Absurdly Early (December 1) 2010 Offseason and Mock

[mayoclinic]

It's absurdly early, but after last night and with the college football regular season almost over and the NFL season starting to take shape, I thought I would make a 1st cut at looking forward to what some of our offseason moves and the draft could possibly look like. It's impossible to predict what the Pats will do the day of the draft, much less almost 5 months in advance. The purpose of this exercise is not to predict what will actually happen, but to start to get an idea of who is out there, what teams' needs are, what general direction things could possibly take, and throw out some ideas. Don't get too caught up on the specific choices.

Predictions:

- Pats finish 12-4 and end up the #3 seed in the AFC. NO beats San Diego in the SB.
- Pats bring in a new OC and DC.

Offseason Needs:

1. The pass rush.
2. Bolster the OL.
3. Bolster the DL.
4. Depth at RB, WR and TE.

Assumptions:

- Pats re-sign/tag Vince Wilfork, Logan Mankins, Leigh Bodden, Ben Watson and Stefan Gostkowski.
- Pats release or do not re-sign Jarvis Green, Stephen Neal, Shawn Springs, and Pierre Woods. None are worth their current $.
- Kevin Faulk is either not resigned or is extended at low cost.
- Adalius Thomas is either traded, cut, or his contract is restructured. Derrick Burgess is probably gone too, though if Thomas is cut we might keep Burgess if he will sign for reasonable money.
- With all our key re-signings and the likely restrictions in an uncapped year on signing external free agents, I don't see us being active in FA.

I've also incuded several potential trades for the Pats. Not saying any of these will happen, but the point in this mock is mainly to throw out ideas.

1. Pats trade Matt Light to KC for KC's 2010 3rd round pick. With Sebastian Vollmer emerging as a dominant LT, the aging Light is expendable. KC needs an OT, and Pioli and Cassel know Light, who can step in from day 1. This would allow KC to use their first 2 picks on playmakers for their defense.
2. Pats trade James Sanders to Denver for Denver's 2010 3rd round pick. Broncos need depth at safety. Renaldo Hill will be 31 and Brian Dawkins 36. Sanders is young, can play SS and FS, is capable of starting, and has a relatively cheap contract. McDaniels likes to pick up Pats guys that he knows. With Meriweather, McGowan and Chung, I could see the Pats trading James Sanders to free up money and let him get more playing time elsewhere.
3. Pats trade Adalius Thomas to Atlanta for Atlanta's 2011 2nd round pick. Falcon's need depth at OLB and DE, and Dimitroff knows what Thomas can provide in terms of versatility. Falcon's traded their 2010 2nd rounder for Tony Gonzalez, so they might be willing to do the same for Thomas.

I could also see the Pats trading back from the 1st round, or even trading the pick into 2011, if they don't think there is adequate value. I could even see the Pats trading for Julius Peppers (I could see BB preferring a vet), but I don't see how to make the money work.

One other major assumption: for this mock I've assumed that all draft eligible juniors declare. This obviously won't happen, but with record numbers likely to declare given the possibility of a 2011 lockout/rookie salary scale, I see no reason at this point to exclude anyone.

So, without further ado, on to the draft (juniors noted with an *). Because of the 10,000 character limit, I've had to spread this over several posts.

2010 Mock Draft

Round 1

1. St. Louis (1-15): Jake Locker*, QB, Washington
Rams built their O-line last year, now they go after a franchise QB. I think Locker will be the best pro QB out of this group.

2. Tampa Bay (1-15): Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
TB gets it's cornerstone defensive player. Can't go wrong with Suh.

3. Cleveland (1-15): Casey Clausen*, QB, Notre Dame
Quinn and Anderson aren't the answer. Browns go to Notre Dame again for a QB, hoping for better success.

4. Detroit (2-14): Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma St.
Lions get a solid LT to protect Matt Stafford. Okung and Cherilous will make nice bookend tackles.

5. Oakland (2-14): Gerald McCoy*, DT, Oklahoma.
Raiders get a penetrating DT in the Warren Sapp mold, to pair with Richard Seymour (if he stays). Taylor Mays, Carlos Dunlap, Brian Bulaga and Bruce Campbell are also options. You never know what Crazy Al will do.

6. Kansas City (4-12): Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee
KC needs O-line help but gets it via trade with the Pats so that they can add the premier defensive playmaker in the draft.

7. Washington (5-11): Brian Bulaga*, OT, Iowa
With Locker and Clausen off the board, Washington has to go OT here to replace Chris Samuels. Bulaga should do the job. Dan Snyder could go for Sam Bradford here, but I think OL makes more sense.

8. Buffalo (6-10): Sam Bradford*, QB, Oklahoma
Edwards and Fitzpatrick aren't going to win many games. Bills gamble on Bradford. The Bills could go OT here, but there's nice depth in this draft, and Ralph Wilson wants a franchise QB to build around.

