Playoff seedings

[Patspsycho]

First seed goes to Colts (assuming they don't have a meltdown). Next three are a toss up at this point, between the Chargers, Bengals, and Patriots.

My thoughts are:

Chargers and Bengals will play each other in the next to last game. I am rooting for Bengals to win because they play at Minnesota and that is going to be a difficult game for them to win.

However this makes it all the more important that we win at Miami because if Chargers do win the game vs. Bengals and somehow tie with us in overall and conference record, we win by virtue of common opponents (tiebreaker) if we win in Miami.

So to me, this is the most important road win of this season, bar none.

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect SD will win that one. They have two decent shots to lose with Dallas and @ Tennessee, they should win them both but they're very losable games. Either way we'd be ahead of them, if we win out, as a loss to Tennessee would give them one more conference loss than us and a loss to Dallas would put us in the Common Opponents scenario you referred to.

 

[gmtaxi27]

I think we will end up with 4 seed.

While I would love the Pats to run the table, I don't think it will happen. They will probably drop game either at Miami, Houston, or even Buffalo who seems to be playing better.

 

[Jimke]

I think we will end up with 4 seed.

While I would love the Pats to run the table, I don't think it will happen. They will probably drop game either at Miami, Houston, or even Buffalo who seems to be playing better.

I agree with you. The Patriots will lose at least one road game.

 

[Patspsycho]

I agree with you. The Patriots will lose at least one road game.

What is your argument for this? Or is that just an assumption?

 

[gmtaxi27]

What is your argument for this? Or is that just an assumption?

Isn't the fact we haven't won a road game yet a good enough argument.

I would also add, that Miami is dangerous and usually give the Pats fits in Miami. The Bills seem to be playing better, and don't forget they pretty much outplayed us in the home opener, and Houston is a good team that is just badly coached. They can play with anybody.

 

[The Intimidator]

Looking at the schedules, I can see this happening. Here are the two team's remaining schedules.

Chargers:
Week 13 Sun. Dec. 6 @ Browns*
Week 14 Sun. Dec. 13@ Cowboys*
Week 15 Sun. Dec. 20 Bengals
Week 16 Fri. Dec. 25 @ Titans
Week 17 Sun. Jan. 3 Redskins*

Besides the Browns, this is going to be a very tough schedule. The Titans are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now and the Redskins have been playing better as of late. Though, I expect the Redskins to have the RVS running in the back by that time. Cowboys and Bengal games will be very tough for them. I can see at least one loss on here.


Bengals:
Sun., Dec. 6 DETROIT 1 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 13 at Minnesota 1 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 20 at San Diego 4:05 p.m.*
Sun., Dec. 27 KANSAS CITY 1 p.m.*
Sun., Jan. 3 at N.Y. Jets 1 p.m.*

I have a strong feeling they will lose at Minnesota and have a very tough game on the road at San Diego, which will help us either way for the Bye.

With these schedules, and with the Patriots schedule, I could see us getting the bye, but I dont think it is a given that we win out. We have a tough game the last game vs the Texas and a tough game down in Miami where we never seem to play with. However, looking at the schedules if we win out, it is pretty safe to say that we will get the #2 seed.

The Chargers are 6-3 in the AFC
2-2 vs common opponents with a game vs the Titans.
The Bengals are 7-3 in the AFC
1-2 vs common opponents with the Patriots still having to play the Texans.

The Patriots are 7-3 in the AFC

Looking at this, we have the tie breaker vs the Bengals currently if it is a tie at the end of the year. We are tied currently with the Chargers in tie breakers, with a huge game vs the Titans to decide common opponents.

How I look at it, we win out, we get the #2 seed looking at this. I don't see either of these teams winning out.

 

[Rob0729]

I think we will end up with 4 seed.

While I would love the Pats to run the table, I don't think it will happen. They will probably drop game either at Miami, Houston, or even Buffalo who seems to be playing better.

I'm not sold on that. The road woes of the Pats have been overstated. They lost on the road to two teams that are a combined 22-0. Denver was 5-0 when the Pats faced them. Brady still was rusty against the Jets and the Jets shot their load in that game treating it like the Super Bowl. People want to dismiss the Tampa road game like it never happened because it was in London.

I think all three remaining road games are easily easier opponents than Indy or New Orleans and even the Broncos.

