Week 13: New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins 12/06/09 - RECAP

[Kontradiction]

I posted this to my blog [/shameless plug] but thought that it would get discussed more here. These are all the things, in my opinion, that are bringing this team down and will doom it in the playoffs. Anyway, here it is...

Just a word of warning, I'm still fuming about this thing a little bit. This won't be a breakdown so much as it will be an assessment of where things went wrong for us today as well as where they have went wrong for us the entire year. I'll pretty much go about pointing out all that is wrong with this team...

1. Pass rush: I think I'm pretty much stating the obvious when I call out the pass rush for being so awful. Last season, the Pats gave up 27 touchdowns through the air (second only to the Arizona Cardinals who gave up 36) to their opponents. The bottom line is that this defense was not doing particularly well rushing the passer last year. The only real consistent pass rusher we had came off of the end of the defensive line in the form Richard Seymour who had finished the season with 8 sacks. The Patriots went on to finish tied at 14th in sacks (also with the Cardinals) on the year. How did we address that issue this past offseason? By letting our leading sack artist go to Oakland and addressing the issue for pennies on the dollar in the form of Tully Banta-Cain. Now, don't get me wrong, Banta-Caint has been good at times for us in the pass rush. But he isn't a game changer that the offensive line has to specifically prepare for. As a matter of fact, I don't think we have any such playmaker in our linebacking corps (Mayo included). Two years ago, the Pats went out and landed what was supposed to be a major free agent acquisition in Adalius Thomas. Thomas was supposed to be that playmaker. The guy that came in and immediately grabbed the attention of the offensive line. The guy who made the opposing quarterback's life a living hell. The LINEBACKER that could line up against a team's slot receiver, if needed, and cover him well. To date, Thomas has only showed up big time in a handful of games. This season, Thomas has 28 tackles and 3.0 sacks. To put that in perspective, Elvis Dumervil of the Broncos has accumulated 15 sacks. I haven't checked on this lately, but I'd be willing to bet that Dumervil makes less than Thomas does at this point.

Our pass rush has been an absolute killer this season. Quarterbacks have routinely had all day to sit back and pick and choose the receivers they want to throw to because it's pretty much assured that our defensive line, minus Seymour, is not going to get any push toward the quarterback. Many have called for Pees to blitz and then get angry when he doesn't. I'm not really sure what these people are watching. The fact of the matter is that even when Pees DOES call a blitz, it very rarely even gets close enough to breathe on the opposing quarterback. Last Monday night, Drew Brees was sacked only once and went on to feast on a secondary that was left as a sitting duck out there against the best offense in the league. Today, the results were mostly the same. Very rarely was Chad Henne put in a position where he had to hurry a throw (sacked once) and he went on to have a career day. He finished the game 29/52 for for 335 yards with 2 TDs and 1 pick. The pick came on a bad throw, but not one that we forced. With that stat line, one would think that we played the 1998 Minnesota Vikings. But we didn't. We played the 2009 Miami Dolphins. The team with one of, if not THE, worst receiving corps in the league. If we keep playing like this, we're going to be one and done in the playoffs. Guys like Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning (again), and hell we'll throw in Kyle Orton again (being that he already had a career day against this defense earlier in the year) will absolutely FEAST on this defense in a big game situation.

2. Lack of a third wide receiving threat: This is the second biggest weakness on the Patriots. Last week, I said that we got exposed during the Saints game. Not because they played tight coverage and harassed Brady all night long with just four guys. No. That's happened many times throughout Brady's career. It was the fact that the Saints had absolutely no respect whatsoever for our other options on offense. They kept both safeties over the top and double covered Welker and Moss all day while daring Aiken, Maroney, Faulk, Watson, and Baker to beat them. This was on top of being able to cut through an injured offensive line and harass Brady up the middle. The result? Our offense had very little production and we got blown out. When this game started, I asked aloud why the Dolphins didn't copycat the Saints blueprint? They were doubling Moss, but left Welker to one on one coverage most of the time. Then, at the end of the third quarter and into the fourth, they finally woke up. Welker and Moss both drew double coverage and our offense was once again shut down.