9. Tennessee (6-10) -> Joe Haden*, CB, Florida
Wanted Suh badly, but settles for the best CB in the draft. DE Derrick Morgan may be an option as well.

10. San Francisco (from Carolina (7-9)): Rolando McClain*, ILB, Alabama
McClain and Willis will terrorize opposing offenses for years. Wish we could have paired him with Mayo. Derrick Morgan could be the pick here was well.

11. Seattle (7-9): Bruce Campbell*, OT, Maryland
Walter Jones retires, and Seattle replaces him with an athletic OT who could just possibly become another Jones.

12. Miami (7-9): Dez Bryant*, WR, Oklahoma St.
Miami desperately needs receivers for Henne to stretch the field and provide some big-play capability.

13. Jacksonville (8-8): Derrick Morgan*, DE, Georgia Tech
Jags are thrilled to get the best DE in the draft. An unstoppable force. Harvey and Morgan should be nasty.

14. Chicago (7-9) -> Denver: Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama
Broncos get a mountain of a man to anchor the middle of their 3-4.

15. San Francisco (8-8): Taylor Mays, S, USC
SF needs OL help, but can't resist the size/speed of Mays. OT Anthony Davis might be an option here as well.

16. NY Jets (8-8): Carlos Dunlap*, DE, Ohio St.
Jets take a 6'6" 290# physical freak and try to get him to play 3-4 DE, where he's not at all suited. Cameron Heyward could be the pick here as well.

17. Atlanta (9-7): Greg Hardy, DE, Mississippi. Falcons get a pass rusher to complement John Abraham. Brandon Graham will also get consideration. A LB like Travis Lewis or a DB could also be the pick here.

18. Houston (9-7): Jason Pierre-Paul*, DE, USF.
Pierre-Paul is raw but has huge upside, and should give Houston another freak opposite Mario Williams. S Earl Williams is also an option.

19. Baltimore (9-7): Damian Williams, WR, USC
With Derrick Mason close to retirement, Baltimore needs youth at WR. TE and CB are also options here. Jermaine Gresham is also tempting.

20. NY Giants (9-7): Earl Williams*, S, Texas With Kenny Phillips' future in doubt and a porous secondary, the Giants need help quickly. Williams makes plays. Greg Hardy could also be an option here if he falls.

21. Arizona (10-6): Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas
Kindle will wow people at the combine, and the Cards think he will fit in nicely in their hybrid scheme.

22. Dallas (10-6): Anthony Davis*, OT, Rutgers.
Flozell Adams will be 35. Dallas gets a massive LT to groom as his replacement. Cowboys like big lineman, and Davis should be good. If Taylor Mays falls, he's a Cowboy.

23. Seattle (from Denver (10-6)): Ryan Mallet*, QB, Arkansas
After going OL, Hawks get the 6'7" raw but strong-armed Mallet as the future successor to the 6'8" Matt Hasselbach.

24. Pittsburgh (10-6): Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Iupati will be a beast for the Steelers, and will pair with Willie Colon on the right side. OG/CMaurkice Pouncey could be the pick as well. DB could also be an option here.

25. Green Bay (11-5): Charles Brown, OT, USC
Another Trojan - Green Bay needs to protect Rogers. Brown is probably the best ZBS tackle prospect in this draft.

26. Philadelphia (11-5): CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
With Bryan Westbrook's career in doubt, Philly gets a replacement in the versatile, speedy Spiller. DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Spiller give Phill incredible speed on offense. DE could also be an option.

27. New England (12-4): Cameron Heyward*,DE, Ohio St.
The son of Ironhead is a young Richard Seymour at 6'6" 290#.

28. Cincinnati (12-4): Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma
Carson Palmer gets an elite weapon to add to his arsenal. Gresham will help stretch the field.

29. Minnesota (14-2): Brandon Graham, DE, Michigan.
Minny gets a pass rusher to pair with Jason Allen. Everson Griffen could be the choice here too, or Greg Hardy if he slips, but Graham is making a strong case as one of the best DEs in the country.

30. Indianapolis (15-1): Travis Lewis*, LB, Oklahoma
Undersized playmaker who covers a lot of ground. Top 15 talent who slips because of his position. OT is a need, but Lewis is just too good to pass up, and there's enough depth to go OT in round 2. DT Brian Price will also get consideration.

31. San Diego (12-4): Arthur Jones, DE, Syracuse.
San Diego desperately needs 3-4 DEs, and with Heyward gone Jones is the best available prospect. Allen Bailey might be an alternative.

32. New Orleans (15-1): Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri
Saints are elated to get Weatherspoon here. Will be a nice complement to Jonathan Vilma, and a big upgrade at WLB.

