting up fights for the ball most of the time.

If ANYTHING good came from the fish-bowl, it's that defenses will have to give Aiken some thought now.

 

[jmt57]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

While I don't disagree that the Pats need a legitimate third option to keep opposing defenses honest, the stats are a bit skewed because there have been multiple third options over the course of the year (Edelman, Galloway, Aiken, etc.) The Pats top two are targeted 50.3% of the time, while the Colts' top two are targeted on 47.2% of Manning's passes; that's really not very much of a difference.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

The way Aiken is stepping up, he's going to get more and more chances. Brady is trusting and he's putting up fights for the ball most of the time.

If ANYTHING good came from the fish-bowl, it's that defenses will have to give Aiken some thought now.

Some, but not much. Aiken's touchdown reception on Sunday was the product of a combination of sheer luck and one on one coverage. Teams will give him some thought (like, "keep an eye out for this guy because Brady can throw it to him"), but he won't be drawing any double coverage nor will he force teams to take double coverage off of Welker and Moss. Defenses, by and large, will know that Sam Aiken is not going to beat them deep. He's a reliable option, but he's not the third receiver that's truly going to make a team pay for devoting so much attention to Welker and Moss. I really, really wish we would have given Galloway another chance.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

The way Aiken is stepping up, he's going to get more and more chances. Brady is trusting and he's putting up fights for the ball most of the time.

If ANYTHING good came from the fish-bowl, it's that defenses will have to give Aiken some thought now.

I agree. Loving what I'm seeing from Aiken- he's turning into a legit WR. Traditional #2 type.

 

[JSn]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Things:

Luck is a byproduct of hard work. His presence of mind on some of these plays is outstanding.

I agree he hasn't made them pay yet, but as we've seen, if Brady starts targeting him more and more, it could pay huge dividends. I could deal with him being good for one TD a game.

He could probably stay in and block and let Watson release, and Ben is a legit "down the seam" deep threat. He just likes catching crazy difficult passes the best, lol.

So if we manage to stay in it, my prediction is we're calling Sam legit if not important by January.

Some, but not much. Aiken's touchdown reception on Sunday was the product of a combination of sheer luck and one on one coverage. Teams will give him some thought (like, "keep an eye out for this guy because Brady can throw it to him"), but he won't be drawing any double coverage nor will he force teams to take double coverage off of Welker and Moss. Defenses, by and large, will know that Sam Aiken is not going to beat them deep. He's a reliable option, but he's not the third receiver that's truly going to make a team pay for devoting so much attention to Welker and Moss. I really, really wish we would have given Galloway another chance.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Edelman would be key but he can't stay healthy

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

I agree. Loving what I'm seeing from Aiken- he's turning into a legit WR. Traditional #2 type.

Stop. Aiken is a nice #4. He is not a #2.

 

[DarrylS]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Do not know why we do not use Watson or Baker more???.. They are not Tony Gonzalez, but are pretty good...

Take the pressure off of Welker he is taking a beating..

 

[DougFlutie]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

If by 3rd option you mean involve the tight ends and running backs more, I am all for it.

If by 3rd option you mean try to force the spread offense when our personnel is better in a 2-TE formation, then I disagree.

All those stats show is just how ridiculously over-used Welker is on this team, and the opposition knows it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Do not know why we do not use Watson or Baker more???.. They are not Tony Gonzalez, but are pretty good...

Take the pressure off of Welker he is taking a beating..

Two things- A. Watson is not very good at creating seperation and is a marginal route-runner. Hes here b/c hes the fastest TE in the league and plays hard.

Don't know about Baker. He wasn't a killer threat w/ the NYJ. More of the blocker.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Stop. Aiken is a nice #4. He is not a #2.

He's definitely not there yet, but he has the tools and the mentality. he just needs a ton more practice.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

He's definitely not there yet, but he has the tools and the mentality. he just needs a ton more practice.

Decent speed. Good hands. Very good strength. Need to work on route-running and getting more seperation in his cuts & reading defenses. Typical for a young player...