I think the Pats have a decent shot at the #2 seed. Both San Deigo and Cincy have injury concerns and face a tougher schedule.

 

[Patspsycho]

Isn't the fact we haven't won a road game yet a good enough argument.

I would also add, that Miami is dangerous and usually give the Pats fits in Miami. The Bills seem to be playing better, and don't forget they pretty much outplayed us in the home opener, and Houston is a good team that is just badly coached. They can play with anybody.

I do agree that the Bills are playing much better. They are very dangerous right now because Jauron's conservativeness has been eliminated and they are just opening up the playbook and throwing caution to the wind.

Miami is dangerous but I do not see why we should not win if we shut down Ricky (now that Brown is out) and contain White.

In regard to our "road woes", our first loss can be solely pinned on Brady having his worst game of the year which was justified because he faced heavy blitz on a gimpy knee. Our 2nd loss was to the then-surging 5-0 Broncos, then to the 9-0 Colts, and then to the 10-0 Saints.

 

[mayoclinic]

I posted this on another thread, but many seem to have missed it:

NFL playoff projections, scenarios for Week 13 - Dom Bonvissuto - SI.com

FWIW, it predicts the Pats will win out going 12-4, and get the #2 seed over San Diego based on a tie-breaker.

Assuming we win out and at least one of Cincy and SD finish 12-4, the first tie-breaker is head-to-head. We don't meet either SD or Cincy head to head in the regular season. The next tie-breaker is record within the conference. If we win out we will have 3 conference losses. The loser of Cincy/SD will have 4. If the winner loses another conference game, we have the edge. If SD beats Cincinnati, they would have to lose to either Cleveland (unlikely) or Tennessee (possible) to get a 4th conference loss. If Cincy beats SD they would have to lose to either Detroit or Kansas City (unlikely) or the Jets (possible). Otherwise it goes to more arcane tie-breaking procedures.

 

[jmt57]

While the Patriot players and coaches need to focus strictly on the next game, we as fans are afforded the luxury of looking ahead:

Chargers:
Week 13 - Sun Dec 6 - at Browns
Week 14 - Sun Dec 13 - Cowboys
Week 15 - Sun Dec 20 - Bengals
Week 16 - Fri Dec 25 - at Titans
Week 17 - Sun Jan 3 - Redskins

Bengals:
Week 13 - Sun Dec 6 - Lions
Week 14 - Sun Dec 13 - at Vikings
Week 15 - Sun Dec 20 - at Chargers
Week 16 - Sun Dec 27 - Chiefs
Week 17 - Sun Jan 3 - at Jets

In addition to the 'any given Sunday' concept, the Chargers have three tough games in a row: Dallas, Cincy, and at Tennessee. The Bengals only have two tough games, but those are both on the road: at Minnesota and at San Diego. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Chargers and the Bengals both lose two games to finish 11-5 while the Patriots - who should be favored in each of their remaining games - could win out to finish 12-4 and avoid any tiebreaker scenario while claiming the #2 seed.

Obviously there are countless other possibilities as well; just suggesting that there's just as much of a chance the Pats finish with the #2 seed as there is for them finishing with the #4 seed.

Of course the one thing the Pats need to avoid is for the Bengals to have to lose in week 17. I'd say it is safe to say that if that is the case the Jets would start players like Vernon Gholston while sitting players like Darrele Revis.

 

[Patspsycho]

Also cannot ignore our 24-2 record in December since '03.

 

[Skeeter712]

Colts- 1
Chargers- 2
Bengals- 3
PATRIOTS- 4
Broncos- 5
Ravens- 6

Chargers beat Bengals and Bengals lose to Minnesota.

 

[Patspsycho]

Colts- 1
Chargers- 2
Bengals- 3
PATRIOTS- 4
Broncos- 5
Ravens- 6

Chargers beat Bengals and Bengals lose to Minnesota.

No way Pats end up #4 if Bengals lose 2 games as you suggest.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

This team is really not good enough to get a bye,luck is needed there as Cincy and SD would have to go on a bad streak for this to happen.

Reality says the Patriots drop another game down the road to finish at 11-5 and are the
#4 seed probably to face Pittsburgh or Denver

 

[Jimke]

What is your argument for this? Or is that just an assumption?