 

[mayoclinic]

Part II

Round 2

33. St. Louis: Everson Griffen*, DE, USC
Rams get a fast, athletic pass rusher to pair with Chris Long.

34. Tampa Bay: Navorro Bowman, LB*, Penn St.
Agile playmaker with a nose for the ball is perfect for the Tampa-2 . Should make a ton of tackles behind Suh.

35. Cleveland: Donovan Warren, CB, Michigan
Browns need help everywhere, including CB. Brandon Ghee is an alternative.

36. Detroit: Brian Price*, DT, UCLA.
DT is a major need, and Price is the best 4-3 DT not named Suh or McCoy, a potential top 20 guy.

37. Oakland: Jahvid Best*, RB, Cal
Al Davis loves speed. Best should be a playmaker in the DeSean Jackson mold. Slips because of concussion concerns.

38. Kansas City: Jerry Hughes, DE/OLB, TCU
Pioli gets a pass rushing terror and a 3-4 OLB with a non-stop motor. QB pressure should generate opportunities for Eric Berry.

39. Washington: Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati
Jason Campbell at QB is done. Washington tries again with the tall, talented, strong armed Pike.

40. Buffalo: Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
Bills OL needs an anchor. Williams is more of an RT, but is good value here.

41. New England (from Tennessee): Maurkice Pouncey*, C, Florida
Dan Koppen will be 31 and can't handle the big NTs. Pouncey will be a force in the middle. Jerry Hughes might have been the pick.

42. Carolina: Brandon LaFell, WR, LSU
Carolina needs playmakers at WR. LaFell is nice value. Golden Tate or Aurelius Benn could be an option as well.

43. Seattle: Jonathan Dwyer*, RB, Georgia Tech
With OT and QB taken care of, Seattle completes rebuilding its offense. Dwyer is a power back who has breakaway capability. Ryan Mathews could be an option.

44. Miami: Ricky Sapp, DE/OLB, Clemson.
Parcells gets a fast, athletic speed rushing 3-4 OLB. Eric Norwood, Von Miller, or a DE like Jared Odrick might also be options here.

45. New England (from Jacksonville): Joseph Barksdale,* OT, LSU
Pats get a talented tackle with great feet/power who should do for RT what Sebastian Vollmer is doing at LT. Gabe Carimi is also an option.

46. Tampa Bay (from Chicago): Demaryius Williams*, WR, Georgia Tech.
Bucs get a big, athletic WR with tremendous upside. Aurelius Benn might also be an option.

47. San Francisco: Gabe Carimi,* OT, Wisconsin
Powerful RT to pair with Joe Staley. A 3-4 DE like Jared Odrick or a 3-4 rush LB like Eric Norwood or Von Miller might also be options.

48. NY Jets: Brandon Ghee, CB, Wake Forresty
Jets need a CB to pair with Revis. DT Dan Williams could be the pick as an eventual successor to Kris Jenkins.

49. Kansas City (from Atlanta): Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee
KC needs a true NT to make the 3-4 work. Chiefs are elated to get Dan Williams here. Brandon Spikes could also be an option.

50. Houston: Golden Tate*, WR, Notre Dame
Houston needs a receiving threat opposite Andre Johnson. Tate is a playmaker. Rejus Benn could also be the pick.

51. Baltimore: Brandon Spikes, ILB, Florida
Ravens desperately need corner help, but Spikes is too good to pass up here. They will groom Spikes to succeed Rey Lewis.

52. NY Giants: Aaron Hernandez*, TE, Florida
In a bit o a surprise pick, the Giants get an athletic young TE who can both block and catch. A defensive end is always an option.

53. Arizona: Aurelius Benn*, WR, Illinois
Anquan Boldin is probably gone. Benn is a similar style big WR who can make the catch over the middle.

b]54. Dallas: Morgan Burnett, S, Georgia Tech.[/b]
Dallas gets a playmaker for the secondary. Chad Jones, Reshad Jones, or Nate Allen could also be options.

55. Denver: Allen Bailey*, DE, Miami
A steal this late. First round ability, with great speed for a 3-4 DE. Should be spectacular next to Mount Cody.

56. Pittsburgh: Chad Jones, FS, LSU
With Ryan Clark a FA the Steelers get a big playmaking safety to pair with Troy Polamalu. Reshad Jones might be an alternative.

57. Green Bay: Jared Odrick, DE, Penn St.
Solid 3-4 DE to help anchor the line. If SF takes Odrick, GB could take Carimi here, as they need lots of OL help.

58. Philadelphia: Jeremy Beal*, DE, Oklahoma.
Philly takes a Trent Cole clone to play RT. Greg Romeus could be the pick here as well.

59. New England: Greg Romeus*, DE, Pittsburgh.
Pats get a 6'5" 265# guy with power and speed who can rush the passer, set the edge, pursue, and drop into coverage. Jeremy Beal would have been an option, and Eric Norwood will probably also get consideration.