I do like his potential and am very glad he is on this team.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Things:

Luck is a byproduct of hard work. His presence of mind on some of these plays is outstanding.

I agree he hasn't made them pay yet, but as we've seen, if Brady starts targeting him more and more, it could pay huge dividends. I could deal with him being good for one TD a game.

He could probably stay in and block and let Watson release, and Ben is a legit "down the seam" deep threat. He just likes catching crazy difficult passes the best, lol.

So if we manage to stay in it, my prediction is we're calling Sam legit if not important by January.

He's a helluva blocker. I've mentioned that before. However, that catch was not a byproduct of hard work. It was a byproduct of Davis actually beating him on the route and the pass being terrible. If Davis was behind him on the route, Brady throws three interceptions instead of two. That said, Aiken is a big bodied WR and could be good as a fourth option. I just don't think he's a good third option and he hasn't proven as much to me when teams have doubled both Moss and Welker. Hopefully that changes.

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Stop. Aiken is a nice #4. He is not a #2.

What is your argument for that?

 

[DougFlutie]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Two things- A. Watson is not very good at creating seperation and is a marginal route-runner. Hes here b/c hes the fastest TE in the league and plays hard.

Don't know about Baker. He wasn't a killer threat w/ the NYJ. More of the blocker.

Daniel Graham wasn't good at creating his own open-ness either, he caught balls based on well designed plays for him.

This offense doesn't even throw to the tight ends. They rank 30th in the league in tight end catches, because they don't even give them a chance.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Stop. Aiken is a nice #4. He is not a #2.

He's definitely not there yet, but he has the tools and the mentality. he just needs a ton more practice.

I think even WR4 is a stretch for Aiken. He seems like a 5th wideout to me. What's more, the guy is already 29 years old (well, as of the 14th he will be), so there's only going to be so much more room until he hits the ceiling, in all likelihood.

 

[Patspsycho]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Some, but not much. Aiken's touchdown reception on Sunday was the product of a combination of sheer luck and one on one coverage. Teams will give him some thought (like, "keep an eye out for this guy because Brady can throw it to him"), but he won't be drawing any double coverage nor will he force teams to take double coverage off of Welker and Moss. Defenses, by and large, will know that Sam Aiken is not going to beat them deep. He's a reliable option, but he's not the third receiver that's truly going to make a team pay for devoting so much attention to Welker and Moss. I really, really wish we would have given Galloway another chance.

Not sure where you are coming from, Aiken had great separation on the Brady overthrow that he made a tremendous attempt to catch.

Galloway is a one trick pony. He knows vertical speed and that's it. Never mind trying to teach a multiple option offense based on coverage.

 

[shatch62]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

While I don't disagree that the Pats need a legitimate third option to keep opposing defenses honest, the stats are a bit skewed because there have been multiple third options over the course of the year (Edelman, Galloway, Aiken, etc.) The Pats top two are targeted 50.3% of the time, while the Colts' top two are targeted on 47.2% of Manning's passes; that's really not very much of a difference.

I agree that Wayne and Clark are similar to Moss and Welker in looks but what I am saying is that there is no one getting looks as the 3rd (or 4th) option enough. Forcing the ball to Welker and Moss is not working. Fake a screen to Welker and run Aiken deep. The D is going to bit on the screeen becuase we run it so much. Find a way to get Watson involved. Brady didn't target him once this week end. I know he is not Dallas Clark but not once?

 

[DarrylS]

Re: Deserate need for a legit 3rd option - stats prove it

Two things- A. Watson is not very good at creating seperation and is a marginal route-runner. Hes here b/c hes the fastest TE in the league and plays hard.

Don't know about Baker. He wasn't a killer threat w/ the NYJ. More of the blocker.

Still think they can be more involved than they are, this is anecdotal and does not mean all that much... have seen plays designed for Watson at the beginning of the year that looked successful, no reason why they can't mix up the play calling more..