One of the biggest reasons for our success on offense in the 2007 season was not only the emergence of Moss and Welker in this offense, but it was also our ability to make teams pay with our third (Stallworth), fourth (Gaffney), and fifth (Watson before injury) options in the passing game. This season, we still have Watson but he is pulling blocking duty because of the injuries/woes on the offensive line the majority of the time. Stallworth, that guy on the other side of Moss who could stretch the field and make defenses pay dearly for rolling too much coverage over to Moss and Welker was let go after the 2007 season and allowed to depart to Cleveland. This was never really mentioned, but I believe it was a huge loss for us. Still, Gaffney came in during the final stretch in 2007 and stayed through 2008 and had a solid season. He didn't set the world on fire, but he was reliable. This offseason, he was let go and Joey Galloway was brought in. Galloway, even at 38, was a speedster capable of making the defense pay if they doubled up on Moss and Welker. The early games saw some growing pains between him and Brady. He had trouble learning the offense and had trouble building chemistry with Brady (my theory was that he wasn't used to the way Brady threw the ball). The Jets game saw Galloway get behind the man for, what would have been, a game winning touchdown catch but was overthrown by Brady. After that game, the coaching staff had apparently seen enough. I really wish they hadn't. We're really hurting for a receiver with his skillset right now. There should have been ways that they could make the offense work with him in it. Other posters have brought up ways that the coaching staff could have made the routes that he ran a little bit easier to understand and, thus, lessen the learning curve for an old dog who was having trouble picking up new tricks.

Fact is that Sam Aiken is a fourth or fifth WR in reality. Sure, he had a good catch today and in the Bucs game. He had a good stat line in the Saints game and has been good at blocking in screens. But, he has not been making defenses pay in any way whatsoever when they take away Moss and Welker. It's very possible that Edelman could come in and be inserted into Aiken's role, but I don't really think that he would fit. Edelman has a similar build to Wes Welker and would be best served in the other slot opposite Welker. On top of this, Ben Watson has not been able to run that many routes do his duty helping out with the blocking. This is another weapon we are missing. Watson is capable of stretching defenses, but has been relegated to keep defenders off Brady because of the injuries to the offensive line which have caused deficiencies in the blocking. The acquisition of a third vertical threat at the wide receiver position should be one of the many priorities in the offseason, either by draft or by free agency.

 

[Kontradiction]

Last post was actually too long by 1,000 characters so let me finish it up here...

3. Blocking/Offensive line injuries/depth: I think it's pretty safe to say that Stephen Neal is one of, if not our most indespensible offensive linemen. Everytime he is injured, teams are routinely able to generate pressure on Brady up the middle which forces Brady to either hurry throws or to not fully step into them. Dan Koppen and Nick Kaczur both see improvement in their games when Neal is in there and this is because Neal is frequently able to chip both of their guys while also taking on his own (if facing a team lining up in the 4-3). Today, we again saw what happens when Connolly is inserted into that spot. I usually harp on Kaczur for this, but he wasn't the problem against the Dolphins. Early on, Connolly got abused by his man and, on the touchdown pass to Moss, saw his man absolutely destroy Brady on a sandwich hit. Brady jogged back to the locker room, clearly favoring his ribs, and then eventually came back out.

Later in the half, Miami inserted Randy Starks into the line-up at the nose tackle position and Starks basically owned Koppen in the second half. He was frequently in the Pats backfield and made Brady's life miserable in the second half. The left side of the offensive line was generally solid. Earlier in the season we lost Matt Light but our interior protection stayed solid and it was never really a threat to Brady (though we did have to give Vollmer help at times in the blocking game). Today, with full health on the left side, Brady's blind side was never really an issue. However, with Neal out on the right side Connolly, Koppen, and Kaczur have been frequently bombarded and defenses have seen success. I sincerely hope we get Neal back in full health for the postseason because we're going to need him. Like any other pocket passer, Brady's kryptonite is a pass rush up the gut. With Neal in, that won't happen so much. That said, offensive line should be yet another priority in the offseason.