60. Cincinnati: Eric Norwood, DE/OLB, South Carolina
Norwood is a steal here, and can play SAM for the Bengals with Maualuga moving inside and Rivers at WLB.

61. Minnesota: Reshad Jones, S, Georgia
Rangy centerfielder at FS to replace what the Vikes haven't head since Darren Sharper.

62. Indianapolis: Jason Fox, OT, Miami
Tony Ugoh hasn't worked out and Charlie Johnson is a FA. Colts wanted Barksdale, but Fox is solid and good value here. Jeff Linkenbach is another otion.

63. San Diego: Ryan Mathews*, RB, Fresno St.
With LaDanian Tomlinson likely to retire the Chargers get a back with a similar style to complement Darren Sproles.

64. New Orleans: Marvin Austin*, DT, North Carolina.
Saints are elated to get Austin this late. He and Sedrick Ellis should make a dynamic tandem in the middle of the DL.

Round 3

65. St. Louis: Bruce Carter, OLB, North Carolina
Rams get a rangy OLB to put next to James Laurinaitis.

66. Tampa Bay: Ras-I Dowling*, CB, Virginia
Bucs need a CB to pair with Aqib Talib, and are thrilled that Dowling is still available.

67. Cleveland: Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford
With Jamal Lewis retiring, Cleveland gets a big, powerful back to pound the ball.

68. Detroit: Mike Johnson, OG, Alabama
Lions get more line help to protect Matt Stafford. Jon Jansen is 33. Detroit is now set at OL. Vladimir Ducasse or Mike Pouncey might be an option here.

69. Oakland: Von Miller*, OLB, Texas A&M
Speedy, undersized pass rusher in the Elvis Dumervil mold.

70. New England (from Kansas City): Austen Lane, DE, Murray State/b]
Bit of a surprise pick here. Pats take another 6'5" 265# guy with great agility who has drawn comparisons to Jason Taylor and Mathias Kiwanuka.

71. Washington: Kyle Calloway, OT, Iowa
Skins re-unite Bulaga and Calloway, and immediately fix their biggest problem. Tony Pike should be happy.

72. Buffalo: Jeff Linkenbach, OT, Cinncinnati
Linkenbach and Williams will make solid bookends to protect Sam Bradford. With Wood and Levitre on the interior, Bills have the nucleus of a strong young OL.

73. Tennessee: Adrian Clayborn*, DE, Iowa
Titans get a steal in the big, strong, playmaking Clayborn this late.

74. Carolina: Nate Allen, S, USF
Centerfielding FS with great range. Terrific value here.

75. Philadelphia (from Seattle): Darrell Stuckey, S, Kansas
Depth in the secondary.

76. Miami: Brandon Lang, DE/OLB, Troy
Sapp and Lang should provide some nice pressure.

77. Jacksonville: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Jags take the local hero, but not with their 1st round pick.

78. Chicago: Marshawn Gilyard, WR
Cutler needs receivers. Badly. Gilyard will be a playmaker.

79. San Francisco: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Aaron Smith isn't the answer. Singletary likes McCoy's leadership and intangibles.

80. Cleveland (from NY Jets): Vince Oghobasse, DE, Duke

81. Atlanta: Sean Lee, LB, Penn St.
Falcons get a rangy playmaker to go next to Curtis Lofton. Roderick Muckelroy could also be the choice.

82. Houston: Anthony Dixon, RB, Mississippi
Houston gets a big, bruising back to pair with Steve Slayton.

83. Baltimore: Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida St.
Ravens need CB help badly. Robinson could easily go much earlier.

84. NY Giants: Daryl Washington, ILB, TCU
Washington makes plays all over the field, and will eventually take over for Antonio Pierce.

85. Arizona: Shaun Lauavau, OG, Arizona
Cards take a local prospect to upgrade their interior line.

86. Dallas: Vladimir Ducasse, OT/OG, UMass.
Cowboys get more line help. Anthony Davis and Ducasse are massive.

87. NE (from Denver): Mike Pouncey*, OG, Florida
Pats re-unite the Pouncey twins. Vladimir Ducasse or Jon Asamoah could also be options.

88. Pittsburgh: Phil Taylor* DT, Baylor
With Casey Hampton possibly gone, Steelers take a massive NT for insurance.

89. Green Bay: Trevard Lindley, CB, South Carolina.
With Harris and Woodson aging, depth at CB is needed.

90. Philadelphia: Philadelphia: Jeff Owens, DT, Georgia.
Provides nice depth at DT.

91. Oakland (from New England): Jevan Snead*, QB, Mississippi
With Jamarcus Russell looking more and more like a bust, Oakland rolls the dice again on an underachieving QB once thought to be a top 10 pick.