The Patriots longest winning streak this year is three games (Titans,

Buccaneers, Dolphins). They have won only 1 of their last 3 games

(Jets). This leads me to believe that a five game winning streak is not

very plausible. Wins against the Panthers and Bills are probable but wins

against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Texans are not in the bag.

The fact that Belichick has a terrific December record is not as much

of a factor as people believe. Belichick's Patriots had never allowed

5 touchdown passes in a game or lost a game entering the 4th period

with a big lead until this year.

 

[Patspsycho]

This team is really not good enough to get a bye,luck is needed there as Cincy and SD would have to go on a bad streak for this to happen.

Reality says the Patriots drop another game down the road to finish at 11-5 and are the
#4 seed probably to face Pittsburgh or Denver

Not if they win in Miami.

 

[Patspsycho]

The Patriots longest winning streak this year is three games (Titans,

Buccaneers, Dolphins). They have won only 1 of their last 3 games

(Jets). This leads me to believe that a five game winning streak is not

very plausible. Wins against the Panthers and Bills are probable but wins

against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Texans are not in the bag.

The fact that Belichick has a terrific December record is not as much

of a factor as people believe. Belichick's Patriots had never allowed

5 touchdown passes in a game or lost a game entering the 4th period

with a big lead until this year.

Not much of a factor? something that's been around since '03 is not a factor? I don't agree with that. Even with Cassel last year, we did very well in December.

 

[jmt57]

The Patriots longest winning streak this year is three games (Titans, Buccaneers, Dolphins). They have won only 1 of their last 3 games (Jets). This leads me to believe that a five game winning streak is not very plausible. Wins against the Panthers and Bills are probable but wins against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Texans are not in the bag.

The fact that Belichick has a terrific December record is not as much of a factor as people believe. Belichick's Patriots had never allowed 5 touchdown passes in a game or lost a game entering the 4th period with a big lead until this year.

What's the saying, 'past performance does not guarantee future results', or something like that? I don't quite follow the theory that because a team does not already have a five-game win streak this season, that means they won't or can't now. If that's the case, how do you explain the Titans' season?

Reality is the the two difficult stretches in the Pats' schedule are now in the past. Or look at it this way; the '08 team was unable to win more than two in a row at this time last year, and they only did that twice. Yet they finished with four wins in a row. So how could they possibly have done that when they hadn't done it all season at that point, and were only 7-5 at the time?

Obviously there are areas that the team needs to improve upon (which have been talked about in great detail in other threads) if they are to win these last five games. But I just can't buy the argument that it can't be done because they haven't won five in a row already this year. I'd be willing to bet that most winning streaks in the NFL of four or more games are not preceded by another winning streak of the same length by that team that season.

 

[Rob0729]

The Patriots longest winning streak this year is three games (Titans,

Buccaneers, Dolphins). They have won only 1 of their last 3 games

(Jets). This leads me to believe that a five game winning streak is not

very plausible. Wins against the Panthers and Bills are probable but wins

against the Dolphins, Jaguars, and Texans are not in the bag.

The fact that Belichick has a terrific December record is not as much

of a factor as people believe. Belichick's Patriots had never allowed

5 touchdown passes in a game or lost a game entering the 4th period

with a big lead until this year.

The Pats lost two of the last three because two of the teams they faced in the last three are a combined record of 22-0. Their last 5 games have a combined 24 wins. So the five teams the Pats have left have two more wins than the team that the Pats have lost to the past three weeks.

The next five weeks is the easiest stretch on their schedule. They face one team with a winning record as of right now and that is the Jags at 6-5. Their last four games could be all but officially eliminated from the playoffs. If the Panthers lose this weekend and the Eagles and Packers win, the best he can do is tie either of them at 8-8 for a Wild Card spot and it is unlikely 8-8 will be enough to get in. If the Bills lose either of the next two weeks, they best they can get is to 8-8 and that is not going to get in. The best that Jacksonville has 5 losses and has Houston, Miami, and Indy before they play the Pats (all could be losses). Houston has 6 losses and has Jacksonville, Seattle, St. Louis, and Miami before they play the Pats and one more loss may have them out of the playoffs before they play the Pats.

I think your streaks are misleading since the Pats's schedule was front and middle loaded with their toughest opponents (Baltimore, Atlanta, Denver, Indy, and New Orleans). They may not face another team with realistic playoff hopes for the rest of the season.