I would mention the predictable and ultra-conservative play calling on offense. To be honest, though, it wasn't as big of an issue today as it has been the past few weeks. Sure, there was a 3rd and 11 where we handed the ball off and then had to put afterward. There were a few other plays which made my head scratch, like sending Welker deep when we only needed six yards (though Welker did beat his man, however that should have never been called due to Brady having trouble hitting the deep man after the first quarter). But there are not as many that stand out to me as have in the recent weeks. O'Brien is definitely going through growing pains, though.

And one more thing: Bill... STOP GOING FOR IT ON FOURTH DOWN! TAKE THE POINTS! Jesus. It failed in the Colts game, it failed in the Saints game, and it now failed in the Dolphins game. Guess what? The three points that we could have gotten on that field goal would have forced the Dolphins to go for a touchdown at the end of the game instead of settle for a field goal. Would we have stopped them? Probably not. But they would have had to hurry their plays even more and couldn't have simply stopped their drive at the 30. Please, please, please just take the points from now on because the 4th down failures have been far more than the 4th down successes this season.

And that's it for my rant. Sorry if I offend anybody's sensibilities about this team

 

[Patspsycho]

I disagree with the assessment on Aiken as the "4th WR." His stats speak for themselves 96 yards last week and 81 today, and would have been more if Brady hadn't overthrown him on that spectacular attempt he made trying to catch it. I think he is coming along well for a developing WR. I think of him as a TE disguised as a WR, with the physical gifts he has.

 

[Kontradiction]

I disagree with the assessment on Aiken as the "4th WR." His stats speak for themselves 96 yards last week and 81 today, and would have been more if Brady hadn't overthrown him on that spectacular attempt he made trying to catch it. I think he is coming along well for a developing WR. I think of him as a TE disguised as a WR, with the physical gifts he has.

We'll have to disagree on that then. I saw Aiken get absolutely lucky that he was in the position to catch that Favre-esque pass (Davis was actually ahead of him in the route) by using his size. Personally, I would much rather have a guy with speed on the opposite side of Moss, hence me showing love for Stallworth. With Aiken's build, he's more capable of working the middle of the field. You're right though. He did get separation on that pass that Brady missed. However, he's not able to do that nearly as much as we need him to. And I mentioned is stats last week. The statline was good, but that was about it. He never really made the Saints pay for doubling Welker and Moss the way Stallworth did when the Cowboys tried to do the same thing two years ago.

 

[363839]

Great post, Kontra!
Not a thing there I could disagree with.
And ditto on going for it on fourth down.
This one could very well have cost us the game.

 

[JFK]

AiKEN can be a #3...He is underrated here. The more he is thrown to, the better he will become.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Well let's look on the bright side. At least we don't have to sit on our hands waiting for SD/Cincy to lose a couple games or resort to rooting for the Dallas Cowboys in December again. The bye is no longer realistic so just beat 2 pretty bad teams and clinch this division. Make our own bye in week 17 since we'll be getting the 3 or 4 seed regardless in case we have lingering injuries. I think healthwise we are doing great this year that is another plus.

 

[Kontradiction]

Well let's look on the bright side. At least we don't have to sit on our hands waiting for SD/Cincy to lose a couple games or resort to rooting for the Dallas Cowboys in December again. The bye is no longer realistic so just beat 2 pretty bad teams and clinch this division. Make our own bye in week 17 since we'll be getting the 3 or 4 seed regardless in case we have lingering injuries. I think healthwise we are doing great this year that is another plus.

I think we'll see drastic improvements in the second half of games once this offensive line is able to play as a cohesive unit for a game. Brady will be able to stand upright and we should, once again, be able to send Watson out on routes like we were doing at other points earlier this year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I think we'll see drastic improvements in the second half of games once this offensive line is able to play as a cohesive unit for a game. Brady will be able to stand upright and we should, once again, be able to send Watson out on routes like we were doing at other points earlier this year.