92. Cincinnati: Tyson Ayualu, DT, Cal
Bengals need depth at DT. Ayualu is fantastic value.

93. Minnesota: Syd'Quan Thompson, CB,Cal
Vikings need depth at DB.

94. Indianapolis: Jermaine Cunningham, DE, Florida
Just what Indy needs, another undersized, speedy, playmaking DE.

95. San Diego: Kam Chancellor, S, Virginia Tech
Chargers need help at SS, and take a physical guy with LB size.

96. New Orleans: Noel Devine*, RB, West Virginia
With Reggie Bush' contract exceeding his value, the Saints reload with an incredibly elusive all-purpose back, who will give opponents fits.

 

[mayoclinic]

Part III

Round 4

97. St. Louis: Akwasi Owusu-Ansah, CB, Indiana-Pa.
Small school CB is rated a 2nd rounder by some. Perrish Cox could also be an option.

98. Tampa Bay: Chris Marinelli, OT, Stanford.
Outstanding value in the 4th round, could end up starting at LT for the Bucs.

99. Cleveland: Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas.
Big receiver to replace Braylon Edwards. Terrific value in the 4th round.

100. Detroit: Greg Jones, ILB.
Undersized but very athletic. Should form a nice LB corps with Julian Peterson and Ernie Sims.

101. Oakland: Cameron Jordan*, DE, Cal.
Son of former TE Seteven Jordan has a ton of upside.

102. Kansas City: Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri.
6'5" big possession WR should provide a nice complement to Bowe. Desmond Briscoe could be the pick here.

103. Washington: Kris O'Dowd*, C, USC.
More upgrade for the OL, O'Dowd should eventually succeed Casey Rabach. Could go much higher.

104. Buffalo: Roderick Muckelroy, LB, Texas.
Rangy LB who covers a lot of ground, should complement Paul Posluszny nicely.

105. Tennessee: D'Anthony Smith, DT, Louisiana Tech.
Intriguing prospect with a lot of upside.

108. Carolina: Michael Morgan*, OLB, USC.
Fast OLB with terrific range should be a nice complement to Jon Beason.

107. Seattle: Jon Asamoah, OG, Illinois.
Bruce Campbell and Asamoah should shore up the left side of Seattle's line considerably.

109. Miami: Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa.
With Akim Ayodele over 30, the Phish get a youthful playmaker at the ILB position.

106. Jacksonville: Stefan Wisniewski*, C, Penn St.
Jax took Eugene Monroe and Eben Britten last year to shore up the tackles. Now they address the interior line with an eventual successor to Brad Meester.

110. Chicago: Sam Young, OT, Notre Dame.
Solid RT prospect allows Chris Williams to move to LT to replace Orlando Pace.

111. San Francisco: George Selvie, DE/OLB, USF.
Selvie falls, and SF gets an undersized pass rusher with a non-stop motor.

112. Philadelphia (from NY Jets): Eric Decker, WR, Minnesota.
Decker falls because of injury. Nice over the middle big WR to complement DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin.

113. Atlanta: Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama.
Falcons are elated to get Jackson this late. Outstanding value in an area of need.

114. Houston: Matt Tennant, C, Boston College.
Undersized but powerful blocker. A steal here.

115. Baltimore: Ed ****son, TE, Oregon.
Ravens need depth at TE, in the Todd Heap mold. ****son could go much higher.

119. ]NY Giants: Perish Cox, CB, Oklahoma St.U
Speedy CB and return man will add much needed depth to the secondary.

120. Arizona: Boo Robinson, DT, Wake Forest.
Explosive DT to eventually replace 35 year old Bryan Robinson. Can play both DT and NT.

121. Dallas: O'Brien Schofield, DE/OLB, Wisconsin.
Provides depth for the pass rush.

122. Denver: Selvish Capers, OT, West Virginia.
Capers is an athletic OT who should excel in Denver's ZBS and give nice depth behind Clady and Harris.

123. Pittsburgh: Myron Lewis, CB, Vanderbilt.
Provides nice depth at CB, could probably also play FS.

124. Green Bay: Jason Worilds*, DE/OLB, Virginia Tech.
Depth at 3-4 OLB.

121. Philadelphia: Anthony McCoy, TE, USC.
Nice athletic TE with good fundamentals.

128. NE: Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi
Pats get a replacement for Kevin Faulk in the speedy, elusive McCluster, who could go much higher if he runs a 4.3 40.

124. Cincinnati: Kase Keenum, QB, Houston.
Development QB for depth behind Carson Palmer.

127. Minnesota: Zane Beadles, OG, Utah.
Should eventually be an upgrade over 30 year old Anthony Herrera at RG. Sergio Render, Mich Petrus or Vladimir Ducasse are alternatives at OG.125. Indianapolis: Mike Neal, DT, Purdue.
Colts always need help at DT. Neal is outstanding value this late.

120. San Diego: Desmond Brizcoe, WR, Kansas
Another target for Rivers.

126. New Orleans: Adam Ulatowski, OT, Texas.
Eventual replacement for Jon Stinchcomb at RT.

Again, the specific picks are a crapshoot this early, and the purpose of this mock is more for fun and to get a sense of who's out there and what team need are then to pretend to predict what might happen.

Pats Offseason Draft and Roster Changes

Full Pats 7 Round Mock

1(27) Cameron Heyward*, DE, Ohio St. Alternatives: Allen Bailey, Arthur Jones.
2(41) Maurkice Pouncey*, OC, Florida. Alternative: Mike Iupati, Gabe Carimi.
2(45) Joseph Barksdale*, OT, LSU. Alternative: Gabe Carimi.
2(59) Greg Romeus*, DE/OLB, Pittsburgh. Alternative: Jeremy Beal.
3(70) Austen Lane, DE/OLB,
3(90) Mike Pouncey*, OG, Florida. Alternatives: Vladimir Ducasse, Jon Asamoah, Mike Johnson.
4(128) Dexter MicCluster, RB, Mississippi.
6 Jimmy Graham, TE, Miami: A 6'8" athletic former basketball player who will make a nice red zone target for Brady.
7 LeGarrette Blount, RB, Oregon - Pats take a gamble on a big, pounding back. Blount, Maroney and Devine should be a nice backfield for the future.

Absurdly Early Possible 53 Man Roster

QB(2): Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer
RB(5): Lawrence Maroney, Fred Taylor, Sammie Morris, Dexter McCluster, LeGarrette Blount
WR(6): Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, Isaiah Stanbeck, Sam Aiken
TE(3): Ben Watson, Chris Baker, Jimmy Graham
OT(4): Sebastian Vollmer, Nick Kaczur, Joseph Barksdale, Mark LeVoir
OG/C(5): Logan Mankins, Dan Koppen, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Pouncey, Rich Ohrenberger

DL(6): Vince Wilfork, Ty Warren, Cameron Heyward, Mike Wright, Ron Brace, Myron Pryor
DE/OLB(2): Greg Romeus, Austen Lane
OLB(3): Tully Banta-Cain, Shawn Crable, Rob Ninkovich
ILB(4): Jerod Mayo, Gary Guyton, Tyrone McKenzie, Eric Alexander
S(4): Brandon Meriweather, Brandon McGowan, Patrick Chung, Brad Lockett
CB(5): Darius Butler, Leigh Bodden, Jonathan Wilhite, Terrance Wheatley, Kyle Arrington

K: Stephan Gostkowski
P: Chris Hanson
LS: Jake Ingram
Specialist: Matt Slater

Comments

I've included all draft eligible juniors in this early draft. Obviously, not all wiil declare. Nevertheless, I think a record number will come out with the prospect of a rookie salary scale in 2011. The most interesting thing about this early draft is that there were way too many guys to fit into the available slot. There are 2nd and even borderline 1st round talents going in the 3rd and 4th round. This should be a very deep draft. The point of doing a mock this early was not to actually predict the choices, but to get a sense for the depth and possible overall shape of the draft.

I've focused on what I see as our 2 big needs: the defensive front 7 and pass rush, and the OL/run game. The actual picks are probably very inaccurate, but I think the general needs and type of player are what I would like to see us target. Right now I see Derrick Morgan, Cameron Heyward and Rolando McClain as they guys who would be the clearest 1st round picks, but in my mock all 3 go top 20 and I could see the Pats trading out of the 1st round if this kind of scenario happens.

This leaves the Pats with 4 first day picks in 2001, including a possible top 10 pick in what I see as a top-heavy but thin draft. Assuming a rookie salary scale, this is quite attractive. I'd like to see us get a top WR (AJ Green, Jonathan Baldwin or Michael Floyd), or possibly an impact defender like DE Robert Quinn or CB Patrick Peterson. We have the ammo to trade up if we so desire.

That's it for now. My next effort will be after the January 15 deadline for juniors to declare. We should have a much better idea by then of who is coming out and where we stand.

 

[The Intimidator]

I think we should look for an OG in earlier rounds as well. If I'm not mistaken, Stephen Neal's contract is coming up and while he's solid at times, he's far too inconsistent and injury prone. I'm not sure we bring him back. Who are some guards out there that are worth looking into?

The offensive line needs help. Vollmer is clearly the answer at LT and Mankins is great at LG. I believe Koppen's recent injury is hindering him some, he's much better than what we saw last night. Kaczur is just atrocious, I'm not sure what Belichick was thinking signing him to an extension.

It's a major problem when teams can force Brady out of the pocket with only 3 or 4 rushing the passer.

Maybe draft one with the second of the 2nd round picks with have.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think we should look for an OG in earlier rounds as well. If I'm not mistaken, Stephen Neal's contract is coming up and while he's solid at times, he's far too inconsistent and injury prone. I'm not sure we bring him back. Who are some guards out there that are worth looking into?