Yeah we need Neal and Vollmer healthy for January. If we can survive the next 2 games without them I'd say F it let them sit out till round 1. The right side just collapsed on a 3 man rush leading to the last pick, that **** is just inexcusable. Really would like to see Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal-Vollmer as our playoff OL.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yeah we need Neal and Vollmer healthy for January. If we can survive the next 2 games without them I'd say F it let them sit out till round 1. The right side just collapsed on a 3 man rush leading to the last pick, that **** is just inexcusable. Really would like to see Light-Mankins-Koppen-Neal-Vollmer as our playoff OL.

I've made it pretty clear that I wouldn't mind seeing Vollmer in there as RT. But I really don't think Kaczur is that bad with Neal in there... especially against 3-4 teams. There is a reason Neal defeated Brock Lesnar in a wrestling match: he is a beast. When he's in, watch him. You'll see him take on his man and regularly chip either Kaczur's man, or Koppen's. The whole right side stands to improve with him back.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Yeah Neal's importance I think was highlighted last year when Cassel was sacked 50 times a game until Neal came back and our OL did a 180 for the rest of the season. I share your sentiments on Kaczur. I personally think Vollmer was playing too well before his injury to be on the bench but if Neal is healthy I'm fine either way.

At this point, just get healthy on both lines and let's get Taylor back too. I don't care if we go 9-7 as long as Buffalo is one of the wins.

 

[SVN]

My take on the game and team overall -

i dont think aiken is a #3 reciever . He is a hard worker but not a threat to take a over a game. i would like moss to hustle for the ball like he did though.
Overall our team lacks confidence because they havent won many close games or special games . Either they have lost because of mistakes down the stretch blowing up leads or won games going away mostly other than the bills game and maybe the ravens game.
Our offense is fine for the first Q but disintegrates by the end ofthe game .I think its because obrien and BB and co script the first set of drives but he cant make adjustments on the fly to call the game creatively. Maybe he will improve ..
Overall the team's playcalling,coaching execution all are lacking confidence. You can see that in the # of times we have to call timeouts before crucial 3rd downs.Brady and co can keep saying they need to be consistent but do they themselves consistently run plays which are actually working ?
For e.g for some inexplicable reason maroney always sits out in the 4Q. They throw long passes on 3rd and 2 etc. Its another story that aiken should catch and all but see above for that.Even doug gabriel caught TD's from brady so it doesnt say much about the receiver.
Defensively, again the same stuff which kontra has said .Not much left. I dont know how much pees can do. If you think randall gay and troy brown playing cornerback on this team would improve our secondary then think again. We won/Crennel won those games because of good front 7 . They didnt need their secondary to play like champ bailey and ed reed every snap .I dont think crennel vs pees is going to make any difference.
BB whiffed on the FA acquisitions in a couple of key spots. OLB with burgess.Maybe he thought tyron mckezie is the answer but will never know. People thought crable and woods are answers but they just players occupying roster spots like Marquise Hill (RIP) did. That leaves wilfork and warren to share the load. 3WR with galloway.
ST is another area we have struggled.We must in the bottom 5 in kickoff returns.

Overall. the team and coaches have struggled to establish what their identity is and their lack of clarity and confidence shows.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

One thing Belichick has always preached over the years is great situational football. We are severely lacking in this department this year. I think the tipping point was the Colts 4th and 2 play. I think BB feels he has to "prove" to others that he's willing to go for it on 4th downs at any time.

Belichick has always been a master at managing the clock, not wasting timeouts, and calmly thinking through and making the right decisions. This year, the coaching staff as a whole, has not been as sharp. I don't know if it has to do with McDaniels leaving on offense or Brady missing a full year, but we're struggling. For example, we've had a number of delay of game penatlies and had to burn a number of T.O.'s b/c the playclock is almost at 0. Brady is taking way too long at the LOS making all his checks and/or calling audibles.