The offensive line needs help. Vollmer is clearly the answer at LT and Mankins is great at LG. I believe Koppen's recent injury is hindering him some, he's much better than what we saw last night. Kaczur is just atrocious, I'm not sure what Belichick was thinking signing him to an extension.

It's a major problem when teams can force Brady out of the pocket with only 3 or 4 rushing the passer.

Maybe draft one with the second of the 2nd round picks with have.

I have us taking an OG/C at 41, an OT at 45, and an OG at 90. That's not enough? I thought people would criticize me for going overboard.

 

[everlong]

14. Chicago (7-9) -> Denver: Terrance Cody, DT, Alabama
Broncos get a mountain of a man to anchor the middle of their 3-4.

Didn't Denver trade this pick, to Seattle I believe, for the Hawks pick at the top of the second round last year so they could draft Alphonso Smith?

 

[everlong]

3. Pats trade Adalius Thomas to Atlanta for Atlanta's 2011 2nd round pick. Falcon's need depth at OLB and DE, and Dimitroff knows what Thomas can provide in terms of versatility. Falcon's traded their 2010 2nd rounder for Tony Gonzalez, so they might be willing to do the same for Thomas.

There is absolutely no way anybody is giving up a second rounder for that contract given the production he's giving. It's been better since the benching but not 7M/year better. Honestly I think part of the issue is scheme and the fact that they're not putting him in the optimal position to be successful at this time in his career but that also speaks to the fact he's not the versatile play maker they thought that they were getting. Throw in Dimitroff knows the Patriots personnel as well as anybody and I don't see this one.

 

[BillBelichickFan79]

Insanely great dedication as always Mayo, good work. I like the Blount gamble I think he's got the talent to be very effective in the NFL. I like going for a replacement for Faulk and I like McCluster in college, but I'm just not sure that body can hold up in the NFL and take the pounding. Spiller is my favorite all purpose back, but we have great needs on defense than to pick him in 1st round.

I'd also like to see us add a CB. I'm not a big fan of Bodden and I'm not so sure he will be re-signed next year. I just feel like he gets beat out of cuts too much and doesn't do a good job of locating the ball. Wilhite has looked pretty good in coverage, excluding last night. He's been sticking with his man well but just needs to improve his ball skills and look back at the ball. I love Butler, I think he's a great talent and should really be a great CB for us. Wheatley I'm still hopeful for and still have faith that BB saw something in him to take him in the 2nd round. Even if he turns into a good nickelback I'd take that.

I haven't really looked at the depth at CB this year yet but my favorite CB is Haden obviously. I think Robinson is overrated. My favorite CB in all of college is Patrick Peterson but we'd have to wait until 2011 to have a shot at him. Going into next year I'd like to have Wilhite, Butler, Wheatley, Arrington, and a draftee or FA like Carlos Rogers or maybe Richard Marshall.

 

[mayoclinic]

Didn't Denver trade this pick, to Seattle I believe, for the Hawks pick at the top of the second round last year so they could draft Alphonso Smith?

No. Denver traded their own 1st round pick to Seattle for #37 in the 2nd round in order to get Alphonso Smith. I have Seattle using that pick (#23) to draft QB Ryan Mallet.

 

[everlong]

No. Denver traded their own 1st round pick to Seattle for #37 in the 2nd round in order to get Alphonso Smith. I have Seattle using that pick (#23) to draft QB Ryan Mallet.

Ah my bad I knew there was something like that.

 

[ayjackson]

Let's go back to my place, Pouncey Pouncey!

 

[mayoclinic]

Ah my bad I knew there was something like that.

No problem. And you're probably right about the Thomas trade, but I was throwing out ideas and trying to generate discussion. And who knows what someone will offer - AD can still be a very good player, and might do better in a different system and with a change.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some updates:

1. Texas safety Earl Thomas (mistaken listed as Earl Williams, going #20 to the Giants) has reportedly announced that he will be staying at Texas. That would change, but seems unlikely.

2. Carlos Dunlap was arrested for DUI early Tuesday morning, and has been suspended indefinitely by Urban Meyer, and will miss the SEC championship game against Alabama. That could drop him a lot, possibly to the Pats or even to the 2nd round.

 

[mayoclinic]

With Dunlap's DUI, I could see him dropping to the bottom of the 1st round. I don't know if BB thinks he could play the elephant, but if he did and if he thought (after discussion with Urban Meyer) that the DUI and consistency issues could be addressed, then I could see the following happening, as an alternative scenario:

I. Jets take DE Cameron Heyward #16. I hate this pick, as I think Heyward will be a stud 3-4 DE.
II. Pats take:

1(29) Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB, Florida. In the Julius Peppers mold if he plays to his potential.
2(41) OG/C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida.
2(45) Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU.
2(trade up from 59) DE Allen Bailey, Miami. A 6'4" 290# physical freak who is my #2 3-4 DE prospect after Cameron Heyward.

And the remainder of the draft unchanged. The order of the first 4 picks might move around some. Warren, Wilfork, Bailey and Dunlap would be an interest front 4. Vollmer, Mankins, Pouncey, Pouncey and Barksdale would eventually form a tremendous OL.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Great dedication and it's exciting to see where things might shake out.

One nitpick is that you've got Dunlap listed as being from Ohio St on the 1st round picks.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great dedication and it's exciting to see where things might shake out.

One nitpick is that you've got Dunlap listed as being from Ohio St on the 1st round picks.

Thanks for the correction. I had Heyward going to the Jets in an earlier version, and then changed it.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

With Dunlap's DUI, I could see him dropping to the bottom of the 1st round. I don't know if BB thinks he could play the elephant, but if he did and if he thought (after discussion with Urban Meyer) that the DUI and consistency issues could be addressed, then I could see the following happening, as an alternative scenario:

I. Jets take DE Cameron Heyward #16. I hate this pick, as I think Heyward will be a stud 3-4 DE.
II. Pats take:

1(29) Carlos Dunlap, DE/OLB, Florida. In the Julius Peppers mold if he plays to his potential.
2(41) OG/C Maurkice Pouncey, Florida.
2(45) Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU.
2(trade up from 59) DE Allen Bailey, Miami. A 6'4" 290# physical freak who is my #2 3-4 DE prospect after Cameron Heyward.

And the remainder of the draft unchanged. The order of the first 4 picks might move around some. Warren, Wilfork, Bailey and Dunlap would be an interest front 4. Vollmer, Mankins, Pouncey, Pouncey and Barksdale would eventually form a tremendous OL.

FWIW, if you look at all the OTs the Patriots have brought in since Kaczur—LeVoir, Vollmer, O'Callaghan, Britt—they seem to be looking for mammoths. I'd think that Carimi is a more likely option than Barksdale on those grounds. In any case, I'm still hoping that the Patriots can land Nate Solder this year (or next).

Also, as far as guards go, you have to consider the possibility of the Pats taking G Jon Asamoah, who's being coached by the same OL coach who coached Kaczur and Vollmer.

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, if you look at all the OTs the Patriots have brought in since Kaczur—LeVoir, Vollmer, O'Callaghan, Britt—they seem to be looking for mammoths. I'd think that Carimi is a more likely option than Barksdale on those grounds. In any case, I'm still hoping that the Patriots can land Nate Solder this year (or next).

Also, as far as guards go, you have to consider the possibility of the Pats taking G Jon Asamoah, who's being coached by the same OL coach who coached Kaczur and Vollmer.

Asamoah is certainly a possibility. I like Mike Pouncey better. And I'm not sure "coached Nick Kaczur" is a recommendation, though having coached Vollmer is.

Carimi is certainly an option, but I think Barksdale has plenty of size (6'5" 315#) and much better footwork than Carimi, who is limited in space and might have to move inside. He's certainly no more than a pure RT, whereas Barksdale has the footwork to play LT as well as RT. And from the film I've watched of Barksdale, he really latches on to his man and doesn't let go, both in pass coverage and in run blocking. He gets to the second level very quickly and absolutely dominates his guy. JMHO.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Asamoah is certainly a possibility. I like Mike Pouncey better. And I'm not sure "coached Nick Kaczur" is a recommendation, though having coached Vollmer is.

Rightly or wrongly, the Patriots do actually like Kaczur.

Carimi is certainly an option, but I think Barksdale has plenty of size (6'5" 315#) and much better footwork than Carimi, who is limited in space and might have to move inside. He's certainly no more than a pure RT, whereas Barksdale has the footwork to play LT as well as RT. And from the film I've watched of Barksdale, he really latches on to his man and doesn't let go, both in pass coverage and in run blocking. He gets to the second level very quickly and absolutely dominates his guy. JMHO.

Fair enough, though, as said before, I'd prefer Solder to either. In any case, I don't think the Pats see OT as that high a need.

 

[mayoclinic]

Fair enough, though, as said before, I'd prefer Solder to either. In any case, I don't think the Pats see OT as that high a need.

Solder's a physical specimen, but he hasn't played up to his potential so far. Anyway, to each his own. Barksdale is the closest thing I have to a RT "binky" so far.

I'm not sure how the Pats rate OT, but I see upgrading the right side of the line as a major priority. Vollmer has been a revelation this year, and I for one am tired of seeing opposing OLs push the right side of our line around. I'm hoping Matt Light will move over to RT for the remainder of the year, but I don't see him as a long term solution. I see Kaczur as the James Sanders of the OL - the Pats also liked Sanders, but were perfectly happy to see him become #4 on the depth chart instead of #2.