Another example of poor situational football was burning a T.O. before first down when we got the ball back up by 6 vs Indy. We have that T.O., we can challenge the Faulk catch, and maybe that game ends up differently. We've also had some dumb challenges this year that have cost us T.O.'s, which is very un-Belichick-like.

In the 2nd half, I'd rather take the 5 yard delay of game on 1st and 10 than burn a T.O. Those timeouts are invaluable.

What was once a strength for this team now seems to have become a soft spot. Going for it on 4th and 1 at the 6 instead of taking the 3? C'mon Bill, when you're the better team you take the points and just keep building the lead. When you're the inferior team or the underdog or are playing a high powered offense, then you take chances like that and play for the TD. But Miami is not that type of team. How about after the 2 minute warning when Miami ran on first down and the Pats stopped them for a 2 yard gain. Call the timeout! If you stop them on 1st and 2nd down and call the two timeouts there to stop the clock both times and it is 3rd and long, Miami might have to put the ball in the air which would stop the clock if it was incomplete. Instead, we let 40 seconds run off the clock and then used the timeouts on 2nd and 3rd down. Then we get the ball back and on the first play we take a little dump off throw for 12 yards or so and get out of bounds. There was plenty of time left, yet on the next play we try to go deep and throw into coverage where Aiken really didnt have a good chance at making a catch. All we needed was a FG. Take the 10-15 yard passes Miami was giving you and get out of bounds.

I don't know I might sound overly critically but I can't remember myself 2nd guessing the Pats so often. In the past, it seemed like Belichick always made the right call. This year we just seem to be doing things a Belichick-coached team wouldn't normally do.

 

[DocE]

I really enjoyed your post Kontradiction, probably the best post game post I have read so far. I've been talking about the 3rd receiver role for a long time, and it became very apparent that something needed to be done in the home game against the Jets last season. In that game, the Jets basically left Gaffney in single coverage and said "beat us with him" and the Patriots couldn't do it. This year they've actually downgraded from Gaffney after downgrading (as far as big play ability/defensive attention) from Stallworth after '07. If the Patriots want to spread it out and play with 3 WR's on the field, then they need 3 dangerous, starter quality receivers on the roster. I would argue you need a 4th to guard against injury as well. The one thing Gaffney did bring to the table was the ability to play all 3 WR positions and a rapport with Tom Brady. He wouldn't be the ideal solution to the 3rd WR issue, but he'd be much better than we have now. Aiken deserves credit for making some nice plays, but he's also the same guys who's known for ST abilities and never was a factor at WR for Buffalo. If the Patriots were to transition to a 2 WR offense, that would significantly limit Welker's effectiveness, and they don't want to do that. Welker running outside the numbers routes would not be nearly the same player.

The Pass Rush is the biggest issue with this team, and I can't help but think BB was told by Jason Taylor that he was coming to New England. If not, many of the Patriots offseason moves made little sense with such a glaring need to find more pass rushers. A training camp move for Derrick Burgess, in hindsight, looks like overpayment to try to fix a glaring need on the roster.

As for the Oline, I think their run blocking deserves more scrutiny than it has gotten. How many 3rd and 4th and shorts have we failed to convert this year? How many times have we just given up on giving them yet another chance to fail and went to the shotgun on 3rd or 4th and short? Aside from the short yardage issue, the Patriots never see 8 in the box and they should be able to run successfully, yet they obviously can't do it consistantly. A better run game would do wonders for the downfield passing game.

 

[JoeShmoe]

I was counting some of the time Henne had to throw and it was often up to 8 seconds - heck I could throw for 300 yards with that much time and there isnt a D back in the world who can single cover for that long

The 3rd we got for Burgess is a woeful, dreadful piece of business. Old Al got one back on us there

Ditto Kazcur and Koppen. To me Koppen is too small physcially. He used to make up for it with his technique but with age thats leaving him. We need a new bigger C, someone to replace Neal at OG and give Light or Vollmer a try at RT

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Well let's look on the bright side. At least we don't have to sit on our hands waiting for SD/Cincy to lose a couple games or resort to rooting for the Dallas Cowboys in December again. The bye is no longer realistic so just beat 2 pretty bad teams and clinch this division. Make our own bye in week 17 since we'll be getting the 3 or 4 seed regardless in case we have lingering injuries. I think healthwise we are doing great this year that is another plus.

That isn't true, unfortunately. The only 100% certain scenario to win the division is to win all FOUR games. Only a loss to Carolina allows us the possibility of winning the division without hoping for help. However, the second scenario relies on NE winning the strength of schedule tie break with Miami (???). Any remaining scenario to win the division relies on help from Miami's opponents. The good news is Miami has a tougher remaining schedule: Pitt, Tenn (playing much better), Jax, Houston. None of them dominant but all of them solidly tough games. Hate to say it but if Miami wins all 4 of those games they just might deserve it more than the Patriots (especially if the Patriots keep playing like this). Further, the equalizer to the schedule advantage might be opponents see the Patriots as a statement game (we get their above and beyond effort).

I did not include the Jets because they basically have a no win tie break scenario. They need to win out and hope both Miami and NE lose at least 2 games. Also, I didn't include the wild card possibility. It is still a bit murky to rely on a WC though a win over Jax will help our WC chances a lot. Also a Green Bay win over Balt on Monday night helps the Patriot WC scenario a lot.

 

[satz]

OL
Another person who thinks NEAL is important...great . I always believed even with all this light vs vollmer thread that neal is the key .You can step up incase of edge break down if your interior line is playing well

You forgot to add koppen is playing with an injured knee and he needs help by gaurd sometimes. NEAL did that too .

Offence
Aiken - Remember we used galloway ,lewis in the offence in training camp and passing camp and the first 4-5 weeks of the season. I cannot blame him that in week 10-11 we are giving him snaps and expect him to play like he was the 3rd WR from camp. I will reserve judgement by week 15-16 similar to how gaffney came in at week 7 and started showing up by week 14-15 in 07.

Taking a field goal is not a insult. If we had a game similar to the colts against baltimore the last 2 yr , i do not trust BB to kick 5 field goals and win 18-15 anymore. we will loss 7-15 as we went for it .

Defence
Put tully/Woods on the TY side and more AD/Novkinwich to the Left side and play Pyor/Brace[time for him to eat some space ] more. we need to stop the run
first and foremost . Shortyard and not let any RB get 4-5 yds on 1st down.

aslo ending burgess experiment .

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

That isn't true, unfortunately. The only 100% certain scenario to win the division is to win all FOUR games. Only a loss to Carolina allows us the possibility of winning the division without hoping for help. However, the second scenario relies on NE winning the strength of schedule tie break with Miami (???). Any remaining scenario to win the division relies on help from Miami's opponents. The good news is Miami has a tougher remaining schedule: Pitt, Tenn (playing much better), Jax, Houston. None of them dominant but all of them solidly tough games. Hate to say it but if Miami wins all 4 of those games they just might deserve it more than the Patriots (especially if the Patriots keep playing like this). Further, the equalizer to the schedule advantage might be opponents see the Patriots as a statement game (we get their above and beyond effort).

I did not include the Jets because they basically have a no win tie break scenario. They need to win out and hope both Miami and NE lose at least 2 games. Also, I didn't include the wild card possibility. It is still a bit murky to rely on a WC though a win over Jax will help our WC chances a lot. Also a Green Bay win over Balt on Monday night helps the Patriot WC scenario a lot.

You're right, when I posted that I for some reason thought we had the edge in divisional record over Miami but even if we beat Buffalo we'll just be tied with them. Still, I don't see Miami winning out. The next 3 games are very winnable though so I hope week 17 ends up irrelevant.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

i agree with your first point. its pretty obvious.